chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
• Posts: 141
March 27th, 2014 at 9:53:35 AM permalink
blackjack pays 2:1 up to \$50 coupon

playing blackjack switch (normally pays 1:1 on blackjack), assuming the probability of blackjack is 0.0475 and on average about 21 hands are played before a blackjack.

also, assuming the game has a 1% edge.

the coupon has an EV of the difference in payout minus the average cost of play until you can use the coupon. (\$100-\$50)-(.01*21*50)=\$37.5, on blackjack switch.

do i have the logic right for figuring out the coupon EV? can anyone confirm or refute?
Deucekies
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
• Posts: 1246
March 27th, 2014 at 12:14:38 PM permalink
First off, do you know for sure they'll allow you to play this coupon on Switch? It's very possible they will not.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
• Posts: 141
March 27th, 2014 at 2:05:15 PM permalink
they let me play it on switch.. i can't say for sure if this is the rule or an oversight..
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
March 27th, 2014 at 2:09:26 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

they let me play it on switch.. i can't say for sure if this is the rule or an oversight..

Are you going to play Switch even without the coupon, or are you going to get up and leave once the coupon has been used? (I assume that you aren't interested in card counting, etc, so I won't get into that)

If you are planning to leave as soon as the coupon is used, then I think that your calculation looks good with the minor difference that you must play 2 hands at a time in BJ switch (so 1/2 the time you will have to play 1 extra hand beyond what you've calculated, so add 1/2 hand's EV to your cost).

If you are planning on playing anyway, and will continue playing after you use the coupon, then the coupon is just worth \$50.
endermike
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
• Posts: 584
March 27th, 2014 at 2:09:27 PM permalink
Quote: chrisr

they let me play it on switch.. i can't say for sure if this is the rule or an oversight..

With as big a HE switch has on average players it would not shock me for them to allow it. Further, it probably would only apply the hand which gets BJ and so only half your bet gets to take advantage. I would also guess that it only applies to dealt BJs and not switched ones.
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
• Posts: 141
March 27th, 2014 at 3:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I assume that you aren't interested in card counting, etc, so I won't get into that

i'm interested in it. but no desire to actually grind away with a 2% advantage.. I'm keeping my eye out and ear to the ground for an 8% advantage game.. then i'm there.
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
March 27th, 2014 at 3:30:46 PM permalink
2%? You wish... :)
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
March 27th, 2014 at 3:44:16 PM permalink
I'd also like to point out that the casino makes lots and lots of money with edges in the 1-2% range. There is money there. While the larger edge is certainly nice, the real secret is getting money down when you have the edge.

With a 1% edge and the ability to bet however you want (ie, no heat) you will win a lot of money in not a lot of time if you structure your bets properly. If you think that 1% is such a small edge, ask yourself why the high limit baccarat room looks so nice.
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
• Posts: 141
March 27th, 2014 at 4:32:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I'd also like to point out that the casino makes lots and lots of money with edges in the 1-2% range. There is money there. While the larger edge is certainly nice, the real secret is getting money down when you have the edge.

With a 1% edge and the ability to bet however you want (ie, no heat) you will win a lot of money in not a lot of time if you structure your bets properly. If you think that 1% is such a small edge, ask yourself why the high limit baccarat room looks so nice.

it seems to me that the higher the edge you have the less bankroll you would need to make the same amount of money.. i was thinking of trying something like playing an A-5 count.. then switching to table max if the deck hits +8 (which if i programmed my simulator right would mean i'd be in the 6-7% range)
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012