The other day I was playing a single deck and I knew that all 4 aces were still in the deck even though about 1/2 the deck had been played through. The running count was 7 so I put out a big bet. I was dealt 2 tens with a dealer ace. The running count was now 4 (true count of 8) so I took insurance. No dealer blackjack.
I stayed on my hand and the dealer turned over his card. It was another ace. He took a hit. Another ace. He took another hit. ANOTHER ACE! That was all four aces in a row. Then he drew a 4 for a total of 18.
I'm not sure what the exact chances of this but I think it's about 1 in 200,000. Unbelievable.
Any odd stories like this ever happen to you?
Quote: BlackjackKingThe running count was around 7
It's too much to ask for you to keep an exact running count in a single-deck game? Pretty sure I could do that from across the aisle while playing roulette.
Quote: BlackjackKingI stayed on my hand and the dealer turned over his card. It was another ace. He took a hit. Another ace. He took another hit. ANOTHER ACE! That was all four aces in a row.
I'm not sure what the exact chances of this but I think it's about 1 in 200,000. Unbelievable.
The probability of four particular cards being aces from 26 cards is 1 in 14,950. It's 1 in 270,725 if you start from the full deck of 52.
Quote: BlackjackKingI have played possibly hundreds of thousands of hands of blackjack in my time so I have seen some crazy things.
The other day I was playing a single deck and I knew that all 4 aces were still in the deck even though about 1/2 the deck had been played through. The running count was 7 so I put out a big bet. I was dealt 2 tens with a dealer ace. The running count was now 4 (true count of 8) so I took insurance. No dealer blackjack.
I stayed on my hand and the dealer turned over his card. It was another ace. He took a hit. Another ace. He took another hit. ANOTHER ACE! That was all four aces in a row. Then he drew a 4 for a total of 18.
I'm not sure what the exact chances of this but I think it's about 1 in 200,000. Unbelievable.
Any odd stories like this ever happen to you?
I got 4 blackjacks in a row at a SD game years ago at the Golden Nugget, LV.
And once I was playing at the Stratosphere, a DD game. I was alone at the table. After the shuffle the dealer deals me a blackjack and she had a 10-value up card. She placed it in the reader and had a blackjack too. Next round the exact same thing happened. So in the first 8 cards there were 4 blackjacks with on insurance. The dealer said that was the first time she ever saw that. Me too.
About five times I've had the dealer accidently expose the hole card. Once at the Las Vegas Club, once at the Golden Nugget and once at the Four Queens. Can't remember where the other two happened, but they happened. Nothing really exiting happened where I hit my 19 because the dealer has a 20. I've never played with a dealer that inadvertently exposed the hole card--but I've been looking. I have played with dealers that blatantly exposed the bottom card.
Quote: Greasyjohn
About five times I've had the dealer accidently expose the hole card. Once at the Las Vegas Club, once at the Golden Nugget and once at the Four Queens. Can't remember where the other two happened, but they happened. Nothing really exiting happened where I hit my 19 because the dealer has a 20. I've never played with a dealer that inadvertently exposed the hole card--but I've been looking. I have played with dealers that blatently exposed the bottom card.
Here's a cool question for you to see if you really know your blackjack.
You've got an 11...Dealer has a 7 showing. She accidentally exposes a 10 as her hole card before you act. What do you do?
Quote: sodawaterHere's a cool question for you to see if you really know your blackjack.
You've got an 11...Dealer has a 7 showing. She accidentally exposes a 10 as her hole card before you act. What do you do?
You double. Seven of 13 cards win and one the 13 (a 6) pushes.
Quote: GreasyjohnYou double. Seven of 13 cards win and one the 13 (a 6) pushes.
Incorrect
Quote: sodawaterIncorrect
Well it's official then. Why so? Eight of thirteen cards push or win. Doubling seems like the right move.
Quote: GreasyjohnWell it's official then. Why so? Eight of thirteen cards push or win.
Just because one play is good doesn't mean another isn't better.
Hitting is the correct play by a mile in this situation.
Quote: sodawaterJust because one play is good doesn't mean another isn't better.
Hitting is the correct play by a mile in this situation.
Can you show me the flaw in my logic, or tell me the EV for hitting verses doubling? Edit: You're right, of course, I consulted not only your link, but the chart I have from The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book. I review this table from time to time but since it is blank (meaning of course you never double) for doubling 11 vs 17 or higher I never have an index to plug in to remember. Doubling 11 vs dealer 17 might be +EV, but hitting is obviously a higher EV. If someone can tell me by how much I would appreciate it.
Quote: GreasyjohnCan you show me the flaw in my logic, or tell me the EV for hitting verses doubling?
I'll let someone else post the actual math...
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/16/
The flaw in your logic is that you underestimate the value of hitting. You can win a lot more hands by hitting than by doubling.
Split 7s to four hands and doubled three of them (11, 10, A6) against a dealers 6. Had 3 units out on the initial bet (now 21).
Dealer's hole card was an 8.
She drew a 7.
Quote: ontariodealera guy is sitting by himself playing 5 bucks a hand and is winning quite a few.....loud mouth arrogant guy walks up and asks if he could play.....the player asks if he could wait a few hands as he is on a streak. The loud mouth yells what's the difference and plucks down a $100 chip. They play a couple of hands and the $5 guy keeps winning and the $100 guy loses every bet. So he throws a $100 black chip to the nickel player and says put this under your bet. Guy gets a 20 and the dealer shows a 7. The nickel player calmly says to the jerk, gimme 50 bucks or I hit the 20.....the guy goes crazy yelling obscenities so the guy hits the 20 and busts. Hilarity ensued.
This story has been making the rounds since the first blackjack game was dealt. A variation has it with a back line bet. The other story is about a player who wants to split 10s. The female dealer, and it's always female, asks the player if he had a 10 inch d**k would he cut it in half. He says no and she then says why split 10s? Everyone yuks it up and play continues.
Quote: sodawaterI'll let someone else post the actual math...
Assuming an "infinite deck"
For hitting:
Cards Drawn | Losses | Pushes | Wins |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
2 | 30 | 5 | 20 |
3 | 70 | 10 | 40 |
4 | 75 | 10 | 40 |
5 | 39 | 5 | 20 |
6 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
The probability of each result with N cards is 1 / 13N
The EV of hitting = 6/13 + (20-30)/132 + (40-70)/133 + (40-75)/134 + (20-39)/135 + (4-8)/136
= (6 * 135 - 10 * 134 - 30 * 133 - 35 - 132 - 19 * 13 - 4) / 136
= 1870072 / 136
The EV of doubling = 2 x (7 / 13 - 5/13) = 4/13 = 1485172 / 136.
L 29
L 2J
L 2K
L 2Q
L 2T
L 38
L 39
L 3J
L 3K
L 3Q
L 3T
L 47
L 48
L 49
L 4J
L 4K
L 4Q
L 4T
L 56
L 57
L 58
L 59
L 5J
L 5K
L 5Q
L 5T
L AJ
L AK
L AQ
L AT
L 227
L 228
L 229
L 22J
L 22K
L 22Q
L 22T
L 236
L 237
L 238
L 239
L 23J
L 23K
L 23Q
L 23T
L 2A8
L 2A9
L 2AJ
L 2AK
L 2AQ
L 2AT
L 326
L 327
L 328
L 329
L 32J
L 32K
L 32Q
L 32T
L 3A7
L 3A8
L 3A9
L 3AJ
L 3AK
L 3AQ
L 3AT
L 4A6
L 4A7
L 4A8
L 4A9
L 4AJ
L 4AK
L 4AQ
L 4AT
L A28
L A29
L A2J
L A2K
L A2Q
L A2T
L A37
L A38
L A39
L A3J
L A3K
L A3Q
L A3T
L A46
L A47
L A48
L A49
L A4J
L A4K
L A4Q
L A4T
L AA9
L AAJ
L AAK
L AAQ
L AAT
L 22A6
L 22A7
L 22A8
L 22A9
L 22AJ
L 22AK
L 22AQ
L 22AT
L 2A26
L 2A27
L 2A28
L 2A29
L 2A2J
L 2A2K
L 2A2Q
L 2A2T
L 2AA7
L 2AA8
L 2AA9
L 2AAJ
L 2AAK
L 2AAQ
L 2AAT
L 3AA6
L 3AA7
L 3AA8
L 3AA9
L 3AAJ
L 3AAK
L 3AAQ
L 3AAT
L A226
L A227
L A228
L A229
L A22J
L A22K
L A22Q
L A22T
L A2A7
L A2A8
L A2A9
L A2AJ
L A2AK
L A2AQ
L A2AT
L A3A6
L A3A7
L A3A8
L A3A9
L A3AJ
L A3AK
L A3AQ
L A3AT
L AA27
L AA28
L AA29
L AA2J
L AA2K
L AA2Q
L AA2T
L AA36
L AA37
L AA38
L AA39
L AA3J
L AA3K
L AA3Q
L AA3T
L AAA8
L AAA9
L AAAJ
L AAAK
L AAAQ
L AAAT
L 2AAA6
L 2AAA7
L 2AAA8
L 2AAA9
L 2AAAJ
L 2AAAK
L 2AAAQ
L 2AAAT
L A2AA6
L A2AA7
L A2AA8
L A2AA9
L A2AAJ
L A2AAK
L A2AAQ
L A2AAT
L AA2A6
L AA2A7
L AA2A8
L AA2A9
L AA2AJ
L AA2AK
L AA2AQ
L AA2AT
L AAA26
L AAA27
L AAA28
L AAA29
L AAA2J
L AAA2K
L AAA2Q
L AAA2T
L AAAA7
L AAAA8
L AAAA9
L AAAAJ
L AAAAK
L AAAAQ
L AAAAT
L AAAAA6
L AAAAA7
L AAAAA8
L AAAAA9
L AAAAAJ
L AAAAAK
L AAAAAQ
L AAAAAT
T 6
T 24
T 33
T 42
T 5A
T A5
T 222
T 23A
T 2A3
T 32A
T 3A2
T 4AA
T A23
T A32
T A4A
T AA4
T 22AA
T 2A2A
T 2AA2
T 3AAA
T A22A
T A2A2
T A3AA
T AA22
T AA3A
T AAA3
T 2AAAA
T A2AAA
T AA2AA
T AAA2A
T AAAA2
T AAAAAA
W 7
W 8
W 9
W J
W K
W Q
W T
W 25
W 26
W 27
W 28
W 34
W 35
W 36
W 37
W 43
W 44
W 45
W 46
W 52
W 53
W 54
W 55
W A6
W A7
W A8
W A9
W 223
W 224
W 225
W 226
W 232
W 233
W 234
W 235
W 2A4
W 2A5
W 2A6
W 2A7
W 322
W 323
W 324
W 325
W 3A3
W 3A4
W 3A5
W 3A6
W 4A2
W 4A3
W 4A4
W 4A5
W A24
W A25
W A26
W A27
W A33
W A34
W A35
W A36
W A42
W A43
W A44
W A45
W AA5
W AA6
W AA7
W AA8
W 22A2
W 22A3
W 22A4
W 22A5
W 2A22
W 2A23
W 2A24
W 2A25
W 2AA3
W 2AA4
W 2AA5
W 2AA6
W 3AA2
W 3AA3
W 3AA4
W 3AA5
W A222
W A223
W A224
W A225
W A2A3
W A2A4
W A2A5
W A2A6
W A3A2
W A3A3
W A3A4
W A3A5
W AA23
W AA24
W AA25
W AA26
W AA32
W AA33
W AA34
W AA35
W AAA4
W AAA5
W AAA6
W AAA7
W 2AAA2
W 2AAA3
W 2AAA4
W 2AAA5
W A2AA2
W A2AA3
W A2AA4
W A2AA5
W AA2A2
W AA2A3
W AA2A4
W AA2A5
W AAA22
W AAA23
W AAA24
W AAA25
W AAAA3
W AAAA4
W AAAA5
W AAAA6
W AAAAA2
W AAAAA3
W AAAAA4
W AAAAA5
Quote: 1BBSplit 7s to eight hands in a six deck shoe game.
That happened to me also 1997 Mohegan Sun $50/hand.
Quote: 98ClubsThat happened to me also 1997 Mohegan Sun $50/hand.
That's the place! I purposely left the casino's name out to see if anyone would question where that could be done.
Axelwolf was listed with 30 consecutive losses.
Don't
Quote: ThatDonGuy
Assuming an "infinite deck"
For hitting:
Cards Drawn Losses Pushes Wins 1 0 1 6 2 30 5 20 3 70 10 40 4 75 10 40 5 39 5 20 6 8 1 4
The probability of each result with N cards is 1 / 13N
The EV of hitting = 6/13 + (20-30)/132 + (40-70)/133 + (40-75)/134 + (20-39)/135 + (4-8)/136
= (6 * 135 - 10 * 134 - 30 * 133 - 35 - 132 - 19 * 13 - 4) / 136
= 1870072 / 136
The EV of doubling = 2 x (7 / 13 - 5/13) = 4/13 = 1485172 / 136.
L 29
L 2J
L 2K
L 2Q
L 2T
L 38
L 39
L 3J
L 3K
L 3Q
L 3T
L 47
L 48
L 49
L 4J
L 4K
L 4Q
L 4T
L 56
L 57
L 58
L 59
L 5J
L 5K
L 5Q
L 5T
L AJ
L AK
L AQ
L AT
L 227
L 228
L 229
L 22J
L 22K
L 22Q
L 22T
L 236
L 237
L 238
L 239
L 23J
L 23K
L 23Q
L 23T
L 2A8
L 2A9
L 2AJ
L 2AK
L 2AQ
L 2AT
L 326
L 327
L 328
L 329
L 32J
L 32K
L 32Q
L 32T
L 3A7
L 3A8
L 3A9
L 3AJ
L 3AK
L 3AQ
L 3AT
L 4A6
L 4A7
L 4A8
L 4A9
L 4AJ
L 4AK
L 4AQ
L 4AT
L A28
L A29
L A2J
L A2K
L A2Q
L A2T
L A37
L A38
L A39
L A3J
L A3K
L A3Q
L A3T
L A46
L A47
L A48
L A49
L A4J
L A4K
L A4Q
L A4T
L AA9
L AAJ
L AAK
L AAQ
L AAT
L 22A6
L 22A7
L 22A8
L 22A9
L 22AJ
L 22AK
L 22AQ
L 22AT
L 2A26
L 2A27
L 2A28
L 2A29
L 2A2J
L 2A2K
L 2A2Q
L 2A2T
L 2AA7
L 2AA8
L 2AA9
L 2AAJ
L 2AAK
L 2AAQ
L 2AAT
L 3AA6
L 3AA7
L 3AA8
L 3AA9
L 3AAJ
L 3AAK
L 3AAQ
L 3AAT
L A226
L A227
L A228
L A229
L A22J
L A22K
L A22Q
L A22T
L A2A7
L A2A8
L A2A9
L A2AJ
L A2AK
L A2AQ
L A2AT
L A3A6
L A3A7
L A3A8
L A3A9
L A3AJ
L A3AK
L A3AQ
L A3AT
L AA27
L AA28
L AA29
L AA2J
L AA2K
L AA2Q
L AA2T
L AA36
L AA37
L AA38
L AA39
L AA3J
L AA3K
L AA3Q
L AA3T
L AAA8
L AAA9
L AAAJ
L AAAK
L AAAQ
L AAAT
L 2AAA6
L 2AAA7
L 2AAA8
L 2AAA9
L 2AAAJ
L 2AAAK
L 2AAAQ
L 2AAAT
L A2AA6
L A2AA7
L A2AA8
L A2AA9
L A2AAJ
L A2AAK
L A2AAQ
L A2AAT
L AA2A6
L AA2A7
L AA2A8
L AA2A9
L AA2AJ
L AA2AK
L AA2AQ
L AA2AT
L AAA26
L AAA27
L AAA28
L AAA29
L AAA2J
L AAA2K
L AAA2Q
L AAA2T
L AAAA7
L AAAA8
L AAAA9
L AAAAJ
L AAAAK
L AAAAQ
L AAAAT
L AAAAA6
L AAAAA7
L AAAAA8
L AAAAA9
L AAAAAJ
L AAAAAK
L AAAAAQ
L AAAAAT
T 6
T 24
T 33
T 42
T 5A
T A5
T 222
T 23A
T 2A3
T 32A
T 3A2
T 4AA
T A23
T A32
T A4A
T AA4
T 22AA
T 2A2A
T 2AA2
T 3AAA
T A22A
T A2A2
T A3AA
T AA22
T AA3A
T AAA3
T 2AAAA
T A2AAA
T AA2AA
T AAA2A
T AAAA2
T AAAAAA
W 7
W 8
W 9
W J
W K
W Q
W T
W 25
W 26
W 27
W 28
W 34
W 35
W 36
W 37
W 43
W 44
W 45
W 46
W 52
W 53
W 54
W 55
W A6
W A7
W A8
W A9
W 223
W 224
W 225
W 226
W 232
W 233
W 234
W 235
W 2A4
W 2A5
W 2A6
W 2A7
W 322
W 323
W 324
W 325
W 3A3
W 3A4
W 3A5
W 3A6
W 4A2
W 4A3
W 4A4
W 4A5
W A24
W A25
W A26
W A27
W A33
W A34
W A35
W A36
W A42
W A43
W A44
W A45
W AA5
W AA6
W AA7
W AA8
W 22A2
W 22A3
W 22A4
W 22A5
W 2A22
W 2A23
W 2A24
W 2A25
W 2AA3
W 2AA4
W 2AA5
W 2AA6
W 3AA2
W 3AA3
W 3AA4
W 3AA5
W A222
W A223
W A224
W A225
W A2A3
W A2A4
W A2A5
W A2A6
W A3A2
W A3A3
W A3A4
W A3A5
W AA23
W AA24
W AA25
W AA26
W AA32
W AA33
W AA34
W AA35
W AAA4
W AAA5
W AAA6
W AAA7
W 2AAA2
W 2AAA3
W 2AAA4
W 2AAA5
W A2AA2
W A2AA3
W A2AA4
W A2AA5
W AA2A2
W AA2A3
W AA2A4
W AA2A5
W AAA22
W AAA23
W AAA24
W AAA25
W AAAA3
W AAAA4
W AAAA5
W AAAA6
W AAAAA2
W AAAAA3
W AAAAA4
W AAAAA5
So Don, does that mean that the EV for hitting is 1.87 % and doubling is 1.485%
Quote: GreasyjohnQuote: ThatDonGuy
Assuming an "infinite deck"
For hitting:
Cards Drawn Losses Pushes Wins 1 0 1 6 2 30 5 20 3 70 10 40 4 75 10 40 5 39 5 20 6 8 1 4
The probability of each result with N cards is 1 / 13N
The EV of hitting = 6/13 + (20-30)/132 + (40-70)/133 + (40-75)/134 + (20-39)/135 + (4-8)/136
= (6 * 135 - 10 * 134 - 30 * 133 - 35 - 132 - 19 * 13 - 4) / 136
= 1870072 / 136
The EV of doubling = 2 x (7 / 13 - 5/13) = 4/13 = 1485172 / 136.
L 29
L 2J
L 2K
L 2Q
L 2T
L 38
L 39
L 3J
L 3K
L 3Q
L 3T
L 47
L 48
L 49
L 4J
L 4K
L 4Q
L 4T
L 56
L 57
L 58
L 59
L 5J
L 5K
L 5Q
L 5T
L AJ
L AK
L AQ
L AT
L 227
L 228
L 229
L 22J
L 22K
L 22Q
L 22T
L 236
L 237
L 238
L 239
L 23J
L 23K
L 23Q
L 23T
L 2A8
L 2A9
L 2AJ
L 2AK
L 2AQ
L 2AT
L 326
L 327
L 328
L 329
L 32J
L 32K
L 32Q
L 32T
L 3A7
L 3A8
L 3A9
L 3AJ
L 3AK
L 3AQ
L 3AT
L 4A6
L 4A7
L 4A8
L 4A9
L 4AJ
L 4AK
L 4AQ
L 4AT
L A28
L A29
L A2J
L A2K
L A2Q
L A2T
L A37
L A38
L A39
L A3J
L A3K
L A3Q
L A3T
L A46
L A47
L A48
L A49
L A4J
L A4K
L A4Q
L A4T
L AA9
L AAJ
L AAK
L AAQ
L AAT
L 22A6
L 22A7
L 22A8
L 22A9
L 22AJ
L 22AK
L 22AQ
L 22AT
L 2A26
L 2A27
L 2A28
L 2A29
L 2A2J
L 2A2K
L 2A2Q
L 2A2T
L 2AA7
L 2AA8
L 2AA9
L 2AAJ
L 2AAK
L 2AAQ
L 2AAT
L 3AA6
L 3AA7
L 3AA8
L 3AA9
L 3AAJ
L 3AAK
L 3AAQ
L 3AAT
L A226
L A227
L A228
L A229
L A22J
L A22K
L A22Q
L A22T
L A2A7
L A2A8
L A2A9
L A2AJ
L A2AK
L A2AQ
L A2AT
L A3A6
L A3A7
L A3A8
L A3A9
L A3AJ
L A3AK
L A3AQ
L A3AT
L AA27
L AA28
L AA29
L AA2J
L AA2K
L AA2Q
L AA2T
L AA36
L AA37
L AA38
L AA39
L AA3J
L AA3K
L AA3Q
L AA3T
L AAA8
L AAA9
L AAAJ
L AAAK
L AAAQ
L AAAT
L 2AAA6
L 2AAA7
L 2AAA8
L 2AAA9
L 2AAAJ
L 2AAAK
L 2AAAQ
L 2AAAT
L A2AA6
L A2AA7
L A2AA8
L A2AA9
L A2AAJ
L A2AAK
L A2AAQ
L A2AAT
L AA2A6
L AA2A7
L AA2A8
L AA2A9
L AA2AJ
L AA2AK
L AA2AQ
L AA2AT
L AAA26
L AAA27
L AAA28
L AAA29
L AAA2J
L AAA2K
L AAA2Q
L AAA2T
L AAAA7
L AAAA8
L AAAA9
L AAAAJ
L AAAAK
L AAAAQ
L AAAAT
L AAAAA6
L AAAAA7
L AAAAA8
L AAAAA9
L AAAAAJ
L AAAAAK
L AAAAAQ
L AAAAAT
T 6
T 24
T 33
T 42
T 5A
T A5
T 222
T 23A
T 2A3
T 32A
T 3A2
T 4AA
T A23
T A32
T A4A
T AA4
T 22AA
T 2A2A
T 2AA2
T 3AAA
T A22A
T A2A2
T A3AA
T AA22
T AA3A
T AAA3
T 2AAAA
T A2AAA
T AA2AA
T AAA2A
T AAAA2
T AAAAAA
W 7
W 8
W 9
W J
W K
W Q
W T
W 25
W 26
W 27
W 28
W 34
W 35
W 36
W 37
W 43
W 44
W 45
W 46
W 52
W 53
W 54
W 55
W A6
W A7
W A8
W A9
W 223
W 224
W 225
W 226
W 232
W 233
W 234
W 235
W 2A4
W 2A5
W 2A6
W 2A7
W 322
W 323
W 324
W 325
W 3A3
W 3A4
W 3A5
W 3A6
W 4A2
W 4A3
W 4A4
W 4A5
W A24
W A25
W A26
W A27
W A33
W A34
W A35
W A36
W A42
W A43
W A44
W A45
W AA5
W AA6
W AA7
W AA8
W 22A2
W 22A3
W 22A4
W 22A5
W 2A22
W 2A23
W 2A24
W 2A25
W 2AA3
W 2AA4
W 2AA5
W 2AA6
W 3AA2
W 3AA3
W 3AA4
W 3AA5
W A222
W A223
W A224
W A225
W A2A3
W A2A4
W A2A5
W A2A6
W A3A2
W A3A3
W A3A4
W A3A5
W AA23
W AA24
W AA25
W AA26
W AA32
W AA33
W AA34
W AA35
W AAA4
W AAA5
W AAA6
W AAA7
W 2AAA2
W 2AAA3
W 2AAA4
W 2AAA5
W A2AA2
W A2AA3
W A2AA4
W A2AA5
W AA2A2
W AA2A3
W AA2A4
W AA2A5
W AAA22
W AAA23
W AAA24
W AAA25
W AAAA3
W AAAA4
W AAAA5
W AAAA6
W AAAAA2
W AAAAA3
W AAAAA4
W AAAAA5
So Don, does that mean that the EV for hitting is 1.87 % and doubling is 1.485%
No, EV of hitting is 38.74% and doubling is 30.77%.
Quote: sodawaterQuote: GreasyjohnQuote: ThatDonGuy
Assuming an "infinite deck"
For hitting:
Cards Drawn Losses Pushes Wins 1 0 1 6 2 30 5 20 3 70 10 40 4 75 10 40 5 39 5 20 6 8 1 4
The probability of each result with N cards is 1 / 13N
The EV of hitting = 6/13 + (20-30)/132 + (40-70)/133 + (40-75)/134 + (20-39)/135 + (4-8)/136
= (6 * 135 - 10 * 134 - 30 * 133 - 35 - 132 - 19 * 13 - 4) / 136
= 1870072 / 136
The EV of doubling = 2 x (7 / 13 - 5/13) = 4/13 = 1485172 / 136.
L 29
L 2J
L 2K
L 2Q
L 2T
L 38
L 39
L 3J
L 3K
L 3Q
L 3T
L 47
L 48
L 49
L 4J
L 4K
L 4Q
L 4T
L 56
L 57
L 58
L 59
L 5J
L 5K
L 5Q
L 5T
L AJ
L AK
L AQ
L AT
L 227
L 228
L 229
L 22J
L 22K
L 22Q
L 22T
L 236
L 237
L 238
L 239
L 23J
L 23K
L 23Q
L 23T
L 2A8
L 2A9
L 2AJ
L 2AK
L 2AQ
L 2AT
L 326
L 327
L 328
L 329
L 32J
L 32K
L 32Q
L 32T
L 3A7
L 3A8
L 3A9
L 3AJ
L 3AK
L 3AQ
L 3AT
L 4A6
L 4A7
L 4A8
L 4A9
L 4AJ
L 4AK
L 4AQ
L 4AT
L A28
L A29
L A2J
L A2K
L A2Q
L A2T
L A37
L A38
L A39
L A3J
L A3K
L A3Q
L A3T
L A46
L A47
L A48
L A49
L A4J
L A4K
L A4Q
L A4T
L AA9
L AAJ
L AAK
L AAQ
L AAT
L 22A6
L 22A7
L 22A8
L 22A9
L 22AJ
L 22AK
L 22AQ
L 22AT
L 2A26
L 2A27
L 2A28
L 2A29
L 2A2J
L 2A2K
L 2A2Q
L 2A2T
L 2AA7
L 2AA8
L 2AA9
L 2AAJ
L 2AAK
L 2AAQ
L 2AAT
L 3AA6
L 3AA7
L 3AA8
L 3AA9
L 3AAJ
L 3AAK
L 3AAQ
L 3AAT
L A226
L A227
L A228
L A229
L A22J
L A22K
L A22Q
L A22T
L A2A7
L A2A8
L A2A9
L A2AJ
L A2AK
L A2AQ
L A2AT
L A3A6
L A3A7
L A3A8
L A3A9
L A3AJ
L A3AK
L A3AQ
L A3AT
L AA27
L AA28
L AA29
L AA2J
L AA2K
L AA2Q
L AA2T
L AA36
L AA37
L AA38
L AA39
L AA3J
L AA3K
L AA3Q
L AA3T
L AAA8
L AAA9
L AAAJ
L AAAK
L AAAQ
L AAAT
L 2AAA6
L 2AAA7
L 2AAA8
L 2AAA9
L 2AAAJ
L 2AAAK
L 2AAAQ
L 2AAAT
L A2AA6
L A2AA7
L A2AA8
L A2AA9
L A2AAJ
L A2AAK
L A2AAQ
L A2AAT
L AA2A6
L AA2A7
L AA2A8
L AA2A9
L AA2AJ
L AA2AK
L AA2AQ
L AA2AT
L AAA26
L AAA27
L AAA28
L AAA29
L AAA2J
L AAA2K
L AAA2Q
L AAA2T
L AAAA7
L AAAA8
L AAAA9
L AAAAJ
L AAAAK
L AAAAQ
L AAAAT
L AAAAA6
L AAAAA7
L AAAAA8
L AAAAA9
L AAAAAJ
L AAAAAK
L AAAAAQ
L AAAAAT
T 6
T 24
T 33
T 42
T 5A
T A5
T 222
T 23A
T 2A3
T 32A
T 3A2
T 4AA
T A23
T A32
T A4A
T AA4
T 22AA
T 2A2A
T 2AA2
T 3AAA
T A22A
T A2A2
T A3AA
T AA22
T AA3A
T AAA3
T 2AAAA
T A2AAA
T AA2AA
T AAA2A
T AAAA2
T AAAAAA
W 7
W 8
W 9
W J
W K
W Q
W T
W 25
W 26
W 27
W 28
W 34
W 35
W 36
W 37
W 43
W 44
W 45
W 46
W 52
W 53
W 54
W 55
W A6
W A7
W A8
W A9
W 223
W 224
W 225
W 226
W 232
W 233
W 234
W 235
W 2A4
W 2A5
W 2A6
W 2A7
W 322
W 323
W 324
W 325
W 3A3
W 3A4
W 3A5
W 3A6
W 4A2
W 4A3
W 4A4
W 4A5
W A24
W A25
W A26
W A27
W A33
W A34
W A35
W A36
W A42
W A43
W A44
W A45
W AA5
W AA6
W AA7
W AA8
W 22A2
W 22A3
W 22A4
W 22A5
W 2A22
W 2A23
W 2A24
W 2A25
W 2AA3
W 2AA4
W 2AA5
W 2AA6
W 3AA2
W 3AA3
W 3AA4
W 3AA5
W A222
W A223
W A224
W A225
W A2A3
W A2A4
W A2A5
W A2A6
W A3A2
W A3A3
W A3A4
W A3A5
W AA23
W AA24
W AA25
W AA26
W AA32
W AA33
W AA34
W AA35
W AAA4
W AAA5
W AAA6
W AAA7
W 2AAA2
W 2AAA3
W 2AAA4
W 2AAA5
W A2AA2
W A2AA3
W A2AA4
W A2AA5
W AA2A2
W AA2A3
W AA2A4
W AA2A5
W AAA22
W AAA23
W AAA24
W AAA25
W AAAA3
W AAAA4
W AAAA5
W AAAA6
W AAAAA2
W AAAAA3
W AAAAA4
W AAAAA5
So Don, does that mean that the EV for hitting is 1.87 % and doubling is 1.485%
No, EV of hitting is 38.74% and doubling is 30.77%.
That doesn't look right. You aren't winning 38.74% or 30.77% of your bet. You're winning more than your bet.
Quote: sodawaterQuote: Greasyjohn
So Don, does that mean that the EV for hitting is 1.87 % and doubling is 1.485%
No, EV of hitting is 38.74% and doubling is 30.77%.
The EV of hitting is 38.74%; the EV of doubling is either 30.77% or half that, depending on what you are basing the percentage on. It is 30.77% of the initial $50 bet, but half that value of the total $100 bet.
Quote: Greasyjohn
That doesn't look right. You aren't winning 38.74% or 30.77% of your bet. You're winning more than your bet.
Isn't "expected value" expressed as a profit or loss value, as opposed to "expected return"?
Tell me if I have this right:
If you hit, you should, on average, win 0.3874 of your original bet, so the expected value is 0.3874 times your original bet.
The expected return is 1.3874 times your original bet.
To put it another way, if you "play" a Bill Breaker, the EV is zero, and the ER is the amount you put in.
From that point on, I always bet $5 on the first hand of a shoe.
Thr reason it happened to me, then, was NO Stoopid 7's side-bet. And don't you know, the first FOUR cards in my hands were the 7 of Spades!
Quote: 1BBSplit 7s to eight hands in a six deck shoe game.
I hope the dealer busted. I'd love to see what the felt looked like with that many hands spread out. (Reminds me of once seeing a MLB clip from years ago where a catcher and a second baseman were involved in a rundown between first and second base. Something you'll probably only see once in a lifetime. At some Texas Hold'em poker tournament somewhere the community cards were a Royal. You can probably Google the video. Now, if I can only get *5,5,5,A,5.)
* (the ace can only be in the fourth-card position.)
Quote: GreasyjohnI hope the dealer busted. I'd love to see what the felt looked like with that many hands spread out. (Reminds me of once seeing a MLB clip from years ago where a catcher and a second baseman were involved in a rundown between first and second base. Something you'll probably only see once in a lifetime. At some Texas Hold'em poker tournament somewhere the community cards were a Royal. You can probably Google the video. Now, if I can only get 5,5,5,A,5.)
I was playing third base, heads up, and the dealer ended up placing my cards to the right of the original bet, having run out of room to the left. She was having fun with it and spread the cards wider than usual so that they went to the middle of the table. She did not break and I was a couple of bets to the good after the dust settled.
The dealer and I both drew a lot of small cards and that enabled me to successfully finish the shoe with max bets, two of which matched blackjacks with the dealer. Who said never take even money? :-)
I knew I wanted to exploit the betting circle to my left. It's a good idea to follow up on that thought in a manner that is consistent with the rules of the game.
"Coffee plays."
Quote: Greasyjohn"Coffee plays."
Yes, if you won they should get you another cup of coffee [and make you chug it ... j/k]
Quote: ontariodealerA newbie is dealing bj when a player gets ace's and wants to split them but is out of money. He asks the dealer to loan him 10 bucks from the tray so he can split them, does so and wins both bets. When he refuses the dealer calls over the floor and says "I lent him 10 bucks from the tray and he won't pay it back"
That's a new one. I wonder how that turned out for him.
Just go to a different casino and bet your 8th hand.Quote: BeardgoatThis probably isn't very crazy, but definitely stupid... I was 19 playing at an Indian casino and went with the martingale system (before I even knew there was a name for it) . Started out betting $5 a hand and I would double the bet if I lost. I was doing pretty well for about an hour. Then I lost 7 hands in a row and got wiped out. That was also the day I realized why casinos has a table limit
I now have 39 BJ losses in a row , 6 BJs in a row, 37 Black losses in a row, 19 yo's in a row, 2 back to back Royals ss (both dealt), 4oak Aces beat by a RF AND a str8 flush, held the dice for 2.5 hrs, 2 stacked dice shoots in a row (snake eyes), I have a fool/full proof Baccarat system, I can predict roulette patterns and distinguish RNGs from live.Quote: aladyat42I once lost 29 consecutive hands of Blackjack. I submitted my documentation to the Guineas Book of World Records. Unfortunately someone named
Axelwolf was listed with 30 consecutive losses.
Don't
And I seen Elvis last week, he borrowed a 20 spot.
some of the stories may or may not be true
Can someone tell me the odds of getting the same 4 of a kind dealt back to back in VP?
Quote: ontariodealeranother newbie, right out of bj school, where they used purple lammers. She is on her shuffle and her three players went for a smoke when the floor walks buy and asks why is there 1500 bucks on the table,
Good one!
Quote: AxelWolf
Can someone tell me the odds of getting the same 4 of a kind dealt back to back in VP?
(.000240/13)^2 = 3.408284e-10---- 1/3.408284e-10 = 1 in 2,934,027,798.15
Almost one in three billion, unless the fifth card also has to be the same or the 4OaK cards have to appear in the same position.
EDIT: For the record, I have seen a 4OaK beaten by a straight flush and a royal flush, but it was a five card draw home game where Deuces and One-Eyed Jacks were wild...and only the SF was a natural hand.
Quote: AxelWolfsame 4 of a kind dealt back to back in VP?
Not questioning Mission's math, but...
Just same ranks (i.e. 4 7's), or all in the same positions, or with the same extra card, or the whole shebang?
Any position any extra cards.Quote: DieterNot questioning Mission's math, but...
Just same ranks (i.e. 4 7's), or all in the same positions, or with the same extra card, or the whole shebang?
Quote: ontariodealeranother newbie, right out of bj school, where they used purple lammers. She is on her shuffle and her three players went for a smoke when the floor walks buy and asks why is there 1500 bucks on the table,
i dont get it. what is a purple lammer? maybe that will help me understand.
Quote: Avincowi dont get it. what is a purple lammer? maybe that will help me understand.
I was hoping someone would ask about that because I didn't get it either. Or the one about the guy that borrowed the $10. Seems like there was a sentence or two missing in that one.
Quote: Avincowi dont get it. what is a purple lammer? maybe that will help me understand.
A lammer is a non-value chip shaped thing. They're often used to separate cheques in the tray (for easy counting), and to reserve spots for players who have stepped away from the table.
The places around here typically use either a small clear disc, or a 39mm (cheque sized) plain (unmarked) orange chip. It sounds like this particular house was using a purple plain chip, probably cheque sized, as a lammer.
It sounds like the floor looked at the table and thought there were 3 spots with $500 cheques on them, and no players around.
Quote: DieterA lammer is a non-value chip shaped thing. They're often used to separate cheques in the tray (for easy counting), and to reserve spots for players who have stepped away from the table.
The places around here typically use either a small clear disc, or a 39mm (cheque sized) plain (unmarked) orange chip. It sounds like this particular house was using a purple plain chip, probably cheque sized, as a lammer.
It sounds like the floor looked at the table and thought there were 3 spots with $500 cheques on them, and no players around.
I think the dealer school was using the purple lammers, then in the live casino the dealer used the $500 lammers that are typically used for keeping track of table hold and markers. Floor saw them all sitting out and wanted to know what was going on.