This is my first post here on WOV; but, I'm no newbie. I first came across WOV back in late 2006 or early 2007. At that time, I was briefly looking into BS after seeing the MIT documentary on the History Channel. I was Infatuated with learning to play blackjack as an AP. I thought "this is exactly how I want to live my life". I had a lot to learn, and it took years to learn it, on my own - threw other members kind and helpful postings of course.
Fast forward 8-9 years and I find myself crushed after a 110k loss over 4 days... (550 unit loss - not unheard of, not out of the ordinary, but OWW!!) Very disheartening when my RoR = >1%... The hardest part about being an AP, is being on your own with no investors and no team mates, meaning on a good day, you reap the rewards, but over a few days like I just had, you suffer the consequences. I'm in this game for the long haul, and I measure my results with EV vs. $$$ extracted, but I must admit, scaling back due to negative variance is a pain in the @ss. I understand that I was willing to take the risk to grow, but damn, damn, damn.... I sure feel like It's tough to find people that can relate to this on a larger scale. (P.S. of course I've witnessed such terrible losing streaks on low limit tables. I.E. $5-$100).
I'm not looking for sorrow from others, but I'm curious if anyone else can relate to this, and share some hope or perspective.
P.S. I grew fast in a financial sense... starting at $3,000 and turning it into over $245,000.00 in just 15 months; I also realize that any lucky gambler can achieve this but I am not just any gambler. I use a set spread, indices, and proper BS. Depending on the table and rules, I also keep my RoR = >1%.
Guys, aside from my Negative Variance, I'm so happy to finally make my first post after all of these years - you don't even know!
(I even welcome the whitty responses, HA!)
When I started to count cards, I always had something wrong. I either didn't know how to implement a bet spread, didn't have perfct BS, didn't have the BR, or a combination of what was previously listed. I did however finally learn how to do it. My story doesn't always involve a RoR >1% but I learned what was important, and learned that the science behind playing blackjack professionally is counting cards, the art is getting away with it. I won't give my age away, but if my heart serves it's purpose, I'm willing to go to jail on trespassing charges several times over ;-)
$3000 to $245,000 in 15 months through card counting can't be done. You have watched the MIT movie too many times.
I started my blackjack career 11 years ago with $4300. Not all that different than your claim. 3 years later my BR was barely 5 figures. Yes, I had taken about $24,000+, out over those 3 years to survive (barely). In other words I made roughly $30,000 over those first 3 year ($10,000 per year), playing the same red chip level that you describe. And looking back, now, I now know I was damn lucky to have pulled that off.
Now here is why I don't think your results could be so dramatically different than mine. Card counting done right will provide you with a very slim advantage....razor thin. If you play at a 'reasonable RoR', about the best long-term results you can hope for is to turn your BR over twice in a year, and that requires a lot of play time. And if you don't play at a reasonable RoR, you are going to go broke. No 'ifs', 'ands' or 'buts' about it, if you wager more than 2 x Kelly, you will go broke.
Now there have been many stories, legends, myths about folks that go on a roll and run some small amount like $3000 into hundreds of thousands of dollars. I suppose that's possible if you go on some kind of monster roll, winning 80% of your wagers. But's that's just aggressive straight gambling. It has nothing to do with card counting. Card counting is about a very methodical, slow grind, with very conservative wagering (usually fractional Kelly). You just can NOT methodically, slow grind your way from $3000 to $245,000 via card counting in 15 months.
So if you want to amend your story of how you got from $3000 to $245,000 in 15 months, we can then dissect your more recent results, but if you are sticking with $3000 to $245,000 in 15 months, via red chip card counting, your on your own.
You are absolutely correct - I did not obtain the results I've stated at the red chip level. I took the hail mary approach of 30 max bets and got lucky at some key points... such as the max bet of $500... or the max bet of $5,000 when I only had $88,000.. (that took balls and sheer stupidity - most would chalk it up to gambling, which indeed it is - speaking numbers... other than knowing when the shoe was rich with 10's & A's).
There is soooo much that I haven't covered. As stated, I've been interested in the allure of counting cards for approximately 9 years. I've literally only gotten the important aspects down in the last 15 months, and even then, I've not become perfect at it. That, to me, is part of the allure. A true challenge. This game, with no guidance has truly challenged me. I didn't know what an agressive spread was early on. Most of my messages are sure to come across as ramblng but I can assure you I've had many, many hours, logged at the tables over the last 15 months aside from my personal business, that it would make most full-timers scratch their heads and re-think what playing full time means. That being said, I've made two huge mistakes - (if you're truly a pro, you'll realize that confronting your mistakes at any time will only further your success in the long term).
#1) Playing too aggressively.
I.E. - Playing a 1-20 spread on a double deck when the casino is empty. Furthermore, when the casino is packed, and you have no comrades; good luck getting away with this for long... Especially if the TGM is on duty! Also, I learned not to play packed tables...
#2) Overbetting my BR.
This one is self explanitory. Do not bet more than you can safely (below 1% RoR) lose. The game can cause you to think you need all of the money in the world to play it safely, and sometimes it's true. Other times you only need 1 max bet worth of ammo, and you hit the ground running...
Aside from whats posted above... throughout extensive travel, aggressive bet spreads, and no spotters, I've been: (86'd, flat-bet, or backed off) 26 times in the last 16 months... all without stepping foot into a Vegas Casino or AC Store. That being said, I wanted to learn my mistakes early on and correct them for a master plan to hit and run all over Sin City with fellow AP'ers.
Thanks for the input guys, I swear I'm not trolling or making sh1t up as I go. It's been a hell of a rollercoaster, and for the time being I'm playing a 1-12 spread on a 25 BB.
Quote: DoubleA9I wanted to learn my mistakes early on and correct them for a master plan to hit and run all over Sin City with fellow AP'ers.
.
Wow, just like in the movies. Will you have an
actual camera crew following your master plan as
it unfolds? The 'allure' of card counting, you
have got to be kidding.
It's this exact type of wording that creates doubt. Real AP's/Counters never say stuff remotely close to that.Quote: DoubleA9for a master plan to hit and run all over Sin City with fellow AP'ers.
.
I'm not calling you out, I'm just saying.
Now that you have introduced yourself here and plan to hit and run all over Sin City with fellow AP'ers. I assume you're interested in meeting with a few members and even playing some BJ sessions.
www.blackjackapprenticeship.com
www.bj21.com
www.blackjackinfo.com
www.wizardofvegas.com
BOOKS:
Beat The Dealer
Professional Blackjack
Blackjack Attack
Repeat Until Rich
Playing Blackjack as a Business
4,5,
Big Book of Blackjack
Blackbelt in Blackjack
Risk of Ruin
Million Dollar Blackjack
I'm not out to offend anyone. I understand CC'ing is the grind... the slow grind. I will not say that using these techniques with a higher RoR than 1% isn't gambling, but I did use these techniques to get to where I'm at.
This latest loss is humbling - but I'm not worried. I'm upset that the Ace had to fall on all of my 11's.. and the dealer showing a 4,5, or 6 in high counts would still pull that Ace to get a 17 just to beat my gross soft double... I know I played every hand properly, and in the short run made some beautiful plays.. I.E. Doubling A,9 against dealers 6... or Splitting 10's, or my personal favorite... Doubling 9 against dealers 7 at TC 3+ an Doubling hard 8 against dealers 6.
Reallistically it would take a strong coffee... and a lot of time, to explain the last 15 months. I knew that before I posted, but I wanted to become more active with all of the forums I've come across, give some insight, chat with others, and most importantly, give back to the community that has helped me to where I'm at today.
Too long did I sit back and just read...
Blackjack has taught me more invaluable lessons than I could give back.... One big one would be making an advantageous play; such as using a CC to get 2% back on all purchases, on top of ebay bucks (5%) , on top of PayPal's 2% cash back... if you're following me that's 9% back.. and if you spend in excess of 6 figures each quarter... that's an easy 10k or $40,000+ a year. It just so happens that my business outside of blackjack is ebay based.
My bad on getting sidetracked... so much to cover as stated earlier on!
I'm feeling 18% regret for posting at this point. Seriously.
How hard is it to think just "slightly" ahead.... I.E. driving to Vegas first, getting a SDB, loading it with 6-7 figures... and flying down with 0 cash. That way you avoid TSA.. which I know some of the snarks will just say "uhhh carry a letter from your lawyer, or uhhh.... carry a tax retern uh duhh...". Now where is that going to work out in the real world? LOL??? A plan is just that.
Clearly I'm a step ahead of some, or a step behind. Perspective is key. Maybe some of us haven't had experience wagering purples, yellows, or chocolates - but I will tell you, moving that physicl $$$ for buy-ins can be a real B%#@@. OFC RH'ing Low Denom Chips helps.
Ugh...
,,|,,
Quote: DoubleA9Why get barred from Vegas early on? That's all I'm saying.
That would be sad while you and your
fellow AP'ers are hitting and running
all over town. You do realize nobody
is taking you seriously, right? Real
players never talk like you're talking.
No witty response here. Just the truth: I don't believe you. I am not usually this blunt or rude. But there is just no way.
$3000 to $245,000 in 15 months through card counting can't be done. You have watched the MIT movie too many times.
^ That was a little witty - lol.
I keep seeing phrases and words that seemed forced or intentionally used.
Quote: DoubleA9Bob, I forgot, I'm not a real player,.
You fooled almost nobody, congrats.
When you are at work, running the french fry machine, how long do you dip the basket of fries in the oil for?
Oh well.
Quote: DoubleA9...Here I thought the point of the forums was to actually converse. Seriously?
We're serious and you're not. You're all
hat and no cattle, as they say in Texas..
(means you're a fake)
Quote: EvenBobYou're all
hat and no cattle, as they say in Texas..
Who cares what they say in other countries, Bob. LOL. :)
(P.S. That may be something to implemet into your site as I couldn't find a way to do so myself.)
Quote: DoubleA9Wizard - please cancel my account. Thank-you.
Good going Bob and Axel. :0
Quote: kewljWho cares what they say in other countries, Bob. LOL. :)
But you're living the dream, man, the 'allure'
of card counting. Last year was particularly
alluring..
Quote: EvenBobBut you're living the dream, man, the 'allure'
of card counting. Last year was particularly
alluring..
Oh, your going to take shots at me now? Kick a guy when he's down. BTW, Last year was last year. I am on to 2015 now. :)
Quote: DoubleA9Yeah Fk you bob. .
UhOh, the cover is blown. The allure has worn
off and he's about to show his true colors. Unload,
pilgrim, unload.
I would suggest you go back and edit the Fyou comment as well as the Brokeback MTN reference, if you intend to remain on this site. When the mods check in, they are likely to not take kindly to those.
Quote: DoubleA9Uh oh, Brokeback MTN is calling BOB!!!
So bitter at being busted so easily. Nice try,
but way too obvious, major overkill. Work
on that..
To: kewlj
Date Sent: January 15, 2015 12:08 am
This message was first read by the recipient on Thursday, January 15th, 2015 at 12:09:08 AM (Pacific Time)
No need to apologize. Just keep in mind how you feel when you drop 550+ units.. and how it feels when someone you're looking to relate to just pummels you with hate. I swear I'm not fake. But I will say, it honestly stings more, when I thought the ones that were on the same side end up being more rude than the PC.
I guess I can at least thank you for showing some insight into your journey.
Quote: DoubleA9From: DoubleA9
To: kewlj
Date Sent: January 15, 2015 12:08 am
This message was first read by the recipient on Thursday, January 15th, 2015 at 12:09:08 AM (Pacific Time)
No need to apologize. Just keep in mind how you feel when you drop 550+ units.. and how it feels when someone you're looking to relate to just pummels you with hate. I swear I'm not fake. But I will say, it honestly stings more, when I thought the ones that were on the same side end up being more rude than the PC.
I guess I can at least thank you for showing some insight into your journey.
PM's are private, you can't post them. Oops..
Quote: EvenBobPM's are private, you can't post them. Oops..
Yeah, but it's his own PM. He was the sender. I don't know if that is against rules or not???
Not sure why he is posting it either. What is the point of that dA9?
Quote: kewljYeah, but it's his own PM. He was the sender. I don't know if that is against rules or not???
Posting any PM is a major violation of the
word 'private'. He'll find out..
Quote: EvenBobPosting any PM is a major violation of the
word 'private'. He'll find out..
PMs are allowed to be posted if the writer of the PM gives permission. Since it is his PM, he is allowed to post it.
But I agree that I have no clue what the relevance is....
Quote: sodawaterIf OP actually did run 3k into 245k in 15 months then by definition he is a terrible blackjack player.
On the contrary - he's a fantastic blackjack player.
The AP part comes into question when gambling like that.
Looks like doing that would need about an 8% BR win per week, assuming no draw for expenses. It looks almost feasible even with expenses when we consider the hail mary start. A few BR doubling days early on (possible with hail mary) makes it even more possible.
I think for now, my comment is "Yeah, -550 units stings."
With the apparent edits, doubleA9 has stayed within previously established boundaries IMO.
Did you miss this? "Uh oh, Brokeback MTN is calling BOB!!!"Quote: beachbumbabsPM's you yourself wrote may be shared, though if they contain either personal insults or information you learned through private correspondence with the other party, they may still violate forum rules.
With the apparent edits, doubleA9 has stayed within previously established boundaries IMO.
Quote: beachbumbabs
With the apparent edits, doubleA9 has stayed within previously established boundaries IMO.
Why is he a restricted user then?
For what it's worth, I feel bad about my part in the thread. I was just playing, trying to tell the guy that his claim was too fantastic for me to believe. I now feel like I edged him on more than necessary. Maybe bullied him a bit.
I also feel like I may have disrespected the French fry operators of America. And the funny or not so funny thing, a fulltime French fry machine operator may have prospered more from his primary full-time position last year than I did from mine (blackjack). :/
Quote: kewljWhy is he a restricted user then?
Perhaps the ASCII middle finger in https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20659-15-months-ap-largest-figure-loss-frustration-level-high/2/#post424465
Quote: wudgedPerhaps the ASCII middle finger in https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20659-15-months-ap-largest-figure-loss-frustration-level-high/2/#post424465
Ha! I didn't know what that was!