Vegas Vacation with AOS
Quote: teliotOccam's razor says it didn't. There are simply too many explanations that are far more reasonable to explain your claim than your claim actually being true.
If 1 billion people flip a coin 30 times, one of them (on average) will flip 30 heads. But, if a guy comes up to me and says he is the guy who flipped 30 heads, I'm checking his coin, because you better believe that it's two-headed! Claims of the miraculous must be meted out delicately and conservatively. Your "nine-card 21" pretty much exhausted your quota.
I like what Arnold Snyder said about flipping a coin. If someone tells you that they flipped a coin 10 times and it came up heads 7 times it is quite believable. But if someone tells you they flipped a coin 10,000 times and it came up heads 7,000 times then either the flipper or the coin is crooked.
Perhaps the lads at Patrick's board would be more receptive: "Math, we don't need no stinkin' math."
Quote: odiousgambitmathematical impossibilities mathematical improbabilities shall we say
did you see how the Wizard handled this at his "ask the W"? He doesn't say whether it's believable or not, just lays out the facts.
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/286/
No, that's just the 9-card 21. Losing 30 hands in a row is orders of magnitude less likely.
I have no idea whether any of this happened or not, but when someone reports an extremely unlikely event, it's more likely that they are mistaken than that they are correct. That's especially true for observations which are easy to get confused about. Do you stand there and count the number of cards that the dealer is pulling? Or just glance at it at the end? Because it would be easy to confuse a row of 8 cards with a row of 9 cards.
Similarly, do you sit there and count the number of consecutive hands that you lose? How do you know it was 30 hands? 30 hands might be half an hour of play. If you come up to me after I have been playing for half an hour and ask me exactly how many hands I've played, I will not know. I suspect that most people will not know, because most people do not count the number of hands that they've played, and, even if they did, a lot of people would screw it up before they reached 30, especially if they are also trying to count something else (like, for example, cards) at the same time.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: odiousgambitmathematical impossibilities mathematical improbabilities shall we say
did you see how the Wizard handled this at his "ask the W"? He doesn't say whether it's believable or not, just lays out the facts.
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/286/
No, that's just the 9-card 21. Losing 30 hands in a row is orders of magnitude less likely.
I have no idea whether any of this happened or not, but when someone reports an extremely unlikely event, it's more likely that they are mistaken than that they are correct. That's especially true for observations which are easy to get confused about. Do you stand there and count the number of cards that the dealer is pulling? Or just glance at it at the end? Because it would be easy to confuse a row of 8 cards with a row of 9 cards.
Similarly, do you sit there and count the number of consecutive hands that you lose? How do you know it was 30 hands? 30 hands might be half an hour of play. If you come up to me after I have been playing for half an hour and ask me exactly how many hands I've played, I will not know. I suspect that most people will not know, because most people do not count the number of hands that they've played, and, even if they did, a lot of people would screw it up before they reached 30, especially if they are also trying to count something else (like, for example, cards) at the same time.
I reported this 30 hands thing a looooong time ago - it was not this past trip
Quote: GWAEAce you should get me 2 tickets to Barenaked Ladies at the Revel
ETA: And a suite
ETAA: And some free play
ETAAA: And some free food
ETAAAA: Ah crap I am to poor to even get there, can you arrange transportation?
Sure, where shall I pick you up :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe part that I don't understand is, how do you know that it was 30 hands in a row? Are you sitting there counting cards with a side count of consecutive losses? This is a serious question. There is no way that you could just look back and know that it was 30 unless you were keeping count the whole time. Is it just because you were flat-betting and you know how much you lost?
Well, I posted that almost immediately after it happened to me, that is how I recalled it. I would take notes on my iPhone after each session then copy paste them into the thread.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI guess my point is, even if that had just happened to me, I would not know how many hands it was. I would know that it was a bunch of hands, for sure, but there is no way that I would know from memory that I had played exactly 30 hands (or even 10) hands. It's just too many. Once I've played more than 4 or 5, I won't be able to recall each one, so I won't be able to go back and count them.
Well, I decided at the first table that if the losing continued up to 10 hands I would leave (and made that same decision at each table)
As for your 30 losses in a row I wasn't there. I don't think you are a liar, even if you are an attorney. I think you believe in your heart this happened. (I do hope that people don't think moving tables really affects this that much)Quote: aceofspadesHere is the original thread about the 30 hands:
Occam's Razor be damned!
I still think its possible someone slipped you some Ruffies cus they thought you were sexy and they wanted to take advantage of you later, not sure how that stuff affects your memory but it cant help . Little did they know, no Ruffies needed ;)
As much as you want us to believe in you and that this did happen 100%. You should also be open to the fact you could have made a mistake or something.
the following is insane and I think this is a clear case of someone purposely embellishing for attention or just to have something to say: CrapsForever said: Happened to me last year when I lost 20+ consecutive hands playing Blackjack FOUR times in one week. <<<ABSOLUTELY POPPYCOCK. Why do I care? I think this stuff makes all gamblers seem like total liars, BS artists and untrustworthy. I don't want to lend any merit to the System players and BS gamblers.
Question to you Ace: (I think you will say yes but you would have to now) If you had a BJ team or gambling partner and he lost an extraordinary amount of money one day while you were on vacation. His explanation was, I lost 30 hands in a row on BJ. What do you say, would you believe him?
Quote: AxelWolfAs for your 30 losses in a row I wasn't there. I don't think you are a liar, even if you are an attorney. I think you believe in your heart this happened. (I do hope that people don't think moving tables really affects this that much)Quote: aceofspadesHere is the original thread about the 30 hands:
Occam's Razor be damned!
I still think its possible someone slipped you some Ruffies cus they thought you were sexy and they wanted to take advantage of you later, not sure how that stuff affects your memory but it cant help . Little did they know, no Ruffies needed ;)
As much as you want us to believe in you and that this did happen 100%. You should also be open to the fact you could have made a mistake or something.
the following is insane and I think this is a clear case of someone purposely embellishing for attention or just to have something to say: CrapsForever said: Happened to me last year when I lost 20+ consecutive hands playing Blackjack FOUR times in one week. <<<ABSOLUTELY POPPYCOCK. Why do I care? I think this stuff makes all gamblers seem like total liars, BS artists and untrustworthy. I don't want to lend any merit to the System players and BS gamblers.
Question to you Ace: (I think you will say yes but you would have to now) If you had a BJ team or gambling partner and he lost an extraordinary amount of money one day while you were on vacation. His explanation was, I lost 30 hands in a row on BJ. What do you say, would you believe him?
Knowing what I know about anyone I would ever choose to go into a venture with, and with the knowledge it had happened to me--I would have no choice than to believe them (perhaps foolish perhaps not---but I like to believe anyone I would join forces with would be forthright with me as if in a court of law)
And this does not preclude my taking clients who tell their version of the truth
I cannot do more than I have done to prove I am being truthful
Quote: aceofspadesI cannot do more than I have done to prove I am being truthful
I haven't heard anyone suggest that you are not being truthful, just that you are mistaken.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI haven't heard anyone suggest that you are not being truthful, just that you are mistaken.
Then prove to me I am MISTAKEN...? See it works both ways lol
Quote: aceofspadesThen prove to me I am MISTAKEN...? See it works both ways lol
I never said that I know for sure you are mistaken. But I know which side of the billion-to-one shot I'm taking.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI never said that I know for sure you are mistaken. But I know which side of the billion-to-one shot I'm taking.
As is your right--but I would not like to go through life with such skepticism towards my peers
Quote: aceofspadesAs is your right--but I would not like to go through life with such skepticism towards my peers
I don't see what the big deal is. Everyone makes mistakes. This is just really, really, really likely to be one of those times.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't see what the big deal is. Everyone makes mistakes. This is just really, really, really likely to be one of those times.
Nope---my note taking immediately after the event avoids mistakes in recollection
If I ever lost thirty hands of Blackjack in a row (a 1 in 1,862,983,622 chance if I counted right), I would never play Blackjack again. Irrelevant for me because I'd never make it to thirty hands in a row. I'd probably lose my buy-in after about six or seven in a row, and by fifteen or so, I'd be sick of rebuying.
Quote: aceofspadesNope---my note taking immediately after the event avoids mistakes in recollection
No, it doesn't.
You can get up from a table and say "I just lost 10 hands in a row" but I'd argue that there is a very good chance that your recollection is shaky. The human brain is just not good at remembering things like that. 7 in a row, 10 in a row, 12 in a row... they all seem the same.
Quote: aceofspadesAs is your right--but I would not like to go through life with such skepticism towards my peers
Ace,
Do you understand the math involved with losing 30 hands in a row, with no pushes? I mentioned this before, but if you bought a Powerball ticket every time you played a blackjack hand, you would (on average) win the Powerball jackpot 10 times before you lost 30 hands in a row. (Assume they held the lotto drawing after every hand.)
Do you see how it is impossible for any human to win the Powerball jackpot 10 times in his lifetime? Or 100 lifetimes?
I think if you took the time to understand the probability of losing 30 blackjack hands in a row, you would be much more open to the idea that you simply made a mistake in remembering.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNo, it doesn't.
You can get up from a table and say "I just lost 10 hands in a row" but I'd argue that there is a very good chance that your recollection is shaky. The human brain is just not good at remembering things like that. 7 in a row, 10 in a row, 12 in a row... they all seem the same.
So I bought in for 3k
Did not win a hand at 3 tables while telling myself I would leave if I lost 10 in a row
Had zero left of the 3k buy-in
And I'm still mistaken?
I love that I lived it and am reporting the truth yet none of you were there and are soooo sure that a mathematical improbability could not happen outside your presence
Do you at least understand why people don't believe you?
A friend of mine told me that she one won 15 blackjack hands in a row. I didn't believe her either. Then again, I'm fairly sure that she was hammered at the time.
Quote: sodawaterAce,
Do you understand the math involved with losing 30 hands in a row, with no pushes? I mentioned this before, but if you bought a Powerball ticket every time you played a blackjack hand, you would (on average) win the Powerball jackpot 10 times before you lost 30 hands in a row. (Assume they held the lotto drawing after every hand.)
Do you see how it is impossible for any human to win the Powerball jackpot 10 times in his lifetime? Or 100 lifetimes?
I think if you took the time to understand the probability of losing 30 blackjack hands in a row, you would be much more open to the idea that you simply made a mistake in remembering.
To be completely fair, just because the odds of something happening are astronomical doesn't mean it categorically cannot happen. For example, this happened, a 2.7 billion-to-one shot, even more unlikely than Ace's epic losing streak.
Now what are the odds of a TV star being at the table while it happened. If you didn't know better you would think it was all set up for publicity.Quote: DeucekiesTo be completely fair, just because the odds of something happening are astronomical doesn't mean it categorically cannot happen. For example, this happened, a 2.7 billion-to-one shot, even more unlikely than Ace's epic losing streak.
Quote: aceofspadesSo I bought in for 3k
Did not win a hand at 3 tables while telling myself I would leave if I lost 10 in a row
Had zero left of the 3k buy-in
And I'm still mistaken?
I love that I lived it and am reporting the truth yet none of you were there and are soooo sure that a mathematical improbability could not happen outside your presence
Here is a list of things way more likely than losing 30 BJ hands in a row without a push:
* You could have bought in for less than $3k by accident
* The dealer could have shorted you by accident on your buy-in, giving you less than $3k in checks
* You could have won a hand and not remembered it.
* You could have pushed a hand and not remembered it.
* You could have bet more than 1 unit and not remembered it.
* The dealer could have taken your bet when you pushed or won a hand and neither of you recognized it.
* Someone could have swiped your chips when you weren't looking.
* Your chips could have fallen off the table in a strong gust of ocean wind through a broken window from behind the escalator.
* The Revel could have seen you coming and switched in a stacked deck for you to lose 30 hands in a row.
All of that is more likely than what you have described.
Quote: AxelWolfNow what are the odds of a TV star being at the table while it happened. If you didn't know better you would think it was all set up for publicity.Quote: DeucekiesTo be completely fair, just because the odds of something happening are astronomical doesn't mean it categorically cannot happen. For example, this happened, a 2.7 billion-to-one shot, even more unlikely than Ace's epic losing streak.
I sincerely hope all those commenting here are, like me, atheists. For if even one of you believe in the existence of God, then that is all I need to refute your non-belief in what I have reported
Quote: DeucekiesTo be completely fair, just because the odds of something happening are astronomical doesn't mean it categorically cannot happen. For example, this happened, a 2.7 billion-to-one shot, even more unlikely than Ace's epic losing streak.
Yes... in fact each time you shuffle a deck of cards, the resulting order of the cards is for all practical purposes, impossible. But something has to happen.
Ace seems prone to mis-remembering extraordinary events.
He has claimed 15 losses in a row, which is a once-in-a-lifetime event for a recreational player.
He then claimed another 15 losses in a row ON THE SAME TRIP.
He then claimed a 9-card dealer 21, which is 32 million to one against, ON THE SAME TRIP.
And then the old claim of the 30 losses in a row.
It just doesn't add up. Ace is a nice guy but he is clearly mistaken.
Quote: DeucekiesTo be completely fair, just because the odds of something happening are astronomical doesn't mean it categorically cannot happen. For example, this happened, a 2.7 billion-to-one shot, even more unlikely than Ace's epic losing streak.
This is not a 2.7 billion to 1 shot.
Quote: aceofspadesI sincerely hope all those commenting here are, like me, atheists. For if even one of you believe in the existence of God, then that is all I need to refute your non-belief in what I have reported
And with that, I just lost interest in this thread.
After 20 losing hands in a row I can only imagine a few people start to be in shock. At that point they might start getting confused and numb all over.Quote: sodawaterHere is a list of things way more likely than losing 30 BJ hands in a row without a push:
* You could have bought in for less than $3k by accident
* The dealer could have shorted you by accident on your buy-in, giving you less than $3k in checks
* You could have won a hand and not remembered it.
* You could have pushed a hand and not remembered it.
* The dealer could have taken your bet when you pushed or won a hand and neither of you recognized it.
* Someone could have swiped your chips when you weren't looking.
* Your chips could have fallen off the table in a strong gust of ocean wind through a broken window from behind the escalator.
* The Revel could have seen you coming and switched in a stacked deck for you to lose 30 hands in a row.
All of that is more likely than what you have described.
Quote: sodawaterHere is a list of things way more likely than losing 30 BJ hands in a row without a push:
* You could have bought in for less than $3k by accident
* The dealer could have shorted you by accident on your buy-in, giving you less than $3k in checks
* You could have won a hand and not remembered it.
* You could have pushed a hand and not remembered it.
* You could have bet more than 1 unit and not remembered it.
* The dealer could have taken your bet when you pushed or won a hand and neither of you recognized it.
* Someone could have swiped your chips when you weren't looking.
* Your chips could have fallen off the table in a strong gust of ocean wind through a broken window from behind the escalator.
* The Revel could have seen you coming and switched in a stacked deck for you to lose 30 hands in a row.
All of that is more likely than what you have described.
And yet, none of those things happened
What did happen is the 30 hands in a row lost
Quote: DeucekiesAnd with that, I just lost interest in this thread.
Vaya con dios!
Quote: aceofspadesVaya con dios!
I thought you were an atheist. :-)
Quote: 1BBI thought you were an atheist. :-)
I am but couldn't miss out on a good punch line
Quote: aceofspadesAnd yet, none of those things happened
What did happen is the 30 hands in a row lost
What I am hearing is that you are infallible and it is impossible for you to have made a mistake. What bullshit.
The fact that you are so closed-minded that you refuse to admit that you might be mistaken makes me even more sure that you are wrong. How can you be 100% sure that there was not a dealer error that you missed? Dealer errors are extremely common, and recreational players miss them most of the time, and you are no pro.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhat I am hearing is that you are infallible and it is impossible for you to have made a mistake. What bullshit.
The fact that you are so closed-minded that you refuse to admit that you might be mistaken makes me even more sure that you are wrong. How can you be 100% sure that there was not a dealer error that you missed? Dealer errors are extremely common, and recreational players miss them most of the time, and you are no pro.
Prove me wrong. You can't. And I can't convince you that I am right. As such, we are at an impasse.
Why is everyone so eager for me to be wrong or mistaken…?
All your mathematics and probabilities show that it has to happen sooner or later to someone…just so long as that someone is not a member of this forum.
I realize you all do not believe me or think I am mistaken, and that I am using an inferior count…blah blah blah
I've said my peace…it is what it is - believe it or not.
You don't know how many times you missed a dealer error (this is true by definition). I don't know either. So, the logical thing to do is to compare the relative probability of the two events. It is thousands of times more likely that you missed a dealer error than that you actually lost 30 hands in a row. So, any logical person will conclude that that's probably what happened. The key word here is probably. While it's possible that you lost 30 in a row, it is several thousand times more likely that you missed a dealer error.
However, you insist on ignoring the possibility of events that were thousands of times more likely to occur, due to your insistence that it's impossible for you to have made a mistake.
Note that this is just the "missed dealer error" possibility. There is also the "pushed a hand and forgot" possibility, the "dealer shorted my on the buy-in" possibility. Hell, even the "stacked deck" possibility, while INCREDIBLY unlikely, is more likely than the "lost 30 hands in a row" possibility.
You are like the person who is absolutely convinced that he saw bigfoot or the loch ness monster.
What I won't buy is that, overall, what will eventually be the story of Ace-of-Spades and his BJ is the story of atrociously bad luck. Maybe on this trip, that's all.
Quote: beachbumbabsthere's no reason NOT to believe it happened
This is the incorrect statement. There is every reason not to believe it, because there are so many other explanations which are orders of magnitude more likely.
Quote: beachbumbabsTruly, I don't get hammering AoS about this. No one but him was there, there's no reason NOT to believe it happened however improbable by the numbers, and there's no glass to the past where it can be verified either way. You've all said your piece about it; how about we move on?
This was how I felt until he busted out the "If you don't believe me, you don't get to believe in God" argument. Now I say fire away.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis is the incorrect statement. There is every reason not to believe it, because there are so many other explanations which are orders of magnitude more likely.
If you quote the full statement I made, it is not incorrect. Truncating what I said to argue your point is dishonest debate.
Quote: beachbumbabsIf you quote the full statement I made, it is not incorrect. Truncating what I said to argue your point is dishonest debate.
The whole statement doesn't add any context -- it's still incorrect.
The point is, the very fact that it is extremely improbably compared to the alternate explanations is an extremely good reason to disbelieve it, and it's what any logical person would do. Just like when someone who you know and trust tells you that they saw a flying saucer, you don't believe that we are being invaded by aliens, you believe that your friend has made an error.
