My blackjack story today + math problem

Today while I was on break for playing poker I decided to play some blackjack. I have just learned card counting 2 months ago so I consider myself a noob to blackjack. I play perfect basic strategy and attempt to count hi-lo with a few indices. I can count if I'm focused, but not if I'm distracted, and not if I'm playing (because I have to distract myself by thinking how to act like I'm dumb)

The rules for the game is 6 deck, H17, no surrender, DAS, double any, 85%(!) penetration

Anyway, long story short, I wonged in at +8 RC / ~5 decks. Played a few hands at $10 and lost. By the time it was 4 decks the RC was +14. I increased my bets gradually as the RC went up and topped at +16 RC/ 3 decks for $50/bet. Note after the 5 deck mark my count was no longer accurate (but should be close) and at the 3 deck mark I was wayyyy to busy trying to pretend to be stupid and I just stopped counting all together. When I was offered even money I had to ask "What's this," and then go "ohh that sound like a good deal" and dealer showing a 10 afterwards. I totally made it look like I'm dumb enough to think the even money was a good bet when in fact was because the TC was around +6... At the end, I estimated the TC was like +8.5 when the shoe ended. Despite all that, I still lost ~$200.

I'm a little bitter about my loss but I'm just glad I get to be in a situation with +8.5 TC, and I feel like eventually luck will be on my side if I keep getting myself into situations with +8.5 TC.

Now, as I was starting to think, "What if I messed up? What if instead of my count being roughly ok after the 5 deck mark, it was completely wrong because I couldn't concentrate to count? I want to calculate my "worst case EV" for today's situation"

Now I know some of you might be saying "Why don't you just learn how to count better." I'll be getting to that in the future. For now I'm still a noob and this math problem intrigues me.


So the problem is:

At what TC would it be break even (0EV, don't count comps), if you wong in at that TC and stop counting for the rest of the shoe?


My intuition is that this is around +1.5-2. I know the break even TC for EV is +1.0, but if you stop counting for the rest of the shoe the TC will statistically tend towards 0.


Bonus story: Today I saw a man went all in with his last $40 chips at the beginning of a shoe after getting whopped on the previous shoe. He gets AA. could not afford to split so he hits it twice, got 2 10s and busted...

Everyone was commenting how he woulda had 2 21s if he woulda not bet his entire bankroll so he could split.

Quote: Neutrino

Anyway, long story short, I wonged in at +8 RC / ~5 decks. Played a few hands at $10 and lost. By the time it was 4 decks the RC was +14. I increased my bets gradually as the RC went up and topped at +16 RC/ 3 decks for $50/bet. Note after the 5 deck mark my count was no longer accurate (but should be close) and at the 3 deck mark I was wayyyy to busy trying to pretend to be stupid and I just stopped counting all together. When I was offered even money I had to ask "What's this," and then go "ohh that sound like a good deal" and dealer showing a 10 afterwards. I totally made it look like I'm dumb enough to think the even money was a good bet when in fact was because the TC was around +6... At the end, I estimated the TC was like +8.5 when the shoe ended. Despite all that, I still lost ~$200.

Yeah. If the shoe ends when the count is high you often lose a ton. That's because all the good cards are behind the cut card and don't get dealt. The count rising doesn't help you if the big cards never come. You are not thinking about the game correctly.

Quote:

So the problem is:


At what TC would it be break even (0EV, don't count comps), if you wong in at that TC and stop counting for the rest of the shoe?

Don't do this. You are focusing on EV and ignoring variance. You are going to go broke. If you can't count, then learn to count. Don't guess.

Quote:

My intuition is that this is around +1.5-2. I know the break even TC for EV is +1.0,

Not in the game you are playing. Every TC is worth about 0.5%. Your 6-deck H17 game has an edge in the 0.65% range. So 0EV comes at around +1.3 TC. You need to play an S17 game if you want a <0.5% HE game.

Quote:

but if you stop counting for the rest of the shoe the TC will statistically tend towards 0.

No that's wrong. TC does not tend to move. RC tends to revert to 0; TC does not.

Stopping counting is a bad idea. You are right when it comes to EV, but your variance shoots up.

So, the answer to your question is, whenever the EV for the next hand is 0, the EV for the whole shoe is 0. This should be obvious; the cards can come out in any order. The high cards are no more likely to come out in the next hand than in the following hand, or the one after. The fact that the hands are not independent is irrelevent, EV is additive even for dependent and/or correlated random variables.

Trying to take advantage of this fact is not recommended, for the reasons mentioned above.

Quote:

Bonus story: Today I saw a man went all in with his last $40 chips at the beginning of a shoe after getting whopped on the previous shoe. He gets AA. could not afford to split so he hits it twice, got 2 10s and busted...

Any reason you didn't offer to buy one of the aces? This would be higher EV than any of the other stuff you were doing.

I spotted a counter, he was 10 yards away from and I could easily catch him. Of course, I was not sure if I should do it myself, but the reward said "10 grand" to catch one. We looked each other in eyes, he felt danger and began to run and I followed. A minute later I pinned him to the floor and security handcuffed him. He was my 5th. I hunt counters, they made me rich.

Quote: Dicenor33

I spotted a counter, he was 10 yards away from and I could easily catch him. Of course, I was not sure if I should do it myself, but the reward said "10 grand" to catch one. We looked each other in eyes, he felt danger and began to run and I followed. A minute later I pinned him to the floor and security handcuffed him. He was my 5th. I hunt counters, they made me rich.

Was the guy wearing a Penguins hoody?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Was the guy wearing a Penguins hoody?

Hoody's are a bad idea in a casino that's the first thing security looks for.

Quote: Dicenor33

I spotted a counter, he was 10 yards away from and I could easily catch him. Of course, I was not sure if I should do it myself, but the reward said "10 grand" to catch one. We looked each other in eyes, he felt danger and began to run and I followed. A minute later I pinned him to the floor and security handcuffed him. He was my 5th. I hunt counters, they made me rich.

can't tell if trolling or...

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Any reason you didn't offer to buy one of the aces? This would be higher EV than any of the other stuff you were doing.

Wait what? What do you mean "buy one of the aces?" (I'm a noob but I'm guessing you mean I own his hand for a certain $$?)

Quote: AxelWolf

Hoody's are a bad idea in a casino that's the first thing security looks for.

Is this a joke?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Was the guy wearing a Penguins hoody?

Noooooo!!! Lemieuxxxxxxxxxxx!!!!!!!

Quote: Neutrino

Wait what? What do you mean "buy one of the aces?" (I'm a noob but I'm guessing you mean I own his hand for a certain $$?)

You should offer the guy $40 to do the splitting. He gets the first hand and you get the 2nd. This is very standard when someone does not have enough to split. In this case, it's a good deal for both of you.

Quote: JoePloppy

Noooooo!!! Lemieuxxxxxxxxxxx!!!!!!!

He was NOT wearing a Penguins hoody. I assume.

Quote: Dicenor33

I spotted a counter, he was 10 yards away from and I could easily catch him. Of course, I was not sure if I should do it myself, but the reward said "10 grand" to catch one. We looked each other in eyes, he felt danger and began to run and I followed. A minute later I pinned him to the floor and security handcuffed him. He was my 5th. I hunt counters, they made me rich.

Post of the month!

You say you got distracted because you were trying to act stupid. There is no need for an act if your wonging in and max betting at $50. You shouldn't even think about an act until after $100, and really anything but high stakes where it might not be possible you're just better off trying to be as forgettable as possible than put on an act.

Quote: mcallister3200

You say you got distracted because you were trying to act stupid. There is no need for an act if your wonging in and max betting at $50. You shouldn't even think about an act until after $100, and really anything but high stakes where it might not be possible you're just better off trying to be as forgettable as possible than put on an act.

Yeah, I've been wanting to ask this for a while. Do casinos only bar people they view as a threat? I usually just wong in at $10 but the count was REALLY high that day, I would imagine someone wonging in at $10 wouldn't be a economical threat to them. So do they only bar real threats? or do they indiscriminately bar all counters, low rollers and high rollers equally?

It's a start which is better than nothing. I'm a natural counter with OCD tendencies but I haven't played in ages. Being dumb just takes asking dumb questions, no offense intended. Just ask dumb questions you're prepared to ask and I'd imagine it's a good start.

If you are wonging in at $10, they should be paying you as a prop player.

Quote: JoePloppy

Is this a joke?

No, why? Unless I missed something.

All casinos are different when it comes to heat, who they back off, etc. Some stores you'll get BO'd for wonging in with $10 bets, while other stores won't view your action worthwhile and don't care what you do.

You really don't need an act when betting such little amounts, unless of course, if they sweat the money. But even then, you're much better off having precise counting than having mediocre counting with a good act. If you think you need an act, first you need to be 110% in your BJ counting skills.


As far as the EV, variance, etc. for what you played, I can't help you out. But I do know that the TC tends to stay the same (does not tend to 0), unless you know exactly where the small/high cards are in the shoe (which you don't know...you only know the ratio of total remaining cards). To explain this, imagine a 6 deck game, 1 decks have been dealt, 5 remaining, where the RC is +5 and the TC is exactly +1. This means there is 1 extra high card per remaining deck. After the next entire deck is dealt (52 cards), assuming there is 1 extra high card in there (based on a normal distribution), the RC will be +4, with 4 decks remaining. After the next entire 1 deck is dealt, the RC will be 3 (tend to 3) and TC will be +1. Then RC of +2 with 2 decks remaining, then RC of +1 with 1 deck remaining. TC is the fraction RC/Decks_Remaining. The numerator, RC, is decreasing, while the denominator (decks remaining) is also decreasing at the same rate (on average).

Quote: Buzzard

If you are wonging in at $10, they should be paying you as a prop player.

What's a prop player?

deleted

Quote: RS

All casinos are different when it comes to heat, who they back off, etc. Some stores you'll get BO'd for wonging in with $10 bets, while other stores won't view your action worthwhile and don't care what you do.

You really don't need an act when betting such little amounts, unless of course, if they sweat the money. But even then, you're much better off having precise counting than having mediocre counting with a good act. If you think you need an act, first you need to be 110% in your BJ counting skills.


As far as the EV, variance, etc. for what you played, I can't help you out. But I do know that the TC tends to stay the same (does not tend to 0), unless you know exactly where the small/high cards are in the shoe (which you don't know...you only know the ratio of total remaining cards). To explain this, imagine a 6 deck game, 1 decks have been dealt, 5 remaining, where the RC is +5 and the TC is exactly +1. This means there is 1 extra high card per remaining deck. After the next entire deck is dealt (52 cards), assuming there is 1 extra high card in there (based on a normal distribution), the RC will be +4, with 4 decks remaining. After the next entire 1 deck is dealt, the RC will be 3 (tend to 3) and TC will be +1. Then RC of +2 with 2 decks remaining, then RC of +1 with 1 deck remaining. TC is the fraction RC/Decks_Remaining. The numerator, RC, is decreasing, while the denominator (decks remaining) is also decreasing at the same rate (on average).

Very good explanation, thank you

I've read that wizard said it's "natural" to increase bet after win and decrease bet after loss. However, due to the TC going up while I was losing, I increased my bet from $10 to eventually $50. since it wasn't "natural" to increase bet after losses, I had to act like I was a degenerate chasing my losses.

A cardroom employee who is paid a predetermined amount to play in shorthanded games but whose bankroll is not supplied by the house; a house player who risks one's own money and is compensated based on amount of play or time played; prop; prop player.

Quote: Neutrino

I've read that wizard said it's "natural" to increase bet after win and decrease bet after loss. However, due to the TC going up while I was losing, I increased my bet from $10 to eventually $50. since it wasn't "natural" to increase bet after losses, I had to act like I was a degenerate chasing my losses.

Does the casino that you are playing at care about $50 bets? At those levels, just drop the act and play.

Quote: Buzzard

A cardroom employee who is paid a predetermined amount to play in shorthanded games but whose bankroll is not supplied by the house; a house player who risks one's own money and is compensated based on amount of play or time played; prop; prop player.

Why would they want to do that? seems like it's just wasting the dealer's time

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Does the casino that you are playing at care about $50 bets? At those levels, just drop the act and play.

I have no clue and i'm not sure how to get a clue. any "tells"?

How much time are you wasting to wong in at $10 ? Whats that 1-2 % AP worth ?

about $0.15/hand, at the rate of 100 hands/h about $1.5/h

They're legally shills to keep games open. Nobody wants to play poker against themselves. Usually used for poker because the only place they're needed. I don't know of any other uses.

Quote: Neutrino

about $0.15/hand, at the rate of 100 hands/h about $1.5/h

That's playing time. Now divide that $1.50 by the hours waiting to wong in. LOL

Quote: Neutrino

about $0.15/hand, at the rate of 100 hands/h about $1.5/h

Try again.

i miscalculated, should be $15 not $1.5 lol

Quote: onenickelmiracle

They're legally shills to keep games open. Nobody wants to play poker against themselves. Usually used for poker because the only place they're needed. I don't know of any other uses.

play poker AND get paid for cleaning out fishes, where do i sign up?

Quote: Neutrino

play poker AND get paid for cleaning out fishes, where do i sign up?

It's rare nowadays in Vegas, dealers often help fill games. Its not as great as you think. I know guys who have done this for years in the past. I was offered a job doing this in a place I was playing everyday anyways. I declined because you cant just sit and play all day. You have to give up your seat when the table starts to get full(during real good games that would suck). Most of the time you have to play short handed(I would have liked that aspect). If guys are playing short handed they probably are not so fishy, so don't think it would be a cake walk. Usually players dislike Prop players. new guys always call them shills. They get far less action. If you are asked, you must revile that you are a prop player. The place I played at, if any player wanted to switch seats with the prop player, he/she was allowed to do so, after 10 hands of paying his blinds.

There are a few places online that do pay prop players. But you get moved from table to table often and you have to afford some medium limits. Its probably a good deal.