Do Counters Alter I-18 Plays Too Quickly?

This weekend I watched a few card counters. For whatever reason, they tended to make the I-18, F-4 changes to their play at TC's below (sometimes well below) the Wiz's recommended levels: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/

1. Are the TC levels chosen by the Wiz conservative figures or were those guys just jumping the mark?

2. Under Early Surrender vs 10's, is there a TC that dictates Surrendering 13 vs 10?

3. What bet sizes do you use at each TC? (Let's assume a 25 times increase between min bet and max bet and leave aside questions of bankroll and heat; if your answer is max bet whenever there's even a hair over 100% return, then re-introduce bankroll; I'd like to know how people actually do this in the real world).

4. At what TC level does the EV cross into profit without the player altering any plays from perfect basic strategy (let's assume a typical 0.5% House Edge)? How about vs 0.3% HE?

Thanks for your time.

Either:
1) Your evaluation of TC was incorrect,
or
2) They were wannabes with 1 hour of training, not counters.


Bet sizes depend on the spread. The optimum is roughly proportional to TC squared; practical use is closer to linear.
Any I-18 alterations are by far secondary to bet size adjustment. They matter little.

Quote: P90

Either:
1) Your evaluation of TC was incorrect,
or
2) They were wannabes with 1 hour of training, not counters.

We had 3 guys watching, none playing and none at the actual table, so we knew the exact TC (down to the hundredths place) heading into each hand.

Quote:

The optimum is roughly proportional to TC squared; practical use is closer to linear.
Any I-18 alterations are by far secondary to bet size adjustment. They matter little.

Thanks very much for that rule of thumb. I'll look into whether our bankroll could survive the TC squared approach if we're initially unlucky.

Quote: hmmm23

This weekend I watched a few card counters. For whatever reason, they tended to make the I-18, F-4 changes to their play at TC's below (sometimes well below) the Wiz's recommended levels: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/

Maybe they aren't familiar with the Wiz's recommendations. How do you know they were card counters, were they wearing team t-shirts?

Quote: hmmm23

We had 3 guys watching, none playing and none at the actual table, so we knew the exact TC (down to the hundredths place) heading into each hand.

Unless all of you are experts with 100's of hours of actual (read: in the casino) counting experience, I wouldn't be that confident in your numbers.

Quote: hmmm23

We had 3 guys watching, none playing and none at the actual table, so we knew the exact TC (down to the hundredths place) heading into each hand.

There is more than one count. Their plays may have been flawless ("down to the hundredth place," so to speak) for the count they were actually using.