Greasyjohn
• Posts: 2178
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
April 7th, 2014 at 10:40:25 AM permalink
In the Blackjack Survey located on this site it states that the house edge for the 2D game is -.40 and I come up with -.31 If you use the starting point of the El Cortez SD game of -.19 you would calculate + .06 for RSA + .14 DAS -.32 for DD = -. 31

Am I making a mistake or omitting something in my calculations?
1BB
• Posts: 5339
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
April 7th, 2014 at 12:06:32 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

In the Blackjack Survey located on this site it states that the house edge for the 2D game is -.40 and I come up with -.31 If you use the starting point of the El Cortez SD game of -.19 you would calculate + .06 for RSA + .14 DAS -.32 for DD = -. 31

Am I making a mistake or omitting something in my calculations?

Try running it through the calculator on Wizard of Odds. I got 0.40374%.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
AxiomOfChoice
• Posts: 5761
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April 7th, 2014 at 12:27:27 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

In the Blackjack Survey located on this site it states that the house edge for the 2D game is -.40 and I come up with -.31 If you use the starting point of the El Cortez SD game of -.19 you would calculate + .06 for RSA + .14 DAS -.32 for DD = -. 31

Am I making a mistake or omitting something in my calculations?

Does the game use a cut card? The cut card effect will add to the house edge.

Also, adding up the values of the rules will give you something that is close, but not exact. The rules do interact with each other.
Greasyjohn
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April 7th, 2014 at 4:16:11 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Try running it through the calculator on Wizard of Odds. I got 0.40374%.

Right, I got that too. I didn't even know there was a calculator. I noticed that the _.40374 is the "Realistic Result" and that -.3267 is the "Optimal Result".
AxiomOfChoice
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April 7th, 2014 at 4:17:59 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

Right, I got that too. I didn't even know there was a calculator. I noticed that the _.40374 is the "Realistic Result" and that -.3267 is the "Optimal Result".

As I said, cut card effect. The effect is significant at double deck.
Greasyjohn
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April 7th, 2014 at 4:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Does the game use a cut card? The cut card effect will add to the house edge.

Also, adding up the values of the rules will give you something that is close, but not exact. The rules do interact with each other.

Yes, a cut card would have an effect on the EV. Silverton places the CC about 51 to 52% through the two decks. Of course the pen might be 20 or so cards past the cut card if the cut card comes out early in a round that would continue to be played through.
AxiomOfChoice
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April 7th, 2014 at 4:39:28 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

Yes, a cut card would have an effect on the EV. Silverton places the CC about 51 to 52% through the two decks. Of course the pen might be 20 or so cards past the cut card if the cut card comes out early in a round that would continue to be played through.

50% pen? That is crap. There are better DD games with deeper penetration.

I believe that the cut card effect is stronger (worse for the player) with shallower penetration (but this is just from logical reasoning, not from simulations, so I may have made an error). I have no idea what penetration the Wizard uses when calculating his "realistic" results.

Once we are talking about hundredths of a percent, though, you have to ask yourself how precise you really need to be. A few hundredths of a percent edge will not show up in 10s of millions of hands.
1BB
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April 7th, 2014 at 4:52:16 PM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

Yes, a cut card would have an effect on the EV. Silverton places the CC about 51 to 52% through the two decks. Of course the pen might be 20 or so cards past the cut card if the cut card comes out early in a round that would continue to be played through.

We're talking about the cut card effect, not where the cut card is placed. Go back to the house edge calculator to find a short explanation at the bottom of the page.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Greasyjohn
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April 7th, 2014 at 8:39:34 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

50% pen? That is crap. There are better DD games with deeper penetration.

I believe that the cut card effect is stronger (worse for the player) with shallower penetration (but this is just from logical reasoning, not from simulations, so I may have made an error). I have no idea what penetration the Wizard uses when calculating his "realistic" results.

Once we are talking about hundredths of a percent, though, you have to ask yourself how precise you really need to be. A few hundredths of a percent edge will not show up in 10s of millions of hands.

I know it's not good. And I know you can't make any money at this game. But \$50 added incentive and easy room comps and discretionary comps have to be added into the equation. I know where to find 80 to 85% pen;)
Greasyjohn
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April 7th, 2014 at 9:00:09 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

We're talking about the cut card effect, not where the cut card is placed. Go back to the house edge calculator to find a short explanation at the bottom of the page.

I'm not sure I understand. I'm a counter, so I would assume that my EV is better than the Optimal Result which uses basic strategy. The deeper the deal the greater my advantage, on average.
1BB
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April 8th, 2014 at 4:44:07 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

I'm not sure I understand. I'm a counter, so I would assume that my EV is better than the Optimal Result which uses basic strategy. The deeper the deal the greater my advantage, on average.

The term cut card effect refers to whether the cards are shuffled after every hand or are dealt down to a cut card. Penetration is where the cut card is placed. That is the effect of the cut card as distinguished from the cut card effect. The optimal results are based on shuffling after every hand. These results also assume perfect basic strategy. No dealer is going to shuffle after every hand so I suspect that this research was done for CSMs.

The basic strategy player, we're not talking about counters, has an advantage when every hand is the first hand of a fresh shoe. This is an advantage over a cut card, not an advantage over the house. The difference is closest with eight decks and widens when less decks are in use. The realistic and optimal numbers have nothing to do with the advantage of a card counter except as one of many tools to evaluate a game. The advantage of the optimal result is negated by the 20% or more hands per hour dealt from CSMs.

Whichever house edge the perfect basic strategy player plays against is the amount he will lose over time. People will cringe when they read this but if anyone is a recreational player and wants to play a CSM go ahead and do so. All you have to do is find a way to play less hands per hour and that is very easily accomplished.

Now that I've committed blasphemy in the eyes of my fellow counters, I'll say that CSMs are here to stay and nothing on a message board is going to affect that. Boycott them if you like but that ship has sailed.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
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April 8th, 2014 at 5:02:35 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxiomOfChoice
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April 8th, 2014 at 10:02:38 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

The term cut card effect refers to whether the cards are shuffled after every hand or are dealt down to a cut card. Penetration is where the cut card is placed. That is the effect of the cut card as distinguished from the cut card effect. The optimal results are based on shuffling after every hand. These results also assume perfect basic strategy. No dealer is going to shuffle after every hand so I suspect that this research was done for CSMs.

It does not have to be shuffled after every hand. Any game where a fixed number of rounds are dealt between shuffles (ie, shuffle point based on number of hands rather than depth of penetration) does not suffer from the cut card effect.

So, for example, a single-deck game where you get 4 rounds between shuffles has the same house edge (to the basic strategy player) as a single-deck game where the dealer shuffles after every round, but if the dealer uses a cut card to determine when to shuffle, the cut card effect increases the house edge.

The reason for this is that using depth to determine when to shuffle is a form of preferential shuffle. When high cards come out, the count goes down. However, since high cards came out, fewer cards were used in the playing of the hands, so more hands are dealt before the shuffle-point is reached. On the other hand, if low cards come out, the count goes up, but many cards are used in the playing of the hand, so the shuffle-point is reached after fewer hands. As a result, you end up playing more hands with negative counts than you play with positive counts -- your positive counts get shuffled away because the cut card is reached after fewer hands.

Obviously, if the dealer is dealing a fixed number of rounds between shuffles, this is not an issue.
Greasyjohn
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April 9th, 2014 at 4:47:41 AM permalink
Deleted
Greasyjohn
• Posts: 2178
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
April 9th, 2014 at 4:57:53 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

50% pen? That is crap. There are better DD games with deeper penetration.

I believe that the cut card effect is stronger (worse for the player) with shallower penetration (but this is just from logical reasoning, not from simulations, so I may have made an error). I have no idea what penetration the Wizard uses when calculating his "realistic" results.

Once we are talking about hundredths of a percent, though, you have to ask yourself how precise you really need to be. A few hundredths of a percent edge will not show up in 10s of millions of hands.

The difference between -.40 and. -.32 equals 8 cents per \$100 wager. That's \$ 8 an hour at 100 hands being dealt per hour. That's pretty significant.
AxelWolf
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April 9th, 2014 at 6:27:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

As I said, cut card effect. The effect is significant at double deck.

I know penetration is substantial, but what if you can spread 1 to 300 or more with bad penetration all day no heat? I have asked this before on a specific number of decks and penetration( I forget now). The only thing I got was penetration is the holy grail anything less forget about it. I get that if the penetration only was 1 deck on 6 decks then bet spread may be worthless. At what point would you give up some penetration for incredible bet spread opportunities?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
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April 9th, 2014 at 11:10:44 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

The difference between -.40 and. -.32 equals 8 cents per \$100 wager. That's \$ 8 an hour at 100 hands being dealt per hour. That's pretty significant.

Take a look at this: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/rainsong/

Here, the Wizard debunked a betting system with a simulation. The game had an edge of 0.26%. When they stopped the simulation after 10 million hands, the simulation was down 0.2933%. So, after 10 million hands, the simulation was 0.0333% worse than expectation.

How many hands do you think that you will play in your lifetime? I think that you are underestimating how long it takes for your results to converge to expectation.
AxiomOfChoice
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April 9th, 2014 at 11:15:59 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I know penetration is substantial, but what if you can spread 1 to 300 or more with bad penetration all day no heat? I have asked this before on a specific number of decks and penetration( I forget now). The only thing I got was penetration is the holy grail anything less forget about it. I get that if the penetration only was 1 deck on 6 decks then bet spread may be worthless. At what point would you give up some penetration for incredible bet spread opportunities?

Note that this has nothing to do with the cut card effect.

It's not worthless, with the right conditions. But you will never get these conditions in a casino.

PM me. I think I know what you are talking about.