Are we being cheated?
We have a player who either is on the extreeeeme side of variance or is cheating. I have looked for what I know to look for and found nothing.
Our game is manually shuffled, no hole card.
I have looked closely for false shuffles and marked cards, neither of which seem to be in play.
He is by far our largest player...and one of the top 5 in Bogota. He plays Blackjack. Our limits for him specifically are $500/hand, max 3 hands (always on a reserved table). His either wins $10,000-$15,000 or loses $40,000 and leaves. Unfortunately, he has not lost for a very long time. He of course often wins the money straight off the bat (there nothing appears odd to me). However, frequently, he is losing $20-$40,000, and in a couple shoes makes it back and ends up winning his $10-$15,000. This has probably happened an average of 1.5 times a week for the last two months.
If he is cheating, any suggestions on what else I should be looking for? Again, it is the massive comebacks after a couple hours of losing that appear strange to me. I have obviously tracked dealers and it does not occur consistently with anyone specific. That beings said, I can not discount that one or more dealers may be involved if he is cheating.
And yes, on casino security I am far from an expert. Fortunately, we rarely encounter problems as we are a very small place and our limits are very low to attract many professionals. (We originally granted him muuuch higher than our normal maxes because he is a longtime known loser in the gambling community. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean he hasn't learned some new tricks.)
I hope to get a video up of a couple of some standard amazing shoes in the next couple days.
I expect a fair amount of criticism, but hopefully some helpful suggestions as well.
Thanks,
Oscar
You could do the sort of things players here complain that casinos do when they are too lucky: less penetration, shuffle whenever he's won 'x' number of hands in a row, change the dealer often, change the cards often, etc.
Just curious, what are the rules/parameters of your game?
Good luck figuring out what's going on.
Quote: oscar33
If he is cheating, any suggestions on what else I should be looking for? r
Yeah, you should be looking at getting rid of him.
Whats the difference if he's cheating or not, is
he effecting the bottom line? Tell him to take a
hike and make him somebody else's problem.
Quote: EvenBobYeah, you should be looking at getting rid of him.
Whats the difference if he's cheating or not, is
he effecting the bottom line? Tell him to take a
hike and make him somebody else's problem.
You may be right and certainly appreciate the feedback. Problem is if is not cheating, he "should" be worth a lot of money to us. Unfortunately, key word is should.
Oscar
Quote: MonkeyMonkey
Just curious, what are the rules/parameters of your game?
Good luck figuring out what's going on.
Our rules are very player friendly. However, play here is just bad beyond belief. Avg. Vegas Strip Hold on a BJ table is about 10%. We do 20%.
Oscar
what you're observing is probably just a good run.
Quote: AhighI like to think you want to have a few winners to help you advertise that not everybody loses. But I have no idea about the real world of managing this type of thing.
Agreed. Problem is on an average night no one else is playing more than $125/hand. I would prefer he not be one of the few winners.
Oscar
Please supply-
1. Exact rules
2. Does he vary bets as a card counter would?
3. Does he 'wong out'?
4. How much is he ahead, and over what time period? meaning--- how many hands has he played at what average dollar amount to be up what?
5. Do you give him 'comps', and is that included in the amount he is up?
1. Exact game rules.
2. What jumps out to me is...single deck or shoe game...i.e...is he handling the cards?...if so cheating odds go up.
3. Bet spreads (maybe he has learned to count)
4. Has his betting pattern changed since his winning started.
5. If he "wongs out".. have one of your security people check the count at those times.
Just gut instinct here...but this guy sounds like a ploppy. He may just be on a lucky streak. The OP stated he is a known loser...even losers get hot sometimes. If you play long enough it's inevitable.
Look for patterns. Who does he come to the casino with? Who does he talk to? Does he use his cell phone? Have surveillance zoom in on it. Does he play other games? Change dealers often and see how he reacts. Bring in dealers he has never seen. What was his betting pattern before being restricted and what was his reaction to being limited to 3x$500? Why didn't he leave at that point? If he was cheating why lose first and have to make those massive comebacks? What were his lifetime wins or losses before the good run? What are his wins since the run began?
Do you share information with other casinos? Find out if he's playing exclusively at yours. If not ask if he's been winning elsewhere. If he's only playing at yours take another look at your dealers. You may have to endure his winning streak a little longer until you get to the bottom of this and I believe you will sooner rather than later. If you have to bring someone in from the outside do it.
Be thorough. If he's not cheating he will start losing again and you'll want him at your tables. You'll also want to think about lifting his bet restrictions. He may even be manageable if he's counting cards which you should easily be able to determine. His betting spread seems inadequate.
If you've already checked for colluding dealers, there's not too much else in the realm of cheating he can do if there's no hole card and he's not touching the cards. If you use a hand shuffle, he could be Ace-tracking.
Look for
a) change in bet sizes (suggests counting or shuffle tracking), or
b) deviations from basic strategy that frequently win (suggests the top card of the shoe is known, or your dealers are dealing seconds).
Quote: oscar33Again, it is the massive comebacks after a couple hours of losing that appear strange to me. I have obviously tracked dealers and it does not occur consistently with anyone specific. That beings said, I can not discount that one or more dealers may be involved if he is cheating.
Is this a face-down game -- does the player touch the cards?
When the player is making the comeback, is he making oddball plays that a basic strategy player would usually not make?
When your dealers shuffle (during these big comebacks) do they use a turn in the shuffling procedure?
Quote: oscar33Agreed. Problem is on an average night no one else is playing more than $125/hand. I would prefer he not be one of the few winners.
Oscar
I've been betting at max bet at several low end joints lately, but fortunately for them, I've not been winning! Hopefully I can be on someone's radar soon though. LOL.
I think it's more fun to take money from the low end casinos. Maybe he's losing somewhere else and making it back at your place and going to the other place to increase his bets. IE: maybe you just need to bump up his bet limits!
Unless the necessary info appears, we're all wasting time here.
Quote: aceofspadesI am rooting for this guy to continue his win streak
Hell yeah! How often is it the casino on here saying "why do we keep losing?!?!"
Let him win and turn his wins into advertisements somehow!
Quote: AhighHell yeah! How often is it the casino on here saying "why do we keep losing?!?!"
Let him win and turn his wins into advertisements somehow!
I hear he is looking for a girl with light colored short hairs.
It sounds to me like he's just set a stop gain; you can stay up for a while with a deep enough bankroll that way. You'll get it back sooner or later.
So - 1.5 times a week for two months - that's 12 times, for a net gain of about $150k? 300 units. So the real question is, what's his total volume? If he gets to be two standard deviations over par, you should probably boot him, otherwise, you're killing the goose of the golden eggs. Probably 300 units is nowhere near.
Quote: oscar33I hope to get a video up of a couple of some standard amazing shoes in the next couple days.
Big legitimate wins by the card counting stuff can't be anything but lucky. For the very infrequent gullible who tries that stuff in my town, the dealers are told to ignore his hand signals, and take the money when his hand loses. After a few hands of that, they give it up completely and leave.
For your staff, however, the way I think that they do it in Vegas is to show the tape to a security consultant like Bill Zender, or Richard Marcus. But don't let them string you along too much. It's a competitive business, a lot of bitter rivalry even over the internet.
Quote: LexingerFor the very infrequent gullible who tries that stuff in my town, the dealers are told to ignore his hand signals, and take the money when his hand loses. After a few hands of that, they give it up completely and leave.
And what town would that be?
If no you will be running off a player worth $200+ an hour to you.
Quote: LexingerBig legitimate wins by the card counting stuff can't be anything but lucky. For the very infrequent gullible who tries that stuff in my town, the dealers are told to ignore his hand signals, and take the money when his hand loses. After a few hands of that, they give it up completely and leave.
With all due respect, I'm reading this correctly - that you're having your dealers hold certain patrons to their first two cards - you should be arrested.
Quote: SOOPOONot enough information.
Please supply-
1. Exact rules
8 Decks
Hits on Soft 17
No Hole Card
Double after Split
Resplit to 4 Hands
No Resplit Aces
Hit Split Aces
Surrender Against Anything but Ace
Blackjack pays 3 to 2
Current Promotion: Player May Double on Any Number of Cards
2. Does he vary bets as a card counter would?
Absolutlely not. 85% of his hands are $500. 15% are $250. And that variation appears to be just "feeling."
3. Does he 'wong out'?
No, he plays at a reserved table and is always the only player at the table.
4. How much is he ahead, and over what time period? meaning--- how many hands has he played at what average dollar amount to be up what?
This is an estimation. Lets say he plays 6 hours a day/4 days a week. He is at a private table, but is also a very slow player, lets say he sees 150 hands/hr. Over the last 10 weeks, he is up approx. $125,000.
5. Do you give him 'comps', and is that included in the amount he is up?
Yes, we pay 10% of losses if he loses the previous day, which he uses as his first buyin.
This guy is 100% a ploppy. However, I know he socializes with employees outside of the Casino...and with what I consider(ed) incredible variance, I thought cheating was a definite possibility.
Oscar
Quote: dwheatleyIf he's betting up to $1500 a deal (3x$500), even a straight player is going to have swings like you described all the time. To me, the most important thing to check now is SOOPOO's #4, the number of hands and his recent win records. We can do a quick stat analysis to see if he is lucky, or more.
If you've already checked for colluding dealers, there's not too much else in the realm of cheating he can do if there's no hole card and he's not touching the cards. If you use a hand shuffle, he could be Ace-tracking.
Look for
a) change in bet sizes (suggests counting or shuffle tracking), or
b) deviations from basic strategy that frequently win (suggests the top card of the shoe is known, or your dealers are dealing seconds).
In his awesome runs, we bust a lot. But that is standard in an awesome run. He makes strange plays. IE, he will have 6 and stand, we have a 10 showing and a 4 follows, then another 10 and we pay. But he also makes this type of strange play and the 10 comes first, giving us 20. So...
Oscar
Quote: oscar33In his awesome runs, we bust a lot. But that is standard in an awesome run. He makes strange plays. IE, he will have 6 and stand, we have a 10 showing and a 4 follows, then another 10 and we pay. But he also makes this type of strange play and the 10 comes first, giving us 20. So...
Oscar
With your last posts about his play pattern (no real bet spread beyond 2 units) I would easily say he is not counting cards. Now about the "unusual plays". Really strange plays like a patron deviating away from basic strategy to the point where they won't hit a hand that is <10 either indicates that he is very superstitious OR he is getting hole-card information. When you are in surveillance, do you see the dealer using their thumb while bringing out their hole-card? If so, it is possible that they are lifting the corner of the card high enough for the patron to see it (or maybe even glancing at it themselves and passing that info to the player).
To be sure, make sure that your dealer is not exposing the hole card. After that and all the rest you described, it is highly unlikely that there is anything beyond variance going on. It just hurts more when you only have 1 player at those limits because you feel it more distinctly.
The game is no hole card,but even if it were you would not stand on a total of less 12.You would need more than hole card info to make that play.Quote: brianparkesWith your last posts about his play pattern (no real bet spread beyond 2 units) I would easily say he is not counting cards. Now about the "unusual plays". Really strange plays like a patron deviating away from basic strategy to the point where they won't hit a hand that is <10 either indicates that he is very superstitious OR he is getting hole-card information. When you are in surveillance, do you see the dealer using their thumb while bringing out their hole-card? If so, it is possible that they are lifting the corner of the card high enough for the patron to see it (or maybe even glancing at it themselves and passing that info to the player).
To be sure, make sure that your dealer is not exposing the hole card. After that and all the rest you described, it is highly unlikely that there is anything beyond variance going on. It just hurts more when you only have 1 player at those limits because you feel it more distinctly.
Quote: oscar33In his awesome runs, we bust a lot. But that is standard in an awesome run. He makes strange plays. IE, he will have 6 and stand, we have a 10 showing and a 4 follows, then another 10 and we pay. But he also makes this type of strange play and the 10 comes first, giving us 20. So...
Oscar
He will stand on a 6? Seriously?
This isn't him, but someone that plays perfect basic strategy for 36,000 hands at $500/hand will be up $125k or more roughly 5.38% of the time over 36k hands with these quite liberal rules. Kudos for offering them!
What's concerning is that he sounds like a major ploppy.
If he gives up 2% to the house on average (definitely possible), then the chances he will be up $125k at $500/hand over 36,000 hands only is a minuscule 1 in ~228,000. Not impossible, but I would definitely be watching for sure.
Quote: HunterhillThe game is no hole card,but even if it were you would not stand on a total of less 12.You would need more than hole card info to make that play.
My bad. I even saw that in the list of game rules and it didn't register with me. Thx for correcting my error.
Quote: tringlomaneHe will stand on a 6? Seriously?
This isn't him, but someone that plays perfect basic strategy for 36,000 hands at $500/hand will be up $125k or more roughly 5.38% of the time over 36k hands with these quite liberal rules. Kudos for offering them!
What's concerning is that he sounds like a major ploppy.
If he gives up 2% to the house on average (definitely possible), then the chances he will be up $125k at $500/hand over 36,000 hands only is a minuscule 1 in ~228,000. Not impossible, but I would definitely be watching for sure.
First, thanks for running the math. Definitely helps to see. And yes, not often, maybe once or twice a night. Usually when he is playing 3 hands and has decided to just hope (or knows) we bust.
He also very often surrenders 12 against a 10. He is bad.
Oscar
If someone could find that thread it would help, I can't seem to explain this well.
Quote: odiousgambitI don't believe you have said whether or not the player touches the cards, which can be pretty key for mysterious cheating wins. A recent thread, which I can't find, was about merely turning certain cards one way or the other. The card backs come from the manufacturer with a pattern that is cut in such a way that it can be determined which way the card was turned, and this is maintained after shuffle too.
If someone could find that thread it would help, I can't seem to explain this well.
I just read about Edge Sorting at Eliot Jacobson's website:
A.P. Heat!
Video explaining Edge Sorting:
Quote: MonkeyMonkeyAnd what town would that be?
I made the decision beforehand to leave that out. Not interested in conclusively proving anything to the world, especially not to a bunch of gamblers/gambling "enthusiasts". To say which town would be to give away which major casino, and so on. That I know is sufficient.
Quote: 24BingoWith all due respect, I'm reading this correctly - that you're having your dealers hold certain patrons to their first two cards - you should be arrested.
You'd think so, but regardless the degree of distastefulness, THEY don't arrest casinos. You'd be surprised at how the other players won't say something, or even appear at all surprised, at that stuff. In fact, the majority of the conditioned regulars become annoyed with the "gullibles" over time, nay, notice them ahead of the cameras, and whiningly point them.
Quote: EdgeLookerI just read about Edge Sorting at Eliot Jacobson's website
A few players became quite good at a similarly old technique called shading. Practise long enough, and with good eye sight you will begin to distinguish between the shades of the color on the back of the cards.
Improvements followed in the cards. But, doesn't Windows 64-bit allow for millions of variations in color?
Quote: LexingerI made the decision beforehand to leave that out. Not interested in conclusively proving anything to the world, especially not to a bunch of gamblers/gambling "enthusiasts". To say which town would be to give away which major casino, and so on. That I know is sufficient.
As long as you're also not interested in being believed, it's all good.
Solution: Use a non edge sortable deck and see him suddenly lose interest in playing and certainly suddenly lose his ability to win.
Quote: FleaStiffI'd vote for edge sorting... he is turning the critical cards so that he can tell that the next card out of the show will be Good or Bad by which of its two edges is visible.
Solution: Use a non edge sortable deck and see him suddenly lose interest in playing and certainly suddenly lose his ability to win.
Another fix is to simply turn some cards during shuffles, according to the Eliot Jacobson article.
Quote: RogerKintLet's not have a contest to see who can snitch on this sap first.
I feel like that Colonel in "Bridge Over the River Kwai" who realizes too late he has been helping the enemy. But now I can't fall on the plunger that blows it all up ! [g]
Quote: FleaStiffI'd vote for edge sorting...
I suppose that's a decent possibility.
Oscar, can you show us the back of one of your cards? That should either give credence to the edge sorting theory or sink it.
Oscar
Quote: FleaStiff
Solution: Use a non edge sortable deck and see him suddenly lose interest in playing and certainly suddenly lose his ability to win.
Better solution: during the first riffle: rotate one half of the deck.
Quote: MonkeyMonkeyAs long as you're also not interested in being believed, it's all good.
Hey, I'm not the guy who posted a picture of a plain, ordinary playing card.
