A huge card counting myth
Quote: Dicenor33Funeral homes give you 100% guarantee that the person inside the coffin is dead.
Might wanna get a lawyer for the fine print on zombies, the undead, Jesus Christ resurrections, blowfish poisoning victims, guys who crossed the mob and ended up buried alive, people in comas, etc.
Welcome to the forum. Dont get discouraged at the other posters as this is the way new members are initiated here.Quote: winnawinnaI first want to say this is a great forum. This is my first post on this forum but I was part of another BJ forum that shut down a couple of years ago. One of the biggest myths of card counting is the fact that a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand. It gives you an advantage over the house because it allows you to bet more money with a greater chance of getting two high cards. The dealer also has this same chance to get those high cards. Many people think that with a high count, winning is almost certain but that's not the case. How many of us had extremely high counts TC>5, playing two hands and the dealer showing a 6, only to turn over a 5, then another 5, then another 5. I have seen it before and other situations like that in very high counts.
Quote: winnawinnaI was part of another BJ forum that shut down a couple of years ago. One of the biggest myths of card counting is the fact that a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand.
May I ask the name of the other forum? Sounds like it would be amusing :)
Quote: mdhWelcome to the forum. Dont get discouraged at the other posters as this is the way new members are initiated here.
Oh I don't get discouraged because I know what I can do at the tables and its all good. Lets all make some money
Quote: winnawinnaOne of the biggest myths of card counting is the fact that a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand.
Wait..."a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand" is a myth?
(And what a coincidence: I'm posting this just after having finished a chickendinna)
Would that it were so! I want my positive count guaranteed winning hand dammit!
Quote: winnawinnaI first want to say this is a great forum. This is my first post on this forum but I was part of another BJ forum that shut down a couple of years ago. One of the biggest myths of card counting is the fact that a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand. It gives you an advantage over the house because it allows you to bet more money with a greater chance of getting two high cards. The dealer also has this same chance to get those high cards. Many people think that with a high count, winning is almost certain but that's not the case. How many of us had extremely high counts TC>5, playing two hands and the dealer showing a 6, only to turn over a 5, then another 5, then another 5. I have seen it before and other situations like that in very high counts.
What about Speed Count…?
And as an aside tc = +14 is where the advantage per each +1 of tc starts to diminish because of the increasing likelihood of player/dealer pushes starting to override the value of double downs, player blackjacks and dealers busting stiffs.
Quote: winnawinnaDid I say something wrong here cause Im getting terrible feedback. If you read many posts on this forum, many people elude to the fact that a +count makes it a likely sure win. I m just saying that its not the case
In the long run it is a lock +EV play. However we also agree that in the short run, variance can be a pain. Bet sizing is crucial so that you can take advantage of high +EV but survive the variance still in play.
No you didn't say anything wrong. Your statement sounded as if you were a novice. Practically everyone on this forum that plays BJ realizes what you said in your original statement. It sounded like a kid who just learned his ABC's and then telling his older brother, A is the first letter of the alphabet. My big brother would have said, "NO DUH!" and thumped me in the head.Quote: winnawinnaDid I say something wrong here cause Im getting terrible feedback. If you read many posts on this forum, many people elude to the fact that a +count makes it a likely sure win. I m just saying that its not the case
It may have went better If you would have started your statement out by saying, Anyone thinking about starting a card counting career, should think twice, just because the count gets high, dose not mean you will win, here is why.......
Quote: winnawinnaDid I say something wrong here cause Im getting terrible feedback. If you read many posts on this forum, many people elude to the fact that a +count makes it a likely sure win. I m just saying that its not the case
This is not your average forum. WELCOME
My explanation is that you sometimes has a 2% edge in BJ, Think of a jar with 51 black balls and 49 white ones. Why should you be surprised if you get a white ball ?
Stick around a while and I think you'll like it here. Only a few jerks here, present company included.
Quote: winnawinnaDid I say something wrong here cause Im getting terrible feedback. If you read many posts on this forum, many people elude to the fact that a +count makes it a likely sure win. I m just saying that its not the case
You did say something wrong, but I think everyone knows what you meant (and what you meant is right).
In your original post, you said that it was a myth that a high count does not guarantee you to win the hand. That is backwards, of course: It is true that a high count does not guarantee you to win the hand.
Also, pretty much everyone here already knows this, so it is a little strange for a first post. It would be like going to a conference full of mathematicians and telling them that 1+1=2.
It's not a big deal. People just like to respond snarkily when they are bored. You didn't actually offend anyone. Welcome!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou did say something wrong, but I think everyone knows what you meant (and what you meant is right).
In your original post, you said that it was a myth that a high count does not guarantee you to win the hand. That is backwards, of course: It is true that a high count does not guarantee you to win the hand.
Also, pretty much everyone here already knows this, so it is a little strange for a first post. It would be like going to a conference full of mathematicians and telling them that 1+1=2.
It's not a big deal. People just like to respond snarkily when they are bored. You didn't actually offend anyone. Welcome!
That is exactly what I meant. Some people think that good counts result it a sure win. My point was the dealer has the same advantage as we do in drawing good cards. Our only advantage comes from increasing our bets since we are more than likely to get a high card(s) and wiping out any losses from -counts.
Quote: djatcAll I know is that I get paid 3:2 on blackjacks and the dealer only gets my 1:1. Also doubling my 11 on a high count will give me a greater probability of getting a 21 for a win or a draw.
That's all you need to know. Oh yeah, and don't eat yellow snow.
Quote: Dicenor33Casinos love people who count cards. You are no mystery to them, they know everything about you. It's when they can not figure you out, this is what worries them. You have to slip under the radar.
That's harder than counting IMO. You have to sometimes lose some EV to increase your longevity. Longevity is key when you are an AP. Also seeking out good games as someone mentioned is also important. Good thing for CVCX so you can determine what spreads are profitable for any given game.
Quote: djatcAll I know is that I get paid 3:2 on blackjacks and the dealer only gets my 1:1. Also doubling my 11 on a high count will give me a greater probability of getting a 21 for a win or a draw.
And beauty is truth, truth beauty.
Quote: winnawinnaYou have to sometimes lose some EV to increase your longevity. Longevity is key when you are an AP.
Longevity is key. All the skill in the world does you no good if you can't apply it, and can't play at most places. Just ask some of the MIT guys.
I disagree with giving up EV to increase longevity though, in all but rare cases of very high stakes players. For most players, even those of us spreading to black, card counting provides a very slim advantage. Razor slim. And a whole lot of variance and negative swings to get there. So I am unwilling to give up much of this tiny advantage. Especially in shoe games.
Playing cover, which is when you purposely don't make the best play, doesn't do much anyway. Card counters are detected by spread in most cases. And they aren't even relying on people to count down any more. More and more places use software that just measures your wager amounts against different advantages. Even if you try to disguise your wagers by not using uniform amounts the software will still show what your average bets are at different advantages, and they will be higher average bets at different higher advantages. In my mind, the best cover is just short sessions. Don't give enough time or info to form any conclusions. My own rule of thumb is once through the bet cycle and I am gone. As soon as I show my max bet, I exit at the next shuffle.
And welcome to the board, winnawinna. Keep in mind that this isn't a blackjack only site, as our previous site was. And some of the members here are just a little (<- lol) 'snarly' at times.
Quote: kewljLongevity is key. All the skill in the world does you no good if you can't apply it, and can't play at most places. Just ask some of the MIT guys.
I disagree with giving up EV to increase longevity though, in all but rare cases of very high stakes players. For most players, even those of us spreading to black, card counting provides a very slim advantage. Razor slim. And a whole lot of variance and negative swings to get there. So I am unwilling to give up much of this tiny advantage. Especially in shoe games.
Playing cover, which is when you purposely don't make the best play, doesn't do much anyway. Card counters are detected by spread in most cases. And they aren't even relying on people to count down any more. More and more places use software that just measures your wager amounts against different advantages. Even if you try to disguise your wagers by not using uniform amounts the software will still show what your average bets are at different advantages, and they will be higher average bets at different higher advantages. In my mind, the best cover is just short sessions. Don't give enough time or info to form any conclusions. My own rule of thumb is once through the bet cycle and I am gone. As soon as I show my max bet, I exit at the next shuffle.
And welcome to the board, winnawinna. Keep in mind that this isn't a blackjack only site, as our previous site was. And some of the members here are just a little (<- lol) 'snarly' at times.
KewlJ good to see you. I remember you from the other board. Hey how is Flash doing? I was in constant contact with him but haven't heard from him in awhile.
Quote: gpac1377May I ask the name of the other forum? Sounds like it would be amusing :)
Not amusing at all, in fact one of the best blackjack forums available with lots of smart, knowledgeable people. People who were willing to help others without judgement or ridicule. The owner went on to other things but the site's archives are constantly studied and referred to by serious blackjack players to this day.
Quote: 1BBNot amusing at all, in fact one of the best blackjack forums available with lots of smart knowledgeable people. People who were willing to help others without judgement or ridicule. The owner went on to other things but the site's archives are constantly studied and referred to by serious blackjack players to this day.
1BB you are right on about that forum. I was a member there for over 4 years and met many good BJ players there. Too bad its gone now.
Quote: winnawinnaThat is exactly what I meant. Some people think that good counts result it a sure win. My point was the dealer has the same advantage as we do in drawing good cards. Our only advantage comes from increasing our bets since we are more than likely to get a high card(s) and wiping out any losses from -counts.
And again you're missing the point: no one on this forum, to my or anyone's knowledge, has said or would say it's a sure win. If you think someone's implied this, you're welcome to link the post.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIt's not a big deal. People just like to respond snarkily when they are bored. You didn't actually offend anyone. Welcome!
Yeah, it was sort of a not so warm welcome for someone who sounds knowledgeable about BJ. Of course much of the forum does think his original post is somewhat common knowledge, but it is better to reiterate correct statements than create new fallacies, imo.
So welcome winnawinna!
But before a more serious response was given, this one did make me crack a smile.
Quote: Dicenor33Funeral homes give you 100% guarantee that the person inside the coffin is dead.
Quote: 1BBNot amusing at all, in fact one of the best blackjack forums available with lots of smart, knowledgeable people. People who were willing to help others without judgement or ridicule.
Oh, in that case I probably wouldn't be interested :(
(I assume we're talking about blackjackinfo [Ken Smith]. Are we not allowed to mention it?)
Quote: tringlomaneYeah, it was sort of a not so warm welcome for someone who sounds knowledgeable about BJ. Of course much of the forum does think his original post is somewhat common knowledge, but it is better to reiterate correct statements than create new fallacies, imo.
In that case, allow me to point out that 1+1=2.
Quote: gpac1377Oh, in that case I probably wouldn't be interested :(
(I assume we're talking about blackjackinfo [Ken Smith]. Are we not allowed to mention it?)
There you go....in all seriousness this is a great forum. It seems many of us here are very knowledgeable about the game. Some like myself are APs and make a decent income playing BJ. For me its more of a hobby as I have a replenishable BR but I do play a couple times a week.
Quote: winnawinnaThat is exactly what I meant. Some people think that good counts result it a sure win. My point was the dealer has the same advantage as we do in drawing good cards. Our only advantage comes from increasing our bets since we are more than likely to get a high card(s) and wiping out any losses from -counts.
Earlier you asked why you're getting "terrible feedback", but it looks like you haven't read any of the answers.
Can you post a picture?
SFB
Quote: SFBWinnaWinna:
Can you post a picture?
SFB
OF??????????????
Quote: winnawinnaOF??????????????
They are bored around here. So post a picture. Give them some red meat (skin) to talk about.
Hold up a sign.
Your thread will be 38 pages in no time...
SFB
Quote: winnawinnaOF??????????????
we won't know you're real unless you post a picture . standard requirement for everyone who claims he or she is an AP.
e.g.
Quote: gpac1377Oh, in that case I probably wouldn't be interested :(
(I assume we're talking about blackjackinfo [Ken Smith]. Are we not allowed to mention it?)
That's the site and, yes, you can mention it. When the forum closed Norm started Blackjack:TheForum and many members from the closed site signed up. Sometime later that became a paid private site although a couple of the blackjack forums can still be accessed and posted on without paying.
Quote: ThatDonGuyWait..."a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand" is a myth?
(And what a coincidence: I'm posting this just after having finished a chickendinna)
You must be lucky that you are able to eat. The last time that I was caught counting cards, my jawbone got so sore that I couldn't eat for days. I feel a little sorry for the casino, however, because it was so easy to win $100,000+ in 20 minutes! If you ever have that problem of getting beaten up, I recommend that you count in Atlantic City where (thanks to Ken Uston) it's illegal for casinos to beat up players. I have heard that AC casinos would like to be allowed to beat players, because they lose so much money from all those counters. If they can't beat up counters, how are they supposed to make a profit?
Quote: nvr55xxQuote: ThatDonGuyWait..."a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand" is a myth?
(And what a coincidence: I'm posting this just after having finished a chickendinna)
You must be lucky that you are able to eat. The last time that I was caught counting cards, my jawbone got so sore that I couldn't eat for days. I feel a little sorry for the casino, however, because it was so easy to win $100,000+ in 20 minutes! If you ever have that problem of getting beaten up, I recommend that you count in Atlantic City where (thanks to Ken Uston) it's illegal for casinos to beat up players. I have heard that AC casinos would like to be allowed to beat players, because they lose so much money from all those counters. If they can't beat up counters, how are they supposed to make a profit?
I cant imagine an AC casino allowing a MIT like team to swoop in on their 8 deck 50% pen pref shuffling and flat betting and let themselves be destroyed. If they can't bar you can't they just flat bet you after your first 1-100 spread?
I've always wondered what the public perception of others is when you tell them you count cards or are a professional gambler. In the poker boom it was understood if you told people you are a poker player, but now that's getting tough to explain as well. One co-worker of mine back home said I was "cheating casinos" for a living. I don't think he meant it that I would alter any games to my favor (such as rigging jackpots on slots) but he meant to say I beat them mathematically in their own game. Lots of people still think AP is cheating, period. Oh the guy that always plays video poker and hits royals? He must be cheating, but what they don't know is you are statistically due for one every 40k hands, and playing 800 hands/hr that equals 50 hours, which is a normal workweek or 2 for a pro.
Quote: nvr55xxQuote: ThatDonGuyWait..."a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand" is a myth?
(And what a coincidence: I'm posting this just after having finished a chickendinna)
You must be lucky that you are able to eat. The last time that I was caught counting cards, my jawbone got so sore that I couldn't eat for days. I feel a little sorry for the casino, however, because it was so easy to win $100,000+ in 20 minutes! If you ever have that problem of getting beaten up, I recommend that you count in Atlantic City where (thanks to Ken Uston) it's illegal for casinos to beat up players. I have heard that AC casinos would like to be allowed to beat players, because they lose so much money from all those counters. If they can't beat up counters, how are they supposed to make a profit?
I was in Atlantic City the day Resorts opened their doors to gambling and was very aware of the teams in place at the blackjack tables. I also followed Uston v. Resorts International Hotel Inc. very closely. We all did. It did not, to the best of my knowledge, address the legality of casinos "beating up" players.
Never mind that. I would love to hear how you won 100k in twenty minutes. Did you use the Ace-five count? That's got to be a great story!
Of course he assumed you were cheating, ALL ASIANS cheat ......One day security will think the same thing and be on you like white on rice. With your bad eyesight, you wont even see it coming . Once they find out what drive forgetaboutit. You will find comfort in knowing Louie will be there to lick your wounds.Quote: djatc
I've always wondered what the public perception of others is when you tell them you count cards or are a professional gambler. In the poker boom it was understood if you told people you are a poker player, but now that's getting tough to explain as well. One co-worker of mine back home said I was "cheating casinos" for a living. I don't think he meant it that I would alter any games to my favor (such as rigging jackpots on slots) but he meant to say I beat them mathematically in their own game. Lots of people still think AP is cheating, period. Oh the guy that always plays video poker and hits royals? He must be cheating, but what they don't know is you are statistically due for one every 40k hands, and playing 800 hands/hr that equals 50 hours, which is a normal workweek or 2 for a pro.
Quote: 1BBQuote: nvr55xxQuote: ThatDonGuyWait..."a positive count does not give you a guarantee of winning that particular hand" is a myth?
(And what a coincidence: I'm posting this just after having finished a chickendinna)
You must be lucky that you are able to eat. The last time that I was caught counting cards, my jawbone got so sore that I couldn't eat for days. I feel a little sorry for the casino, however, because it was so easy to win $100,000+ in 20 minutes! If you ever have that problem of getting beaten up, I recommend that you count in Atlantic City where (thanks to Ken Uston) it's illegal for casinos to beat up players. I have heard that AC casinos would like to be allowed to beat players, because they lose so much money from all those counters. If they can't beat up counters, how are they supposed to make a profit?
I was in Atlantic City the day Resorts opened their doors to gambling and was very aware of the teams in place at the blackjack tables. I also followed Uston v. Resorts International Hotel Inc. very closely. We all did. It did not, to the best of my knowledge, address the legality of casinos "beating up" players.
Never mind that. I would love to hear how you won 100k in twenty minutes. Did you use the Ace-five count? That's got to be a great story
