Wizard of Odds - Appendix 9

Wiz,

On the Woodds site, there are various appendices for long-term returns based on plays.

I might be wrong, or missing something, and apologies if this has been covered elsewhere (I have trawled through a fair amount of content though, and found nothing so far), but I was expecting the probability column in the tables to add up to 1, however the ones I've looked at add only to ~0.952.

In addition, I was expecting the expected rtn to be the probability x optimal decision, however (likely because the proby doesn't add to 1), I'm not getting this. Can you advise?

See:

for an example.

thanks,

Hay

The total probability doesn't add up to one because the player cannot hit, stand, double, etc. when the dealer has blackjack, which has a probability of 0.0474513 in an 8 deck game. So the probabilities in App. 9 should add up to ~0.9525

Quote: tringlomane

The total probability doesn't add up to one because the player cannot hit, stand, double, etc. when the dealer has blackjack, which has a probability of 0.0474513 in an 8 deck game.

This is absolutely correct.

I have been told by others that if the most correct play is made (with all of the possible hands) against an ace up-card the BJ Appendix 9 chart shows that a player is expected to win only one time out of three. That would always make the player a 33.33% underdog. Is this correct. Thank you.

Quote: bobluered

I have been told by others that if the most correct play is made (with all of the possible hands) against an ace up-card ..

Are you asking what the probability is after the dealer has checked for blackjack or before? Appendix 9 is calculated after the dealer has checked for blackjack and it is NOT a blackjack.

I saw in the info provided that it was after BJ check. Now my question......Does Appendiz 9 show that a player has, on average, only has one chance out of three to win?

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