Insurance: What can I get away with?
Quote: JimRockfordI am a basic strategy player, but I am considering a conservative counting strategy. I go to Vegas a couple of times a year. I don’t really play enough hands, and I don’t want to vary my bet enough to be assured of an advantage. All the same it would be fun use a conservative spread and reduce the house advantage without risking being backed off at my favorite casino. I have been advised that a 1 to 3 spread will go unnoticed. Knowing that the dealers and pit expect you to use the insurance bet as a hedge on a good hand, what would be a safe conservative policy for the insurance bet at a green/black chip table?
With a 1-3 spread your insurance bets should fly under the radar. Although many dealers and players believe it, insurance is not a hedge on a good hand. It is a side bet on the dealer's hole card. Buy insurance when the count calls for it regardless of the total of your hand.
Now, I think it's good protocol to give everyone a chance to take insurance, but it was an obvious play for me to make as the count was sky high. I just hesitated because my chip stack was low. I should have immediately said "Wait!" or "yes, I want insurance" and begun digging into my pocket. Good thing I'm not doing this to pay the rent :/
Quote: AcesAndEightsMinor on-topic gripe, at myself mostly. I had a max bet out and dealer showed an ace. She asked for insurance and gave us about a half second before checking her hole card and yep, face underneath. I hesitated because I didn't have enough chips to insure the full amount of my bet (I had plenty of cash in my pocket). So, I lost the big bet instead of keeping it >:o.
Now, I think it's good protocol to give everyone a chance to take insurance, but it was an obvious play for me to make as the count was sky high. I just hesitated because my chip stack was low. I should have immediately said "Wait!" or "yes, I want insurance" and begun digging into my pocket. Good thing I'm not doing this to pay the rent :/
I've had this happen before where the dealer just assumes no one wants insurance and flips. Generally I'm fast enough to say something and stop them and even when I'm not the pit usually sees what happened and tries to fix it, but at one casino that shall remain nameless (it rhymes with Hooters) the pit refused to fix anything despite having the chips in my hand over the circle at the time he flipped. The boss even refused to check the video saying it wouldn't matter and the bet was too late.
Quote: 1BBWith a 1-3 spread your insurance bets should fly under the radar. Although many dealers and players believe it, insurance is not a hedge on a good hand. It is a side bet on the dealer's hole card. Buy insurance when the count calls for it regardless of the total of your hand.
I understand that insurance is an independent bet, but I thought that treating it that way would look suspicious. So, you are saying that as long as I spread 1 to 3, I can get away with insuring stiff hands after having declined insurance on good hands?
Quote: JimRockfordI understand that insurance is an independent bet, but I thought that treating it that way would look suspicious. So, you are saying that as long as I spread 1 to 3, I can get away with insuring stiff hands after having declined insurance on good hands?
You are worrying too much about getting noticed and not enough about playing well. You are nowhere close to the place where you need to worry about it.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou are worrying too much about getting noticed and not enough about playing well. You are nowhere close to the place where you need to worry about it.
Thanks Axe. So, I can get away with all of the illustrious 18 and Fab 4 anytime the count calls for it with that spread.
Depends on a lot of things.Quote: JimRockfordSo, I can get away with all of the illustrious 18 and Fab 4 anytime the count calls for it with that spread.
The pitch games could possibly come under more scrutiny concerning play of the hand. Conservative bet spreads combined with proper play still make the game beatable under the right conditions.
With shoe games, the bet spread is far more important than play deviation.
Essentially, if playing a shoe game, the pit is apt to be more concerned about your spread than your play, because they know you need a reasonable spread to beat it, regardless of play deviation.
If playing pitch, they know a large spread may not be required if you are playing well (assuming it's a "playable" game).
Which game, under which rules?
Which casino, and which supervisor?
Quote: 1BBinsurance is not a hedge on a good hand.
What is the definition of a hedge ?
In my understanding it is any bet which (when combined with your current bet) reduces variance. As the insurance bets result is significantly anticorrelated to the main hands result (when insurance wins you lose the hand), it is at least a candidate for a hedge. Of course only hands with "high" probability of wins against the dealers Ace can reduce variance. I was interested in the topic some time ago. If I remember correctly (can check with a related paper somewhere) an insured 20 or 21 does indeed reduce variance.
Just to be clear, EV-wise the insurance bet does not depend on your hand. And if insurance is -EV, it will decrease combined EV as a fact. What could be archieved is a decrease in variance, which might be benefitial (less relative EV (= per unit bet) with less relative variance might actually allow you to increase the betting unit for the same risk of ruin, and might result in an increased absolute EV).
Quote: AcesAndEightsMinor on-topic gripe, at myself mostly. I had a max bet out and dealer showed an ace. She asked for insurance and gave us about a half second before checking her hole card and yep, face underneath. I hesitated because I didn't have enough chips to insure the full amount of my bet (I had plenty of cash in my pocket). So, I lost the big bet instead of keeping it >:o.
Now, I think it's good protocol to give everyone a chance to take insurance, but it was an obvious play for me to make as the count was sky high. I just hesitated because my chip stack was low. I should have immediately said "Wait!" or "yes, I want insurance" and begun digging into my pocket. Good thing I'm not doing this to pay the rent :/
It happened to me very recently too. I played two hands of max bets and I wanted to check both hands before buying insurance. The dealer said "Insurance?... No insurance" immediately. I did not have enough time to stop her. I did not really want to bring it up to the pit boss at that time because I had crappy hands. The only people who would insure those hands are the counters.
In the different casino, which is Venetian on the other day, I bought in $500 and I put five old $100 on the table. At the same time, the waitress asked to order some drink. I spent few seconds talking to the waitress and I was distracted. The dealer yelled "Check change $400" and the Pit boss said OK far away from the table. The dealer was almost in the motion to drop my money. Luckily, I could stop the dealer at very last millisecond. Those 5 bills are not sticky at all and I have no idea why the dealer could count only four there. The dealer did not apologize. I guess this is how they train them in Venetian.
Quote: rob45Depends on a lot of things.....
Which game, under which rules?
Which casino, and which supervisor?
S17 6 deck, 0.28% HE and S17 2deck 0.27% HE at the Mirage and occasionally other Strip properties, spreading $50 to $150. I take it that I may be right to be paranoid at the 2 deck game.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe question is not whether you should insure a blackjack against an ace, but what fraction of the bet you should insure.
Sounds a lot like the "even money" option, which is essentially the same math as insurance for the full amount. Of course, I hear people who wouldn't dream of taking insurance call for even money every time, regardless of count.
Quote: hwccdealerSounds a lot like the "even money" option, which is essentially the same math as insurance for the full amount. Of course, I hear people who wouldn't dream of taking insurance call for even money every time, regardless of count.
As I said, the question is, what fraction should you insure?
There is a choice between the extremes of "no insurance" and "taking even money". You can partially insure.
