Dealer upcard 2 consider like an A
According to: http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/discussion/comment/9619
The Average Dealer BUST Rate when the Dealer UPCARD is a :
2 = 35.30%
3 = 37.56%
4 = 40.28%
5 = 42.89%
6 = 42.08%
7 = 25.99%
8 = 23.86%
9 = 23.34%
10= 21.43%
A = 11.65%
Considering variations of blackjack where "PUSH 22" can increase the house edge to 5.85%, I can partially see how "like an A" is valid.
Any thoughts as to where this statement came from and statistics that can back it up?
"You're splitting nines against a nine??? you must not like money!!" is one of my favorite.
http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.com/article/the-blackjack-dealers-ace-59422
It talks about how
"2s will help the dealer string out more hands into long-sequence 21s, but not because the 2 is any more helpful to the dealer than it is to you. It's because the dealer hits more hands and gets more chances to string out the long ones."
I can see how statistically it can be bad in a negative count and in a PUSH 22, how it can be bag in a positive count.
OTOH, you'll be surprised how many 17-18-19's get made.
4TR, not counting Aces, a 2-up is the most likely rank to draw to 21.
Look up
Nickels_n_Bullets
that would be me. I did a few pop quizzes there at that time. the 2-up ---> 21 was one of them.
Quote: BlackjackGambitI was playing blackjack with a dealer that had an upcard of 2, and he told me that it's considered like an "A".
If the count was good you should have told him that you wanted to buy insurance.
Quote:Any thoughts as to where this statement came from and statistics that can back it up?
"The deuce is the dealer's ace" is just something that people who don't understand the game say. Ignore it. Pretty soon they will draw you into a discussion about taking a hit to save the table, and then all is lost.
Having said that, it's not THAT weak of an up-card for the dealer. It's no ace, but it's no 5 either.
Quote: BlackjackGambit2s will help the dealer string out more hands into long-sequence 21s
The thing about long-sequence 21's is that they are worth the same as short-sequence 21's.
One reason that an ace is such a powerful upcard for the dealer is that, in order to bust, he needs to go by 21 twice (soft, then hard). Also, he has blackjack almost 1/3 of the time. Neither of these things are true with a deuce.
I'd suggest ignoring anything that a dealer tells you. Maybe 1 in 4 of them have a clue.
Same goes for other players, except that ratio is probably closer to 1 in 10.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf the count was good you should have told him that you wanted to buy insurance.
Excellent! +2 ;-)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe thing about long-sequence 21's is that they are worth the same as short-sequence 21's.
One reason that an ace is such a powerful upcard for the dealer is that, in order to bust, he needs to go by 21 twice (soft, then hard). Also, he has blackjack almost 1/3 of the time. Neither of these things are true with a deuce.
I'd suggest ignoring anything that a dealer tells you. Maybe 1 in 4 of them have a clue.
Same goes for other players, except that ratio is probably closer to 1 in 10.
1 in 4 dealers have a clue...you're too generous my good man. Maybe 1 in 10...and 1 player in 20.
Quote: vendman11 in 4 dealers have a clue...you're too generous my good man. Maybe 1 in 10...and 1 player in 20.
And you sir are be generous to a fault.
Quote: vendman11 in 4 dealers have a clue...you're too generous my good man. Maybe 1 in 10...and 1 player in 20.
1 in 20 players? I met 1 non-counter who knew basic strategy. So 1 out of 10,000 is a bit more accurate. Dealers, it's about 1 in 100. Anybody ever find a copy of the "New Book" by Anonymous?
Quote: BizzyB1 in 20 players? I met 1 non-counter who knew basic strategy. So 1 out of 10,000 is a bit more accurate. Dealers, it's about 1 in 100. Anybody ever find a copy of the "New Book" by Anonymous?
Still looking. Someone offered it to me for about $4k and I declined.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceStill looking. Someone offered it to me for about $4k and I declined.
Any player or dealer who refers to the "New Book" without knowing it doesn't exist falls into the clueless category, even if they ultimately decide doubling an 11 against a 10 is the best choice.
