question: blatant counter not getting backed off

Theoretical question: Let's say there is an advantage player at a casino, making no attempt to cover the fact that he's counting. At what spread, or maximum bet, do you think he would just get ignored without being backed off? Let's say it's a $10 minimum bet table, 6 Deck shoe. $10-$20 spread, do you think he'd ever get backed off? $10-$25? $10-$50?

Said counter would be welcome with open arms. With 6 deck games, even with decent rules, @ $10-20 and $10-$25 spreads he is playing a losing game unless he only playing positive counts. @ $10-$50 he might just be playing a break even game, especially if he exits some of the negative situations. At very best, with good rules and penetration, said counter is making a dollar or two with such a spread, ASSUMING he makes no mistakes.

At a 6 deck game it should take a bigger spread that that to draw any kind of attention. Casinos taking any kind of measures in such a situation are just not seeing the big picture and don't know what they are doing....which of course is still very possible. lol

Quote: kewlj

Casinos taking any kind of measures in such a situation are just not seeing the big picture

How do you define "big picture" ?

Let's say the counter is breaking even and won't make a penny in EV, he is still using the house's ressources. He's blocking a seat, and slows down the game. His play might attract other counters, and it won't be very likely that he would play any other game. Further, he might try to play more agressively.

Quote: MangoJ

How do you define "big picture" ?

Let's say the counter is breaking even and won't make a penny in EV, he is still using the house's ressources. He's blocking a seat, and slows down the game. His play might attract other counters, and it won't be very likely that he would play any other game. Further, he might try to play more agressively.

I disagree. Such a small spread indicates a lack of understanding what he is up against and most likely an inexperienced player. This translates into mistakes and most likely a lack of the discipline needed to play longterm winning blackjack. Lack of discipline could result in chasing losses, which could make this player attempting to AP more valuable to the casino that a basic strategy player, losing the .6% house edge.

In addition, in locations like Vegas during the week or other locations that are not crowded, such a player 'opening' a table is valuable to a casino. They used to pay people (shills) to do just that. lol

And finally, an inexperienced, newer player such as this post indicated, is likely not to be disciplined enough to play only plus EV situations. Even if by the best case scenario, he is breaking even playing BJ, he might just still be profitable to the casino in his attempts to play video poker, craps, or god forbid, slots. Also an inexperienced, casual player such as this posts indicates, probably is not the dedicated solo type player that has become so rare. He is probably at the casino with friends, girlfriend, wife, who is probably also adding to that casinos coffers.

So that is my meaning of the big picture. Good casino management should want to make darn sure this guy is really costing the casino money, and in this case he isn't. Some low level pit guy applying heat, backing off or barring such a player is really engaging in amateur hour.

Read this:
http://www.casinoenterprisemanagement.com/articles/may-2013/detecting-card-counters-knowing-and-using-detection-shortcut

Since I am mostly a player advocate, I hope that pit bosses gloss over that article a bit.

However, casinos do try to help the player sometimes. The guy next to me tonight at my local casino left a $100 ticket at the bar while trying to show his girlfriend or date (not sure which, but in Vegas I would have wondered if she was a hooker...lol) how to play video poker on the next machine over. Both the bartender and I weren't attentive enough to realize he left it there immediately, but later we thought we saw them walking around. The man also looked distressed from a distance while I was at the bar (probably realizing he lost the ticket, but forgot exactly where he lost it). They reviewed the tape to make sure, and the ticket was his. The bartender was joking (I hope) with me that I should have grabbed the ticket and that we should have split it...lol

Quote: kewlj

Said counter would be welcome with open arms. With 6 deck games, even with decent rules, @ $10-20 and $10-$25 spreads he is playing a losing game unless he only playing positive counts. @ $10-$50 he might just be playing a break even game, especially if he exits some of the negative situations.

1. Just to confirm, those somewhat depressing numbers are despite the fact we've assumed the counter's made correct play adjustments based on an accurate count?

2. Does that mean play adjustments, even properly applied, only impact the house edge by + 0.5%-ish or less?

3. I'm new to counting, but I've been reading that most counting systems, properly applied, provide an overall shift in the player's favor of about 1.5%. Is that a generally accepted number? If not, is it too high or too low?

4. If a player can gain 1.5% by counting, and adjustments to his play only account for 0.5%-ish of that (question #2), does that mean the additional 1% benefit is derived from bet size fluctuation and Insurance betting? Have I forgotten anything?

5. If yes, does anyone know the breakdown of that last 1% benefit between those two? Since jumping the 10's concentration from 30.8% to 33.3%'s not going to happen that often, I'd guess the advantage from bet size changes accounts for most of the + 1%, with Insurance bets making up a smaller proportion, but I've discovered a lot about this game that's counter-intuitive, so I've learned to be careful.

Thanks for your help.

Quote: hmmm23

1. Just to confirm, those somewhat depressing numbers are despite the fact we've assumed the counter's made correct play adjustments based on an accurate count?

2. Does that mean play adjustments, even properly applied, only impact the house edge by + 0.5%-ish or less?

3. I'm new to counting, but I've been reading that most counting systems, properly applied, provide an overall shift in the player's favor of about 1.5%. Is that a generally accepted number? If not, is it too high or too low?

4. If a player can gain 1.5% by counting, and adjustments to his play only account for 0.5%-ish of that (question #2), does that mean the additional 1% benefit is derived from bet size fluctuation and Insurance betting? Have I forgotten anything?

5. If yes, does anyone know the breakdown of that last 1% benefit between those two? Since jumping the 10's concentration from 30.8% to 33.3%'s not going to happen that often, I'd guess the advantage from bet size changes accounts for most of the + 1%, with Insurance bets making up a smaller proportion, but I've discovered a lot about this game that's counter-intuitive, so I've learned to be careful.

Thanks for your help.

Ok without knowing exactly what you are reading, I just want to say that many card counting blackjack books are a bit outdated, published in the 80's and 90's when less decks where in play and before dealer hit 17 rule was even known about. These things have added to the house advantage and it takes more effort and bet spread to overcome that initial house advantage. Days of a card counter playing with a 1.5 - 2% total advantage are all but gone. It takes a good deal of effort to play with a longterm advantage of 1% these days.

Now here is a key fact about counting. Most of the advantage you can get comes from bet variation. That's wagering more money on the few positive situations or positive counts. Play adjustment, even if you learn every strategy change play available, even the extreme index plays is only icing on the cake. It is supplemental, not the key component. Play adjustment is a bigger deal in single deck and even double deck play, but with shoe games, there is only marginal gain from such. This is why, many players only learn the 20 or so most important adjustments (Illustrious 18) and some don't even bother with adjustments at all, just depending on bet variation.

Now here is the problem with bet variation. In today's mediocre games, especially shoe games, the good, stronger advantage counts happen less frequently. In shoe games, strong positive counts occur mostly near the end of the shoe, just before the shuffle. In games with average penetration, these counts just don't happen often enough, so when they do, you have to really bet many times more than your smaller bets to overcome all those many hands played at a disadvantage.

So unfortunately, the bottom line is that as the industry switched to less favorable games, yes it does take a larger spread to gain any kind of appreciable advantage. And using such a larger spread, kind of exposes you as a counter.

One way to reduce the spread necessary is to wong out or not play at least some of the negative counts. This means there are less rounds played at negative counts to overcome and your wager on those few positive situations can be a little smaller and not quite so obvious. But wonging out, table-hopping and not playing some negative counts comes with it's own issues. Plus many players don't care for playing this way.

Quote: surrender88s

Theoretical question: Let's say there is an advantage player at a casino, making no attempt to cover the fact that he's counting.

What does that even mean? Like, he's moving his lips as he counts, or asking the dealer to slow down because he can't count that fast?

Quote: surrender88s

At what spread, or maximum bet, do you think he would just get ignored without being backed off? Let's say it's a $10 minimum bet table, 6 Deck shoe. $10-$20 spread, do you think he'd ever get backed off?

Nope

Quote: surrender88s

$10-$25?

Nope

Quote: surrender88s

$10-$50?

Nope.

You're not describing situations with action significant enough to get attention in the first place, at least in most places. If you do get any heat at those levels you're probably in quite a dump.

I played with a team of card counters the other day. It was hilarious. I set down at the table and there are two other guys setting there playing. They introduce themselves to me and we play a few hands. About a third of the deck in, their friend comes over and buys in for $2000. We are at a $5 minimum table and these two guys are playing red chip level. The "gorilla" player sits down but doesn't place a bet. He tells the dealer that he never plays the first half of a shoe!! It was so obvious!! The dealer just keeps dealing past him and when the count got to a tc of 3 (I was countin as well) gorilla places a $300 bet. He continues to bet green and black chip level till the count tanks and then he stops betting and tells the dealer he is going to wait till the next shoe to play. He sits there not playing at all just counting. Next shoe starts and the count goes way south. All three player quit betting. I'm the only one at the table placing a bet. All three guys are just watching me play waiting on the count to rise. Funny thing was even though the count was south I won every hand but one that they set out. When the rc gets back to zero gorilla states that he hates to see me playing alone and drops a red chip on the table. This guy has went from playing from 100 to 500 a hand down to 5 bucks! The count never really got back up and he continued to bet red chip through the rest of the shoe.

Next shoe starts and the big player is setting out again. When the tc reaches +3 he lays his bet out again. One of the red choppers asked the gorilla "hey where are we at"? He takes three red chips and lays them out on the table and says is this where we are, and holds up three fingers! I about fell out of my chair. I couldn't keep a straight face. Gorilla shot him a real ugly look and he said " I just needed to make sure I was keeping up". I've never seen anything like this before. I did notice the pit boss watching our table and she did pick up the phone and talk to someone a couple of times. Don't know if it was concerning these guys or not but I would say it was. The idiot that was asking about the count was obviously rat holing red chips. He finally run out of chips and ask gorilla to borrow some. He had at least $100 of red chips in his pocket. They all also ordered drinks asked for them extra stiff but didn't drink them. The silliness finally started getting on my nerves and I had made it back to even so I pocketed my chips and left.

Quote: Mikey75

I played with a team of card counters the other day. It was hilarious. I set down at the table and there are two other guys setting there playing. They introduce themselves to me and we play a few hands. About a third of the deck in, their friend comes over and buys in for $2000. We are at a $5 minimum table and these two guys are playing red chip level. The "gorilla" player sits down but doesn't place a bet. He tells the dealer that he never plays the first half of a shoe!! It was so obvious!! The dealer just keeps dealing past him and when the count got to a tc of 3 (I was countin as well) gorilla places a $300 bet. He continues to bet green and black chip level till the count tanks and then he stops betting and tells the dealer he is going to wait till the next shoe to play. He sits there not playing at all just counting. Next shoe starts and the count goes way south. All three player quit betting. I'm the only one at the table placing a bet. All three guys are just watching me play waiting on the count to rise. Funny thing was even though the count was south I won every hand but one that they set out. When the rc gets back to zero gorilla states that he hates to see me playing alone and drops a red chip on the table. This guy has went from playing from 100 to 500 a hand down to 5 bucks! The count never really got back up and he continued to bet red chip through the rest of the shoe.

Next shoe starts and the big player is setting out again. When the tc reaches +3 he lays his bet out again. One of the red choppers asked the gorilla "hey where are we at"? He takes three red chips and lays them out on the table and says is this where we are, and holds up three fingers! I about fell out of my chair. I couldn't keep a straight face. Gorilla shot him a real ugly look and he said " I just needed to make sure I was keeping up". I've never seen anything like this before. I did notice the pit boss watching our table and she did pick up the phone and talk to someone a couple of times. Don't know if it was concerning these guys or not but I would say it was. The idiot that was asking about the count was obviously rat holing red chips. He finally run out of chips and ask gorilla to borrow some. He had at least $100 of red chips in his pocket. They all also ordered drinks asked for them extra stiff but didn't drink them. The silliness finally started getting on my nerves and I had made it back to even so I pocketed my chips and left.

Were these guys named Moe, Larry and Curley? Buying in for $2000 at a $5 table, discussing the count and betting $5 after making $300 bets are not things a counter would do. A gorilla who is called in would have chips already to avoid unwanted attention from buying in.

What was the table max, Mikey?

Hilarious story, thanks Mikey.

Quote: kewlj

Now here is a key fact about counting. Most of the advantage you can get comes from bet variation. That's wagering more money on the few positive situations or positive counts. Play adjustment, even if you learn every strategy change play available, even the extreme index plays is only icing on the cake. It is supplemental, not the key component. Play adjustment is a bigger deal in single deck and even double deck play, but with shoe games, there is only marginal gain from such. This is why, many players only learn the 20 or so most important adjustments (Illustrious 18) and some don't even bother with adjustments at all, just depending on bet variation.

Thanks for your excellent and thorough reply.

Since I'm a lot closer to mastering the count than to memorizing the I-18, I view the bet size thing as good news. If we assume a $10/$250 table, how much impact can bet size manipulation alone have vs. the house edge? Is it a full 1%? (I realize this leads to questions of bankroll and heat, but at this stage of my development, I'm just trying to learn the numbers).

If a person were to master a simple Hi/Lo count (I'm practicing as much as I can), at what true count levels would you recommend he raise his bets (let's use the $10/$250 table again)? If you don't mind my asking, what kind of bet scale do you use?

Quote:

One way to reduce the spread necessary is to wong out or not play at least some of the negative counts.

Hmmm, I've seen "wonging" mentioned a few times before, but I've never had the guts to expose my ignorance and ask about it, so let me fix that now: Is that term derived from Sanford Wong, the author of that book the Wizard mentions a few times in his BJ appendices? If so, is that book better than the others? Do I need to read it? I mean, getting your name turned into a verb doesn't happen to just anybody.

Is wonging something that can be described in general terms or is it too complicated to understand without reading the book?

Thanks again for your help,
Chris

Chris, try reading older posts in the forum, reading other resources, reading books. I bought my blackjack books used from the internet, you can get books for about $5 each. You ask many questions, about all aspects of blackjack. Just take the time to do research, it'll be more efficient than asking the questions as they come to mind.

Wonging in is not betting and watching the cards come out and beginning to place bets when the count is good. Wonging out is ceasing to bet and walking when the count is bad.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Wonging is jumping into a positive count or jumping out of a negative one.

Also, add in play variations like the I-18 only once you have perfected everything else.

Thanks. Also, IMHO, the developing players on the old thread I bumped up today should've been more appreciative of the time you spent trying to help them learn the game. I would've been.

I do some recreational AP blackjack when in Vegas, and have never been backed off. I play $3 6deck or $5 double deck (or single deck when available). Spread is $3 - $50 and $5 - $50 (or more, if I have a good story to go with it: "my last hand of the day - make it $100!") respectively. So the action is pretty low, but I still beat the HE. I do mask my play though. When the count gets better I start "pressing" instead of going from 5 - 50 within one hand. Or, if I lose, I "chase my losses" by doubling my bet. Also, I tip, which goes a long way I think. I am chatty if the table allows it and will even forget the count over it.

Mind you, I don't do this to make money, I do it for fun and I lose the money back to Vegas in other gambling and tips, so it is actually clever for them to leave me alone. If it weren't for the lure of AP, I would probably still be strictly a poker player and not gamble at all...

On my last trip, I was alone at a table for 4 hours with basically the same dealer the whole time. (A replacement came only while he was on break, no rotating). He definitely knew I was counting, but didn't seem to care. Early in the session he announced "stand on 16" to the pit once, but after that kept quiet on BS changes. I was tipping him well enough for low limit BJ standards, and he was hustling for a $25 tip when I left (which he didn't get). Pit came over to chat occasionaly, too. Made about a hundred bucks.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Don't be fooled by this. They can and will still back off counters from blackjack even though they play and lose at other games.

It really depends on the manager's philosophy, which differs from casino to casino. Some will look at your entire play when deciding how to deal with you, and if you're dropping money on craps and slots and whatever, then they will let you have your fun at the blackjack table as long as you're not a threat to their bottom line overall. They generally err on the side of keeping people in the casino. Others don't want to deal with the risk of you "taking a shot" at them someday and figure they should get you out before that happens instead of after. And some take it personally and will back you off on principle.

Quote: Canyonero

Mind you, I don't do this to make money, I do it for fun and I lose the money back to Vegas in other gambling and tips, so it is actually clever for them to leave me alone.

I think that's where blackjack's going to end up for me, as well. There's easier ways to make a buck.

PS: Excellent screen name. It smells like a steak and seats 35, no? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELc_LNnof48

Quote: hmmm23

PS: Excellent screen name. It smells like a steak and seats 35, no? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELc_LNnof48

Exactly!

12 yards long, 2 lanes wide,
65 tons of American pride!

Hilarious stuff! If it was me, I would have quit playing, too, but I would have stayed and watched how all this played out.

I've been backed off and in my opinion it was borderline cheating.

1. Dealer misplaying hands and exposing dealer's down card.

After the first time I avoided playing with the dealer. When my winning streak hit 20 consecutive days, they must have thought I was up 1000's, they sent the same dealer to play at my table. Most of the night things were normal and I was steady even. When I got a good run of 3 or 4 winning hands and the cards improved I placed most of what I was ahead and drew a DD hand. James, the dealer passed by my hand and played the dealer's hand, and took my Ace. Pit boss came over and offered everyone a free doughnut. My winning streak ended 3 days later and the casino eventually burned and was sold and renamed. The new casino no longer offers hand dealt blackjack.

2. Customer Service Rep.

On the day my winning streak ended I was sitting at a table and was having a hard time. I may have gotten up $50, or 2 units. I have to add that I was under very bad situations here. The 3rd baseman was standing on all 16's. I was down less than half my stack and went all in when the count was very good. I nailed it with a 20 and the dealer had a hard one. The 3rd baseman drew a soft 16 and was asked everyone if he should stand. The dealer chimed in and said "you are going to hit that hand". He was very threatening and intimidating. Bam! Hard 16 and stand. Dealer got his card and won with 21.

I understand that customer service is important, but a dealer should not start playing other player's hand for them. I no longer play blackjack in Illinois. The only game I trust to be close to fair is baccarat and only when the deck has already been shuffled prior to me pulling into the parking lot. (maybe even before passing the last red light camera before the casino)and game play has begun. The only time I am in casinos in Illinois is to save my RC with Total Rewards at Harrah's.

I'm fuming over these 2 and would like to send another complaint to the Illinois Gaming Commission.