Just a random question I don't know the answer to
August 31st, 2014 at 9:11:54 PM
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Which would be more advantageous to the player: The ability to see the dealer's hole card, or the ability to know the next card to come out of the deck?
August 31st, 2014 at 9:20:14 PM
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That's a good question. Do you always know the next card, or just one card? Assuming it's just one card, because you bust first before the dealer plays, it's always advantageous to know the next card as it will prevent you from busting.
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August 31st, 2014 at 9:27:42 PM
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Quote: boymimboThat's a good question. Do you always know the next card, or just one card? Assuming it's just one card, because you bust first before the dealer plays, it's always advantageous to know the next card as it will prevent you from busting.
That and you would DD frequently and almost always win them
August 31st, 2014 at 9:30:29 PM
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Quote: boymimboThat's a good question. Do you always know the next card, or just one card? Assuming it's just one card, because you bust first before the dealer plays, it's always advantageous to know the next card as it will prevent you from busting.
hmm, I guess I'd be interested in both answers!
August 31st, 2014 at 9:47:34 PM
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Definitely the hole card since strategy is based on partial information.
I am a robot.
August 31st, 2014 at 9:54:05 PM
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Quote: malgoriumWhich would be more advantageous to the player: The ability to see the dealer's hole card, or the ability to know the next card to come out of the deck?
This comes up a lot. Hole card is worth about 10%. Next card is worth a lot more, if you can always see the next card. Even if you can't see it for betting decisions, it is worth a lot because you will never bust. Also, all your 3-card 20s and 21s are doubled, which is worth a lot. And, if you are playing alone (or at 3rd base) you can make the dealer bust a lot more often. If you can see it for betting decisions as well you can bet huge when you have a 10 or A coming.
August 31st, 2014 at 9:54:40 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleDefinitely the hole card since strategy is based on partial information.
That is not remotely close to being correct.
August 31st, 2014 at 10:03:26 PM
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It's definitely remote. Doubling 20 the table would be closed faster than doubling against a 10 showing.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat is not remotely close to being correct.
I am a robot.
August 31st, 2014 at 10:10:24 PM
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The people in physics always love saying turns out there is a limit.
I am a robot.
August 31st, 2014 at 11:40:40 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleIt's definitely remote. Doubling 20 the table would be closed faster than doubling against a 10 showing.
And you think that hitting that hard 18 doesn't look strange? Both require some cover. The next card is just worth so much more, it's not funny. Even if you eschew the odd-looking doubles, just never busting and steering bust cards to the dealer is massive.
September 1st, 2014 at 4:13:43 AM
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Oh wow, could you imagine, playing a game with first, next, and hole card info? Sheesh!
But I'd think, you need a lot more cover if you have next-card info. I think you'd get a Lotta heat real fast.
Something else, lots of times you don't be getting perfect hole or next card reads. Or sometimes you can only distinguish certain groups (ie: ten or no ten).
With partial information and proper cover, a real-life scenario, I'd think HC info would be worth more than next card.
Or maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But that's my opinion if it's worth anything.
But I'd think, you need a lot more cover if you have next-card info. I think you'd get a Lotta heat real fast.
Something else, lots of times you don't be getting perfect hole or next card reads. Or sometimes you can only distinguish certain groups (ie: ten or no ten).
With partial information and proper cover, a real-life scenario, I'd think HC info would be worth more than next card.
Or maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But that's my opinion if it's worth anything.
September 1st, 2014 at 4:16:38 AM
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Ahigh, I'm puzzled, why would they (threaten) to kick you out and not feed you? Have you done something to annoy them and make you not worth it for them?
Wtf how did I get in this thread?
Wtf how did I get in this thread?
September 1st, 2014 at 4:41:54 AM
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Next card info i think would be better.Quote: RSOh wow, could you imagine, playing a game with first, next, and hole card info? Sheesh!
But I'd think, you need a lot more cover if you have next-card info. I think you'd get a Lotta heat real fast.
Something else, lots of times you don't be getting perfect hole or next card reads. Or sometimes you can only distinguish certain groups (ie: ten or no ten).
With partial information and proper cover, a real-life scenario, I'd think HC info would be worth more than next card.
Or maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But that's my opinion if it's worth anything.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 1st, 2014 at 5:48:09 AM
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Strategy is also based upon a random shuffle.Quote: onenickelmiracleDefinitely the hole card since strategy is based on partial information.
Also, there is already a game where both of the dealer's cards are exposed, Double Exposure (albeit with rule changes such as pushes lose).
That said, I gotta think that knowing the next card in the shoe is more valuable.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 1st, 2014 at 8:08:30 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 1st, 2014 at 1:40:03 PM
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For anyone who thinks that hole card is more valuable, just try dealing yourself a few hands, and peeking at the next card before each decision. Remember to double and split appropriately. Keep track with chips, if necessary.
September 1st, 2014 at 2:12:24 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFor anyone who thinks that hole card is more valuable, just try dealing yourself a few hands, and peeking at the next card before each decision. Remember to double and split appropriately. Keep track with chips, if necessary.
Haha, holy crap - I played off about 1 deck from 2-decks and I literally did not lose a single hand. Had a few ties, but no losses.
UPDATE: Tried another 1 deck, only lost 2 hands. I'm sold.
September 1st, 2014 at 6:00:43 PM
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Next card out of the shoe and it's not even close. You would have far more double down opportunites (doubling on a 14 against a 10 while knowing a 7 is coming, for example) and almost all of them would be successful. And you would never bust. Tremendous advantage. Seeing the hole card would help a lot too, but not nearly as much.
September 2nd, 2014 at 7:56:20 AM
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I would prefer next card vs hole card, but you can still get screwed by dealer 11's and passing them the 10 and so on. I'd say it helps, but it's only a partial advantage, as you have very little info on what the dealer's whole card is.. so in theory you could win a lot, but you also will be risking more with doubles and splits, so I'd say the advantage is higher.. but the RoR is also higher
September 2nd, 2014 at 10:48:06 AM
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Quote: ajemeisterI would prefer next card vs hole card, but you can still get screwed by dealer 11's and passing them the 10 and so on. I'd say it helps, but it's only a partial advantage, as you have very little info on what the dealer's whole card is.. so in theory you could win a lot, but you also will be risking more with doubles and splits, so I'd say the advantage is higher.. but the RoR is also higher
Your RoR is practically 0 unless you are betting massive chunks of your bankroll every hand. I don't think that you understand exactly how big your edge is.
Just deal yourself a few hands and try it. It will quickly become clear that you can't possibly lose. Your edge is that large.
September 2nd, 2014 at 11:52:18 AM
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I'm talking about RoR of session bankroll, but you assume that just by you not busting counts as a win.
I also say that there is more of a RoR since you will be doubling or splitting more than you normally would and on non-traditional hands (double on 12-16). Splitting sounds like it is more of a bad move compared to double, as you'd only be able to guarantee one "good" hand.
There are still a lot of scenarios where you will still lose. I agree that the advantage is a lot better than not knowing, but there are scenarios where you get backed into a lose/lose situation (12 vs dealer K with T as next draw).
I guess it depends on strategy of when to double or split, and what is considered a "good" hand. I understand doubling to get 21, but would I then only hit to get a 20? I'm trying to flesh out a new "basic strategy" in my head
I also say that there is more of a RoR since you will be doubling or splitting more than you normally would and on non-traditional hands (double on 12-16). Splitting sounds like it is more of a bad move compared to double, as you'd only be able to guarantee one "good" hand.
There are still a lot of scenarios where you will still lose. I agree that the advantage is a lot better than not knowing, but there are scenarios where you get backed into a lose/lose situation (12 vs dealer K with T as next draw).
I guess it depends on strategy of when to double or split, and what is considered a "good" hand. I understand doubling to get 21, but would I then only hit to get a 20? I'm trying to flesh out a new "basic strategy" in my head
September 2nd, 2014 at 11:59:34 AM
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maybe I'm over thinking this.. I'm going to play it out with a deck or two when I get home from work
September 2nd, 2014 at 12:22:28 PM
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Quote: ajemeistermaybe I'm over thinking this.. I'm going to play it out with a deck or two when I get home from work
Yeah, just try it. You will see what I mean.
Playing with no cover, you would quickly be betting table max and clearing out tray after tray. Your edge is absolutely massive. With hole-carding it's a large edge but you can still realistically lose.
You are wrong about RoR. It actually goes way down. Never busting reduces variance significantly (and of course a massive edge lowers RoR too) A big part of your edge also comes from the fact that the dealer is drawing a lot of big cards (since you are passing on cards that would bust you, the dealer is more likely to get "passed" a big card.
The combination of you never busting and the dealer busting more often gives you a huge edge and lower variance.
September 2nd, 2014 at 12:32:48 PM
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Just to be sure, we're talking about next-card information being available every single hand? And we're in an alternate universe where surveillance and the pit boss aren't going to notice or care?
I understand we're just fantasizing here, but the only way you could have next-card information every hand would be if the cards were marked, in which case you'd have hole-card information as well. What sort of edge would you have with both? Gotta be getting darn close to 100%.
I understand we're just fantasizing here, but the only way you could have next-card information every hand would be if the cards were marked, in which case you'd have hole-card information as well. What sort of edge would you have with both? Gotta be getting darn close to 100%.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland.
And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with.
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September 2nd, 2014 at 4:47:35 PM
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Quote:I also say that there is more of a RoR since you will be doubling or splitting more than you normally would and on non-traditional hands (double on 12-16).
Next card information would not only allow you to take advantage of uncommon doubles (doubling on 16 vs. 10 knowing a 5 is coming) but you'd also avoid bad doubles. If you had an 11 vs. an 8, you'd normally double that. But if you knew that the next card is a 2, would you still double? I wouldn't. You would absolutely beat the casino to a pulp if you always knew the card out of the shoe.
September 3rd, 2014 at 1:38:14 PM
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I cannot even imagine how big the advantage would be if you had 100% next card info.
A long time I played in this small lousy casino (not in US and not a hole card game) which was in obvious financial difficulties and did not even change the decks of cards regurarly to save money.
The decks of cards were old with dirt, smudges etc.
After playing a while I started noticing specific cards with specific types of smudges in them and memorising them especially 10, and A with characteristic smudges and even other ranks.
There were like around 10-15 cards with very characteristic smudges that I knew 100% and another say 20-30 cards were I was like 50% what the card was (especially A,10). I just killed the game.
My only risk was that the casino would not have the money to pay me.
A long time I played in this small lousy casino (not in US and not a hole card game) which was in obvious financial difficulties and did not even change the decks of cards regurarly to save money.
The decks of cards were old with dirt, smudges etc.
After playing a while I started noticing specific cards with specific types of smudges in them and memorising them especially 10, and A with characteristic smudges and even other ranks.
There were like around 10-15 cards with very characteristic smudges that I knew 100% and another say 20-30 cards were I was like 50% what the card was (especially A,10). I just killed the game.
My only risk was that the casino would not have the money to pay me.
September 3rd, 2014 at 1:41:12 PM
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I'd suggest having some curious lucky charm as cover and flat betting to maximize longevity.
A cover story ("I always see idiots playing dumb and getting lucky, I'm going to try it for once!") may help, too.
With perfect next card information, you'll make a killing (even at table minimum), until they close the table. With 20% next card information, you'll still do pretty darn well.
The tricky part will be a few intentionally stupid plays, just to look like you are getting lucky. ("I doubled my 14 last time and made it... let's try again!" (pull a 9, act sad that you busted))
A cover story ("I always see idiots playing dumb and getting lucky, I'm going to try it for once!") may help, too.
With perfect next card information, you'll make a killing (even at table minimum), until they close the table. With 20% next card information, you'll still do pretty darn well.
The tricky part will be a few intentionally stupid plays, just to look like you are getting lucky. ("I doubled my 14 last time and made it... let's try again!" (pull a 9, act sad that you busted))
May the cards fall in your favor.
