Poll

17 votes (60.71%)
3 votes (10.71%)
8 votes (28.57%)

28 members have voted

Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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July 14th, 2012 at 10:45:09 AM permalink
Ibeatyouraces,

Card counting alone is a bit like pushing a car around in neutral and then hopping in to coast down the hills. Eventually, you're going to run into some very steep hills that you can push back up. If you're bankroll is only 20k then you could easily starve. Many people encounter some positive variance and then falsely believe that they have conquered the game.
weaselman
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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July 14th, 2012 at 12:01:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces


And it doesn't take a $20K bankroll to make $10-$15 an hour.


How much would you say it takes? I figure, you are, probably, playing around 50 hands per hour, with about 1% advantage. To make $15, your average bet needs to be about $30. The max would be, at least $200. I would think 100x max bet is a reasonable estimate for the total bankroll. You don't really want to be betting much more than 1% of your total funds, unless you don't really mind losing it all all that much.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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July 14th, 2012 at 4:08:46 PM permalink
In other words, by the time you tip you're left making very little while yelling, "Winner, winner, will someone please buy me a chicken dinner!"

(They changed the wording in the movie.)

Inevitably, they encounter a long losing run, and begin creating conspiracy claims about how the automated shuffle machines are somehow countering them.
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
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July 14th, 2012 at 5:18:52 PM permalink
I've counted since 2004 and turned a profit every year...not as a job mind you, as a hobby. Ironically, as I write this I realize I'm down for 2012 so far(but still time yet). You can grind out positive numbers, but it's just that, a grind. Trying to do it for a living is difficult to say the least. I enjoy casinos and all the ahem.....attributes.. that come with being a gambler. To me it's fun just to be there. I know to others it can seem like work. So short answer is: yes counting works. But it's not a magic formula to always win. Just from my experience, and carefully tracking my play, it goes about like this. For every 10 playing sessions I win 5 lose 4 and break even 1. Obviously, sometimes the 5 winning sessions come in a row and you feel like you'll never lose again.....till the 4 losers whap you in the head. Variance is a bitch. Be careful.
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
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July 14th, 2012 at 5:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

The pit bosses seem paranoid like it works. Whenever I bet high the dealer says "check". Is this surveillance?



Just saw this question. When a dealer calls check or "black action" it probably means nothing. They are just instructed to let the floor know when there is action at a certain level(usually black chips in a lower limit pit). However it depends a lot on where you play i.e. is it a low roller local joint that sweats green chips....or a major property? Also how you spread your bets and when matters a lot....are you going from a $10 bet to $200....or a more reasonable $25 to say $100-150...the bigger the spread the more likely you are to see heat.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 14th, 2012 at 7:02:34 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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July 14th, 2012 at 7:08:23 PM permalink
Too risky. Your edge simply isn't high enough to warrant 2%.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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July 14th, 2012 at 8:04:58 PM permalink
Has nothing to do with counting, but the dealer on Facebook Blackjack is now hitting a soft 17. WTF ??
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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July 14th, 2012 at 8:08:07 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Has anyone here successfully made money counting over the long term?

Yes, the casinos.
They make money on people who only think they can count. They make money on people who can and do count, they even make money on those who can and do count very well. Its a slim edge and requires luck anyway. Remember the MIT team went first to Foxwoods to practice ... and lost their shirts despite the same excellent counting skills that were later a success in Vegas. Lady Variance can still frown on Counters.
brianparkes
brianparkes
Joined: Feb 26, 2012
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July 14th, 2012 at 8:17:14 PM permalink
The way I approach it is that the casino offers games with (usually) low house edge advantages to the casino. They expect to win small amounts that accumulate over time. On the game of blackjack, there is an inherent weakness to the game (counting) which can result in the casino basically offering a game with -.05 to -.1% advantage to them for certain players that are able to count. This goes against their business model and they try to identify who is able to implement this skill and ask them to leave when they find them.
While there are some people in the industry that look down on counters (to put it politely) I consider it a game of cat and mouse and hold no animosity towards them. We're just trying to do the same thing (earn money) from opposite sides of the felt. Their job is to find the edge, my job is to protect the edge.

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