What do you guys think of the Blackjack Jedi's mother of all losing streaks ?
There are other types of self-torture
Edited because I AM stupid....
Seriously annoyed you are linking so something I cant read especially where I may have to pay money at some point to became a member. I wonder if this is a rules violation and should be flaggedQuote: ArtemisWhat you guys think of the Blackjack Jedi's stories of the mother of all losing streaks? Can you guys top his losing streaks?
On 5/11/2010, after losing 385 max bets of $500 each, Blackjack Jedi wrote:
...Just an unbelievable run with wild swings. Every time I play the dealer either has a 20 or 21 or draws to it. Simulator says less than .1% probability as I typically wong in to 6 deck shoes with TC +2 at min..."
http://bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi/md/read/id/120499/sbj/blackjack-jedi-s-horror-story/
Note: Stanford Wong gave $100 to Blackjack Jedi for the above post of the month.
About 4 years later, Blackjack Jedi has been still in the mother of all losing streaks. On 1/18/2014, after losing 700 max bets of $500 each, Blackjack Jedi wrote:
"...I have played for over 17 years now. I am a cpa and attorney by trade and am a skilled player (barred at virtually everywhere I have played and still play at most of them). My dad was Allan Wilson, author of Casino Gamblers Guide and a card counter himself... Years 12 - 17 (present). Hold your breath. [I lost] - 700 max bets..."
http://bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi/md/read/id/156209/sbj/worst-down-swing-ever/
You need to get a free password to read the above gonzo stories through this link:
https://secure.bj21.com/docs/landing/
Is that amusing everyone plays BJ?Quote: LVJackalsupposing I am not stupid (which is quite a leap) a .1% probability is 1/1000, a .01 is therefore 1/10,000, and a .001 1/100,000 (one in a hundred thousand) most lottery winners are 1/250,000,000 but lets move to 4 winners in 1,000,000,000(4 in a billion). While the odds of this happening are remote, given the current world population: 16 people should suffer like this. BJ Jedi would therefore be either: lying, or should bond with the other 15 to form the "We Validate Statistics/AKA God Hates us" Coalition.
Edited because I AM stupid....
Quote: AxelWolfIs that amusing everyone plays BJ?
Does anyone have an opinion as to whether BJ21 is worth the money? I'm not really a blackjack player but I've heard that other games get discussed there.
Quote: AxelWolfSeriously annoyed you are linking so something I cant read especially where I may have to pay money at some point to became a member. I wonder if this is a rules violation and should be flaggedQuote: ArtemisWhat you guys think of the Blackjack Jedi's stories of the mother of all losing streaks? Can you guys top his losing streaks?
On 5/11/2010, after losing 385 max bets of $500 each, Blackjack Jedi wrote:
...Just an unbelievable run with wild swings. Every time I play the dealer either has a 20 or 21 or draws to it. Simulator says less than .1% probability as I typically wong in to 6 deck shoes with TC +2 at min..."
http://bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi/md/read/id/120499/sbj/blackjack-jedi-s-horror-story/
Note: Stanford Wong gave $100 to Blackjack Jedi for the above post of the month.
About 4 years later, Blackjack Jedi has been still in the mother of all losing streaks. On 1/18/2014, after losing 700 max bets of $500 each, Blackjack Jedi wrote:
"...I have played for over 17 years now. I am a cpa and attorney by trade and am a skilled player (barred at virtually everywhere I have played and still play at most of them). My dad was Allan Wilson, author of Casino Gamblers Guide and a card counter himself... Years 12 - 17 (present). Hold your breath. [I lost] - 700 max bets..."
http://bj21.com/greenchip/misc_bj/index.cgi/md/read/id/156209/sbj/worst-down-swing-ever/
You need to get a free password to read the above gonzo stories through this link:
https://secure.bj21.com/docs/landing/
+1 why link something to in which you need membership to read?
For those of you unable to read the post, Blackjackjedi posted his results over the last 17 years broken up into 3-6 year segments that went like this:
years 1-4 (playing mostly good single @ double deck games) +600 max bets (max bet of $500)
years 5-7 -155 max bets
years 8-11 +320 max bets
years 12-17 -700 max bets.
I assumed the totals given are the total for each segment of years and by my math that puts him +65 max bets or $32,500 for the 17 years. While still on the plus side, this obviously would be significantly below expectation for the amount of time played, which he also listed. We then would get into the discussion as to whether blackjackjedi was playing as +EV as he though he was, and maybe wonder about his skill level and to a lesser extend the possibility of being cheated, which he questioned (unlikely but he did play at some Indian Casinos, for your consideration).
Now the above is by my numbers. Someone else read the post to mean that those win/loss totals were the average for EACH of those years. In other words years 12-17 resulted in -700 max bets EACH year or -4200 max bets over the six years period of years 12-17. I think that interpretation is less likely but there is a HUGE difference and as I said, blackjackjedi didn't respond to clear up any confusion.
I don't know blackjackjedi and it would be a stretch to try to figure out just how competent his play is under any circumstances, but you can't even begin to think about doing so, until we have had further clarification of his numbers.
I will say that there are a couple things I found very odd about BJJ's post. One is that he mentions who his father is by name, as if that lends some credibility to HIS abilities. I can't imagine any AP outing themselves like that. Two, he talks about being barred at every casino he has played in, as if THAT lends some credibility to his abilities. Often I see guys 'hawking' books or video for sale make such claims. In my mind it does just the opposite for your credibility as an AP. Being an AP isn't just about putting the money out during an advantage. It is about figuring ways to get your play in and NOT get kicked out of every place that you play.
Quote: ArtemisWhat you guys think of the Blackjack Jedi's stories of the mother of all losing streaks?
Better him than me.
Quote: mickeycrimmDoes anyone have an opinion as to whether BJ21 is worth the money?
Since nobody else commented ...
My impressions are from several years back before I dropped it. The BJ21 membership was savvy but secretive. Valuable details were only shared privately.
It's probably a good resource for an aspiring blackjack player because the accumulated content is so vast.
Quote: gpac1377Quote: mickeycrimmDoes anyone have an opinion as to whether BJ21 is worth the money?
Since nobody else commented ...
My impressions are from several years back before I dropped it. The BJ21 membership was savvy but secretive. Valuable details were only shared privately.
It's probably a good resource for an aspiring blackjack player because the accumulated content is so vast.
I would agree with this. I have had a membership for about 2 years, although lately I haven't been reading or posting much.
There is a vast amount of archived content from experienced, competent pros and semi-pros. If you read regularly I firmly believe you will become a better card counter just by assimilating various tips and tricks of the trade. I've barely delved into the archives, but just reading day-to-day you will assimilate lots of useful information.
There is some non-counting content as well, but I would say the biggest thrust of the site is counting. Clearly many of the members have moved on to other advantage plays (primarily hole carding, whether it be BJ or carnival games); gpac's comment about the members being secretive is also true. If you're hoping that joining will get you in a secret club where you learn about opportunities, you are going to be disappointed. In fact almost any time a newbie posts too many details about an opportunity, the post gets busted.
For $90/year, I consider it a worthy investment for all but the lowest bankrolled card counters. Even as a hobbyist I consider a worthwhile investment. Where else can you post a question and potentially get an answer from Stanford Wong AND Don Schlesinger?
For a machine player like yourself (mickey), I doubt it would be worth the money.
The archives is a huge benefit. You not only get the benefit of current members experiences, but some pretty successful players from many years. Some that have passed or no longer participate, because they have moved on to other things.
Secrecy: They are very sensitive to any detailed talk of HCing or any of the topics from Grosjean's 'Bible'. It is common knowledge that casino personnel are members of the site. I guess they think the casino industry isn't aware of the contents of "the book". lol
For myself, one of the biggest advantages of membership has been the contacts that I have made and members that I network with in private. It takes a few years of participation in the community for the 'trust factor' to kick in, but then you begin to network and share info, via private messages (norm's site) or email as Wong's site does not have private message capability.
Funny thing though, the veil of secrecy still looms. I have guys that I have networked with for years now that I still have not met, know their actual first name and their email address is set up for only these specific communications. There is ALWAYS a trust factor. lol And that goes for the information that is shared in private as well. Guys are hesitant about sharing info on game conditions, especially their better opportunities. Funny, they are always willing to share just about the time an opportunity has run it's course and is drying up. lol
But that's ok with me. For the most part I use my networking more for the 'heat' angle. And my private network guys are more willing to share their experiences with heat related issues. Since longevity is one of my top priorities, identifying and playing within comfort or tolerance levels of different casinos is paramount to me, so this has been very valuable to me.
Quote: kewljWong's site: $59 a year, or quarterly payments of $14.75, not $90.
WTF! I had no idea there was a discount for yearly. Here I have been paying $14.75/quarter since January 2012....god damn it.
Thanks for enlightening me, KJ.
Quote: Ibeatyouraces$14.75 x 4 = $59.00.
Oh my god. Perhaps I should not be counting cards, if I can't multiply $15 by 4 quarters.
For some reason I had it in my head that I was paying $90/year. I have no idea why I was multiplying the $15 quarterly fee by 6 instead of 4.
Quote: kewljFirst of all the post in question was confusing and raised some questions and true to his word, blackjackjedi did not respond to clear anything up.
For those of you unable to read the post, Blackjackjedi posted his results over the last 17 years broken up into 3-6 year segments that went like this:
years 1-4 (playing mostly good single @ double deck games) +600 max bets (max bet of $500)
years 5-7 -155 max bets
years 8-11 +320 max bets
years 12-17 -700 max bets.
Well it kind of depends on how many total max bets there were, right? If during years 12-17 there was a total of 1000 big bets, he hit 150 and lost 850, for a net of -700, then clearly there's something going on other than negative variance or bad luck -- a chi-square test would show that. On the other hand, if he attempted 10,000 big bets and ended up net -700, that's entirely plausible.
