Playing DD using AOII full indices w ASC. About to take a trip to Vegas & could use some advice!
As for your spread. You shouldn't have too many problems going 6-1. Ideally, as I'm sure you'll see for maximizing your EV when you do the calculations, for DD an 8-1 spread is really ideal. "Most" places are okay with an 8-1 spread, baring places like El Cortez or other known sweaty establishments. The funny thing is once you do the excel calculations, you can just play with the spread and see how it effects all of your other numbers (gain per hand, hourly, trip, etc). Then, when you're at a casino if you notice ZERO heat and want to spread 10-1, you'll know if you're in the bounds of your bankroll (Kelly Calculations are also presented) and what your EV is very specifically for that spread. Myself, I made a couple spread sheets with copy/pasting and just modified my spread so I knew "Okay, if I spread 15-1 my EV is X, and if I spread 10-1 my EV is X."
I can't speak to the higher limit games like $50 min, but when I was recently in vegas the double deck games were almost all hand held and dealt face down (i.e. the players handle the cards). If you play more than one hand you'll just have to play one hand at a time as they don't want you touching both hands at the same time or while they both still have action, obviously.
For games to play, especially on the strip, I'd consult with the Wizards Vegas Survey.
Since you're looking to spread at least 6-1 on a 50 min game, do you mind me asking what your bankroll/trip bankroll is? I'd assume this is just a trip bankroll, so you 'should' be okay with as little as $7,500-$10K (25-33 big bets).
To address your Omega II vs Hi/Low question... I'm not an expert with Omega, but the first link in my A-Z thread is a link that compares all the different counting systems. Here's a shot of just Hi/Low and Omega II:
BC = Betting Correlation - BC is defined as the correlation between card point values and the effect of removal of cards. It is used to predict how well a counting system predicts good betting situations and can approach 1.00 (100% correlation.) BC is particularly important in shoe games (six or eight decks.)
PE = Playing Efficiency - PE indicates how well a counting system handles changes in playing strategy. Playing efficiency is particularly important in hand-held games (one or two decks.)
IC = Insurance Correlation - IC is defined as the correlation between card point values and the value of cards in Insurance situation. A point value of -9 for tens and +4 for all other cards would be perfect for predicting if an Insurance bet should be placed.
Type = Balanced + Level
...So given this information it would appear as though while Omega II is a more difficult count (possibly leading to more mistakes in the long run), it out performs the Hi/Low in the Playing Efficiency, and Insurance Correlation. So while the Hi/Low is better at identifying good situations, Omega II is better at playing them. Variance will be variance. You're almost splitting hairs at this point so I would see the standard deviations for potential wins or losses to be quite similar to that of Hi/Low. With that noted, since Omega II does outperform in PE, I would imagine it would help ever so slightly on the topic of "variance." Again though, this might only be a few hands difference in 100 hands, but over time that does certainly add up =), as long as you're counting and playing correctly!
Quote: theOmega623Yea I was thinking that due to the increased accuracy of playing efficiency, it might lead to smaller variance because there would be less playing mistakes. For betting correlation I keep a side count of aces dealt & add or subtract 2 to the running count based on aces dealt vs aces that should have been dealt. Apparently this increases the betting correlation of AOII to .99%. I believe the accuracy of playing efficiency & insurance correlation lowers the house edge off the top. I read that in a 6 deck game the Hi-Lo Ill 18 basic strategy variations decreases the house edge by 0.2% but in a double deck game playing efficiency is much more important. I wonder if using the AOII with over 50 basic strategy variations in a double deck S17 DAS game with an off the top house edge of 0.27% reduces the house edge so much as to create an off the top player advantage?? Would love to see a simulation of this.
You wouldn't lose much, if anything by switching to Zen. Just switch the ace and 9 values and you have an ace reckoned count. No more ace side count means less work without sacrificing accuracy. I believe the same indices are fine.
You have probably already heard this before, but be careful playing the double-deck games as many of them are traps. I was playing rated spreading $50-$250 once at the 2D H17 game at Excalibur. The dealer was giving pretty decent pen. The pit seemed completely uninterested and barely even looked at the table, and I naively thought no one was looking and played on with little cover. In reality, surveillance was likely watching the table the whole time. I played for about 1 hour, and then I thought I left without an incident. However, when I later went and played at a different M-Life property, the shift manager showed up in less than 15 minutes and I got flat betted. I'm sure it was the previous session that did me in.
Quote: theOmega623Yes this is the kind of thing im worried about. Ive been flat betted several times playing 6 deck but ive actually never played high-limit double deck, this will be my first time so im wondering how much you can get away with. Its all for nothing if they wont let you play.
Play unrated and keep your sessions short (40 min or so). Then you can hop around and keep playing all day. This is, of course, referring to something like Vegas, AC, etc, where you have a lot of options.
Personally, I like to play with a slightly lower (but still positive EV) spread at the casino I play rated at. I give them some play and that way I can keep getting free rooms/etc, but then when I go to other casinos I play unrated and blast away =). I'm in Vegas once or twice a year and have a plethora of places to play, so I've never had an issue both getting comps and playing hard. Are you doing this, or going to try to do this, professionally?
Quote: theOmega623Ok thanks for the advice. This has been a hobby of mine for a few years now but im looking to step it up. Counting the shoe games in AC just hasnt been worth the time or effort. I would like to take it to a somewhat professional level if possible. For a long time I just did it for fun really but making a couple grand per trip (in the long run of course) is the goal now. If it can be done.
Eh, it's a lot tougher grind (1BB can chime in) to make it professionally. Hell, only part time over the past 8 years or so I've often felt it would be impossible to do it professionally. You just need such a large bankroll it's ridiculous. I'd say stick to trips for now and if you can get your BR high enough, and not get burned out, then maybe give it a shot =).
Spreading 50-300 a couple grand either way could be a very easy thing to see. Given your spread you specifically mentioned earlier, and taking an educated multiple guess from one of mine, I'd assume generically (run the numbers to be exact) you're looking to make ~$150/hour. Okay so I modified one of my spreadsheets and for your spread I'm showing $89.1148 per hour. Might I suggest raising your bet at TC +2 instead of TC +3? I don't know how I missed this earlier, but in the games you're playing (<.5% HE) you're the favorite at TC +1. You 100% for sure should be raising your bet at TC +2, and I might even bump it to 75 at TC +1... I like to make it look like I play progressive, slowly adding chips at each level to get to my BB instead of jumping from min to max.
Your spread the way you have it described: $89.1148 per hour
Using the following spread as I suggest: $105.9751 per hour
TC < +1 = $50
TC +1 = $75
TC +2 = $100
TC +3 = $200
TC +4 = $300
TC +5 = $300
TC >+5 = $600 (over 2 hands)
*Since you're playing DD and it's harder to wong, this encompasses playing from TC -2 up to TC +8 and a HE of -.43% (I'd assume at $50 min you can even get a better HE). Note this is also for Hi/Low... Thus, you might even have yet a lower house edge / less variance.
This is why it's so powerful to have one of those spreadsheets up. It literally takes <5 minutes to change the HE/Spread and you can optimize your play for what you feel you can get away with at any game, at any time.
So let's look at some theoreticals... If you have a full 3 days to play, and play ~10 hours per day (you stated you'll play almost non stop), then that would be about 30 hours of play. Playing it safe assuming you get ~100 hands per hour at double deck (for some reason I can't remember the average hands for DD right now), this would give us ~3,000 hands played on the trip.
I'm showing your gain per hand to be ~1.17685... So your expected win for the trip would be (1.17685 * 3000) = $3,530.54
If I didn't enjoy running these numbers so much I think I'd charge for consulting lol. Seriously, go make the spreadsheet =P; it's a very powerful tool.
Quote: theOmega623Thanks a lot for the info! Yes I will change my ramp to start increasing my bets at TC+2. But this about what I expected roughly $100hr or so, other than the fact that I will be using a much stronger & more accurate counting system. I would love to find out more about the power of the Advanced Omega II system tho so I know how much different I can expect the results to be from using the Hi-Lo. I have been trying to find information on this but havent had any luck.
Have you considered purchasing the software? I assume you know which one.
Quote: theOmega623What software is that?
Casino Verite. Go to Qfit.com. Norm is highly respected and runs the Blackjack:TheForum site. You can go straight there instead because you'll end up there anyway. Everything you'll need. Like a kid in a candy store.
Quote: theOmega623Yes im sure the double deck S17 games & certainly watched more closely than any other game due to having the lowest house edge & being easily beatable. Are there any specific places you would recommend playing?
The MGM properties have the best DD games but as Buster Poindexter says "Hot Hot Hot". Aria is the worst.
Quote: theOmega623Ok I will certainly keep that in mind. I plan on testing the waters on my trip & 'hopefully' with a little act & a 6-1 spread they wont shut me down. I downloaded the trial version on CV & will upgrade to the full version. Thanks to all of you guys for the help & advice!
Best of luck. Maybe we'll see a trip report out of it? =P Either way, post back in here after your trip if you don't want to do a report (they do take some effort) and let us know how it went.
Quote: RomesEven at a 6-1 spread... If you play through the night (i.e. not very many other people) even an half wit pit boss might be able to sniff something out after 6 straight hours of your play. I'd still recommend getting at least a few places to play (preferably owned by different companies) and spreading your action for a night over a couple places.
To address your Omega II vs Hi/Low question... I'm not an expert with Omega, but the first link in my A-Z thread is a link that compares all the different counting systems. Here's a shot of just Hi/Low and Omega II:
BC = Betting Correlation - BC is defined as the correlation between card point values and the effect of removal of cards. It is used to predict how well a counting system predicts good betting situations and can approach 1.00 (100% correlation.) BC is particularly important in shoe games (six or eight decks.)
PE = Playing Efficiency - PE indicates how well a counting system handles changes in playing strategy. Playing efficiency is particularly important in hand-held games (one or two decks.)
IC = Insurance Correlation - IC is defined as the correlation between card point values and the value of cards in Insurance situation. A point value of -9 for tens and +4 for all other cards would be perfect for predicting if an Insurance bet should be placed.
Type = Balanced + Level
...So given this information it would appear as though while Omega II is a more difficult count (possibly leading to more mistakes in the long run), it out performs the Hi/Low in the Playing Efficiency, and Insurance Correlation. So while the Hi/Low is better at identifying good situations, Omega II is better at playing them. Variance will be variance. You're almost splitting hairs at this point so I would see the standard deviations for potential wins or losses to be quite similar to that of Hi/Low. With that noted, since Omega II does outperform in PE, I would imagine it would help ever so slightly on the topic of "variance." Again though, this might only be a few hands difference in 100 hands, but over time that does certainly add up =), as long as you're counting and playing correctly!
Romes:
O-2/Z-2 are the best counts for SD/DD "pitch" games. The gain in PC and IC is well worth it. Those are the two indexes with the best ROI for the Player.
Quote: theOmega623Yea I was thinking that due to the increased accuracy of playing efficiency, it might lead to smaller variance because there would be less playing mistakes. For betting correlation I keep a side count of aces dealt & add or subtract 2 to the running count based on aces dealt vs aces that should have been dealt. Apparently this increases the betting correlation of AOII to .99%. I believe the accuracy of playing efficiency & insurance correlation lowers the house edge off the top. I read that in a 6 deck game the Hi-Lo Ill 18 basic strategy variations decreases the house edge by 0.2% but in a double deck game playing efficiency is much more important. I wonder if using the AOII with over 50 basic strategy variations in a double deck S17 DAS game with an off the top house edge of 0.27% reduces the house edge so much as to create an off the top player advantage?? Would love to see a simulation of this.
Using AOII, it looks like you still have a slight disadvantage (-0.014%) with flat betting and full indices with a Double Deck S17, DAS game with .8 decks cut off (Mirage, Monte Carlo) and playing heads up against the dealer. However this is without an Ace side count and without considering comps. With these considered, I'm sure it's positive EV.
Quote: theOmega623Thank you BlackjackKing I thought it would be very close to neutral or even positive. I actually use an ace side count adjustment for betting, playing & insurance decisions. I ran a simulation on CVData using AOII full Indices (without an ASC) against a 2 Deck S17 DAS Re-split Aces allowed game (0.20% house edge) with 65% deck penetration & it actually showed a small profit when only flat-betting. I found it very interesting.
Your results are most likely different because you have a little bit better penetration and RSA. Either way you get would be profitable when all is considered. If you have a big bankroll, maybe you can try it out. The comps alone would be worth it at a generous casino.
Casinos love black chip players who flat bet, because there is "no way they are counting"
Quote: theOmega623Yes that was my thinking exactly. Do you use CVData to run your sims?
yes
And yeah, qfit.com. No need for spreadsheets; it will answer all of your questions. Although, if you like doing spreadsheets and trust yourself, go sick.
1.) DD games in Vegas are for the most part, counter traps. Always keep that thought in the back of your mind. There are places that hawk their DD games and will back you off with a 1-4 spread, while you can play the 6 deck game at the next table spreading 1-24 or more with no problem.
2.) Spreading to 2 hands is a huge issue in Vegas. Draws much more heat that other locations and this is especially true of DD games, although applies to 6 deck as well. This was actually one of my biggest disappointments when I moved to Vegas. I was looking forward to spreading horizontally as well as vertically, which I wasn't able to do so much back on the east coast because of crowded condition. I quickly found out it is a problem.
3.) NY NY is one of the sweatier M-chain properties, at least the southern strip M-chain properties. They will back you off, open a report on you in OSN AND flyer you to the sister properties and it's not even that good of a game. If you are going to burn out a game and a chain of properties, pick a better game.
Again, DD games in Vegas for the most part are a trap or hawked very closely. There is a reason why those of us that live here or those that play here frequently play very limited DD. If you only roll into town 2-3 times a year, you can risk playing and getting backed off. Otherwise, be careful.
Quote: kewljI too, realize this thread is a few months old, but want to add a couple thoughts.
1.) DD games in Vegas are for the most part, counter traps. Always keep that thought in the back of your mind. There are places that hawk their DD games and will back you off with a 1-4 spread, while you can play the 6 deck game at the next table spreading 1-24 or more with no problem.
2.) Spreading to 2 hands is a huge issue in Vegas. Draws much more heat that other locations and this is especially true of DD games, although applies to 6 deck as well. This was actually one of my biggest disappointments when I moved to Vegas. I was looking forward to spreading horizontally as well as vertically, which I wasn't able to do so much back on the east coast because of crowded condition. I quickly found out it is a problem.
3.) NY NY is one of the sweatier M-chain properties, at least the southern strip M-chain properties. They will back you off, open a report on you in OSN AND flyer you to the sister properties and it's not even that good of a game. If you are going to burn out a game and a chain of properties, pick a better game.
Again, DD games in Vegas for the most part are a trap or hawked very closely. There is a reason why those of us that live here or those that play here frequently play very limited DD. If you only roll into town 2-3 times a year, you can risk playing and getting backed off. Otherwise, be careful.
This is definitely true in casinos where there are only a couple DD tables, but do you think this is also the case in casinos with a bunch of DD tables? For example M, Station casinos, Silverton etc.
Aces&Eights: I originally had a trip planned for December but unfortunately I had to push the date back. I have now booked a trip for February & I will certainly do a full trip report when I return. (Pictures & all)
