Probability of dealer's blackjack on a new she
April 18th, 2010 at 6:03:47 PM
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I want to thank the Wizard, both for this site, and for wizardofodds.com. I have recommended wizardofodds.com to any blackjack player who will listen (for years now) !!!
As for my question, here goes: what is the probability of dealer blackjack on the first hand out of a 6 deck shoe? I have never much liked the first hand, and wonder if it is superstition, or statistics? I have always thought that it may be higher, in theory, than subsequent hands - if only because all high cards are in the shoe before the initial deal? thanks
As for my question, here goes: what is the probability of dealer blackjack on the first hand out of a 6 deck shoe? I have never much liked the first hand, and wonder if it is superstition, or statistics? I have always thought that it may be higher, in theory, than subsequent hands - if only because all high cards are in the shoe before the initial deal? thanks
April 19th, 2010 at 6:06:05 AM
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By my calculation, the probability of the dealer getting blackjack on any hand is about 1 in 21. It makes no difference if it is the first hand or the last hand in the shoe, or somewhere in the middle. The only situation in which you could modify this probability is if you were monitoring the cards which had already been played from the shoe, and knew that an exceptionally high or low number of high cards had already been expended (i.e., card counting).
Furthermore, the likelihood of the dealer getting blackjack on any particular hand is identical to the likelihood that you, the player, will get blackjack. So, if you determine that the likelihood of dealer blackjack is particularly high at any time, that is a hand you'd really want to participate in and/or increase your bet. Because you get paid 3-2 for a player blackjack, but only lose your original bet for a dealer blackjack.
Furthermore, the likelihood of the dealer getting blackjack on any particular hand is identical to the likelihood that you, the player, will get blackjack. So, if you determine that the likelihood of dealer blackjack is particularly high at any time, that is a hand you'd really want to participate in and/or increase your bet. Because you get paid 3-2 for a player blackjack, but only lose your original bet for a dealer blackjack.
