Martingale COVER for Hole Carding?

I need some help!

Long time blackjack player here, never learned to count but pretty strict to basic strategy. I really play the game just for fun, fully understanding I'm slowly losing to the casino long term, but for me it's a fair trade for the entertainment value.

The casino where I usually play is local to me and I do not want to be kicked out of it. They know me there and they know my usual playing style is flat bet table minimum until I get up a little, and then I usually use the gain in a Martingale progression until I hit the wall and tap out for the session.

Now it gets interesting: last week sitting at third base with one of my favorite dealers I noticed that as she drags the hole card out of the shoe, she kind of bumps it over the edge of the tray AND I CAN SEE WHAT IT IS!!!!

This is an opportunity for a lifetime for me, I think. Probably the one and only time in my life I'm going to have something like this. So I want to do it right, and make as much as possible until the gravy train runs out. I have read a little bit on Wizards pages about correct strategy for when you know the hole card and I'm prepared to make these weird plays within reason (probably won't hit anything over hard 17 but all the other stuff is doable).

I read also that proper betting in a situation like this is to just flat bet the table max, as many hands as you can, or otherwise just flat bet as much as you can afford. I have enough bankroll to play probably up to $400 unit bet. Maybe more.

Here is my question: if I change playing style, combined with changed bet pattern and I start to win a lot on this game it will look strange to the casino as compared to what they are used to seeing me do. That will possibly lead to them looking closer at what is happening, and correcting this dealer's mistake which will kill the golden goose fast for me. Obviously I don't want that.

Basically my question is, if I play this with my usual Martingale progression, say $25 $50 $100 $200 $400 $800 but still play optimum with the hole card information, am I still playing with an advantage? What would I expect to win in this case and how much am I damaging the advantage by not simply flat betting? Does this increase my risk and would more bankroll help?

I would ideally like to be able to just sit and play this game for hours and hours and hours on end, racking up huge wins and have the casino just chalk it up to one of their usual stupid regular customer Martingale gamblers getting temporarily lucky.

I do not want to try and just slowly milk it as I am afraid it won't last long.

I also don't want to do anything to make my play or the dealer's error stand out any more than necessary either, while still playing it as much as possible and as fast as I can.

Help!

So I understand this correctly: you have a good relationship with the casino, and they like you and treat you with respect. And you like them, and play for fun.

No, I won't help.

One small problem now with the ability to hole card you will be winning more often on your smallest bets you will not be getting to that $800 as often as you were . That will make your average bet size alot smaller. Maybe use your system starting a lot higher say $125- 250 -500 No matter what I would play 2 spots looks more normal having bigger bets on 2 spots. Possibility ask a trusted friend (ME)to do the max heavy betting. not drawing attention to you at all. it's probably worth more splitting then low rolling. Ask Dan WWYD

Quote: Garvin

I need some help!

Long time blackjack player here, never learned to count but pretty strict to basic strategy. I really play the game just for fun, fully understanding I'm slowly losing to the casino long term, but for me it's a fair trade for the entertainment value.

The casino where I usually play is local to me and I do not want to be kicked out of it. They know me there and they know my usual playing style is flat bet table minimum until I get up a little, and then I usually use the gain in a Martingale progression until I hit the wall and tap out for the session.

Now it gets interesting: last week sitting at third base with one of my favorite dealers I noticed that as she drags the hole card out of the shoe, she kind of bumps it over the edge of the tray AND I CAN SEE WHAT IT IS!!!!

This is an opportunity for a lifetime for me, I think. Probably the one and only time in my life I'm going to have something like this. So I want to do it right, and make as much as possible until the gravy train runs out. I have read a little bit on Wizards pages about correct strategy for when you know the hole card and I'm prepared to make these weird plays within reason (probably won't hit anything over hard 17 but all the other stuff is doable).

I read also that proper betting in a situation like this is to just flat bet the table max, as many hands as you can, or otherwise just flat bet as much as you can afford. I have enough bankroll to play probably up to $400 unit bet. Maybe more.

Here is my question: if I change playing style, combined with changed bet pattern and I start to win a lot on this game it will look strange to the casino as compared to what they are used to seeing me do. That will possibly lead to them looking closer at what is happening, and correcting this dealer's mistake which will kill the golden goose fast for me. Obviously I don't want that.

Basically my question is, if I play this with my usual Martingale progression, say $25 $50 $100 $200 $400 $800 but still play optimum with the hole card information, am I still playing with an advantage? What would I expect to win in this case and how much am I damaging the advantage by not simply flat betting? Does this increase my risk and would more bankroll help?

I would ideally like to be able to just sit and play this game for hours and hours and hours on end, racking up huge wins and have the casino just chalk it up to one of their usual stupid regular customer Martingale gamblers getting temporarily lucky.

I do not want to try and just slowly milk it as I am afraid it won't last long.

I also don't want to do anything to make my play or the dealer's error stand out any more than necessary either, while still playing it as much as possible and as fast as I can.

Help!

I think Pai Gow Dan will be able to help you with this situation.Hopefully he will chime in here.

deleted

If you really play optimally with the holecard info, you won't last an hour in the casino. They know you, and they've seen you play. If you radically change your hit/stand decisions, everyone will notice no matter what your bet is.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He will tell you to notify the dealer of her error so she can correct it.

Ya I know, I should have put my sarcasm face on.

Flat betting an amount equal to the AVERAGE of your progression bets yields the same result in the long run.

Assuming you do the full progression every time, your average in this Martingale would be 25 +50 +100 +200 +400 +800 / 6 = $262.50

Your average in reality would probably be less since you probably don't get to the $800 very often, for simplicity let's just assume it's about $200. Others here with better, more precise math skills and more software at their disposal can probably determine this more accurately, or correct me if I'm wrong.

So your question is, really, will you be able to play longer using the progression to mask your hole card knowledge versus flat betting MORE than $200, as you suggested, maybe flat betting $400.

Your advantage in playing this game is coming to you from the hole card knowledge, i.e. from the "weird plays" as you called them. THAT is what you must do to win, i.e. play as many of those weird plays, as much as you can, and "get while the gettin' is good".

That fact won't change at all, regardless of the amount of money you're betting each hand. Whether or not the casino bosses watching your play will be fooled enough by the Martingale bet pattern, to overlook the "weird playing" as the true reason for your winning, is an interesting question that I don't have an answer to.

If your edge is, say, 5% and you're flat betting $400 you're making $20 per hand. If you're betting the progression and your average bet works out to $200 per hand over time, you're making $10 per hand. Assuming the same number of hands per hour, therefore, doing the Martingale thing must enable you to keep playing this game TWICE AS LONG as it might otherwise last, versus flat betting $400, in order for your total win to ONLY be about EQUAL.

Would the pit be fooled enough for the game to last that much longer, TWICE as long, or more? OR would it be better for you to just get as MUCH money pushed out there as FAST as you can?

Only you can decide, based on how well you personally know these particular pit critters, and what you really expect from them.

-DBJT

search my posts, you will find a few pages on the same situation

By the way I should clarify what I wrote re: winning $10 per hand vs winning $20 per hand is actually not necessarily a bad thing.

If you're winning steadily but at a slower PACE, it might help keep the bosses from noticing as quickly. This, combined with the Martingale betting pattern smokescreen could very well result in the hole card game remaining untouched and playable for MUCH longer. If you flat bet $400 a hand but the game gets shut down in one day, versus doing the progression smokescreen and winning "only" $10 per hand, but the game lasts with the flashing dealer for a whole month, you're clearly going to win more in total.

In spite of your statement that you "don't want to slowly milk it" that is precisely what this strategy cover you're considering may do for you, and that's not necessarily a bad thing...

-DBJT

It might depend on how many more hands you expect to win with this advantage.

If you win more than 50%, then your average bet will be on the lower side... as you on double only on a loss.

With a 25-400 progression, your average bet size is $62.50 with a 50/50 game, and $56.30 with a 55/45 game, and $68.68 with a 45/55 game.

Even with a hole-carding edge of 10% you still don't win more than 50% of hands.

I know, hard to believe, but here it is: http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/entry.php?53-Won-Hands-when-Hole-Carding

You DO win MORE but it's still NOT more than half.

Blackjack is a tough game, LOL.

I've been playing it for 25+ years and the more I learn, the more that toughness becomes apparent, every year.

It's amazing how deceptively "simple and easy" the game can FEEL, especially to a new player who's won a little right out the gate.

Under-estimating just exactly how tough and brutal and vicious Lady Blackjack can be is never a good idea, LOL

-DBJT

P.S. It occurred to me that the progression betting pattern in this situation may be quite useful for shielding the player from scrutiny on INSURANCE decisions, which can be a dead giveaway to the pit that "something is up". Insurance is really valuable, worth like 2%, and having the hole card info you'll want to win as many insurance bets as you can, every time you KNOW there's a ten in the hole.

HOWEVER that's very dangerous -- if they see you winning insurance all the time but sometimes not taking insurance (when you know there's no ten) that observation alone could very well be a death blow to the game.

The idea here for using the progression to "protect" the insurance situation is to deliberately buy insurance when you know there's NO TEN in the hole but ONLY when you have a low bet out, like $25 at the beginning of the progression. And especially do this if the pit boss just happens to be watching that hand in play!! Losing $12.50 here on purpose, letting them see you "buy insurance WRONGLY" could be worth many thousands of dollars in extended play time on the hole card game.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He will tell you to notify the dealer of her error so she can correct it.

Better than telling people to cheat at promotions.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

The best time to do this when you know the dealer has a pat hand and you have it beat. For instance, under the ace is a 7 and you have 19. Also in these situations, insure for less and not the full amount.

Agreed, IBeatYourAces... that's an optimal situation to do it.

However if a pit boss happened to be watching the hand in the scenario I set up, with no ten in the hole and only a measly quarter bet on the felt, and ESPECIALLY if I had recently perceived ANY HEAT whatsoever on that game, personally I'd probably still just throw away the twelve bucks on purpose, LOL, even if I know my base bet is lost also.

It's cheap insurance (pun intended) :-)

-DBJT

Quote: DBJT

Even with a hole-carding edge of 10% you still don't win more than 50% of hands.

I know, hard to believe, but here it is: http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/entry.php?53-Won-Hands-when-Hole-Carding

You DO win MORE but it's still NOT more than half.

Yep, I should have known that.

I assume on the push hands you don't change bet size. I know the margin is in the blackjacks, doubles and splits. Even so, your average bet size when Martingaling will be well under the $100 mark, so it's not a good way to get close to the max bet size on the table.

Well it's true you win slightly less than 50% of hands when hole carding if you count pushes. But you would win more than 50% of hands resulting in a win/loss. All be it not a lot more than 50%.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What does a sloppy dealer have to do with cheating?

To provide an accurate moral framework illustrating that your position on the former might just be the one more worthy of derision than "lol he'll tell you to let the dealer know they're flashing"?

deleted

Another thing to consider is how consistent your play is dealer to dealer. If the pit or the camera notices you playing differently (and winning) with one dealer in particular, this could be a red flag for sure. Worst case scenerio they could assume you were colluding with the dealer, which is definitely cheating. If they realize what is actually going on they will still consider you as a "shot taker" and may scrutinize you more carefully because of it.

IMO you should milk it quietly and slowly and consistently as you can, unless you can quickly make enough money to never want to go back there again. If you want to increase your bet size, do it consistently with all dealers hope for the best while the gettin's good. Don't shoot the golden goose, even with a bb gun.