blackjack pays 2:1 EV
playing blackjack switch (normally pays 1:1 on blackjack), assuming the probability of blackjack is 0.0475 and on average about 21 hands are played before a blackjack.
also, assuming the game has a 1% edge.
the coupon has an EV of the difference in payout minus the average cost of play until you can use the coupon. ($100-$50)-(.01*21*50)=$37.5, on blackjack switch.
do i have the logic right for figuring out the coupon EV? can anyone confirm or refute?
Quote: chrisrthey let me play it on switch.. i can't say for sure if this is the rule or an oversight..
Are you going to play Switch even without the coupon, or are you going to get up and leave once the coupon has been used? (I assume that you aren't interested in card counting, etc, so I won't get into that)
If you are planning to leave as soon as the coupon is used, then I think that your calculation looks good with the minor difference that you must play 2 hands at a time in BJ switch (so 1/2 the time you will have to play 1 extra hand beyond what you've calculated, so add 1/2 hand's EV to your cost).
If you are planning on playing anyway, and will continue playing after you use the coupon, then the coupon is just worth $50.
With as big a HE switch has on average players it would not shock me for them to allow it. Further, it probably would only apply the hand which gets BJ and so only half your bet gets to take advantage. I would also guess that it only applies to dealt BJs and not switched ones.Quote: chrisrthey let me play it on switch.. i can't say for sure if this is the rule or an oversight..
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI assume that you aren't interested in card counting, etc, so I won't get into that
i'm interested in it. but no desire to actually grind away with a 2% advantage.. I'm keeping my eye out and ear to the ground for an 8% advantage game.. then i'm there.
With a 1% edge and the ability to bet however you want (ie, no heat) you will win a lot of money in not a lot of time if you structure your bets properly. If you think that 1% is such a small edge, ask yourself why the high limit baccarat room looks so nice.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'd also like to point out that the casino makes lots and lots of money with edges in the 1-2% range. There is money there. While the larger edge is certainly nice, the real secret is getting money down when you have the edge.
With a 1% edge and the ability to bet however you want (ie, no heat) you will win a lot of money in not a lot of time if you structure your bets properly. If you think that 1% is such a small edge, ask yourself why the high limit baccarat room looks so nice.
it seems to me that the higher the edge you have the less bankroll you would need to make the same amount of money.. i was thinking of trying something like playing an A-5 count.. then switching to table max if the deck hits +8 (which if i programmed my simulator right would mean i'd be in the 6-7% range)
Quote: chrisrit seems to me that the higher the edge you have the less bankroll you would need to make the same amount of money.. i was thinking of trying something like playing an A-5 count.. then switching to table max if the deck hits +8 (which if i programmed my simulator right would mean i'd be in the 6-7% range)
1. Table min straight to table max will get you backed off in short order
2. Use a real count if you are serious.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice1. Table min straight to table max will get you backed off in short order
2. Use a real count if you are serious.
hmm i thought it would be a good way to get a lot of money on the table with high counts.
you play standard, doubling your bets to up to 16x when there are more As in the deck.. then you can jump the bet a lot when the deck is really good.
i don't really see how you trick the casino into ever letting you make huge bets like that when the decks are good really
Quote: chrisrhmm i thought it would be a good way to get a lot of money on the table with high counts.
you play standard, doubling your bets to up to 16x when there are more As in the deck.. then you can jump the bet a lot when the deck is really good.
i don't really see how you trick the casino into ever letting you make huge bets like that when the decks are good really
The secret is you don't. Jumping 16 units on a hot deck will almost always get you heat. This will result in your play being scrutinized by Surveillance in which case you are in trouble. Make smaller jumps, make the occasional bad play, drink loads of O'Douls and keep your play short.
Using this voucher and counting is a danger ous combination. The first time you use the voucher and get a blackjack later in the shoe, your goose is cooked.
Read up about cover plays but as Grosjean says "naked is the best cover". Just don't over play, keep the sessions short and get out.
I probably have to read up on this whole thing.. im basing everything off of that kevin spacey movie.
like i said i wouldn't really want to grind.. so i was looking for ways to get away with 6-7% edge.. which is probably requires being more clever than i am.
Quote: chrisrso the strategy is 1x..2x..4x..16x.. just based on the number of aces (i've heard adds about .5%).. so you are betting up to 16x occasionally and playing standard... then occasionally you make an erratic bet of say 100x units when the deck has a 6-7% advantage.
I probably have to read up on this whole thing.. im basing everything off of that kevin spacey movie.
like i said i wouldn't really want to grind.. so i was looking for ways to get away with 6-7% edge.. which is probably requires being more clever than i am.
If you are looking for an advantage that big, card counting isn't it. You will want to look at hole carding blackjack or perhaps card steering. (This is quite topical right now as a local Vegas casino recently broke up a steering operation).
No way you can get a 6 or 7% advantage counting cards.
Quote: TomspurIf you are looking for an advantage that big, card counting isn't it. You will want to look at hole carding blackjack or perhaps card steering. (This is quite topical right now as a local Vegas casino recently broke up a steering operation).
No way you can get a 6 or 7% advantage counting cards.
isn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?
Quote: chrisrisn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?
Depends on penetration and bet size.
There are many things involved in card counting. I would suggest you read up on Kelly, bet spreads, heat, different counting systems, basic strategy, deviations and most importantly penetration and the effect it has on your edge.
The bottom line is this. A card counter cannot get more than a MAXIMUM 1 % edge over the game by employing perfect playing in a casino with no heat and 75% penetration.
There are other things at work such as deck composition but it is pretty advanced with many more first steps to take.
If you are serious about gaining an edge rather look into other opportunities. That would be my suggestion.
Quote: chrisrright, so in the last deck, if the count were +12, you'd have a 6% advantage. if you place large bets at over +12 in double deck and negligable bets otherwise you would have around 6% advantage, no? am i thinking about that wrong?
Again, due to penetration (unseen cards) as well as the balance between your low bets and your 1 or 2 high ones, your advantage will never be more than 1%.
Remember you are still making table minimum wagers in low positve or indeed negative counts which will affect your overall advantage.
See it as a whole endeavor and not a bet by bet case. You cannot gain an advantage bigger than 1% by card counting, no matter where in the deck you are, UNLESS you wong in (read up on what that means) right at the end of the shoe in a +12 TC (would love to see that), have one bet at table max, then leave.......
This may give you a larger edge but you will have ZERO longevity. You will be asked to never play blackjack again.
Perhaps some more learned individuals here can comment. I'm only a lowly casino employee. I'm almost 100% positive I don't understand card counting too well :)
Quote: chrisrisn't the deck around a 6% advantage at a +12 hi-low count?
Sure. With a +12 true count. How often do you think that this happens?
Quote: chrisrright, so in the last deck, if the count were +12, you'd have a 6% advantage. if you place large bets at over +12 in double deck and negligable bets otherwise you would have around 6% advantage, no? am i thinking about that wrong?
You are thinking about it wrong. Those "negligible" bets are not negligible. They add up. You can go many hours without seeing a +12 true count.
This is really not a great approach to counting cards. Besides, don't you think that it might raise some eyebrows when the guy who has been betting $15 every hand for 3 hours suddenly comes out with a $2000 bet?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou are thinking about it wrong. Those "negligible" bets are not negligible. They add up. You can go many hours without seeing a +12 true count.
This is really not a great approach to counting cards. Besides, don't you think that it might raise some eyebrows when the guy who has been betting $15 every hand for 3 hours suddenly comes out with a $2000 bet?
you could play a less suspicious strategy so you'd be at maybe 0-1%, but when u see the +6 or +12 or whatever threshold you want.. you go crazy bet for a few hands then leave.. that would increase the edge past 1% i'd think..
but it sounds like it's not practical, since you'd get caught..
i just prefer getting plastered on free drinks and playing 10x or 100x craps.
Quote: chrisrso i was at the casino, this is the first time i am trying counting, really just practicing keeping the count, +10tc in the first shuffle. i raise my bet from $25 to $500 for 2 hands. i quit card counting forever. at least it was a good bet.
i just prefer getting plastered on free drinks and playing 10x or 100x craps.
Now you have to learn about risk of ruin and more importantly the Kelly Criterion.
Sorry it didn't work out bud. Card counting is far from fool proof,l in fact it is the worst AP play in the casino just about.
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how have you stayed under the radar?
