A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack

UPDATE 10/5/2015
This thread was actually converted in to 3 articles posted under the articles section of the Wizard of Vegas site. These articles cover everything in this thread, including thread responses/questions/etc, in a lot more detail. Feel free to check the articles out as well as the thread and post any questions here in the thread or on the actual articles:

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

End Update


Note: After reading through the 99 pages of threads on WoV, 199 pages of threads on Blackjackinfo.com, listening to podcasts/interviews, reading books, I came across a lot of repeating questions over the years that I’d like to try to sum up in to one thread as sort of a beginner “How To.” This thread is for people who’ve heard of card counting, maybe heard a couple terms thrown around, but have no idea how to put the pieces of the puzzle together and/or don’t know where to start. Hopefully it will also teach/remind/point out one or two other things to some intermediate/advanced level players as well. I am a part time counter averaging about 5 hours per week. I have been counting for about 8 years, and can personally tell you I’ve learned most of what I’m about to share by going through the process entirely on my own the first couple years, before finding amazing sites like WoO!

A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack
Basic Strategy
Pick and Practice a Counting System
Illustrious 18 & Fab 4
Define Playing Conditions
Define Bankroll
Define Bet Spread
READ A BOOK
Understand It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint

EDIT: On the first few responses there's been a mention of automatic shufflers. Since it was more than one person to bring it to my attention (Frostie and Dieter) I'll throw it in here to avoid any confusion. DO NOT PLAY AUTOMATIC SHUFFLERS as in general, they can't be counted.

Quote: Romes

Thanks Frostie, and I'm glad you mentioned that. As I've been counting a while it's second nature to skip over some small beginner facts such as this. If I see a shuffler I don't even consider it a game of blackjack and just keep moving on =p.

For any beginners wondering... The reason card counting works is because on each deal, the previous cards used are not re-entered in to the shoe. This creates "state" in the game, where the cards played now effect the cards to come. The most simple example of this is if you have one deck and take all the aces out. Would you take a bet from me that you'll get a blackjack with the remaining cards? Of course you won't, the aces are gone, it's impossible! This again is a simple example showing how the cards played effect the cards remaining. So when automatic shufflers put the cards back together after each deal or two, this ruins the "state" of the game, and thus the new hands have no "memory" of the previously played hands.

Quote: Dieter

"Automatic Shuffler" is different than "Continuous Shuffler". Automatic Shuffler is something like an MD2, MD3, or DeckMate - load a discarded deck in, get a shuffled deck out. Continuous Shuffler is something like a one2six - discards go into the shuffler, and cards are dealt from the shuffler.

END EDIT

Basic Strategy
Basic Strategy is a set way to play the game of blackjack so as to give the player the optimal chance of winning any hand they’re dealt. Any number of basic strategy engines can be taylored to your specific playing rules, but even a basic strategy card from a casino is generally 99% accurate. Memorizing basic strategy is literally just that, memorization. There’s a link later in playing conditions for a basic strategy engine. Make sure you’re memorizing the right strategy for the right game/rules!

Picking and Practice a Counting System
There are many counting systems. Here is a fantastic reference I found on Blackjackinfo.com forums (actually points to Qfit) for their subtle differences: http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm ... I personally recommend the Hi/Low count, even after all of this time. A few others might feel high and mighty with their Uston SS count and their .99 Betting Correlation, but these more complex non-balanced counts will absolutely lead to more time needed training, and more player errors in the long run. The amount you give up in any one category to a more complex count you will make back 10 folds with less player mistakes. The system you’re most comfortable with (i.e. will make the least amount of mistakes with) is the “best” system for you.

Another big reason that I find is often unreferenced is the fact that the majority of other counters generally use Hi/Low as well. Thus, if you look over the questions in this forum (or others), I’d guess that 85% of counting questions have to do with the Hi/Low count. It will be a lot more difficult to get specific questions answered about other less popular counts that fewer people seem to use. A fantastic reference for a quick intro to the Hi/Low system can be found on the Wizards main site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/

I found practicing to be easy and fun, especially with a simpler count system such as Hi/Low. I got my poker chips out, went out and bought a shoe (novelty and not necessary), and was all set up for the real casino experience on my dining room table! First, practice counting in general by running a deck down. Having read up on your count (assuming Hi/Low), you should know that a deck will start and end at 0. Shuffle and pull 1 card out of a deck face down and set it aside (this can also be a cute magic trick at parties after people have been drinking), then flip cards over one at a time and count the rest of the deck. At the end you should know the card previously set aside’s value. When you can do this in under 30 seconds (ideally 20) then try a more advanced method of couting a deck down; flip over 3 cards at a time and count a deck down all the same. This will hopefully teach you the famous “cancelation” principle. When cards are coming out don’t count them one at a time, instead wait for the 2nd round of cards so you can cancel big cards with little cards. There’s a plethora of phone app’s, web app’s, etc, to practice both counting and basic strategy. Here’s some from BlackjackApprenticeship.com: http://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/resources/blackjack-training-drills/. When you can do this consistently (key word) then you’re ready to learn some more advanced things such as indexes. Note: Practice with distractions (tv, convo, radio, etc). Casino’s aren’t quiet!

Illustrious 18 & Fab 4
These are deviations from Basic Strategy based on the count. The reason there’s 18 of them is they were found as the top 18 most valulable index plays. The Fab 4 references the 4 surrenders that are a better play than hitting/standing. There are dozens and hundres of index plays, but the opportunity to use them is less than a fraction of a % of the time because the situations with which they occur (true count +10 for example) are so rare, which is why it’s not wroth learning them for the most part. Again, these are changes in play because the count indicates the composition of the deck has changed (i.e. more ‘big’ or 10 valued cards, or more 2-6 ‘little’ cards). Thus, if a deck has a high composition of 10 valued cards, you’ll want to stand on a hand where you normally wouldn’t (i.e. TC +4, 15 stands to dealer 10). Both the illustrious 18 and fab 4 can be found just about anywhere online, even in the link above to the Hi/Low intro! This is again memorization. It takes no special tallent or skill other than remembering numbers.

Define Playing Conditions
To an extremely new counter this is one of the things I’ve found they often don’t think is too important. They think “I count cards, I can beat any game of Blackjack!” This is simply not true because you’ll find different rules at different casino’s. Hell, you'll find different rules at the SAME casinos! Whether or not you can double on any two cards, double after split, what number of hands you can split to, surrender, or if the dealer hits or stands on soft 17 (A-6) is very important! Enjoy this information provided by the Wizard on his main blackjack page at WoO (note this is in comparison to the benchmark rules 8D, S17, DAS):




Penetration
So one might think, for 6 or 8 decks early surrender or the dealer standing on 17 are commonly the biggest advantages I can get! Wrong again. While these are indeed important the most important ‘rule’ hasn’t even been listed yet; penetration. Penetration is how deep the dealer puts the cut card after a shuffle. So if a dealer cuts off 2 decks of an 8 deck shoe after the shuffle, the game is said to have 75% (6/8) PEN. A game with deeper penetration will yeild more variance in counts as less decks are left and more opportunities to have an advantage, and thus bet bigger. To sum that up again, the more penetration you get, the more opportunities you'll get to bet bigger! You want to find a 6 deck game with 1.5 decks cut off, or less (75%+). An 8 deck game with 2 decks cut off, or less (75%+). A double deck game with atleast 60% penetration (i.e. more than one deck cut off). This is the most valulable rule to the player, then follow the other rules as listed above.

Number of Decks
I want to expand on a playing condition briefly mentioned in the rules set above, which is the number of decks. The fewer the number of decks, the better for the player. Example: 1 deck you are dealt an ace, there are 16 (4x4x1) ten valued cards that could give you blackjack, and 51 cards remaining (dealers card face down not counted yet). Thus, your chances of blackjack after receiving an ace are 16/51 = 31.37%. Change that to an 8 deck game… There are 128 (4x4x8) ten valued cards that could give you blackjack, but this time there are 415 total cards remaining. So your chances of blackjack after receiving an ace are 128/415 = 30.84%. However, most of the lower deck games, such as double deck, quite often come with a higher table minimum. In Vegas however, you can easily find $5 and $10 DD games off the strip. Catch the names/places in threads or consult the Wizards Vegas Survey: https://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey/

Heat
Another playing condition that is not listed is “heat.” This is a term used to describe how much the pit bosses/casino are sweating your action. Some places are notorious for backing players off (El Cortez) if they’re just on a hot streak and not even counting cards! Every casino has a different tollerence for bet spreads, etc. Just as every casino has different tollerence at different betting levels ($10 tables, $25 tables, $50 tables, $100 tables, etc). You might be able to spread 20-1 on the $10 tables, but only be able to spread 8-1 on the $100 tables before getting asked to leave. This is a skill that can only be honed with experience over time. Suggested bet spreads that should get minimal heat will be provided later.

Wonging
While it could be considered by some to be an ‘advanced’ playing condition, I believe it’s just too important not to touch on. Wonging is the art of table hopping at the right time, essentially. It’s jumping on to a table when the count is good and leaving a table or sitting out once a count goes bad. Most casual players, such as myself, don’t hardcore wong (as in back count a table and only sit down in the positive and leave the moment the running count even goes negative). I start at fresh deals, so at 0. I generally will play down to a TC -1 then sit out for a bathroom break, phone call, or tell the dealer “I’ve lost too many in a row, I need a break!” Experience will provide you with endless ploppy excuses to sit out from a negative count, but this is absolutley something you should do. It’s harder to do at double deck games or games that have ‘no mid shoe entry,’ because once you’re out you can’t come back in. However, for any 6 or 8 deck game it should be a standard to not play (whatever excuse you can come up with) when the TC is -1 or worse.

In general when selecting rules, I wouldn’t play tables that are more than .45 house edge. This might be high to some, low to others. It depends on where you live, if you have multiple casino’s near you, or if you’re more/less forced to play slightly poorer rules. Again, this number can be defined with a basic strategy engine. Simply plug in the rules of the game and it will not only tell you the basic strategy, but also the house edge. Here is one from Blackjackinfo.com: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

Define Bankroll & Define Bet Spread
In my opinion, from both my personal experience and having viewed thousands of threads on this forum and others, I most often see that people who are new to counting, or even some mid-level experienced counters (oh no!) have the same questions/issues… “What should my bet spread be?”, and “How much should my bankroll be?” Well here’s the answer!!! …It depends.

Quite often one will define the other. Sometimes playing conditions will define what spread you can get away with, which would drive your bankroll requirements. If you’re not a full time counter (most of us are not) and you’re just taking a trip, then how does that effect your spread/bankroll? I’ll break this down two ways, professionally, and non professionally:

1) Professionally – I’ve read over and over that you should never bet more than 1% of your bankroll as your big bet. I’ve also read over and over that you should have 100x your big bet as your bankroll minimum. Using Kelly Criterion you can determine what your average bet should be, as well as your bet spread. For example, here’s mine for a $10DD game: *Please note this is for a TRIP so it’s slightly more aggressive*



*Note for TC +2 and up the Bet is divided in to 2 hands*


** Bottom Calculations from WoO **

This is for a Vegas trip where I planned to play 3,000 hands. This is also pretty aggressive since it’s a 1-8 spread, but I go to two hands. It’s a trip and I have a lot of places to play in Vegas, so I’m being aggressive. Since I’m not doing this professionally, you might want to search for kewlj or another full time professional’s posts. Perhaps we’ll be lucky enough that they will chime in =D.

I understand these numbers can be quite overwhelming and confusing. Break them down one at a time. First, I used an online calculator (listed above) to get the house edge of the game I'm interested in. Secondly, I looked up the Frequencies in which the hands appear (you can find them in Wong's book, or online by googling 'Blackjack hand frequencies double deck'). Third, I took each TC and calculated the new advantage. I used a more exact method above, but for generics that are pretty close, each TC is worth ~.5%. Thus, if you're playing a 'standard' game where the house edge is -.5%, then when the TC is +1, all you've done is erased their advantage, and you're not yet the favorite! Once you have these factors, the rest are pure calculations. Play with the bet spread you believe you are a) comfortable with, and b) can get away with at the casino. From there the calculations are spelled out, except Gain Per Hand:

Gain ($ Per Hand) = (Bet * Frequency Per 100 Hands) * Advantage... *note: Excel rounds, thus why the image above 'looks' off by a fraction of a percent.


2) Non Professionally – I would consult the Wizards trip ROR calculator to define a bankroll and a risk of ruin (going broke) that you’re comfortable with: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/12/

Again this could be variable… What if you just want to do this part time, so it’s not a trip? Is your bankroll replenishable? It comes down to this: Find out what table limits you are comfortable playing at, pick a spread, and compare. So unlike the advice your mother gave you when you were younger, my advice to you is… play with it! Start out with a 1-15 spread for 6 or 8 decks, and a 1-10 spread for DD, at the limits you want to play. See where you stack up (not actually at the tables, but on paper). Let’s look at an example:

I want to play 6D $10 tables. My starting “unit” or bet is $10. So my big bet on a 1-15 unit spread would be $150. For this spread professionally you would need 150x100, or $15,000 as a minimum bankroll. Given that I’m part time and willing to risk 2% as my big bet though, here I would only need $150x50 = $7,500 (p.s. you should never go more than double kelly – 2%, it then becomes a mathematical certanty that you will eventually bust). If this is too large, then perhaps I’ll take a look at a 1-10 spread so that my big bet is only $100 (understanding that the less you spread the less EV you’re getting). Then I would only need $5,000. If this is still too large you can play with more risk of going broke with a shorter bankroll, but understand that is what you’re doing and that that is absolutely not advised for any level of serious or professional play.

In the end most players jump the gun (overbet their bankrolls) because they’re too excited to play. I say this because that’s exactly what I did. I practiced for hours a night for months, I was a machine. I had $1,000 and found an amazing double deck game that was $25 min bet. So what did I do? I played it… Spreading 8-1 over 2 hands (4-1 each hand). Variance was on my side, and I had 13 winning sessions in a row of at least $300. I later came to realize just how lucky I was (extremely), but my point is, you’ll probably jump the gun a bit too; just don’t expect the same results! For a trip, weekend, or part time player this is “ok” as long as you realize you’re jumping up your odds of going broke big time if you hit a down swing of bad “luck” (variance).

If over all you don’t want to do the math and you just want something that is ‘profitable’ as a part time player I can suggest the following:

6D/8D, HE .45-.55, spread 18-1 over two hands with a bankroll of 50 big bets.
2D, HE .25-.45, spread 16-1 over two hands (if you can get away with it) with a bankroll of 50 big bets.

A VERY simple and very barely profitable spread that would be simple to remember, thus good for practice, would be a 5-1 spread. You shouldn’t get any heat at 6 or 8 deck games either. Whatever the true count is, that should be your bet. TC +1 = 1, TC +2 = 2, TC +3 = 3, etc up to 5 units. Any TC < +1 is the table minimum, 1 unit.

*If you note 18-1 over two hands breaks down to 9-1 per each hand. I like to play $10 tables. This results in two $90 bets. Why? Because the dealer calls “checks play” to alert the pit boss of a big bet at $100 bet or more at my local casino. I found they don’t do that if I bet two hands of $90. These are things you must learn with experience per casino.

Bdc42 (casino surveillance who counts to check players): “first, to not catch heat, you must, in my opinion, wager well under the $100 max bet bankroll. a bet spread of $5 or $10 flat to $100 will work.”


READ A BOOK
The reason I listed this near the bottom is from my own experience. I actually think it was more valulable for me to learn counting through an online intro, practice, learn I18 and F4, try to figure out my bankroll/spread BEFORE reading a book. The reason being is I feel I took so much more away from the books I’ve read after having some base knowledge on the subject. They provided me with a ton of “ah ha!” moments to the long standing questions I had and other I wouldn’t have even known existed had I read them before learning things on my own. If you read them as a beginner I’m sure there will be several things that will go over your head and you might feel like they’re just throwing crazy numbers at you from out of no where (maybe you even feel like that now)! With a base knowledge in the subject you’ll at least be able to figure out what they’re talking about or where numbers came from. I would highly recommend the books I’ve read: Ed Thorp’s Beat the Dealer, Standford Wong’s Professional Blackjack, and Lawrence Revere’s Playing Blackjack as a Business. For my opinion Wong has the best when it comes to raw numbers, but I thoroughly enjoyed reading Thorp’s stories of how it all began, the back off’s, the cheating, etc. That’s where I recommend starting.

Understand It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Whether you’re a trip, weekend, part time, or professional player you must understand some things that most new players come to the subject not knowing:

- This is not a get rich quick scheme. You will not make millions of dollars (especially non professionals).

- Keep track/statistics of your play! This can be an indicator of your play after a while. How many hours you’ve played, what your bankroll started at and is currently, average house edge, average session win/loss, etc.

- Counting is a bit alienating. If you don’t have a partner/friend doing it with you, then you spend a lot of time going to casino’s on your own. When you’re at the casino you’re not yourself… You’re acting like a ploppy there to lose money. When your friends don’t understand the math or the game they might look at you as a degenerate gambler, so you’ll generally not tell them you go to the casino every weekend. At first this second ‘secret’ life is exciting, but after a while it gets lonely; hence why we congrigate to the forums =p.

- You will lose more hands than you win. You’re set up to lose ~48% of the time, push ~9% of the time, and win only ~43% of the time. That’s just the math of the game from the first card dealt ( https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/ ). The reason the game is profitable is because you exploit situations that are favorable to the player. So you lose a lot of small bets, but win enough large bets in the long run to come out ahead.

- You shouldn’t expect to “win more often” in super positive counts. The dealer will bust more often, you will get more 20’s and blackjacks (so will the dealer), but do not think because the TC is +5 that you are a huuuuge favorite to win your next hand. You’re not. You’re a smaaaaaaaal favorite, something like 52.7%. This means that 47.3% of the time you’re still going to lose or push, even in large counts.

- You must have a tollerence for swings of bad luck (variance). As stated previously even in a positive count you’re still going to lose or push ~48% of the time. This can be frustrating after counting for hours for a positive shoe then losing all your big bets. This can be maddening when you have losing streaks that go for days, weeks, or even months (kelwj is a professional and had a 6 month losing streak, but still turned a yearly profit, yikes)! I have lost for months as well. You WILL question whether or not counting works. You WILL question whether or not you’re doing it correctly, and you SHOULD question these things to be constantly re-evaluating your play.

- This is a system that provides you on average a couple percent advantage. Thus, over the course of “the long run” (estimated at 1,000 hours for one standard deviation from my readings) you will grind out a profit over the casino’s. If you are not a professional then you should do this for your own reasons, but one of them should not be to become rich. I personally do it for fun (I have a math minor and enjoy probabilities). I’m rather competitive and I love beating casino’s that stack the odds against the player. I love using my brain to flip those odds back at the casino. I do it because I believe casino’s prey on the weak minded. I do it for the cat and mouse game knowing I’m doing something they don’t like, and they’re trying to catch me. I do it for the comps, because after beating the casino having them give me free things to try to keep me playing (because they think I’m a losing player like most others) is just ironic justice.

Lastly, I do it because it’s a great life experience. It’s taught me a tremendous amount about risk/reward, business, investing, patients, and statistics/probability. Not a lot of people can say they were comped rooms at luxorious hotels, given free food, drinks, and then took to the floor betting anywere from $10-$200 per one hand of Blackjack (I’m just a red chipper), and that they were the favorite! I’ve paid for my last 6/7 Vegas trips that I shared with girlfriends, friends, and/or family. While I doubt I’ll ever play the game professionally, as long as they don’t continue butchering the games beyond being playable, I’ll continue to play the game as one of my many hobbies, and I invite you to do the same.


Now, you’re ready to hit the tables

Perhaps after some real experience you’ll be ready for the advanced techniques and new games (such as Scavenger Plays, Cover, Flashers, Rat Holing, etc, and Blackjack Variants or Promotions).

Clearly you put a lot of work into this. Thanks.

One thing I don't get is saying that counting is easy. Maybe it comes easy to some.

BS I have down 99%. 100% except that I have to 'think' sometimes, not automatic yet.

But I can say with fair confidence I can forget counting. It would take a dedication in time and effort that is nowhere in sight.

This is a great thread!
There are indeed different rules in different casino's, sometimes very subtle like allowing to surrender except when the dealer has an ace. Another important one is to how many hands you can split, and if you're allowed to double after a split :)

On the topic of card counting, for the beginner it is worth to mention that continuous shuffle machines make card counting useless, so for a card counter tables with CSM's aren't worth playing. (In Europe, casinos are full of those things!)

I don't know how to count cards yet, but I believe anyone will be able to keep a running count. However, I think keeping the true count (running count divided by decks remaining) can be much more difficult in a casino environment with lots of distraction.

Quote: odiousgambit

Clearly you put a lot of work into this. Thanks. One thing I don't get is saying that counting is easy. Maybe it comes easy to some.

I think most counters quickly say counting is easy because at it's most simple form, it's just +1 and -1, so it is VERY easy. You are correct that putting it all together takes time, dedication, and tons of practice, which I mention a couple times :).

Quote: FrostieFingerz

This is a great thread! On the topic of card counting, for the beginner it is worth to mention that continuous shuffle machines make card counting useless, so for a card counter tables with CSM's aren't worth playing. (In Europe, casinos are full of those things!)

Thanks Frostie, and I'm glad you mentioned that. As I've been counting a while it's second nature to skip over some small beginner facts such as this. If I see a shuffler I don't even consider it a game of blackjack and just keep moving on =p.

For any beginners wondering... The reason card counting works is because on each deal, the previous cards used are not re-entered in to the shoe. This creates "state" in the game, where the cards played now effect the cards to come. The most simple example of this is if you have one deck and take all the aces out. Would you take a bet from me that you'll get a blackjack with the remaining cards? Of course you won't, the aces are gone, it's impossible! This again is a simple example showing how the cards played effect the cards remaining. So when automatic shufflers put the cards back together after each deal or two, this ruins the "state" of the game, and thus the new hands have no "memory" of the previously played hands.

Quote: odiousgambit

Clearly you put a lot of work into this. Thanks.

One thing I don't get is saying that counting is easy. Maybe it comes easy to some.

BS I have down 99%. 100% except that I have to 'think' sometimes, not automatic yet.

But I can say with fair confidence I can forget counting. It would take a dedication in time and effort that is nowhere in sight.

The more you count the better you become. Counting is as natural to me as breathing. I can easily do it while dealing with all the distractions of a live casino. If I use Hi-Lo I can count two tables simultaneously. I assure you I don't bring any extraordinary skills to the table but I do bring discipline, patience and attention to detail.

Perhaps you haven't found the right count. There are several to choose from that will get the money. You're not attempting a level 2 count are you?

Quote: Romes

you should have 100x your big bet as your bankroll minimum

Note that this doesn't mean you can't play with less - it means you're flirting with a high "risk of ruin".

If someone wanted to table hop aggressively on a $1000 bankroll and a ($0)/$5/$10 bet spread, it's possible. A grind, but possible.

"You guys mind if I sit in for 2 hands?" - an amazingly useful phrase.

Very informative!!! A great read indeed

Quote: Dieter

Note that this doesn't mean you can't play with less - it means you're flirting with a high "risk of ruin".

If someone wanted to table hop aggressively on a $1000 bankroll and a ($0)/$5/$10 bet spread, it's possible. A grind, but possible.

"You guys mind if I sit in for 2 hands?" - an amazingly useful phrase.

Thanks for making another great point about Wonging =). There are definitely ways to play with lower funds, but they might be more of a grind. Personally to new players I'd recommend not playing with a lower amount like this. Instead, save more for a bankroll and use that time to PRACTICE! You can never practice enough.

The 100 max bet bankroll comes from the days when we didn't have computers to simulate everything. I always had more. Today we can enter all the data for a game and run a sim that will accurately determine our optimum bankroll. It will vary. I still like 100 max bets and I still refer to it. It has good shock value. When someone playing $5 and spreading properly asks what their bankroll should be, the look on their face is priceless. "What do you mean I need $8,000 to play a $5 table"?

Obviously, you put a lot of time and effort into this 'project', Romes. It's a good read and useful as a reference piece to newer players, with some useful information in one convenient place.

After reading through it once, I did have a couple thoughts. The first, 1BB, has already brought up....the 100 max bet 'rule'. It was only a guideline type generalization from back in the day before simulations were so common. It really has outlived it's usefulness. Today it's really about simulations and risk of ruin, which you chose to leave that most important term (RoR) out.

Second and very much related is that you mentioned this 100 max bet rule in the 'non-professional' section, stating that a professional player would play with 100 max bets. I don't know any professional player that plays by that guideline. That would result in a RoR greater than any professional player would be comfortable with.

The final thing that caught my attention is the use of 'unit', and various spreads. But you didn't go into how those spreads are ramped. I personally don't like the to use the word unit when referring to my small wager, because that sort of infers that you raise your wagers by that amount. In this case, you would raising your wagers in increments of $10. $10-$20-$30-$40 and so forth. If that's the case you won't get to your larger bets until it is too late. Those counts will occur far too infrequently to do you any good.

In today's shoe games with less favorable conditions than when many of the reference books still popular were written, a player needs to have his top wager out by true count of +4 or +5 at the latest. That means to get from, say minimum wager of $10 to a max of say $160, you must raise by more than $10 increments. Therefore I don't like calling that $10 my 'unit'. It is misleading and if players actually raise by that amount they will never get where they need to be.

I don't mean to be critical, just some thoughts that popped into my head. Perhaps I am thinking above the level of the newer players that you are targeting. Again, overall, I think the information you provided in one convenient spot, may be very useful to many newer players.

Quote: aceofspades

Very informative!!! A great read indeed

it does seem to me that someone who gives the casinos as much action as you do ... well ... will we hear that you get more serious about counting? At your level I would have to consider it, but it also occurs to me that you love the comps etc that might come with clearly being 'this guy is no AP'. Well, what do I really know about you? Would love to hear your thoughts.

Quote: 1BB

Perhaps you haven't found the right count. There are several to choose from that will get the money. You're not attempting a level 2 count are you?

To give respect to your attention, which I appreciate, I have to no doubt disappoint you by saying I have started out with an "ace-five" thing only to realize the distraction of trying to do BS was absorbing all my attention. Certainly nothing else has even been considered.

Quote: kewlj

After reading through it once, I did have a couple thoughts. The first, 1BB, has already brought up....the 100 max bet 'rule'. It was only a guideline type generalization from back in the day before simulations were so common. It really has outlived it's usefulness. Today it's really about simulations and risk of ruin, which you chose to leave that most important term (RoR) out.

2) "I would consult the Wizards trip ROR calculator to define a bankroll and a risk of ruin (going broke) that you’re comfortable with:"

"Then I would only need $5,000. If this is still too large you can play with more risk of going broke with a shorter bankroll, but understand that is what you’re doing and that that is absolutely not advised for any level of serious or professional play."

"For a trip, weekend, or part time player this is “ok” as long as you realize you’re jumping up your odds of going broke big time if you hit a down swing of bad “luck” (variance)."

This is why I was hoping the professionals such as yourself would chime in =). Obviously I'm not a professional and don't know what the current pro's are comfortable with exactly. I've just always read this in the past, so I'm glad you're making note that it isn't exactly accurate anymore.

I make a reference to RoR, but it's simpler to the complete newbie to just say going broke. I was a professional poker player through college, actually making good money, but opted not to trade blows with variance when I received my degree so I gave it up. There was RoR in poker as well, obviously, but even there most players used the term "going broke" (perhaps this is why I opted towards it as well). I understand anyone who's played the game with any kind of seriousness, especially a pro such as yourself, is completely comfortable with the term RoR. I was just trying to introduce the verbiage, but keep it to a minimum to keep everything relate-able and not have newbies thinking I was just throwing terms around they've never seen =P.

Quote: kewlj

The final thing that caught my attention is the use of 'unit', and various spreads. But you didn't go into how those spreads are ramped... Therefore I don't like calling that $10 my 'unit'. It is misleading and if players actually raise by that amount they will never get where they need to be.

Thank you for re-enforcing this idea of ramping the spread. This is the reason I included the image of my excel calculations showing my exact bet spread and how it's ramped. There was so much detail for beginners that I wanted to include, I was hoping showing the ramp would be a little self-explanatory, but you're probably right. To the new player this might need explained a bit further.

Quote: kewlj

I don't mean to be critical, just some thoughts that popped into my head. Perhaps I am thinking above the level of the newer players that you are targeting. Again, overall, I think the information you provided in one convenient spot, may be very useful to many newer players.

I welcome the critical thoughts and aspects from a well established professional such as yourself! You are correct. This was an attempt to put a lot of the 'pieces' of the puzzle together in one location. I've seen hundreds and thousands of questions all broken up all over different forums asking questions that I tried to contain in just this one location. As you mentioned it's definitely not targeted towards players such as yourself, whom definitely know a lot more than me on the topic. It was geared to people who know either a) nothing, b) don't know where to start, or c) tried to get in to it and felt overwhelmed because there is no 'comprehensive' guide. This is also why I didn't want to get in to some of the other detailed topics I mentioned at the bottom of the thread. It's just enough to actually arm players as properly as possible without overload/overkill (I hope =p).

Thanks again for your feedback! It's always welcome.

Quote: Romes

Thank you for re-enforcing this idea of ramping the spread. This is the reason I included the image of my excel calculations showing my exact bet spread and how it's ramped. There was so much detail for beginners that I wanted to include, I was hoping showing the ramp would be a little self-explanatory, but you're probably right. To the new player this might need explained a bit further.

Oh, you are showing your betting ramp. Was that there when I first read or was it edited in? Maybe I missed it first time. If so, my bad.

Anyway according to the ramp, I would conclude your unit is $40. That is the amount you wager at roughly .5% advantage and the amount you increase at roughly the same .5% advantage intervals. That is exactly the way today's shoe games need to be attacked.

Again, good job.

Quote: 1BB

"What do you mean I need $8,000 to play a $5 table"?

A sweet little old lady was playing with me one evening. She was making some idle chit-chat about how she'd like to learn how to count cards.

I mentioned something about how I'd looked into it and "decided it wasn't for me, since I just liked playing"... and asked if she had $10,000 she could afford to lose, just so she could place a $100 bet.

She blanched. Priceless look of shock and horror on her face. She was suddenly very happy playing "just" nickels and sometimes going home with a few extra bucks.

Quote: kewlj

Oh, you are showing your betting ramp. Was that there when I first read or was it edited in? Maybe I missed it first time. If so, my bad.

Anyway according to the ramp, I would conclude your unit is $40. That is the amount you wager at roughly .5% advantage and the amount you increase at roughly the same .5% advantage intervals. That is exactly the way today's shoe games need to be attacked.

Again, good job.

It was there =). That's one of the many reasons I decided to show the excel image of my calculations. I was hoping the picture really was worth 1,000 words =P. Sorry for any ambiguity it may have caused. Thanks again for the feedback!

Quote: Dieter

... and asked if she had $10,000 she could afford to lose, just so she could place a $100 bet. She blanched. Priceless look of shock and horror on her face...

Haha, I remember the horror on MY OWN face the first time years ago I read about large bankroll requirements. At the time I wanted to get in to blackjack to make 'some' extra money and thought to myself "If I already had $10,000 I wouldn't need to play blackjack!" lol.

I don't see a brief explanation of "why it works". Perhaps that should be included. Something like

Quote: me

Card counting can be a useful technique in any game where multiple rounds are played between shuffles. Card counting is effective because once a card has been played and discarded, it is no longer available during subsequent rounds of play before the shuffle. This means that card counting is ineffective against games where a continuous shuffler is employed, or games where the cards are shuffled after every round of play. Other games where different forms of card counting might be employed include euchre (tracking the bowers and trump ace) and hearts (tracking the ace, king, and queen of spades).

Yes, that ought to be included in any of the further training materials the new counter is likely to study, but I know you'd feel bad if someone came back and said "I just don't seem to win - I counted this CSM game up to a ridiculous RC, and increased my bet, but..."

Mention of other games is included to provide some common ground for the new player. Tracking 3 cards in a 24 (or 52) card game isn't so hard, so why should keeping a simplified count of 40 cards in a 52 card game be so hard?

Quote: Dieter

I don't see a brief explanation of "why it works".

Couple posts down on page one =). Frostie commented on it and made a mention of automatic shufflers.

Quote: Romes

Thanks Frostie, and I'm glad you mentioned that. As I've been counting a while it's second nature to skip over some small beginner facts such as this. If I see a shuffler I don't even consider it a game of blackjack and just keep moving on =p.

For any beginners wondering... The reason card counting works is because on each deal, the previous cards used are not re-entered in to the shoe. This creates "state" in the game, where the cards played now effect the cards to come. The most simple example of this is if you have one deck and take all the aces out. Would you take a bet from me that you'll get a blackjack with the remaining cards? Of course you won't, the aces are gone, it's impossible! This again is a simple example showing how the cards played effect the cards remaining. So when automatic shufflers put the cards back together after each deal or two, this ruins the "state" of the game, and thus the new hands have no "memory" of the previously played hands.

I think I will edit the OP though to include this near the top, just to be sure everyone is aware of it. Thanks for illustrating that it wasn't exactly talked about in the OP. If a couple of you guys noticed, I'm sure a complete newbie might gloss over the Automatic Shufflers!

Quote: Romes

I'm sure a complete newbie might gloss over the Automatic Shufflers!

More anecdote... a guy I met one day was telling me he didn't realize the game was a CSM. He just thought it was a funny looking shoe. He had just sat down at an available table...

Couldn't get any decent hands. He patiently waited for a shuffle, to get a clean set of cards. He eventually asked the dealer "How long does this shoe go on?"

I believe there was some swearing...


"Automatic Shuffler" is different than "Continuous Shuffler". Automatic Shuffler is something like an MD2, MD3, or DeckMate - load a discarded deck in, get a shuffled deck out. Continuous Shuffler is something like a one2six - discards go into the shuffler, and cards are dealt from the shuffler.

No, I'm not trying to advertise for Bally... I just can't think of another shuffler at the moment (other than Shuffle Tech, which - while interesting, isn't a product I want to endorse. (I can shuffle better and faster, and I'm not a dealer.)).

Quote: Romes

DO NOT PLAY AUTOMATIC SHUFFLERS as in general, they can't be counted.



- You will lose more hands than you win. You’re set up to lose ~48% of the time, push ~9% of the time, and win only ~43% of the time.

- You shouldn’t expect to “win more often” in super positive counts. You’re a smaaaaaaaal favorite, something like 52.7%. This means that 47.3% of the time you’re still going to lose or push, even in large counts.

- As stated previously even in a positive count you’re still going to lose or push ~48% of the time. This can be frustrating after counting for hours for a positive shoe then losing all your big bets.

1) I count auto shufflers all the time. I try to avoid continuous shufflers.

2) Aren't these the numbers I quoted that you told me were wrong?

3) What?? My win % goes from 43% to 52.7 at +5, but I shouldn't expect to win more often? Somethin is wrong here.

Romes... Thanks for all you hard work. That was an amazing CONTRIBUTION to this forum

Thanks Scan, I'm glad you found it useful (to either yourself or the forums). I hope more people reference it for the simple and intermediate questions they may have. Really just trying to get a lot of info in 1 place...

This probably seems like a dumb question, but when doubling down do you have to take into account the table limits? For example, if I've bet $100 on a $100 max stake table does that mean I can't double down?

Quote: Looterman

This probably seems like a dumb question, but when doubling down do you have to take into account the table limits? For example, if I've bet $100 on a $100 max stake table does that mean I can't double down?

I don't think that's a dumb question. However, the max bet generally is an amount only pertaining to the base bet, and doesn't stop you from splitting/doubling/betting the Play or any other continuation bet on that particular game. I could be wrong, and certainly there are casinos out there who might try to shut you down that way, but I'm talking about common practice in my experience.

For example, the max bet on UTH is the Ante. However, to play the game, you have to bet the Blind at an equal amount at the same time, then to stay in, you have to bet 1x to 4x the Ante as well, on the Play spot. On Let It Ride, the max bet is the amount you place on one of the three circles, but you must bet the same amount on each, then decide whether to take back either or both of the other circles, so if you get a pat hand, you've bet 3x the max just playing the game properly.

Quote: Looterman

This probably seems like a dumb question, but when doubling down do you have to take into account the table limits? For example, if I've bet $100 on a $100 max stake table does that mean I can't double down?

Babs is absolutely correct. While I wouldn't put it past some 'gas station casino' to possibly pull this... I personally have never even seen a casino do that. The max bet pertains to your base bet, as babs mentioned. So when they say $100 max bet, if you're allowed to split up to 3 hands, you could potentially have $600 on the table (split/double, split/double, split/double) =).

Quote: Romes

There’s a plethora of phone app’s, web app’s, etc, to practice both counting and basic strategy.

I love the referenced URL for the web, but to the community: is there one iPad app people recommend, for tutoring HiLo count, over another?

I need to practice, practice, practice...

Quote: IndyJeffrey

I love the referenced URL for the web, but to the community: is there one iPad app people recommend, for tutoring HiLo count, over another?

I need to practice, practice, practice...

Yep, there's so many I couldn't even begin to review/reference them all =p. Most any app that works on the phone also works great for an iPad. A lot of them are free, some of them are a dollar or two (pretty small investment for something that if not done properly could cost you a LOT of money). Overall, just know that the majority of them are the same. Just review and try to find an app that lets you have the most control... It lets you set the number of decks, penetration, keeps the count for you to reference to 'check' yourself, tells you if you make a basic strategy error, etc, etc. Here's a list of about 20 apps that should be fine on either a phone or iPad: http://appadvice.com/appguides/show/card-counting

Perfect. Thank you Romes. -- IJ

+1 on the great contribution Romes......and I am purchasing Card Counter as I type this!

And for those of us whose phone still has red, green, yellow and white wires attached to the back of it? What windows-based, desktop computer app would you recommend?

CVBJ. period Qfit.com has details.

Quote: 98Clubs

CVBJ. period Qfit.com has details.

100%. You can even try it free for a few weeks.

Excellent work, Romes! I recommended this thread in another one this morning. I would like to suggest a mention of the Wizard's The Ace/Five Count. It offers a simple card counting strategy that beginners can adapt immediately with virtually no learning curve, kind of like "training wheels." It can give beginners a taste of what it takes to card count. If a beginner doesn't have the discipline or focus needed to use the Ace/Five count they needn't waste their time trying to learn a better, more complex method. It is a nice alternative to boredom of flat-betting. It truly gives the player an advantage, unlike progressive betting schemes.

So ive seen all over the place on here that you need a minimum bet spread of like 1-10 on shoe games and smaller on singe/double deck games in order to "beat" the game. Would one be losing money if you were spreading 1-5 like you said?

Also in your betting ramp break down, I know you spread to two hands at +2, but just one hand the progression would go 10, 15, 20, 40, 60, 80. Why not 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, 80? Why after betting 20 do you jump to 40 right away instead of keeping it going in a 5 progression (10, 15, 20)? Is it because jumping $20 is less conspicuous than $30?

Quote: gav

So ive seen all over the place on here that you need a minimum bet spread of like 1-10 on shoe games and smaller on singe/double deck games in order to "beat" the game. Would one be losing money if you were spreading 1-5 like you said?

Also in your betting ramp break down, I know you spread to two hands at +2, but just one hand the progression would go 10, 15, 20, 40, 60, 80. Why not 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, 80? Why after betting 20 do you jump to 40 right away instead of keeping it going in a 5 progression (10, 15, 20)? Is it because jumping $20 is less conspicuous than $30?

Phenomenal questions... I'll take them one at a time:

1) You don't have to have any 1 specific bet spread. I suggest a minimum 1-10 because for most of the deteriorating game conditions, 1-10 is at least 'slightly' worth your time. The best approach is to play with your spread for the game you want to play (keeping in mind your bankroll requirements). If you know you have a max bankroll of X, then that will drive your minimum and maximum bets. After that you just kind of fill in the blanks ramping your bets up to your max bet (which you should have out by TC +5, or TC +4 if you're slightly more aggressive).

A 1-5 spread could be 'profitable', pending the game. I know one game near me is 8D H17 no surrender so it has a house edge of like .66%. A 1-5 spread (where my bet = TC as given in example previously) on this game yields me $1.83 per hour. While "technically" I don't plan to lose money in the long run, I don't exactly consider this "profitable." The 1-5 spread is more for practicing spreading in a live casino environment... Unless you're playing black chips at a double deck table or a great 6D game, because then you could move the decimal place and make a bit more money per hour. So again, I hope you see this depends on the game you're playing as well. For the same 8D H17 game above, if you spread 1-10 (TC +1 = 10, TC +2 = 30, TC +3 = 50, TC +4 = 70, TC +5 = 100) this would yield $7.32 per hour. Again, this is less than minimum wage, but I suppose it is untaxed =p.

Now that same 1-10 spread at a better game, say S17 late surrender, would in turn yield $13.23 per hour. Do you see how just playing a better game effects your hourly EV by over $5/hour?? This is why finding good game conditions and then spreading hard on them is important to MAXIMIZE your profits and EV. Now imagine you spread 1-15 at this better game... EV = $21.20 per hour... Getting to some okay money now, huh? Especially if you wong in or out and try to avoid those negative counts.

2) Again, your spread is mostly determined by just a couple things. 1... your max bet can be determined by your bankroll and how much RoR you want to play with (which is covered in the OP). Past that the real pro's will optimize their spread according to the True Count Frequencies (Frequency per 100 hands). A quick example of this is TC +3 and TC +4... While everyone in the world would think TC +4 is more profitable at face value (why not, it's 2% compared to 1.5% more favorable) TC +3 is actually more profitable because it appears more often! In a 6D game TC +3 appears ~4 hands out of 100, where TC +4 appears 2.3 hands per 100. Thus, while you do have a bigger advantage at TC +4, it's actually better to get that bet upped at TC +3 which is going to make you more money in the long run. The best way to tell is by looking at the Gain Per Hand after you play with the spread and try to maximize your gain per hand given your min/max bet.

There is no set spread. After you define your min/max you can really make it whatever you want. I choose to usually up it by the same amount to make it seem like I'm a "progressive player." These are the non-counters whom after they win up their bet by some specific denomination. I like to use this as cover as I slowly work up my spread and before the house knows it I was betting $10/hand and now I'm betting $150/hand because I didn't just jump straight from 10 to 150 but incremented up my spread.

I also want to note that in my example spread I don't have any set increment, it grows geometrically. So first I up my bet by $5, then $25, then $40, then $40, then $40 to my max bet. You definitely don't have to increment by the same amount each time. DO NOTE... My biggest jump (+$40) is first at TC +3 =)... as that's where you start to get in to good profitable hands at more than a 1% advantage.


I could drone on and on about bet spreads, but to be honest I truly believe the best way to develop your bet spread is by defining your bankroll, which defines your max bet, then you know your min and your max... Just play with the in between in some sort of progressive fashion taking note of the Gain Per Hand. The more you get used to these numbers the more you'll be able to tweak them to get the most out of your spread you possibly can. I hope I answered your questions and didn't get too generic. Please let me know if you still have any confusion.

***All hourly EV's were obtained by simply pulling open that spreadsheet and just changing the spread, then watching all the other numbers update themselves =).

EDIT: Given the optimal spread for someone depends on their game available and their bankroll, would you mind sharing these? From this I can easily show you what I would consider your best/optimal bet spread/ramp would be.

Quote: Romes

Given the optimal spread for someone depends on their game available and their bankroll, would you mind sharing these? From this I can easily show you what I would consider your best/optimal bet spread/ramp would be.

Im currently building a bankroll. Im just minding my time to practice and get all these questions out of the way.

My local place has a 3-2, 6d, DAS, RSA, resplit up to 3, double anything no surrender. Decent penetration with certain dealers.

Say my BR was $2500, would 1-5 be okay? Red chips? Of course not much money to make money but i intend to play and keep growing my BR by other means of income.

Quote: gav

Im currently building a bankroll. Im just minding my time to practice and get all these questions out of the way.

My local place has a 3-2, 6d, DAS, RSA, resplit up to 3, double anything no surrender. Decent penetration with certain dealers.

Say my BR was $2500, would 1-5 be okay? Red chips? Of course not much money to make money but i intend to play and keep growing my BR by other means of income.

What's decent pen? 75%? 87%?

What you should really do, is check out CVCX and CVBJ on qfit.com. That way you know your skills are top notch, and you're aware of how much you expect to make per hour.

Quote: gav

Im currently building a bankroll. Im just minding my time to practice and get all these questions out of the way.

My local place has a 3-2, 6d, DAS, RSA, resplit up to 3, double anything no surrender. Decent penetration with certain dealers.

Say my BR was $2500, would 1-5 be okay? Red chips? Of course not much money to make money but i intend to play and keep growing my BR by other means of income.

Quote: RS

What's decent pen? 75%? 87%?

What you should really do, is check out CVCX and CVBJ on qfit.com. That way you know your skills are top notch, and you're aware of how much you expect to make per hour.

Solid advice from RS, but I too previously found for someone in the beginning steps CVCX/CVBJ can be a bit overwhelming with lots of numbers. This is something I would definitely recommend getting in to after a good knowledge of how to calculate your EV, so you know what the different metrics are and what they mean, thus when you see a ton of them on CVCX you'll be able to actually interpret them and do something useful with the data.

1) Would 1-5 spread be okay on a 2500 bankroll? Let's see =)...
$2500 bankroll, your big bet could be $25, because you'd want to have 100 big bets in your bankroll. Yes, yes, as others might say, you can SIM the game to find a more accurate bankroll for low Risk of Ruin (RoR = going completely broke), but 100xmax bets has been around for a long time and is a good rule of thumb when not running specific SIMs. If you're going to become proficient right now and look to go pro later, I would highly suggest running a SIM of your specific games to better get your bankroll requirements for professional play.

Oddly enough, this would allow for you to have a 1-5 spread while have very low RoR, as 25 = 5xmin bet(5)... So there's your answer to question 1. Yes, you could spread 1-5 on that game with a $2500 bankroll.

2) Is spreading 1-5 profitable/worth it?

I think every beginner counter should make at least a few casino trips using this spread. After all the hours of intense practice, when you think you're really ready to put money on the line in the casino, I think the next step is to deploy the 1-5 spread. Do note, this is NOT to make money, this is NOT to build your bankroll... This is to give you LIVE experience actually counting, calculating true counts and actually implementing your bet spread. You might be able to go "Okay, TC is +3, that means I bet $15..." But then you have to reach down, grab the chips, and put them in the circle without looking awkward about it. You learn little things like: When you know the TC is changing this round and you might up your bet next round, if you win the hand pull your ENTIRE bet back while you think of what you want to bet instead of grabbing chips to ADD to the circle. Why? Because if there's chips in the circle and you're "thinking" then the dealer will just start dealing and you'll miss out on betting bigger. Now if you pull your bet completely out of the circle while you decide what to bet then the dealer will wait for you to bet what you want.

These small things to me are the reason one should use the 1-5 spread; not to make money or build a bankroll. In fact, let's look at just how much big money you'd be making at that game with a 1-5 ($5-$25) spread...

1) The Wizards online calculator shows the game has a house edge of: .57% (assuming H17, since you did not specify).
2) Plug in the .57% to the excel doc I showed earlier, and adjust by .5% for each True Count.
3) Update your bet spread to follow the True Count (TC 0 = $5, TC +1 = $5, TC +2 = $10, TC +3 = $15, TC +4 = $20, TC +5 = $25, TC >+5 = $25).

The rest of the spread sheet will automatically update itself if you created it like I explained. Then you can look at your "Total Gain." This is the amount you stand to make per 100 hands you play (which at decent conditions can be taken generically as 1 hour)... Thus, after Steps 1, 2, and 3, one could say you stand to make $1.39 per hour playing that game, with that spread.

If you make a mistake or two per hour (which newer people do) or if you only get 70 hands per hour (instead of 100) you're not even making money at this table. Hell, if you're getting 70 hands per hour AND you make 1 or 2 mistakes an hour, then you're LOSING money at this game! This is the common pit fall most new counters fall in to. The most dangerous thing you can do is "think" you have a winning game and play for hours and hours and days when really you have a losing game! The difference with using the excel sheet like I just did is you know when you have a winning game!

Suggestion
Given you want to play a 3/2 6D game with .57% HE, and you have a $2500 bankroll... If you're planning to build your bankroll you can play off of your theoretical bankroll. I.E. If you're going to put $250/month in to your bankroll until you get to $5,000, then you can play as though you have a $5,000 bankroll right now (so long as you DO in fact continue putting $250/mo in to your bankroll).

Right now my partner and I are playing out of a theoretical bankroll of $32,000. Do we have $32k on hand? Nope... But we usually take about $2k per trip to the casino (which is plenty for a trip and our level/spread), and if we lose it, we'll pull out another $2k for the next trip. If we don't have the money, we'll save for a little bit, then make the next trip. All the math we're doing right now we understand that theoretically we could have to go $30,000 in (and our RoR is <1%). Please be careful with this though... It's not the same as saying "I have a theoretical bankroll of $1 million! Start spreading blacks!" You have to be willing to play up to your theoretical bankroll (by refunding it if you lose what you have on hand).

My honest suggestion is to wait and practice more while you build your bankroll. Then, when you think you're a robot, practice more. NOT just with the cards! I wouldn't advise ANYONE to go play for real money in a casino if they can't even make the simple spread sheet in my OP and figure out what their EV is going to be. You should know if you go play for 3 hours at that game exactly what your EV is. After you can do that, AND you've practiced until you're a robot, then you're ready to put real money on the line.

If you do want to play the theoretical $5k approach... I would suggest the following:
TC <+2 = $5
TC +2 = $20
TC +3 = $40
TC +4 = $60
TC +5 = $80
TC >+5 = $80

Given the game above, this would provide you with an EV of about $8/hour. Okay, so what does this mean...
1) theoretical bankroll of $5k must be funded if you lose the $2500 you have on hand.
2) You're playing with slightly higher RoR by playing 62.5 max bets (5000/80), but I think you should be fine to get a start and understand things while making 'a little' money to try to build your bankroll. While not looking up the actual numbers I'd take my educated guess that by playing 62.5 max bets you're RoR goes up from 1% to something like 5-10% (thus 90-95% of the time you're still safe from going completely broke).
3) Per trip I would take $500 (1/10th your theoretical bankroll). My partner and I take about 1/20th of ours per trip.
4) Understand you're expecting about $8/hour playing this game. You might have a winning trip of $300-$400, but you might also have a losing trip where you dump your trip roll of $500. Just know that if you did that for the rest of your life, you'd average out at making $8 per hour you play.

Any more questions please feel free to ask. Sorry for the long post, there's just so much that comes to mind and I have a tough time filtering it out for 'newer' players because I want you to know as much as possible =).

Thanks for all the wisdom. So now im curious where in S.W " Pro BJ" you got your numbers. Since the one thing I havent done is figured out my EV for games Im gonna play; I'd like to make my own sheet.

Also, with the "100 Max bets", how much RoR does that come out to? Like with my BR of 2500 with the 1-5 spread? Should the RoR be the same as say 1-15 with the 100 max bets red chipping?

Quote: gav

Thanks for all the wisdom. So now im curious where in S.W " Pro BJ" you got your numbers. Since the one thing I havent done is figured out my EV for games Im gonna play; I'd like to make my own sheet.

I'd highly encourage you to make your own sheet =). I have a different sheet for each of the main shops I visit (since their rules just slightly differ from place to place). This way I don't have to constantly update 1 sheet. I just pull that place open, and if I need to modify the spread (if I'm trying something new/etc). Then when I have a new place I want to play I just pull open the closest sheet and modify that one then save it for the new place.

Quote: gav

Also, with the "100 Max bets", how much RoR does that come out to? Like with my BR of 2500 with the 1-5 spread? Should the RoR be the same as say 1-15 with the 100 max bets red chipping?

Risk of Ruin, summed up in to words, is essentially finding your average bet, the number of times you're going to make that bet, and the standard deviations surrounding your action. Basically, it's similar to a bell curve when it comes to standard deviation. You have your expected value, plus or minus some number. Well that number is your standard deviation. 1 standard deviation comes with ~68% confidence, 2 SD's comes with 95%, 3 SD's comes with 99.5% confidence. Without trying to confuse you too much if you're not familiar with the terms, this means you're trying to figure out both your best case (right side of the bell curve) and worst case (left side of the bell curve) scenarios. This is useful for Risk of Ruin because we want to know if we have enough bank roll to withstand the "worst case scenario."

Example: You want to spread 1-10 ($10-$100) at a 6 deck game. I plugged that spread in to my spreadsheet... The average bet is calculated as well. It is the total amount bet (per 100 hands) divided by the number of hands actually played (since we don't play hands less than TC -1). Your total amount bet is Column D * Column C. The number of hands you play is the summation of your "Frequency per 100 hands" column since you're ignoring anything > TC +8 and < TC -1. This comes out to be 84.55 hands per 100 on my sheet I believe (or at least the one I'm looking at now =p).

I'm using the spread (from TC -1 to 8...): 10, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 100, 100, 100. The average bet is: $21.27. For example and simplistic sakes I'm going to use an average bet of $100 for my examples below, but note this is no different than your $20 average bet (except x5 =p).

So now I have my average bet. In order to calculate your standard deviations you need your advantage, and the number of events. In blackjack, we take our advantage to be about an average of 1%. Some may have more, some slightly less, but this is a good safe bet (and remember this is the 1% advantage you're playing for in the long run). So now to find your standard deviations you simply need to do some easy math:

Average Bet: $100
Avg Advantage: 1% (.01)
Original Standard Deviation in Blackjack for 1 hand: 1.1*AvgBet (the 1.1 is a calculated number per the game of blackjack done previously by much better math people than I).

The standard deviation past 1 hand can easily be calculated by the following... SD = OriginalSD*Sqrt(NumHands), where OriginalSD = 110 from above.

Hands	Expected Value	Standard Deviation (SD)
1	$1	+- $110
100	$100	+- $1100
10,000	$10,000	+- $11,000
1,000,000	$1,000,000	+- $110,000

So let's take a look at a couple things. One, before I get to RoR, let's look at another example of WHY COUNTING WORKS. If you notice above, for 1 hand, with a $100 bet, and a 1% advantage, you'd expect to make $1 (every time you made this bet over and over on AVERAGE in the long run). Now the Standard Deviation of this hand is +- $110, because on any given hand you could lose (-$100), win (+100) or win/lose more pending doubles/splits/blackjacks/etc.

The rest are just multiplications of each other, BUT the interesting thing is as you reach a million hands. A professional actually playing 40 hours per week (not counting scouting, traveling, etc) plays a total of 2080 hours per year. If this pro finds good conditions and is getting 100 hands per hour, then they are playing 208,000 hands per year. This should tell you that it would even take a pro 5 years to reach a million hands... but by the time that they do they should expect to make $1,000,000 (based off the averages above). However, at this point, you'll notice the SD is +- $110,000. So what does this mean? You've effectively erased luck from the game. You might make $890,000, or you might make $1,110,000... but you're making a large sum of money either way! The variance has been effectively minimized and you are left with your expected value of about 1% resulting in $1 per hand you play.

Now for the RoR
Your RoR is based off the number of hands you plan to play. In the example above, using a $100 average bet, you could make $1,000,000 +- $110,000 with a $110,000 bankroll (as this is the most variance you could ever expect to lose in getting to your 1,000,000 hands).

So what does this mean for you? Well, you're 1/5 of the above average bet, and 1/5 of the results... If you divide everything by 5 above, then you could expect your average bet to be $20, $.20 to be your average gain per hand, and +-$20.20 to be your SD. Multiplying out then in 5 years, playing 1,000,000 hands you could expect to make $200,000 +-$22,000. Not too shabby, but you can clearly see why you'd want to re-evaluate this if you were to go "pro" =). From this though you can see that you'd need a bankroll of $22,000 to withstand the possible swings you'd be taking in getting to that point.

Another note, this is for one standard deviation, which is with only ~68% confidence. To get a full SD of 99.5% confidence then you have to do a lot trickier math than I'm willing to write out on here =P... but overall that should be fairly close and if anything I would just expect your bankroll requirement to go up from like $22,000 to something close to $30,000ish (educated guess).

There's a lot of RoR calculators where you plug in your average bet, your gain per hand, and your bankroll and it tells you what % chance you have of going bust (as opposed to doubling your bankroll). Here's the Wizards RoR calculator. Others can be found at qfit, or other places simply by Googling "Risk of Ruin calculator."

One last note: Any level of serious/profession play should be played with <1% RoR. If you're part time or just a fun hobby, I would still suggest keeping it as low as you possibly can, but understandably you might not 'need' to keep it under 1%.

Romes great guide. this has cleared up a lot of fogginess for me. Especially all the lingo and acronyms everyone uses on here yet tends to forget that beginners have no idea what theyre talking about.

Quote: jayjasonjay

Romes great guide. this has cleared up a lot of fogginess for me. Especially all the lingo and acronyms everyone uses on here yet tends to forget that beginners have no idea what theyre talking about.

Thanks for the feedback jay. I'm exceedingly glad to hear your comments and know that this thread helped on a lot of levels from answering questions down to lingo/acronyms/etc. =)

I am able to manipulate and modify spreadsheets to meet my needs in business. Unfortunately, I do not know where and how to start with creating one which would mimic your recommendations.

Would you be willing to share your spreadsheet? It would really help me in determining my optimal bet spreads. RoR I can get from CVCX.

Thank you for your consideration of my request. Here's hoping you are willing to do so.

I was confused too. i pulled out the true count frequencies from ProBJ (S.W) and then just plugged in the numbers with the math he has shown in his spreadsheet. My spreadsheet is on hard paper. No tricky Excell calculations in ink...

Quote: rmwlaw

I am able to manipulate and modify spreadsheets to meet my needs in business. Unfortunately, I do not know where and how to start with creating one which would mimic your recommendations.

Would you be willing to share your spreadsheet? It would really help me in determining my optimal bet spreads. RoR I can get from CVCX.

Thank you for your consideration of my request. Here's hoping you are willing to do so.

Here are the TC Frequencies from Googling, but you can find many more in good BJ books from Wong, Schlesinger, Snyder, Thorp, Grosgean, Griffin, etc. This is just something to get you started showing some frequencies per penetration (hopefully showing why penetration is so important):



I uploaded a few of my spreadsheets to my dummy Google Doc's account for you guys... Yes, you should have a different spreadsheet with the different frequencies for 1D, 2D, 6D, and 8D. This will save you a lot of time in the future when you happen upon a game and want to run some numbers in a matter of minutes. Do note that I edit these often so if it's a 2D game with 6D frequencies or something my apologizes. I just tried to grab a few that I thought would help:

1 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TiTBCuj4GHK0E_mRry3IGbWyqkfarimxskLL0Fxeygw/edit?usp=sharing
2 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OI8WlO3yiigX8MAs9URDYLTkPNSQfbF9cXrlB7nWiZ0/edit?usp=sharing
6 Deck (10): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-jCr5jRUiAg_s59IFTz6B2wqKyDJmyQkiSlddT7RdNc/edit?usp=sharing

Feel free to download a copy of these, but please do not edit them (though I locked the cells so you shouldn't be able to edit them anyways). Between the sheet, this thread, the articles, I think all of the columns/rows are spelled out. You can also just click any column once and see the formula used as well.

Let me know if you guys have any further questions!

Awesome posts and resources, thanks to all for contributing and sharing!

Quote: Excursion

Awesome posts and resources, thanks to all for contributing and sharing!

Glad you found it useful and welcome to the forums =).

Romes, you are the expert. also here it is a good place for your article.

Quote: tomchina123

Romes, you are the expert. also here it is a good place for your article.

What is a good place for the articles? =p

I don't get to play as much as I used to. It is a lot tougher for us to take 500 to a casino these days. However I have been practicing counting over the last few weeks and went to the casino to play yesterday and it was a total disaster. Counting is a lot tougher than it appears and I consider myself to be pretty intelligent. I used cancellations and that worked pretty well but when the count went from positive to negative and then back my brain started to hurt. I was especially struggling with dealing with negative numbers.

My brain doesn't like low cards being positive and high cards being negative. I thought about reversing the counts so that low was negative. Has anyone ever done that?

Quote: GWAE

I don't get to play as much as I used to. It is a lot tougher for us to take 500 to a casino these days. However I have been practicing counting over the last few weeks and went to the casino to play yesterday and it was a total disaster. Counting is a lot tougher than it appears and I consider myself to be pretty intelligent. I used cancellations and that worked pretty well but when the count went from positive to negative and then back my brain started to hurt. I was especially struggling with dealing with negative numbers.

My brain doesn't like low cards being positive and high cards being negative. I thought about reversing the counts so that low was negative. Has anyone ever done that?

If you start at some other number than zero (hint - try 10), and adjust everything around that fact, you don't have to deal with negative numbers very often. When you do, by all means go take a leak....;-)