Blackjack Bet Strategy

Bet 1 unit. Wait for TC +4. Bet 200 units, maybe more. Leave, win or lose. Repeat at next casino.

Whatcha think?

Quote: Wupper

Bet 1 unit. Wait for TC +4. Bet 200 units, maybe more. Leave, win or lose. Repeat at next casino.

Whatcha think?

I think you're right that you'd only get one shot at that in each casino:-)

I also think that a 200 bet spread is wider than the table limit spread at just about every casino. How many $5-$1000 tables have you come across? $5-$200 is common, $5-$500 definitely exists. I can't think of a $5-$1000 table that I've ever seen...

Quote: rdw4potus

I think you're right that you'd only get one shot at that in each casino:-)

I also think that a 200 bet spread is wider than the table limit spread at just about every casino. How many $5-$1000 tables have you come across? $5-$200 is common, $5-$500 definitely exists. I can't think of a $5-$1000 table that I've ever seen...

In Vegas many properties are owned by the same people, so once you have tried this at a couple casinos within one group they would likely stop you. Where are you going to get the large denomination chips without playing at another table first? I think it would be a red flag if someone bought in for over $1000 at a 3 dollar or 5 dollar table and started betting the table minimum. Also, if you just have a small stack of reds in front of you and then pull out a couple purple chips and bet them, the dealer is going to alert the floor person, saying "Purple Action" "Black Action" "checks play" or whatever they do at that joint. If this is on a low table min they may take a minute before giving approval for the hand, or make a phonecall. If you just want to make one large bet when the count is high and then go, why not just back count then join in when the count is high, I think that this would look less suspicious. Let's say you were able to get away with this at 5 casinos. Sure you had a 1% advantage, and according to the Wizard, it's not whether you win or lose, its whether you had a good bet", but the variance on these few large bets would be extreme. Interesting idea though.

Variance would kill you.

I agree with both WinMonkeySpit3 and DWheatley.

My tendency with such a small sample size (one hand) would be not only to look at an Expected Return of 51%...or slightly more...but also to look at the probability of winning one hand which still remains drastically lower than 50%. The purpose of card-counting is to essentially improve the expected value...swinging it over to the player's side...in the long run. In order to do this, you essentially want to play as many hands as you possibly can with an advantageous count. It's very unlikely that you would end up making a sustained profit playing like that.

I would imagine that the casino would probably let you make the bet if they actually knew you were going to make the one bet and then leave, win or lose. The reason for this is because you are only 43.31% to win a hand under normal circumstances. I very seriously doubt if any favorable count is going to bring your Win + Push probability above the dealer's Win + Push probability, so as the casino, I'd welcome you to make your one bet regardless of the count.

Of course, they don't know you're going to leave after only one bet, so as previously stated, you might feel some heat.

Quote: rdw4potus

I think you're right that you'd only get one shot at that in each casino:-)

I also think that a 200 bet spread is wider than the table limit spread at just about every casino. How many $5-$1000 tables have you come across? $5-$200 is common, $5-$500 definitely exists. I can't think of a $5-$1000 table that I've ever seen...

I think Horseshoe casinos bet spread is $5-5000. Of course, all their tables have high table maximums, with $10,000 famously on high limit bets.

Quote: Tiltpoul

... all their tables have high table minimums ....

Typo?

Quote: Mission146

The reason for this is because you are only 43.31% to win a hand under normal circumstances.

This is key. If you're willing to double down off of that 200x bet then OK, but just know if you're planning on limiting your splitting/doubling you will be increasing the very house edge you worked so hard to erode.

Also, as others have said, you're going to get away with this once at each parent property.

Quote: Doc

Quote: Tiltpoul

... all their tables have high table minimums ....

Typo?

Sorry I got two hours of sleep after going to Toledo to check out Hollywood last night. Edited in my post.

Quote: Wupper

Bet 1 unit. Wait for TC +4. Bet 200 units, maybe more. Leave, win or lose. Repeat at next casino.

Whatcha think?

Any gain you get from a 1-200 spread will be all but negated by a sub-optimal bet ramp (where are those TC3 bets, or even TC2?) and leaving in a highly-positive count. I've heard of new players leaving after making big, or max, bets, but that defeats the whole purpose of what you learned to count cards for! You're not there to get positive counts—you're there to play them.

As others noted, it's tough to find a game with a table max 200x the minimum. $25-$5000 aren't that tough to find, but betting $5000 out of the blue is pretty tough to pull off. If you can find a $5-$1000 table, you may have better luck, but most of these games are at places that will flip out the second you start betting purple (or even black, in some cases). You'd be better off just wonging in if you want to try and approach like this, or simply implementing an aggressive spread into short, anonymous sessions. The latter will generally bring less heat than the former.

All that said, don't let anyone tell you how well this will or won't work. It's good to listen to others' opinions, but there's a lot of bad information out there. Many people don't know what it's like to put out big, highly-conspicuous bets, so they can't really make a qualified assessment of how well it will work and what the consequences will be. The "this will only work one time in any casino" comments seem reasonable enough, but I personally disagree with them completely. I've also never tried betting 1-200 myself (although I shocked other APs with what they considered to be preposterous spreads at times), so take my opinion with a grain of salt as well.