True Count of +1
Quote: BizzyBI typically raise my bet slightly (not like I do at plus 2) when the count goes to plus 1, even if after the first hand of the shoe. But it occurred to me that I may not have an advantage after the first hand of the shoe, although I probably do on the last hand. Any thoughts?
Is this a floating advantage thing?
The problem with shoe games is you need a healthy spread to beat them, at least to beat them worthwhile. A 1-12 or 1-16 spread. Lets go with 1-16. I like to have my max bet out by tc +4 or +5 at the latest. To wait any longer just doesn't do much because TC's of +6 or more just don't happen often enough in shoe games. So if I am going to have my top bet out by tc+4 or +5, you can see I need an aggressive ramp. None of this moving up one unit at a time. So my first real jump is at tc +2, where I have a small advantage. Bet 4 units. You can fill the rest in up to max bet of 16 units.
But lets concentrate on that first jump, from 1 unit to 4 units. That is a little bit of a jump. Not so much when playing red chips but at green and above, it is noticeable. By betting 2 units at that tc +1, when you are basically about even, helps 'smooth' out that first jump to 4 units and because +1 is basically even, it costs you nothing. It also makes you first few jumps in wager to all be parlays. 1-2-4-8. That means if you won the hand, you just stack the winnings and if you lost the hand, it looks like you are doubling up, attempting to get your money back.
And the floating advantage: I don't worry much about that. It really is pretty minor. It's chasing penny's, when you should be focused on chasing dollars.
Quote: kewljAnd the floating advantage: I don't worry much about that. It really is pretty minor. It's chasing penny's, when you should be focused on chasing dollars.
I completely agree. I was just wondering if that's what the OP was getting at.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI completely agree. I was just wondering if that's what the OP was getting at.
Yeah, I know. I was just hoping to steer the conversation away from that as it really is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. I figured on this site...being kind of math heavy, folks could go on talking about that for days. lol
Quote: kewljYeah, I know. I was just hoping to steer the conversation away from that as it really is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. I figured on this site...being kind of math heavy, folks could go on talking about that for days. lol
Guilty as charged!
Actually I'm not that interested in it... there are way more interesting concepts in blackjack. To me it seems like it just follows from the fact that fewer decks lowers the house edge, and everyone seems to just accept that without making a big deal out of it.
Back to the main topic -- if the count is "close" (eg +1 in a shoe game) I like to have 2 units out there so I can more easily get the big bets out if the count goes up. So, yeah, I agree with you.
In a game that is closer to even (say, 0.25% off the top) I usually just start with 2 units. I can always back off later.
Quote: kewljAt tc +1, you are basically about even on a shoe game. Lets assume very standard and mediocre h17 rules, house edge .63%. You gain roughly .54% per true count (assuming hi-lo), meaning at exactly tc +1, you are still slightly negative EV. But the TC +1 is rarely EXACTLY +1. It is actually a range that encompasses from tc +1 right up until tc +2. For example if the running count is +5 with 3 decks remaining, or +7 with 5 decks remaining, you are really above +1, but would still call it +1 and bet it as +1. So for the whole range of tc +1, your average tc would be high enough to be slightly positive. That in itself isn't really reason to raise your bet, but....
The problem with shoe games is you need a healthy spread to beat them, at least to beat them worthwhile. A 1-12 or 1-16 spread. Lets go with 1-16. I like to have my max bet out by tc +4 or +5 at the latest. To wait any longer just doesn't do much because TC's of +6 or more just don't happen often enough in shoe games. So if I am going to have my top bet out by tc+4 or +5, you can see I need an aggressive ramp. None of this moving up one unit at a time. So my first real jump is at tc +2, where I have a small advantage. Bet 4 units. You can fill the rest in up to max bet of 16 units.
But lets concentrate on that first jump, from 1 unit to 4 units. That is a little bit of a jump. Not so much when playing red chips but at green and above, it is noticeable. By betting 2 units at that tc +1, when you are basically about even, helps 'smooth' out that first jump to 4 units and because +1 is basically even, it costs you nothing. It also makes you first few jumps in wager to all be parlays. 1-2-4-8. That means if you won the hand, you just stack the winnings and if you lost the hand, it looks like you are doubling up, attempting to get your money back.
And the floating advantage: I don't worry much about that. It really is pretty minor. It's chasing penny's, when you should be focused on chasing dollars.
I don't have a bet spread per se. I just bet units times the count, and otherwise bet the table minimum. When the RC reaches 5.5, i generally bet 1 unit after the first hand (the bulk of which is the table min), even if there are 5.6 decks left. I should probably not do that anymore, unless I'm playing a game with excellent rules. That's all I was asking for those who were wondering. Thanks for the info.
Quote: kewlj
And the floating advantage: I don't worry much about that. It really is pretty minor. It's chasing penny's, when you should be focused on chasing dollars.
"Floating advantage?" What's that?
Quote: rhodyBob"Floating advantage?" What's that?
Read blackjack attack for the details. Basically your advantage increases slightly as you deal deeper into the deck, even if the true count doesn't move. The key word here is "slightly". It's small enough that it should probably be ignored while playing and bet sizing.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceRead blackjack attack for the details. Basically your advantage increases slightly as you deal deeper into the deck, even if the true count doesn't move. The key word here is "slightly". It's small enough that it should probably be ignored while playing and bet sizing.
It is my understanding that from after the first hand to the last hand of a deeply dealt shoe, it would be a like .5% increase for a positive count shoe. My understanding is that when you are playing at positive counts like +1, you are essentially going from a 6D game to a single deck game from the beginning of the shoe to the end. At negative counts, the disadvantage increases, but you are betting the minimum or wonging. So on the last hand of the shoe, wonging out slightly early, or ramping up on your bet slightly, is not a bad idea--so I understand. .5% is nothing to completely ignore, it just may not be practical to work it in to your system.
Quote: BizzyBI typically raise my bet slightly (not like I do at plus 2) when the count goes to plus 1, even if after the first hand of the shoe. But it occurred to me that I may not have an advantage after the first hand of the shoe, although I probably do on the last hand. Any thoughts?
It depends. On a standard game where the BS Ev is around -0.5% or -0.6% then at TC1 you are still on nagative teriitory.
But on a game with good rules with BS Ev better than -0.3% then at TC 1 you are around small positive territory, say +0.2%.
I personally used to play regulalry a game (not in US) of around -0.26%. I was increasing my bet at TC 1.
The other good thing by increasing the bet at TC 1, is that the increase in the betting level is smoother for cover purposes.
