House Edge Questions

Let's say the house edge is 0.6% and I play 1000 hands (so 0.6% of 1000 hands is 6 hands).

1. Does that mean I could expect to go 494 - 506, a loss of 12 units; or does it mean I could expect to go 497 - 503, a loss of only 6 units?

2. Either way, what have we solved for, does it have a name? I suck at statistics.

3. Why does the fact there's a cut improve the house edge over each hand starting with a reshuffled shoe? Is it because the further into a shoe we go, the more chance the remaining composition of cards differs from the basic strategy on our strategy cards, and therefore the better chance those cards cause us to mis-play?

Thanks very much for your help.

1.Blackack pays 3:2 on naturals and also allows players to increase their bets via doubles and splits. Hence, you will lose more hands than the house edge would "imply," but when you win, you win more money than when you lose.

2. You can't even assume total win numbers from house edge. Imagine a game where you pick one ping pong ball out of 100, and if you get the right one it pays 99 to 1. The house edge on this is zero. You can't assume if you play 100 hands, you'll win 50 of them.

3. The cut card effect is extremely well known and there are a ton of articles about it. The simple reason is that you are more likely to reach the cut card later if good cards are gone, and more likely to play more hands when bad cards remain. When bad cards are gone, you're more likely to reach the cut card sooner, giving you less hands to play with good cards.

Thanks for the reply, Sodawater

1 - 2. Good point. I misapplied the House Edge to the total hands played when I should have applied it to the total money bet, correct?

OK, so to re-form my question: If the HE is 0.6%, and I play 1000 hands at $1 per hand, what would my expected losses be: $6, $12 or some other number?

3. When you say I'm more likely to reach the cut card "later" when good cards are gone, do you mean that more total hands have to be played before reaching the cut card because with lots of 10's coming out, hands can't take as many hits before they've either got a hand or bust?

Even so, wouldn't playing extra hands during that flurry of 10's coming out be a good thing, meaning you'd want to hit the cut card "later," not sooner?

The house edge is about money lost not hands lost. Over time you will lose more hands than you win, even if you count. In this case you will lose 60 cents for every $100 wagered. This assumes perfect basic strategy.

Quote: hmmm23

Thanks for the reply, Sodawater

1 - 2. Good point. I misapplied the House Edge to the total hands played when I should have applied it to the total money bet, correct?

OK, so to re-form my question: If the HE is 0.6%, and I play 1000 hands at $1 per hand, what would my expected losses be: $6, $12 or some other number?

3. When you say I'm more likely to reach the cut card "later" when good cards are gone, do you mean that more total hands have to be played before reaching the cut card because with lots of 10's coming out, hands can't take as many hits before they've either got a hand or bust?

Even so, wouldn't playing extra hands during that flurry of 10's coming out be a good thing, meaning you'd want to hit the cut card "later," not sooner?

1. $6

3. It's the effect of the cut card on the future, not the past. If you hit a lot of 10s and aces early, more cards are left before the cut card, and those cards are bad, and you will play them before the shuffle. If you hit a lot of low cards early, less cards are left before the cut card, and you won't be able to play those good cards before the shuffle. Playing without a cut card, where you play through the entire shoe before shuffling (no casinos do this) removes this effect. Similarly, reshuffling after every hand (like online casinos do) removes this cut card effect, and is favorable to the basic strategy player.

Thanks, 1BB. I corrected that mistake in my second post.

So, just to confirm: given a 0.6% house edge, if I played 1000 hands at $1 per hand, my expected losses would be $6, y?

Quote: hmmm23

Thanks, 1BB. I corrected that mistake in my second post.

So, just to confirm: given a 0.6% house edge, if I played 1000 hands at $1 per hand, my expected losses would be $6, y?

yes. published house edges for BJ already take into account the increased bets of splits and doubles.

you would lose $6 on average, whether you played 1000 $1 hands or 1 $1000 hand.

3. Boy, I just can not get my brain around the cut card thing, but I'll do some more thinking about it.

Thanks for your help.

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Quote: hmmm23

3. Boy, I just can not get my brain around the cut card thing, but I'll do some more thinking about it.

Thanks for your help.

Check out the charts at https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/10/

and the article at

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm