Poll

17 votes (60.71%)
3 votes (10.71%)
8 votes (28.57%)

28 members have voted

weaselman
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 6:20:23 PM permalink
Quote: heather

There are at least two online casinos that have been running that exact promotion for a few years now. Must be working out okay for them, because they're still doing it.


The only ones I heard of with such promotions, were, I think, charging a commission either on bets or on winnings on those "zero-house-edge" games, effectively, no only negating the value of the promotion, but actually making it worse than the regular game. Ah, greed ...
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 7:12:35 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

Yeah ... I stand corrected. I was thinking about one player playing against casino, and still not having a very good shot at finishing ahead. On average over all the players, the casino will not be winning.



This is a remarkable post! A forum member made a post which was factually incorrect, then read a subsequent post, and changed his mind! Congrats, weaselman! It hurts my brain when someone says the casino will eventually make money on true even money bets.....
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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July 15th, 2012 at 7:16:58 PM permalink
Quote: heather

There are at least two online casinos that have been running that exact promotion for a few years now. Must be working out okay for them, because they're still doing it.



It might be working out for them for a few different possible reasons....
1. They cheat the players, and if they set the game to pay 99% no player would probably ever know........
2. They make money on deposit charges and withdrawal fees...
3. Although neither winning nor losing money on this game, players might wander to other games the online casino offers...
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:10:13 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit


Of those gamblers, 16787 busted. Only 1011 made a profit,



Take it to the end. Give the 1011 players another 100,000
spins. Then give those winners another 100K. Till there are
no winners left. Just for fun.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:29:08 PM permalink
It seems to me that because all bets in roulette
equal the even bets, the it would favor the house
for this reason. If you carry R/B, for instance, into
infinity, not only are they never equal, they become
farther apart as time goes on.

You'll find after 10m spins, R/B are thousands of
spins apart. After 20m spins, they are even farther
apart. And so on. And this would favor the player
with the largest BR, which is always the casino.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:40:12 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

It seems to me that because all bets in roulette
equal the even bets, the it would favor the house
for this reason. If you carry R/B, for instance, into
infinity, not only are they never equal, they become
farther apart as time goes on.

You'll find after 10m spins, R/B are thousands of
spins apart. After 20m spins, they are even farther
apart. And so on. And this would favor the player
with the largest BR, which is always the casino.



This is a mixture of true, misleading, and false. The R/B count at some time in the future will be equal, with probability ~1. The R/B difference follows a random walk. The largest magnitude of difference does increase over time, but there will be periods when they are very close or equal.

A casino will wipe out one player in an even game, but not all players. The other posters are correct.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:43:37 PM permalink
removed
silly

Sally
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EvenBob
EvenBob
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:45:40 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

The R/B count at some time in the future will be equal,



Nope, they won't. Statistically they will be closer, like
99.9997% instead of 99.9996%. But physically,
actually, they will continue to be farther apart. Forever. I'm
not making this up, do a sim. Its a fact.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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July 15th, 2012 at 8:50:00 PM permalink
How is it that a thread entitled "does counting work" with a poll, no less, has evolved into a theoretical discussion on even money roulette?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 15th, 2012 at 9:02:15 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Nope, they won't. Statistically they will be closer, like
99.9997% instead of 99.9996%. But physically,
actually, they will continue to be farther apart. Forever. I'm
not making this up, do a sim. Its a fact.

I agree with dwheatley

You need to go back to your random walk studies and read more on "Passage times"
(you are correct when p does not equal q)

"If p = q we get
(formula left out)
by Theorem 2.
Remark 3.
The symmetric random walk will therefore, with probability 1, return to 0. This
holds after each return, so that
P(Sn = 0 i.o.) = 1.

Although the walk will return to zero infinitely often,

the expected time between returns is infinite!
The law of large numbers can therefore not be interpreted as saying that the particle usually is close
to 0. In fact, the particle is rarely close to 0 and a large proportion of the time is spent far away
from 0, even in a symmetric random walk!"


Now, back to the topic of this thread.
I say, no, today, card counting does not work.
If a player thinks it does, they have just not played enough hands and are just on the positive side of variance.
If it was true, over 100 million players would be killing the casinos with their BJ play.
That is not happening.
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