Odds of three blackjacks in a row?

I hit my favorite riverboat this weekend, and after a while was up a good bit so decided to play one last shoe. Playing heads-up against the dealer, my first three hands were blackjacks. I pushed on the fourth hand, and decided that was as good a time as any to color up.

Were I not so numerically challenged, I suspect I could find a table from the Wizard that would let me figure the odds of this happening. Failing that, what are the odds of hitting three blackjacks in a row in double deck, H17?

Also, is there any data out there on the odds of getting on a streak of winning hands? Odds to win two in a row, three, four, etc.?

The probability for hitting 3 naturals in a row in 2-deck game is 0.01091938530493739931408503954244% or once every 9158.024669647216796875 attempts.

Quote: ProfessorApe

Playing heads-up against the dealer, my first three hands were blackjacks.
I pushed on the fourth hand, and decided that was as good a time as any to color up.

Were I not so numerically challenged, I suspect I could find a table from the Wizard that would let me figure the odds of this happening.
Failing that, what are the odds of hitting three blackjacks in a row in double deck, H17?

I have not seen any streak tables by the Wizard. Qfit has some.

The other poster reply assumes the probability of a Blackjack remains constant and we know it does not.
But that does show it to be much more difficult than say 1 in 100 or even 1 in 1000.

The more cards the dealer draws without an Ace or a 10 the higher the probability of you getting 3 in a row naturals.
I say between 1 in 11,000 to 1 in 12,000 attempts would be a closer guess.
This could be simulated

Quote: ProfessorApe

Also, is there any data out there on the odds of getting on a streak of winning hands? Odds to win two in a row, three, four, etc.?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/2456-streaks-in-blackjack-some-actual-data/

hope this helps

So I can't count on this happening every time I sit at the table, huh ...

Thanks for the information. I knew it was a rare event, but was curious to know how rare.

The short answer is this:

Shit happens.



The long answer is this:

The odds of it happening, on the very next three hands, are mighty low.

The odds of it happening on your next visit are low. But not nearly as low as for the specific next three hands. How low depends on how long you sit at the table.

The odds of it happening at some point within your gambling career are mighty high. I dare say that it's likely to happen several times if you're a fairly regular player...

Quote: VPRookie

The probability for hitting 3 naturals in a row in 2-deck game is 0.01091938530493739931408503954244% or once every 9158.024669647216796875 attempts.

Ever hear of "sig figs"?

Quote: VPRookie

The probability for hitting 3 naturals in a row in 2-deck game is 0.01091938530493739931408503954244% or once every 9158.024669647216796875 attempts.

The above numbers are for a game where dealer shuffles after every hand (internet casino).

The probability for 3 BJs in a row from 1 pack (not 2) of 2 decks is 0.007322087038910805810625432793055%. This corresponds to 1 in 13657.308287730414746543778802199 attempts.

Quote: VPRookie

The above numbers are for a game where dealer shuffles after every hand (internet casino).

The probability for 3 BJs in a row from 1 pack (not 2) of 2 decks is 0.007322087038910805810625432793055%. This corresponds to 1 in 13657.308287730414746543778802199 attempts.

Great, only 13656 to go ...