Taking insurance with 10 or 11
Quote: wrobersonI tend to take insurance when I have a hand like 10 and 11 v an Ace. My reasoning is, if the dealer have the ten I keep my money and if he or she doesn't I can double and have the chance to get the insurance bet loss back plus another 1/2. I don't know the math on this one, but it feels good and reasonable. Of course I could justify insurance with a pair of 8s.
Your hand does not matter with respect to insurance. Insurance is strictly a side bet having to do with the dealer's down card, and that's it.
If you are not counting, you should never take insurance...and that's that. If you are counting, take insurance if your system says you should. (+3 TC if using standard high-low).
The hand matters. It's not expected but anticipated.
Quote: wrobersonMy reasoning is, if the dealer have the ten I keep my money and if he or she doesn't I can double and have the chance to get the insurance bet loss back plus another 1/2.
Basically yes, that is the idea of any kind of "insurance": you aim for minimized potential losses. However, this comes at a (significant) cost: the house edge of the insurance bet itself.
Here you are talking about the insurance bet as a form of *variance* control. For variance control, it does make sense to take insurance on certain hands despite a negative EV of the insurance. The reasoning is: when you play a positive game you can tolerate negative EV bets if they decrease your variance - with decreased variance, you could ramp up your betting unit and will perform overall better (at the same risk of ruin).
However in your case the decreased variance of your 10 or 11 does not justify taking insurance, unless you play a significant portion of your overall wealth (which you should not be doing in the first place for two reasons: first it dramatically increases your risk of ruin, and second you might not be able to afford/justify your double down).
In short, don't take insurance unless you know exactly why you should.
Edited
Quote: 21formeMoral of the story - you can't argue against ploppy logic.
+1
Quote: wrobersonI tend to take insurance when I have a hand like 10 and 11 v an Ace. My reasoning is, if the dealer have the ten I keep my money and if he or she doesn't I can double and have the chance to get the insurance bet loss back plus another 1/2. I don't know the math on this one, but it feels good and reasonable. Of course I could justify insurance with a pair of 8s.
So you're paying a house edge of around 8% (8.8? iirc) for "peace of mind". I sleep better keeping my 8%.
2 wrongs don't make a right.
When I had a hand 11 v A, I remembered Vegas where I slowed the dealer down just so I could think about it a bit. It was one of the hands that had some memorable quality to me. Enough though to spend a few hours thinking about it.
I also remember that doubling soft hands v 2-6 sucks. There were so many and only a few paid. I knew this from home play, but I was so programmed, the action continued into the casino with the same losing result. There were just enough good hands, splits and doubles where the bet increased by the spread max, for me to call the trip satisfactory.
As far as a system, it's work intensive and not everyone will qualify.
Quote: wrobersonIt was something I ran into at home where I play for fun.
When I had a hand 11 v A, I remembered Vegas where I slowed the dealer down just so I could think about it a bit. It was one of the hands that had some memorable quality to me. Enough though to spend a few hours thinking about it.
I also remember that doubling soft hands v 2-6 sucks. There were so many and only a few paid. I knew this from home play, but I was so programmed, the action continued into the casino with the same losing result. There were just enough good hands, splits and doubles where the bet increased by the spread max, for me to call the trip satisfactory.
As far as a system, it's work intensive and not everyone will qualify.
You lose me a little more each time you post, William, so lets start at the beginning.
Do you know basic strategy cold for the games you play? Do you count and bet with the count? Do you have a bankroll and bet within it? That's all for now.
Am I the only one? Am I stupid or something?
Probably, but I get what your saying. ;)Quote: KeyserSozeI can't understand anything wroberson posts.
Am I the only one? Am I stupid or something?
Quote: IbeatyouracesIf it is H17, which it most likely is, you do double 11 vs A.
ahhh I am too used to playing S17
Quote: KeyserSozeI can't understand anything wroberson posts.
Am I the only one? Am I stupid or something?
Well if we say what we really want to say we get suspended.
Quote: KeyserSozeI can't understand anything wroberson posts.
Am I the only one? Am I stupid or something?
No, just part of the previously silent majority
Quote: wrobersonThe only answer I can give is with 8/3 and 9/2 I have one of the cards that gives dealer a pat hand upon reveal and I can double down.
Edited
One card is meaningless. You are completely wrong. You can insure good hands and not insure poor hands to control variance, as previously mentioned. Other than taking even money, I do not see how that strategy makes any sense when insuring below the index. You appear to be insuring a 10 then doubling it, which is far worse than average play. You are one of the worst players in the casino, and the casino has a high edge against you. Why don't you just listen?
To everyone who says one card can't make a difference, stop complaining about penetration. It doesn't make a difference.
Yes, I know BS and follow it as closely ask choose to. Yes I can count cards and have since 1992.
I didn't run into this situation in 9 hours of play this time
I was playing at the black-chip DD game at MGM grand a while ago. This girl is sitting there playing 2 hands, for $100 each. She gets a bad hand and a good hand (something like a 16, and a 20). The dealer shows an ace and asks for insurance. She puts out 2 green, which the dealer moved to be in the middle of her 2 hands (on the insurance arc). She then very emphatically points to her good hand and says "I'm insuring this one", making sure that the dealer knows which one she wants insurance on. She said it a couple of times, waiting for the dealer to confirm that she understood. Wouldn't want the dealer to screw up and accidentally insure the bad hand instead of the good one!
It took every ounce of self-control I had not to turn around and ask her "what's the difference?" I even kept a straight face.
I have heard dealers tell people they should only insure good hands. I think think people want to insure good hands because if the dealer dose not have blackjack they think they have a good chance to win. if they insure a bad hand they believe they will lose 2 times as much.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't think that this is an uncommon occurrence, but, I still found it hilarious.
I was playing at the black-chip DD game at MGM grand a while ago. This girl is sitting there playing 2 hands, for $100 each. She gets a bad hand and a good hand (something like a 16, and a 20). The dealer shows an ace and asks for insurance. She puts out 2 green, which the dealer moved to be in the middle of her 2 hands (on the insurance arc). She then very emphatically points to her good hand and says "I'm insuring this one", making sure that the dealer knows which one she wants insurance on. She said it a couple of times, waiting for the dealer to confirm that she understood. Wouldn't want the dealer to screw up and accidentally insure the bad hand instead of the good one!
It took every ounce of self-control I had not to turn around and ask her "what's the difference?" I even kept a straight face.
Quote: wrobersonTo those who can't understand my posts, that's not my fault. You can't go around blaming other people for your lack of understanding.
To everyone who says one card can't make a difference, stop complaining about penetration. It doesn't make a difference.
Yes, I know BS and follow it as closely ask choose to. Yes I can count cards and have since 1992.
I didn't run into this situation in 9 hours of play this time
Define "count cards".
Quote: AxelWolfI have heard dealers tell people they should only insure good hands. I think think people want to insure good hands because if the dealer dose not have blackjack they think they have a good chance to win. if they insure a bad hand they believe they will lose 2 times as much.
I get it. I just think that it's funny when they have 2 hands at the same time, they want to insure one of them, and they don't realize that it makes absolutely no difference which one they insure because the payouts are identical no matter what.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Quote: anonimussDefine "count cards".
Quote: wroberson
Yes, I know BS and follow it as closely ask choose to. Yes I can count cards and have since 1992.
The whole point of basic strategy is to follow it every time (excepting count-dependent deviations.) If you follow it "when you choose to," you're not playing basic strategy.
By the way, to answer your original question, insurance is simply a bet between you and the casino about whether or not the dealer has a 10 as his hole card. Your hand has no effect on the fact that it is a bad bet.
Say it's the first hand of a single-deck game. You have 9,2 and the dealer shows an ace. He offers you insurance.
Since you see three cards, you know there are 16 tens left in the deck, and 33 non-tens.
If the dealer has a ten in the hole, you get paid double your insurance bet. If he doesn't, you lose your insurance bet.
Assume your insurance bet is $10.
16 times out of 49, you win $20 each time, for a total of $320.
33 times out of 49, you lose $10 each time, for a total of -$330.
So, if you did it 49 times, you'd lose an average of $10 with a total of $490 bet on insurance.
-10/490 = -2.041%. So you can see that if you take insurance every time you have an 11 in single-deck blackjack, you are losing a little over 2% of your bet.
And that's the best-case scenario for insurance (without counting) -- you have two non-tens in a single-deck game. It just gets worse from there.
Quote: GWAEahhh I am too used to playing S17
Well, get used to H17 in Vegas unless you want to bet bigger, or 6:5, God forbid. Most states don't mandate S17. What is the cheapest BJ table in Pittsburgh nowadays anyway?
Quote: anonimussDefine "count cards".
2,3,4,5,6 +1:A,k,q,j,10 -1.
This question was mainly about taking insurance. I understand insurance is a sketchy topic these days, but if you go through the expert books, ie. people who call themselves experts, one of the main points in their different strategies is not to take insurance at all.
The second part of the question was insuring a specific hand, and later clarified that, this would be in a high positive count. The hand was an 11 and/or a 10 made up of an 8/3, or 9/2 or 8/2. Once again if you go through the experts systems, and strategy, a main theme is to always double on 11.
I also asked if there was any advantage to going against the common forms of not taking insurance on a hand which is common to double down on.
I came to a conclusion that ranks three hands and is dependent on the number of decks being used and the number of 8's and 9's you can see on the table.
For a 1-2 deck game:
Take insurance on 9/2 all the time regardless of any count
Take insurance on 8/3 only with a positive count of 2 or more
Take insurance on 8/2 only with a positive count of 4 or more
If you couldn't understand that the question was about taking insurance with a 10 or 11 against a Ace, I don't know of any other way of wording it to make it more friendly to those of us who have difficulty understanding word problems.
If three penguins are standing on their heads, how many pizzas does it take to drive to Albuquerque?Quote: wrobersonIf you couldn't understand that the question was about taking insurance with a 10 or 11 against a Ace, I don't know of any other way of wording it to make it more friendly to those of us who have difficulty understanding word problems.
Quote: wroberson2,3,4,5,6 +1:A,k,q,j,10 -1.
This question was mainly about taking insurance. I understand insurance is a sketchy topic these days, but if you go through the expert books, ie. people who call themselves experts, one of the main points in their different strategies is not to take insurance at all.
The second part of the question was insuring a specific hand, and later clarified that, this would be in a high positive count. The hand was an 11 and/or a 10 made up of an 8/3, or 9/2 or 8/2. Once again if you go through the experts systems, and strategy, a main theme is to always double on 11.
I also asked if there was any advantage to going against the common forms of not taking insurance on a hand which is common to double down on.
I came to a conclusion that ranks three hands and is dependent on the number of decks being used and the number of 8's and 9's you can see on the table.
For a 1-2 deck game:
Take insurance on 9/2 all the time regardless of any count
Take insurance on 8/3 only with a positive count of 2 or more
Take insurance on 8/2 only with a positive count of 4 or more
If you couldn't understand that the question was about taking insurance with a 10 or 11 against a Ace, I don't know of any other way of wording it to make it more friendly to those of us who have difficulty understanding word problems.
You should stay out of casinos. You have no clue what you're doing.
No, he should play in a lot of casinos. That would be a good thing.Quote: anonimussYou should stay out of casinos. You have no clue what you're doing.
For the casinos, yes, but also for the APs who need people like him to play in casinos.Quote: IbeatyouracesFor the casinos, not him.
Quote: wroberson
I came to a conclusion that ranks three hands and is dependent on the number of decks being used and the number of 8's and 9's you can see on the table.
For a 1-2 deck game:
Take insurance on 9/2 all the time regardless of any count
Take insurance on 8/3 only with a positive count of 2 or more
Take insurance on 8/2 only with a positive count of 4 or more
I am so confused.
Why do you think that the number of 8's and 9's have anything to do with the insurance bet? The insurance bet is a bet that the dealer's hole card is a 10-value card. Are you trying to make some strange risk-averse index play here?
Anyway, clearly, you are doing something wrong.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't think that this is an uncommon occurrence, but, I still found it hilarious.
I was playing at the black-chip DD game at MGM grand a while ago. This girl is sitting there playing 2 hands, for $100 each. She gets a bad hand and a good hand (something like a 16, and a 20). The dealer shows an ace and asks for insurance. She puts out 2 green, which the dealer moved to be in the middle of her 2 hands (on the insurance arc). She then very emphatically points to her good hand and says "I'm insuring this one", making sure that the dealer knows which one she wants insurance on. She said it a couple of times, waiting for the dealer to confirm that she understood. Wouldn't want the dealer to screw up and accidentally insure the bad hand instead of the good one!
It took every ounce of self-control I had not to turn around and ask her "what's the difference?" I even kept a straight face.
Not as bad as when I was playing in a 2:1 promotion. The person sitting next to me takes even money on his BJ instead of insuring his 16.
Quote: mipletNot as bad as when I was playing in a 2:1 promotion. The person sitting next to me takes even money on his BJ instead of insuring his 16.
LOL! That is hilarious.
I keep hearing these legends of 2:1 promotions, but I've never stumbled across one. Do they still exist?
Quote: wroberson2,3,4,5,6 +1:A,k,q,j,10 -1.
This question was mainly about taking insurance. I understand insurance is a sketchy topic these days, but if you go through the expert books, ie. people who call themselves experts, one of the main points in their different strategies is not to take insurance at all.
The second part of the question was insuring a specific hand, and later clarified that, this would be in a high positive count. The hand was an 11 and/or a 10 made up of an 8/3, or 9/2 or 8/2. Once again if you go through the experts systems, and strategy, a main theme is to always double on 11.
I also asked if there was any advantage to going against the common forms of not taking insurance on a hand which is common to double down on.
I came to a conclusion that ranks three hands and is dependent on the number of decks being used and the number of 8's and 9's you can see on the table.
For a 1-2 deck game:
Take insurance on 9/2 all the time regardless of any count
Take insurance on 8/3 only with a positive count of 2 or more
Take insurance on 8/2 only with a positive count of 4 or more
If you couldn't understand that the question was about taking insurance with a 10 or 11 against a Ace, I don't know of any other way of wording it to make it more friendly to those of us who have difficulty understanding word problems.
wroberson, in case you're not getting the picture from the other posters....
You should play insurance according to the count. The cards in your hand contribute to the count, yes, but the cards in your hand don't change the index number for taking insurance.
If, after counting the cards in your hand, the count calls for betting insurance, then bet insurance, whether you have a 9-2 or a 10-6 or a blackjack (take even money). If it doesn't, don't. That's all there is to it. There's no magic interaction between the act of doubling down and taking insurance.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI am so confused.
Why do you think that the number of 8's and 9's have anything to do with the insurance bet? The insurance bet is a bet that the dealer's hole card is a 10-value card. Are you trying to make some strange risk-averse index play here?
Anyway, clearly, you are doing something wrong.
Assuming first hand played.
The 8's and nines are cards that turn the dealer's ACE to 19 and 20 upon the reveal. That is the only relevance they have to the hand. If I have a 9, in a 2 deck game, that only leaves 7 for the house. I know it doesn't mean the dealer won't have one of the other 9's, but it lowers the odds that the house will have a 9 and leave the hand at a push. If we go deeper into the deck after seeing 3-4 hands, then I may have seen more eights and 9's, and know whether or not there is a higher chance of the house flipping a 5 or a 6. It's not that hard to remember the cards seen when you're only seeing 5-6 hands per shuffle.
If I can remember which of the 20 hotel carpets were part of the MC questions, remembering how many cards are played when a situation comes of is'nt that difficult. I still read on here that people estimate the number of cards played to get there TC when in reality, they should know this number based on the number of hands played. There is a base number of cards dealt for each hand at the table and adding the additional cards played is 1st grade math. Is also a 5th grade memory problem.
Casinos around the country have 100's of hours of me playing blackjack. They are aware of how good I've been playing the game. There is no way I can or care to prove to anyone here that I have the skills required to play the game and win most of the time. 70-75% of the time, they have me walking up to the cage and walking out with money I have won, so you can stop with the insults about me not knowing what I am doing. It proves nothing in either direction winning or losing. All these sarcastic comments do is make you look bad.
If you don't get ahead, you can't win, and that's where most of my losses take place. Just ask eye in the sky.
Aces...
I don't try to understand what some of the members say, or the point they are trying to make. Most of the time, the point they are trying to prove or make is that I have no idea what I am doing, and it's based on what I post, not on actual knowledge of how well I play the game.
Quote: wrobersonAces...
I don't try to understand what some of the members say, or the point they are trying to make. Most of the time, the point they are trying to prove or make is that I have no idea what I am doing, and it's based on what I post, not on actual knowledge of how well I play the game.
They say that because your posts indicate a fundamental misunderstanding of how the game of blackjack works.
Taking insurance is a side bet predicated on whether there is a 10 in the hole. That's it. Now if you're using a normal counting system, that system will have a trigger count for which it is advantageous to take insurance. Whether or not the dealer makes a good hand AFTER the insurance bet has resolved has nothing to do with the insurance bet. You should play your hand against the ace up according to basic strategy, or possibly based on deviations for index numbers. For BS, this means you would never double a 10 against an ace. You would double an 11 against an ace in a DD game or any H17 game.
Either you are really bad at blackjack and overthink the strategy, trying to add your own "improvements" that are actually going to make your play worse, or you are really bad at communicating. I'm not going to say you don't know what you're doing or that you're a losing player, because I don't know you or your results. But your posts just make no sense when compared to the sum total of mathematically proven writings and strategy about the game of blackjack.
Now if you have a super-human memory and can remember the exact number of cards played from the shoe, then use that skill to keep a side count of aces.
Quote: wrobersonAssuming first hand played.
The 8's and nines are cards that turn the dealer's ACE to 19 and 20 upon the reveal. That is the only relevance they have to the hand. If I have a 9, in a 2 deck game, that only leaves 7 for the house. I know it doesn't mean the dealer won't have one of the other 9's, but it lowers the odds that the house will have a 9 and leave the hand at a push. If we go deeper into the deck after seeing 3-4 hands, then I may have seen more eights and 9's, and know whether or not there is a higher chance of the house flipping a 5 or a 6. It's not that hard to remember the cards seen when you're only seeing 5-6 hands per shuffle.
What does any of this have to do with insurance?
Dealer: "You want to bet that my hole card is a 10? I'll give you 2-1 odds"
You: "No, there aren't enough 8's and 9's left"
Huh?
In sports betting guys like the OP are referred to as squares. And just like squares are a necessary entity for sharp bettors because they keep bookies in business, guys like Wroberson being in existence are ultimately good for AP players
Quote: wrobersonTo those who can't understand my posts, that's not my fault. You can't go around blaming other people for your lack of understanding.
Some dogs are named Talmadge.
Take insurance when the ratio of 10s in the deck is greater than 2 to 1, the amount an insurance bet pays.
Single deck examples: (1) playing heads up, first deal after a shuffle, never take "insurance". If you hold no 10 value cards, facing dealers ace, 49 cards remain and 16 of them are 10s. 16/49 is less than 2 to 1.
Playing with a friend, first deal after a shuffle, if neither player has a 10 facing dealer's ace, 47 cards remain and 16 of them are 10s. 16/47 is greater than 2 to 1, so take "insurance".
Of course, it can be a difficult to know the exact number of 10s and cards remaining in the deck after several rounds. Counting can help a lot to know when to take "Insurance."
Quote: dwheatleySome dogs are named Talmadge.
+10
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't think that this is an uncommon occurrence, but, I still found it hilarious.
I was playing at the black-chip DD game at MGM grand a while ago. This girl is sitting there playing 2 hands, for $100 each. She gets a bad hand and a good hand (something like a 16, and a 20). The dealer shows an ace and asks for insurance. She puts out 2 green, which the dealer moved to be in the middle of her 2 hands (on the insurance arc). She then very emphatically points to her good hand and says "I'm insuring this one", making sure that the dealer knows which one she wants insurance on. She said it a couple of times, waiting for the dealer to confirm that she understood. Wouldn't want the dealer to screw up and accidentally insure the bad hand instead of the good one!
It took every ounce of self-control I had not to turn around and ask her "what's the difference?" I even kept a straight face.
I frequently only insure one hand for variance control, if one of my hands is a stiff and the other is not. Dealer's frequently ask me which hand I am insuring or point to the good hand and ask me if I am insuring that one. At first, I would ask them what the difference is or say I do not care. But it sort of became clear that they are not all idiots, that it is a matter of procedure that some adhere to a little too closely--they probably do not deal with the issue enough to realize they appear foolish. You have to tell them which one you want to insure. Maybe she was so ticked off about being asked stupid questions, she wanted to make it emphatically clear for the moron dealer that it made a huge difference on what hand he placed her insurance wager on.
