Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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December 17th, 2013 at 2:29:07 PM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

I haven't spoke to my wife in years. I don't want to interrupt her.



I got a truck for my wife, it was a good trade.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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December 17th, 2013 at 2:43:17 PM permalink
My wife was a good housekeeper. ..she kept mine.
She also had Pms I knew what that meant. .Pack my suitcase.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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December 17th, 2013 at 3:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I don't think that there is any count which dictates you hit any hard 17. That said, I've done it three times all against a ten up in high negative counts while heads up. Even though it was a bad play, two of the three I turned losers into winners and the other time I busted but would have lost had I stayed anyway. Edit. I think 17 vs A at -4TC becomes a hit. I'll have to recheck.



Maybe you blackjack guys can answer this question for me. When I played the full pay IGT video blackjack I gleaned the single deck composition strategy off the Wizard of Odds site. But the one rule in the game I couldn't get the strategy for was the 6 Card Charlie rule. In this video blackjack game if you made a 6 Card Charlie you AUTOMATICALLY WON.

Since I couldn't get this strategy off WOO I was dependent on other pros who told me the strategy. This is the strategy I was given for when you have FIVE CARDS IN YOUR HAND:

12, 13, 14, 15 = HIT

16 vs. dealer 4,5,6 = STAND, OTHERWISE HIT

17 vs. dealer 8,9,T,A = HIT, OTHERWISE STAND

I always wondered about the strategy of the 17 hitting against an 8,9,T,A. Can any of you guys shed some light?
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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December 17th, 2013 at 3:33:37 PM permalink
According to Wong,
14 hit all
15 stay vs 4,5,6
16 stay 2-6
This is for 5 card hands.There are additional changes for 4 card hands.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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December 17th, 2013 at 3:49:22 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

According to Wong,
14 hit all
15 stay vs 4,5,6
16 stay 2-6
This is for 5 card hands.There are additional changes for 4 card hands.



Thanks for the response. Lucky for me the five-card 17 vs. 8,9,T,A was a very rare situation.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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December 17th, 2013 at 4:58:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I understand not Wonging-in (if they don't let you, or if you don't think you can back-count non-obviously) but I think that not leaving at a -6 TC is a big mistake. Sure, it MIGHT turn around, but it also might not. Note that the TC does not tend to revert to 0 as you deal more cards (the RC does but not the TC -- re-read BJ Attack if you don't believe me!) so if you start a hand at -6TC, the expected starting TC for the next hand (and every subsequent hand until the shuffle) is also -6. Therefore, no reason to stay -- you are playing the rest of the shoe/deck at an expected 3% disadvantage (over and above the house edge off-the-top). You are (literally) better off sitting at a 6:5 table, reasoning that, well, the count might go up to +6 before the next hand.

Remember that everyone (ploppie or AP) needs to use the bathroom sometimes. I think that cutting your bet way back is actually MORE suspicious-looking than going to the bathroom.


Also it's not all that uncommon for ploppies to just sit out until the shuffle at DD or SD, especially if the shoe/deck up to that point has been brutal. Only works if there are other players, of course.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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December 17th, 2013 at 6:01:47 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

Maybe you blackjack guys can answer this question for me. When I played the full pay IGT video blackjack I gleaned the single deck composition strategy off the Wizard of Odds site. But the one rule in the game I couldn't get the strategy for was the 6 Card Charlie rule. In this video blackjack game if you made a 6 Card Charlie you AUTOMATICALLY WON.

Since I couldn't get this strategy off WOO I was dependent on other pros who told me the strategy. This is the strategy I was given for when you have FIVE CARDS IN YOUR HAND:

12, 13, 14, 15 = HIT

16 vs. dealer 4,5,6 = STAND, OTHERWISE HIT

17 vs. dealer 8,9,T,A = HIT, OTHERWISE STAND

I always wondered about the strategy of the 17 hitting against an 8,9,T,A. Can any of you guys shed some light?



This is from the Wizard's BJ appendix 1;




I'm looking at the huge break on how often you lose on 17 v. 8-9-T-A when standing, vs standing 17 against 7 or less.
You're losing .38 against an 8, higher as they go up. But a charlie is a sure win, and you win for sure 4/13 hands, or 30.77%, lose for sure 9 of 13; no "beat the dealer's total" left to worry about.

Hitting, you lose more than half the time on those particular cards, again getting worse as the dealer upcards improve. But an ace hit - charlie (for example) will win against ALL of those hands, not just lower ones. So, since that only has to change your advantage from the difference between hitting and standing, not the absolute amount of either, it pretty much makes sense that it's worth hitting. (Wimped out on figuring the exact numbers, but there's logical sense in it. Might make a good ATW question, to figure out the edge, unless I just haven't seen where he's published it.)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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December 17th, 2013 at 6:07:38 PM permalink
I think this chart is for multi deck.Wongs numbers were for single deck.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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December 17th, 2013 at 6:09:43 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I think this chart is for multi deck.Wongs numbers were for single deck.



You're right about the decks; this chart is for infinite decks. I meant for it to be an example, not definitive, because I don't have the math skills, but it could well matter.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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December 17th, 2013 at 7:57:48 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You're right about the decks; this chart is for infinite decks. I meant for it to be an example, not definitive, because I don't have the math skills, but it could well matter.



Thanks for the input, Babs. The problem with hitting a five-card 17 in a single deck is you always have some of the cards you need in your hand. Example: You hold T,2,2,2,A against a dealer 8. If you hit there are only 12 of 46 cards that will automatically win for you. So the win rate is 12/46 = 26%. One would have to know how often T,2,2,2,A wins by standing against an 8 to make the correct decision which way to go. With the myriad of combinations the dealer can make, that is math that is way over my head.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm

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