beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14232
December 17th, 2013 at 9:42:15 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

Thanks for the input, Babs. The problem with hitting a five-card 17 in a single deck is you always have some of the cards you need in your hand. Example: You hold T,2,2,2,A against a dealer 8. If you hit there are only 12 of 46 cards that will automatically win for you. So the win rate is 12/46 = 26%. One would have to know how often T,2,2,2,A wins by standing against an 8 to make the correct decision which way to go. With the myriad of combinations the dealer can make, that is math that is way over my head.

Well said, mickey, and you're welcome, though it wasn't worth much, sorry.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Greasyjohn
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
• Posts: 2172
December 18th, 2013 at 5:17:48 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Also it's not all that uncommon for ploppies to just sit out until the shuffle at DD or SD, especially if the shoe/deck up to that point has been brutal. Only works if there are other players, of course.

What you say sounds correct, however, in a pitch game, which is all I play, the shuffle comes around soon enough that I just ride it out. I never make the wrong play for camo ( except sometimes not doubling soft 19 or 20 or splitting 10s while the suits are hovering) so I just take the good with the bad, and I'm adjusting my playing decisions and lowering my bets so I'm minimizing the effects of higher negative counts. And leaving the game in a high negative count looks like a counter move. If I was playing a shoe that's a different story. It takes longer for the -6 to disappear, so I'd probably take the phantom phone call. I get a kick out of discussing when my friend and I will meet for dinner when my friend is air.
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
December 18th, 2013 at 11:02:29 AM permalink
Have you ever had the phone ring during one of your phantom phone calls? Or does that only happen on sitcoms?

I still don't think that taking a bathroom break looks all that suspicious. Honestly I think it's less suspicious than going to a minimum bet, when you have been betting big before, especially if you are winning.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
December 18th, 2013 at 11:12:57 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Greasyjohn
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
• Posts: 2172
December 19th, 2013 at 1:59:12 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I keep mine on silent and vibrate.

I've always used a flip phone in the past that was nonfunctional so there was no ringing involved. Talking about rare plays, I've had the dealer expose their hole card on about five occasions but this never led to anything interesting like hitting a hard 18 or anything. Happened to me once at the Golden Nugget, the Las Vegas Club, The Four Queens and a couple other places I can't recall. I've been to Vegas over eighty times and never had a dealer inadvertently expose their hole card. It was always a mistake on the five occasions where it happened to me. But I have had the dealer blatantly expose the bottom card before the cut. If I'm sitting in, say, third of five positions and I get to cut the cards and the bottom card is a 10 or ace (a lot of ifs) I'll try to cut exactly 10 cards in order to steer the ace or 10 to me ( or cut 13 cards in order to steer a 5 or 6 to the dealer). I practice cutting an exact amount of cards in my spare time.
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
• Posts: 5339
December 19th, 2013 at 3:22:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Have you ever had the phone ring during one of your phantom phone calls? Or does that only happen on sitcoms?

I still don't think that taking a bathroom break looks all that suspicious. Honestly I think it's less suspicious than going to a minimum bet, when you have been betting big before, especially if you are winning.

I'm embarrassed to say that it happened to me once when I got my first cell phone. Fortunately no one noticed and it has not and will not happen again. For the paranoid among us, the eye in the sky can zoom in on your phone. Take appropriate measures if this is not to your liking.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011