Reds | Pays | Prob | Return |
---|---|---|---|

7+ | 200 | 0.00000230011 | 0.00046002216 |

6 | 100 | 0.00006438572 | 0.00643857156 |

5 | 50 | 0.00115421980 | 0.05771099013 |

4 | 10 | 0.01220995252 | 0.12209952522 |

3 | 5 | 0.06849517726 | 0.34247588632 |

2 | 1 | 0.16710871362 | 0.16710871362 |

1 | -1 | 0.25096525097 | -0.25096525097 |

0 | -1 | 0.50000000000 | -0.50000000000 |

Total | 0 | 1.00000000000 | -0.05467154196 |

Lower right cell shows a house edge of 5.47%.

Quote:OzzyOsbournethanks wizard! I tip my hat to you good sir

You're welcome. May I ask where this bet may be found? I'd like to add it to my blackjack appendix 8. Now, go bring me the witch's broom.

http://www.lercasino.com/

20930 Malaga Road, Lake Elsinore, CA

(951) 674-5160

for the record i dont recommend ever going there for any reason

Quote:OzzyOsbournefor the record i dont recommend ever going there for any reason

That's pretty funny.

Quote:OzzyOsbourneeven when all players bust the dealer will still deal out his hand until 17-21 or busting because this bet exists.

Ozzy -

Assuming all players busted, does he still continue to play his hand if he has any black cards?

APs -

Out of curiosity, does seeing extra cards for free help or hurt card counters? Would your answer change if it was a shoe game rather than a CSM?

Quote:DJTeddyBearOzzy -

Assuming all players busted, does he still continue to play his hand if he has any black cards?

APs -

Out of curiosity, does seeing extra cards for free help or hurt card counters? Would your answer change if it was a shoe game rather than a CSM?

See!

Everyone hated my, "Two Off the Top," side bet for the very reason that there could be extra cards getting pulled out at the end of the hand, and look, this side bet already (potentially) does the same thing.

I'm going to answer your question to the best of my ability DJTeddyBear, and I am nowhere near the BJ level of many of our posters. I would say that free cards almost always help very early on in the shoe because (absent an extreme count) you're not going to be playing at an advantage early on in the shoe anyway, at least, not in terms of HE. I would say that whether or not free cards help late in the shoe is situational. If the free cards are low, then they always help. If the count is advantageous, and the free cards happen to be Tens/Aces, then that's probably going to irritate an AP. If the count is disadvantageous, but the draw pulls out a few low cards, then that is helpful.

I will say that some people will always be upset over the concept of having cards burned unrelated to the base game.

That's a given, for sure. I was just too lazy to mention it.Quote:Mission146I will say that some people will always be upset over the concept of having cards burned unrelated to the base game.

to complete the side bet. I mean what players want their first card to be an Ace anyway. LOL

Just because a side bet makes it into a rinky-dink casino doesn't mean it is the next bread slicing machine. I've seen much worse games and side bets to make the casino floor. In non-competitive environments, players will be on just about anything, and casinos will put in just about anything.

Quote:WizardJust because a side bet makes it into a rinky-dink casino doesn't mean it is the next bread slicing machine. I've seen much worse games and side bets to make the casino floor. In non-competitive environments, players will be on just about anything, and casinos will put in just about anything.

For the record this is a more competitive environment than you might think, the largest casino in the west is 20 minutes south of there. The one thing that reccomends Elsinore is that it is the rare California cardroom where you do not have to pay a 50 cent or $1 collection for each hand you play. While I will stop by for 3 or 4 hands of baccarat when I have to pay a commission, I don't get the Asian players that will play Pai Gow Poker of all games. You pay $1 a hand just to push half the hands? Come on!

Quote:bigfoot66keep in mind they also have a rule there that if the banker hand busts 8-8-8 then player busted hands do not lose.

Is this a player-banked casino? Usually such places have such a rule, because "21" games are illegal.

Regardless of that, I just added to my blackjack side bet page a couple table on Red Flex. I welcome all comments.

Capitol Casino (Sacramento, CA)

2 reds: 2

3 reds: 3

4 reds: 8

5 reds: 50

6 reds: 100

7 reds: 250

Phoenix Casino (Citrus Heights, CA)

2 reds: 2

3 reds: 3

4 reds: 8

5 reds: 50

6 reds: 100

7 reds: 200

8 reds: 299

Can anyone show how the payoff table is calculated? For zero or one reds it's easy to calculate the probability since you only have to consider the dealer's initial two cards. Then it gets more complex since you have to calculate the probability of the dealer having to take additional cards. I suppose the only practical way to do this is via simulation?

On another note, it was mentioned that this bet would be very countable. I haven't calculated it, but at first glance it seems it wouldn't be since the reds have to come consecutively for a win. So just knowing the remaining deck is rich in reds might not be good enough.

Thanks

Ace

Quote:AceInteresting side bet, I've never seen it.

Can anyone show how the payoff table is calculated? For zero or one reds it's easy to calculate the probability since you only have to consider the dealer's initial two cards. Then it gets more complex since you have to calculate the probability of the dealer having to take additional cards. I suppose the only practical way to do this is via simulation?

On another note, it was mentioned that this bet would be very countable. I haven't calculated it, but at first glance it seems it wouldn't be since the reds have to come consecutively for a win. So just knowing the remaining deck is rich in reds might not be good enough.

Thanks

Ace

Mr. Wizard shown the probability distribution in page one, and I'm sure it's done by simulation, because if without considering the need of hitting for another card, the chance of 3 red cards in a row in a single deck would simply be 26/52*25/51*24/50.

As for card counting the side bet, you don't have to worry about red come consecutively, just like card counters don't worry about 10s come at certain time for a 20. When there is a surplus of one type of card left in the shoe, the chance of them coming together increases, consecutively or not. As for the system goes, red card definitely would have a minus value and blacks have plus value, and lower reds should have higher minus value than higher reds.

btw it's fairly easy to work out all the permutations of hands that the dealer can have (I did it once to work out the Bust 22 bet, there are about 54k possible perms with s17). It goes from AAAAAAA, AAAAAA2 to 10+6+9, 10+6+10, 10+7, 10+8, 10+9, 10+10.

17 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 00 00 00 00 00 00

18 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 00 00 00 00 00 00

19 01 01 01 01 01 01 03 00 00 00 00 00 00

20 01 01 01 01 01 01 04 00 00 00 00 00 00

21 01 01 01 01 01 01 05 00 00 00 00 00 00

17 01 01 01 01 01 01 06 01 01 01 01 01 00

18 01 01 01 01 01 01 06 01 01 01 01 02 00

....

17 10 06 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

18 10 06 02 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

19 10 06 03 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

20 10 06 04 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

21 10 06 05 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

22 10 06 06 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

23 10 06 07 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

24 10 06 08 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

25 10 06 09 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

26 10 06 10 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

17 10 07 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

18 10 08 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

19 10 09 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

20 10 10 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Quote:DJTeddyBearAPs -

Out of curiosity, does seeing extra cards for free help or hurt card counters? Would your answer change if it was a shoe game rather than a CSM?

Quote:Mission146...I would say that free cards almost always help very early on in the shoe because (absent an extreme count) you're not going to be playing at an advantage early on in the shoe anyway, at least, not in terms of HE. I would say that whether or not free cards help late in the shoe is situation. If the free cards are low, then they always help. If the count is advantageous, and the free cards happen to be Tens/Aces, then that's probably going to irritate an AP. If the count is disadvantageous, but the draw pulls out a few low cards, then that is helpful.

I will say that some people will always be upset over the concept of having cards burned unrelated to the base game.

Semi-correct Mission. In terms of not betting early in a shoe, I must disagree. At a 6 deck game with "decent" rules (such as S17 and late surrender) the HE is .36%. I've seen many times the first hand come out +6 (not that it's an every time occurrence, but often enough to mention). In this scenario with TC +1, there's a player edge (albeit small) and could possibly bet more. Give 1 more round and you could most definitely be betting larger on the 3rd round of the shoe.

The part about seeing these extra cards being situational is correct. In generalities, because we don't know what cards are coming out next it's the same situation as players before/after you taking cards when they "shouldn't" (according to basic strategy). It's just as likely to 'help' as it is to 'hurt'. So DJT, in the long run of the game it simply doesn't matter. Thus, it doesn't affect card counting, in my opinion. Now this would definitely hurt Shuffle Trackers though ;).

http://miplet.net/blackjack/redflex.xlsb

Now to tackle some of the dealer bust type bets. I'll but them in the blackjack directory.

Excellent spreadsheet. In h17 column B, what was the algorithm you used to generate all 70,000 permutations the dealer can have?Quote:mipletAfter correcting many typos, brainos, and arrrrg I did something totally wrongos, I finally finished my spreadsheet.

/blackjack/redflex.xlsb

Now to tackle some of the dealer bust type bets. I'll but them in the blackjack directory.

Quote:AceExcellent spreadsheet. In h17 column B, what was the algorithm you used to generate all 70,000 permutations the dealer can have?

I wrote a program to create the h17 and s17 sheets. Its in PHP.

http://miplet.net/redflex/index.phps

There are better ways to do it, but it worked for me.

I assumed infinite deck, which is not much different from 8 decks or CSM.

The only tricky part is calculating how many cards the dealer will take, but it’s not that hard. I used a Markov chain and only went 7 iterations. There’s only about a 1 in 42,000 chance that more than 7 cards will be taken so I’m satisfied stopping there. The probability of the dealer taking exactly x cards in a H17 game is:

Cards......Probability

2.................0.33731

3.................0.44101

4.................0.17931

5.................0.03723

6.................0.00472

7.................0.00040

more.........0.00002

Total...........1.00000

It’s simple to calculate the probability of the dealer getting x consecutive reds in a row given the number of cards dealt. This is shown below (cards dealt on left axis, consecutive reds on top axis):

............0..............2..............3.............4..............5............6............7

2........0.7500 0.2500 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

3........0.7500 0.1250 0.1250 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

4........0.7500 0.1250 0.0625 0.0625 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

5........0.7500 0.1250 0.0625 0.0313 0.0313 0.0000 0.0000

6........0.7500 0.1250 0.0625 0.0313 0.0156 0.0156 0.0000

7........0.7500 0.1250 0.0625 0.0313 0.0156 0.0078 0.0078

Multiplying the first table by the second and summing each column you get the following:

...............0..................2..................3..................4...................5.................6..................7

2..........0.252982 0.084327 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

3..........0.330758 0.055126 0.055126 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

4..........0.134481 0.022413 0.011207 0.011207 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

5..........0.027926 0.004654 0.002327 0.001164 0.001164 0.000000 0.000000

6..........0.003539 0.000590 0.000295 0.000147 0.000074 0.000074 0.000000

7..........0.000297 0.000050 0.000025 0.000012 0.000006 0.000003 0.000003

Total..0.749982 0.167161 0.068980 0.012530 0.001243 0.000077 0.000003

Payout.....-1................1................5................10.................50...............100...............200

Return...-0.750.....0.167.......0.345..........0.125..........0.062...........0.008............0.001.......-0.042

So the return is shown as -4.2% for infinite deck.