cmlotito
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January 26th, 2019 at 8:31:35 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

congrats on hitting with high multipliers!
I would still play the bp version because of slightly higher return and mainly, less w2-g's. :)



I know I am headed for a boatload of w2gs this year if I play at the same pace the entire year. It's only the end of January and I'm on pace for twice as many as 2018. I'm sure at some point there will be a lull in the action for 1 reason or another. I'm going to try and limit myself to 1 trip a week whenever possible and may have to take at least 1 trip a month that would be freeplay collection only for that week. I don't want to spend an entire week next year inputting 400 w2gs into turbotax. I really don't.

I haven't seen the $2500 free play for 525k coin in promo yet this month. Maybe they stopped it. That would not be a bad thing in this circumstance.
cmlotito
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January 29th, 2019 at 4:21:20 PM permalink
Today, Tuesday January 29, was the Jackpot celebration for January. That means if you got a jackpot in December 2018 you will receive from $100 to $25,000 in free play by swiping you card at the kiosk and playing the virtual slot machine. I got $150. the best I have ever done since they went to this system in January 2018. Previously they had a really good offer. $100 bonus free play for EVERY jackpot hit the previous month. That ran from September 2017 thru Decemeber 2017. I was hammering the hell out of $5 single line DDB where every quad was a jackpot (99.99% return.) I went on a tear those months and hit 34 jackpots for an extra $3400 in free play. I then hit 70 jackpots in December 2017 and expected $7000 in free play in January 2018 and they changed it to just 1 $100 bonus no matter how many jackpots were hit previous month. Oh well.


So, on to today. I did not do well. Lots of missed opportunities. I started at 5:15am. I got my slot point multiplier at 6am. 6x! Big whoop. It's suppose to be from 5x to 19x. Its a 6 level pyramid you have to advance thru. I passed the first 2 levels this time and thought I would have gotten at least 7x but noooooooo I get a measly 6x. I'm more pissed about that than I am about losing. Warped priorities maybe. But If I advance to the 3rd level I think I should have gotten more than 1 extra multiplier. And they don't reveal what was behind the squares you don't choose so I don't even know what was possible on level 3.

Speaking of missed opportunities, would people be interested in me posting pictures of 4 card jackpots? By that I mean getting a high multiplier and 4 out of the 5 cards needed to cash in on it? I don't normally take pictures of those as it doesn't mean anything other than being a topic of conversation. What would be a minimum dollar amount? $30,000? $40,000? I've had some doozies this past year.

So, I did $142,023 coin in today playing 7.5 hours (5.5 hours playing 2 machines). 8 trip total for January is $752,892 = $94,111.50 per trip average. That will be my final average for January. 2 of those 8 trips I did no play other than collect free play. I think I did so much coin in because I didn't have jackpots slowing me down :(

Jackpot 37 January 29, 2019


Jackpot 38 January 29, 2019


Jackpot 39 January 29, 2019


Jackpot 40 January 29, 2019


I could have kept playing after the 4th jackpot but snow was coming as was rush hour traffic. I did not want to run out of money and leave during rush hour traffic with it snowing. The DC area has many drivers from parts of the world that have never driven in snow and since my Highlander drivers side door is being repaired I did not want to risk a rental car (I did not pay extra for insurance, that's a suckers bet, not like video poker :) ) If possible I do like to leave right after hitting a jackpot. Gives me that warm fuzzy feeling of knowing I got a nice chunk of money in my pocket, either as profit or I was able to grab some back from those greedy machines.

I did find out that I can get an accrual log for my jackpots. I just have to ask when I hit the first one in a day then all subsequent ones will be combined into 1 W2G. That will save a lot of time imputing them into Turbo Tax next year. I will definitely do this next time I go.

Oh and I think I earned an additional $243 in free play worth of slot points from the 6x multiplier. I will know the exact amount tomorrow when it hits my account.
100xOdds
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January 30th, 2019 at 11:56:20 AM permalink
congrats on all those aces with kicker!

i did $6k coin-in on single line .25 denom machine. (8hrs)
no baby quads with kicker.
and no quad aces. :(

lost $1100.
$1100/6000 = $18% loss = 82% return on a 101% return machine. (progressive Royal = $2500!!!)
and didnt get the royal either :(

(this was in another country. money amounts iis in USD)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
cmlotito
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January 30th, 2019 at 1:26:18 PM permalink
I earned $272 worth of points not $243. Not sure where the extra $29 came from. Not complaining though.

If either of those 4AWAK had a multiplier it would have been a much different day for me. Still looking for another royal with or without a multiplier.
tringlomane
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January 30th, 2019 at 9:03:25 PM permalink
As for showing some near misses, i would guess maybe $25k+. You probably get one of those every few sessions? Up to you. You're the one writing. :) But more hits than misses is appreciated. Hope you get a royal soon. Preferably with a multiplier!
loldongs
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January 30th, 2019 at 9:53:16 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

QQ Double Bonus - I played a lot of that at Southpoint last year at dollar level $60 a hand. Only played that high since I had the cash from the big hit. Usually I play that for quarters at $15 a hand. Didnt do well and wouldn't play at those stakes again without another big hit before hand. I would definately play for quarters though anytime.



they have two machines of QQ wheel poker with the good paytable (260 coins for reg quads) at southpoint for 7 coins per hand, 5 play max though -- this is my current favorite game in vegas

do they make QQ WP in ten play at all? that would be way fun, lol
GWAE
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January 31st, 2019 at 3:42:37 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

As for showing some near misses, i would guess maybe $25k+. You probably get one of those every few sessions? Up to you. You're the one writing. :) But more hits than misses is appreciated. Hope you get a royal soon. Preferably with a multiplier!


how many royal scares are you up to now?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
cmlotito
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January 31st, 2019 at 5:30:58 AM permalink
Quote: cmlotito


Here is my frame of reference for this experiment.

My weekly freeplay went from 70 in November and December to 175 in January. I can only assume it's because I had a huge jump in my coin in from August to October.

10 trips in August totaling $381,230
13 trips in September totaling $569,637
16 trips in October totaling $1,504,011
9 trips in November totaling $759,573
16 trips in December totaling$1,442,742

I sent an email to my host asking her if weekly freeplay is allotted by coin in per trip or per month. She has not responded yet but it's been less than a day. No idea if she would even tell me but no harm in asking.



***UPDATE***and ***CORRECTION***

My host did confirm that weekly free play is based on per trip average. No surprise there.

Here is a better list of the coin in per month divided by trips to get an average per trip for weekly free play.

$70 weekly free play in November 2018
$120 weekly free play in December 2018 (correction)***
$175 weekly free play in January 2019

July 2018 $156,922 / 6 trips = $26,154
August 2018 $381,230 / 10 trips = $38,123
September 2018 $569,637 / 13 trips = $43,919
October 2018 $1,504,011 / 16 trips = $94,001
November 2018 $759,574 / 9 trips = $84,397
December 2018 $1,442,742 / 16 trips = $90,171
January 2019 $752,892 / 8 trips = $94,112 (that includes the 1 trip I activated mystery free play but did not play at all)

So, if it uses a trailing 3 months to calculate weekly free play that would mean:

My $70 weekly in November would have used July thru September which averaged $38,199 per trip.
My $120 weekly in December would have used August thru October which averaged $62,945 per trip.
My $175 weekly in January would have used September thru November which averaged $74,558 per trip
My $??? weekly in February would have used October thru December which averaged $90,398 per trip

Hmm...maybe they don't use previous 3 months? Bump up from December to January was an 18.4% increase in coin in with an increase of 45.8% increase in free play. while the bump up from November to December was 64.8% increase in coin in with an increase of 71.4% increase in free play.

I do not know what my weekly free play for February is yet. Mailers have not been sent out. Neither me nor my friend have gotten ours yet. I will know by Monday February 4th at the latest as I will then be able to check online.


cmlotito
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February 6th, 2019 at 6:26:01 PM permalink
And the answer is $175 a week for February. And an additional offer at the bottom for vegas.
beachbumbabs
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February 6th, 2019 at 6:56:36 PM permalink
I'm genuinely surprised. That seems quite low.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
unJon
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February 6th, 2019 at 7:02:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm genuinely surprised. That seems quite low.

Last three months coin in per trip is $90k. I forget the RTP for the game he plays but thought it was less than half a percent house edge. Call it 0.4%. That’s a daily Theo of $360. They are offering $175 free play for the trip, or a shade under half his ADT.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
cmlotito
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February 6th, 2019 at 7:44:08 PM permalink
The weekly stayed the same but the freeplay and resort credits for Vegas are new. I guess that's the next step?

I'm going to play once or twice this week. Will try to get at least 100k coin in each time. I've passed over going several times in the past month because I felt I would not get enough coin in before needing to leave.

Should have an update or two by sunday.

Royal Watch: at 54,552 hands since last royal flush. That of course does not count Atlantic City where I figure it was at least 6000 hands played with no royal. Hard to calculate with multi strike.
tringlomane
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February 6th, 2019 at 7:51:44 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Last three months coin in per trip is $90k. I forget the RTP for the game he plays but thought it was less than half a percent house edge. Call it 0.4%. That’s a daily Theo of $360. They are offering $175 free play for the trip, or a shade under half his ADT.



It's 0.52%, fwiw. I think he's getting reasonable offers given the game played.

Quote: GWAE

how many royal scares are you up to now?



How many am I up to? That is something I don't reliably count, tbh. Ive had about 530 quads since Oct. 2013, so probably about 500 scares if I had to guess. 7 actual Royals and 30 straight flushes in that time frame. Running above average is nice for once!
FCBLComish
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February 7th, 2019 at 11:02:32 AM permalink
Quote: cmlotito


Royal Watch: at 54,552 hands since last royal flush. That of course does not count Atlantic City where I figure it was at least 6000 hands played with no royal. Hard to calculate with multi strike.



How do you count hands so specifically? Do you just know your hands per hour and multiply by time played, or do you calculate it using points earned?
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
gordonm888
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February 7th, 2019 at 11:34:50 AM permalink
Your taxes must be interesting. Enjoying your account and comments.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
tringlomane
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February 7th, 2019 at 12:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: FCBLComish

How do you count hands so specifically? Do you just know your hands per hour and multiply by time played, or do you calculate it using points earned?



Im guessing by points earned.

That's why didn't include hands on multi-strike. You play anywhere from 1 to 4 hands per round in that game.

Hope the drought ends soon! Hopefully with a multiplier!
cmlotito
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February 7th, 2019 at 7:11:20 PM permalink
Quote: FCBLComish

How do you count hands so specifically? Do you just know your hands per hour and multiply by time played, or do you calculate it using points earned?



It is based on coin in tracked on mlife website divided by cost per hand.
cmlotito
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February 8th, 2019 at 5:51:18 AM permalink
This update will be in two parts.

Currently I am at the auto body shop getting my driver's side door fixed from the damage in Atlantic City. Second time here as when the initial repair completed it looked perfect. However, while clearing snow off my car I noticed that running my hand over the area where the door meets the rear door it was not flush. Lower part was slightly above the plane and top part was slightly below the plane of rear foor.. The piece in question is being looked at as I type. Hopefully this will be resolved today. When I do part two later today I hope to have good news.

Alright, let me share the non gambling part of yesterday.

I get there at 5:45am. First thing I notice upon entering is a stanchion sign stating they will be testing the fire alarms from 5am to 2pm. Great! As I walk to high limit and sit down the testing begins or continues as it probably started before I got there but the first alarm I heard didnt sound until I sat down. For the next 4 or 5 hours alarms are going off sporadically as they test it. BUT, I swear (not that I timed it) at one point for AT LEAST 45 minutes the alarm was going off NON STOP! One of the slot attendants told me they had to visually check every flashing light in the building. I guess that was why this part was taking so long.

At the end of the 45 minute'ish marathon I jokingly shouted out "Noooooo, bring it back!" The attendant who was about 20 feet away looked at me thinking something bad had happened. I laughed said "I miss the alarm, bring it back." We both had a good laugh.

During the non deafening part of the day I kept hearing several guys in the other part of the high limit room. I wasn't paying too much attention to them other than thinking they were just having a good time. Then as they seemed to be leaving they walked by the 6 slot machines next to where I play and one of them sat down and appeared to want to play. One of his buddies now started berating him and saying "Dude! Your ahead! Don't give it all back!" This went on for about a minute with the man in question yelling back at his friend not to tell him what to do or something along those lines. I don't remember exactly what he said.

At this point I'm thinking the same thing as the guy trying to stop his friend from playing. "He's gonna give it all back."

Then I suddenly heard nothing coming from any of them and next thing I know the jackpot music started playing. I saw the guy who was trying to get his friend not to gamble stand there quietly in shocked silence with his mouth wide open.

The guy had gotten a 7 with two 2x multipliers. First pull playing one $10 coin and he wins $3,200!

The winner then starts berating his friend who had tried to stop him. Turn about is fair play as the saying goes.

My gambling part coming later today.
Last edited by: cmlotito on Feb 8, 2019
cmlotito
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February 8th, 2019 at 12:17:53 PM permalink
Car fixed. It's not 100% perfect, but it's close enough. Much better than it was.

February 7, 2019 was not a good day at all. I played for 9 hours and only got 4 jackpots. None of them over 4 figures. That says it all right there. Once again many close calls. Most were in the 8k to 16k range only needing 1 more card. At one point near the end I had 4 sets of dealt trips (A, 2, 2, 4's) all with 4x to 10x multipliers. You won't find the pics below as the 4th card never fell. However, I did have one 40k near miss:



Here is what I was able to convert on:

Jackpot 41 February 7, 2019 I got this on my fourth or fifth hand of the day. Yes, that means I played another 9 hours getting only 3 jackpots in that time.
$2,000


Jackpot 42 February 7, 2019 Picture looks a little different as I was trying the accrual log thing. I'll discuss this more below.
$1,275


Jackpot 43 February 7, 2019
$2,010


Jackpot 44 February 7, 2019 Another 4AWAK and no multiplier, sigh.
$2,030


The first 3 jackpots I hit on the left machine. How the accrual log works is after I hit the first jackpot I tell them I want a log started. They still give me a W2G for the first one. But starting with the second I am suppose to be able to put my pin number in and the jackpot downloads to the machine as credits and I keep on playing with no intervention from a slot attendant. Sounds great. No need to tip anyone (I always tip at least $5 and I know I tipped well over $1500, maybe close to $2,000, last year based on the 197 jackpots I had. $500 on 3 jackpots alone (240k-300, 30k-100, 20.025k-100) This could save me a nice chunk of change.

But the left machine was not working correctly. After entering my pin number the machine said an attendant was required and locked up. Once I was paid the machine would not recognize any players card for about half an hour. It would just say invalid card. It did that on the second and third jackpot. So, I did not play that machine for over an hour as I would not accumulate any points.

The fourth jackpot I hit on the right machine. You can watch it below.
https://youtu.be/S4vdp-pdtKo
This shows how the procedure is suppose to work. I did drop the f-bomb on accident so I am not sure if the video will get flagged for bad language. Is that even a possibility?

Post gambling analysis:

1. I think I am done playing two machines for a while. Even though playing one versus two machines has no bearing on chances of winning I think I would like to have more visits to a casino this year rather than burn out quickly if the losing continues. The only benefit of playing 2 machines is more deals per hour which ultimately gets me closer to my next dealt royal flush or dealt 4AWAK. Of course the flip side is burning thru bankroll faster. If I get some big 5 figure jackpot I will revisit this decision but for now one machine is the way to go.

2. Of course that means coin in per trip will go down. Only way to offset this would be only go when I intend to gamble. Will I get 100k coin in on a single day? Most likely no. But if I can get $175 free play a week on a 75k trip average I think that is doable. I just can't waste any trips on nonsense.

3. Definitely switch to playing on the right machine for accrual logs and non glitchy downloading of credits. This will save me money by not having to tip as often and time by not waiting on hand pays. Looking at 2018 jackpots I hit I estimate 115 of the jackpots I hit could have avoided hand pays by using the accrual log process. At a minimum of $5 per that is $575 saved.

Makes me wonder if that would have worked on the 240k jackpot. Could I have downloaded it and cashed it out onto a TITO then go to the cage to cash it? That would be interesting. Anyone know what the limit is on a TITO ticket to print at a machine? I know that when I played thru the 10k in free play a couple years ago the machine (a 100 play) started spitting out TITO's every time the win put the credits over $10,000. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a limit as to how large a jackpot can be downloaded to the machine versus requiring a hand pay. Hopefully I will gather some data on this soon.

Statistics:

Royal Watch - 25,164 deals (75,492 hands) since Royal Flush on January 8th, 2019.

Dealt Royal Watch (4 lifetime) - 27,935 deals (does not include at least 6,000 deals playing multi strike, and that is definitely a low estimate based on $203,866 coin in divided by $40 a hand for 5,096 hands, I also played some at $20 and $24 a hand)

Dealt 4AWAK Watch (3 lifetime)- 42,832 deals (last hand of 2018 was a dealt 4AWAK, does not include at least 6,000 deals playing multi strike, and that is definitely a low estimate based on $203,866 coin in divided by $40 a hand for 5,096 hands, I also played some at $20 and $24 a hand)

Coin in on February 7, 2019 - $146,580 for a 1 trip average in February of $146,580

Coin in for 2019 - $899,472 (MGMNH) + $203,866 (Borgata) = $1,103,338

Tier Credit Watch - 1,435,186 (2 million gets me an up or down vote on becoming Noir.....probably a down vote)
Last edited by: cmlotito on Feb 8, 2019
RS
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February 8th, 2019 at 1:57:30 PM permalink
They almost certainly have a limit for “downloading” the jackpot. Probably $50k.
cmlotito
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February 8th, 2019 at 2:07:38 PM permalink
Quote: RS

They almost certainly have a limit for “downloading” the jackpot. Probably $50k.



I will volunteer to do the heavy lifting and test those limits. :)
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2019 at 2:46:52 PM permalink
Cm, have you ever discussed your personal tax issues with winning so many jackpots and resultant W2 g's? It seems like you are in the ballpark of 'even' when it comes to your overall play. Do you end up paying taxes on phantom winnings?
cmlotito
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February 13th, 2019 at 4:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Cm, have you ever discussed your personal tax issues with winning so many jackpots and resultant W2 g's? It seems like you are in the ballpark of 'even' when it comes to your overall play. Do you end up paying taxes on phantom winnings?



I live in Virginia so I can claim losses against winning. I do not pay taxes on phantom winnings.

I'm only around even lifetime thanks to the 240k. Without that I would most definitely be playing for quarters in the $5 per hand range.

I'm slow on updating currently. I have gone twice since last update and have not fared well at all. Variance is having it's way with me at the moment.

Factoring out free play played and won I am far above and beyond the expected .52% loss rate.

I'm not stopping though. Just slowing down drastically. My current plan is to play just once a week at MGM. 1000 hands for 21k in action. I go on the day that would offer the most freeplay. I feel that would give me a chance at hitting something while limiting any further losses (factoring in freeplay) my weekly freeplay should not start dropping until April so I have 6 weeks or so to try it this way and see what happens.

I do plan on going 1 more time to borgata in Atlantic City for a rematch with the multi strike machines. That will be a full on gambling trip. No slowing down.

Every year I seem to need to adjust my play at some point. This year is no different.

Last year factoring out the 240k jackpot and every other non $1 DSTP gambling I did. I was ahead. So i know it's possible to come back from where i am now. I just have to play and see what happens.
100xOdds
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February 14th, 2019 at 8:17:13 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

I'm slow on updating currently. I have gone twice since last update and have not fared well at all. Variance is having it's way with me at the moment.

Factoring out free play played and won I am far above and beyond the expected .52% loss rate.

those 2 machines still sucking $$$ like a vacuum cleaner. :(

dstp 8/5 bp (99.67% return)
lost $600 quick!

I think I got like 80 points total.
1 point = $35 coin-in.
80*35 = $2800
600/2800 = 21% aka 79% return!!! :(

didn't get many multipliers.
didn't win much when I got them AND got a winning hand.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
cmlotito
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February 15th, 2019 at 5:46:00 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

those 2 machines still sucking $$$ like a vacuum cleaner. :(

dstp 8/5 bp (99.67% return)
lost $600 quick!

I think I got like 80 points total.
1 point = $35 coin-in.
80*35 = $2800
600/2800 = 21% aka 79% return!!! :(

didn't get many multipliers.
didn't win much when I got them AND got a winning hand.



I have gotten as little as 70 points on $1000 and more than 300 points on $1000. That's on DDB of course.
cmlotito
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February 15th, 2019 at 8:11:02 PM permalink
I went on February 9th and 11th 2019. Not much to say. No fire alarms. No gigolo. No funny stories. And unfortunately, no winning.

I got 5 jackpots on February 9th and 1 on February 11th:

Jackpot 45 February 9, 2019
$2,150


Jackpot 46 February 9, 2019
$2,400


Jackpot 47 February 9, 2019
$2,005


Jackpot 48 February 9, 2019
$2,010


Jackpot 49 February 9, 2019
$2,010


Jackpot 50 February 11, 2019
$2,400


Coin in on February 9 was $113,001

Coin in on February 11 was $111,048

3 trip total in February $370,629 for an average of $123,543

My next 2 trips in February will have limited play as I am saving for some heavy play in Atlantic City in March. Hopefully I start lining up some multipliers on all the 4 aces I seem to get.

Royal Watch - 35,833 deals (107,499 hands) since Royal Flush on January 8th, 2019.

Dealt Royal Watch (4 lifetime) - 38,604 deals (does not include at least 6,000 deals playing multi strike, and that is definitely a low estimate based on $203,866 coin in divided by $40 a hand for 5,096 hands, I also played some at $20 and $24 a hand)

Dealt 4AWAK Watch (3 lifetime)- 53,501 deals (last hand of 2018 was a dealt 4AWAK, does not include at least 6,000 deals playing multi strike, and that is definitely a low estimate based on $203,866 coin in divided by $40 a hand for 5,096 hands, I also played some at $20 and $24 a hand)
cmlotito
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February 15th, 2019 at 8:18:23 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito


Onto the gas station. This station, located on a corner so it has 2 entrances and 2 exits, is the cheapest gas in the area by far. Usually 15-30 cents a gallon cheaper than anyone else. Of course that means lines up the wazoo. So, I usually get gas after midnight on my way home from work. Well, 6:45am and only 3 other cars for 14 pumps. Not crowded at all. I pull in and notice something new. There are signs posted on the pumps of an arrow with "traffic" printed in the middle indicating traffic should go in a certain direction, not the way I was facing of course. I get out of the car and notice what looks like a metal chain link fence has been erected in the middle of the station. This fence would prevent me from leaving the way I came in so I knew I would need to cut thru the McDonald's parking lot to get back on the road in the direction I wanted to go. I put my credit card into the pump and while it says authorizing the pump shuts off and says "please see clerk for assistance." Another customer next to me says that the attendant probably shut the pump off on me because I am facing the wrong way and the same thing happened to him the last time he was here.

So, I walked over to the attendant who was in his glass cage. I shrugged my shoulders and asked what was going on. His response was to walk over to a sign posted on the glass window that had an arrow pointing in the opposite direction and tap on it. So, I told him, in a not so pleasant voice, to go fornicate himself and I would never come here again. On my way back to the car the other customer politely reminded me it was the cheapest gas in the area and I said it was a matter of principle now and would never come here again.



So, I drove by the gas station tonight and saw that the fence was down and replaced by spikes.

Yes,

I said

SPIKES!


At this point I do not know why anyone would patronize a business that could cost you hundreds of dollars in damage to your car.
100xOdds
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February 17th, 2019 at 7:47:21 PM permalink
cmlotito, Have you thought of doing some calcs to see how badly you're running these past few weeks?

I lost another $300 and again only getting 40 session points. :(
I thought I was running bad then decided to figure out what the variance of dstp was so I looked up an old calculation I did for $1 5play ($35) dstp 9/5 JoB (99%), $50k coin-in.
(JoB and BP have about the same variance.)

$50k/$35 = 1429 spins

variance 49.16
st dev 7.011419257

OriginalSD 245.399674
sd(1429 spins) $9276.63

ev = -$525 on avg but 1 s.d. can swing +/- $9k on $50k coin-in.

I did 1/12th the coin-in so $9k/12 = +/- $750 for 1 s.d. (approx.)
I lost $900 so I'm -1.2 s.d. thus not running that badly.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Feb 17, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
cmlotito
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February 17th, 2019 at 8:28:45 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds




cmlotito, Have you thought of doing some calcs to see how badly you're running these past few weeks?



No, I know it's bad. But what goes up must come down.....eventually. and vice versa.

If I start heading back towards even I will consider saying how bad it got.

I will be going once this week.

Coincidentally my reduced play strategy seems to have lined up perfectly with me having been transferred from Arlington, Virginia to NW Washington D.C.. I start tomorrow at my new store. I'm looking at at least an extra hour (upwards of 2 hours) in my car every day due to the longer commute. Also the only way to get from the casino to the store is thru the streets of our nations capital. This means I would have had to cut down on my frequent trips even if I was ahead. There would be no way to still get enough sleep, an extra long commute and play all in one day.
100xOdds
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February 17th, 2019 at 8:58:42 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

There would be no way to still get enough sleep, an extra long commute and play all in one day.

simple.. sleep at work :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
GWAE
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February 18th, 2019 at 1:50:42 AM permalink
Quote: RS

They almost certainly have a limit for “downloading” the jackpot. Probably $50k.



I got an email last week from one of the big guys about downloading jackpots. I cant remember who and I deleted the email but it said limit was 9999.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
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April 30th, 2019 at 9:28:15 AM permalink
Haven’t heard from cmlotito in a few months now. I see he’s logged on within a week or so of today, so at least it seems nothing “bad” has happened to him.

Last I remember he said he was potentially moving somewhere else for work and that’d likely slow down his play in the future.


Any updates?
cmlotito
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May 2nd, 2019 at 1:22:08 AM permalink
I'm still alive. Now that I work in DC I'm spending an extra 3 hours a day on average not having free time to do any non work related activities.

Much like 2017 and 2018 I have approached what I am willing to lose for an entire year.. I'm at over a 4% loss rate on a .52% expected loss rate game. Hello variance. So its been an incredibly bad run this year. I haven't had time nor desire to post about it.

I'm still picking up free play offers. This is allowing me to slowly piece together funds to continue to play albeit at quarter level. I did get dealt a flush 4 to a royal last visit with a multiplier on the deal. Had the 5th card been dealt it would have been 100k. Instead I had to break up the flush and couldn't even get a paltry 5k royal. I can post a pic of it when I get a chance.

I've been stuck at receiving $225 a week in free play for 3 months now so that is allowing me to build up bankroll. I really thought for May it would have been cut but it was not.

It's not that I am out of money, just that I'm only willing to beat my head against a wall for so long before something has to change. So I've switched to 5 play quarter bonus poker the last couple weeks which has allowed me to last a lot longer and keep coin in going. At least I'm not having to wait for handpays. So I got that going for me st least.

I came back from similar downturns the last 2 years so I'm just kind of laying low right now figuratively.

My last trip to AC where I had one last full bore attempt did not go well. Had 9 jackpots in 24 hours but still lost a decent amount. Or indecent depending on your point of view. Left a day early because I ran out of money I was willing to lose.

I had decided not to update this thread until someone asked since I figured no one was interested in stories of losing.

Do I feel I will come back to break even or finish ahead for the year? I dont see how it is possible but then again I thought the same thing the previous 2 years.

I am enjoying my new car. Especially now that I end up taking 1-2 hour naps in it every work day to beat rush hour traffic because I work in f*ck*ng DC.
beachbumbabs
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May 2nd, 2019 at 4:45:52 AM permalink
Welcome back, cm!

Actually, I would think lots of people are interested in seeing the lows as well as the highs, if you're willing to update from time to time. It's worth seeing the down side of variance, especially after your $240k hit last year.

Really glad you're enjoying the car. It would suck to give all that big hit back, even if you considered the whole amount part of your bankroll.

Wishing you better days ahead!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
cmlotito
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May 2nd, 2019 at 3:56:28 PM permalink



http://imgur.com/a/sRlcAvv

100k near miss.

Posted this while stuck at work. I can't see the picture but I am sure I have the formatting correct.
rsactuary
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May 2nd, 2019 at 5:20:50 PM permalink
25K near miss? quarters, not dollars?

Still sucks though.
cmlotito
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May 2nd, 2019 at 5:59:37 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

25K near miss? quarters, not dollars?

Still sucks though.


100k near miss
RS
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May 2nd, 2019 at 6:30:09 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

25K near miss? quarters, not dollars?

Still sucks though.


Would’a auto-20x’d if it was dealt.
rsactuary
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May 2nd, 2019 at 7:02:43 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Would’a auto-20x’d if it was dealt.



forgot about that! yes, then 100K near miss.
cmlotito
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May 16th, 2019 at 2:34:31 PM permalink
Ok, so another update. It won't be as detailed as in the past since I don't have the time to go back and post all the jackpots I hit while losing my shirt at DDB DSTP. I switched to $.25 5 Play Bonus Poker to stretch out my bankroll for the time being. Playing $8.75 a hand vs $21 a hand may seem like a let down but it really is not. I'm just now playing at the level I was playing at prior to 2017 when all the craziness started with winning that $10,000 in free play. As I recall back then when I hit a jackpot it actually felt like an accomplishment. The jackpots came so frequently when I started playing for higher stakes it actually cheapened them as an accomplishment (173 jackpots in 2017, 197 in 2018, 58 thru March 14 in 2019). Now that I am back to my pre 2017 reality it feels kind of good not to feel the pressure of trying to hit a big one to stay ahead.

Got a couple of pictures to share. The first was what I hit on my free play collection on May 7th. I played for 3 hours at 5 play DSTP BP and won a terrific $27.50. Why do I say terrific? Because I was down around $600 at my low point and clawed my way back not with a big banger but with several $100-$150 hits spread throughout the last half hour of play. Once I got back to even I stopped and did my free play. I then had one final good bit of luck that day...

Not a bad way to end it.


Onto today, May 16th.

I noticed a couple of changes in the casino today. Miracle of miracles, MGM added back a 3rd good pay table All Star 2 machine to the high limit room. They removed one of the single line Game Kings that had $5, $10, $25, $50 denomination on it (crappy pay tables). They also downgraded the four single line Game Kings upstairs. Those no longer have 96 DDB or 975 DB. No big deal there. I only ever did free play on them sometimes. They still have the two good single line Game Kings by the 4 Giant Monopoly slot machines on the main level.

Anyways, I played for almost 8 hours today. Two machines. $8.75 a pop each. My friend pointed out that $17.50 isn't too far away from the $21 for 3 hands at dollar level. But I'm playing $17.50 over 10 hands at a slightly higher return game. I'm sure that means something :) Not to mention I get more deals in per hour playing 2 machines. (Got to keep going for another dealt royal.)

Anyways, I got my first jackpot playing quarters at this game. Out of the 49 jackpots I have hit at MGM this year, this is the second highest. The other 48 I was playing for dollars. That kind of tells you my crappy luck I have had up to this point.


As of today I have cut my losses for the year by about 10%. That was with this jackpot, my free play collection, and many small wins. I plan to keep plugging away at quarters for the foreseeable future and see what happens.
tringlomane
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May 18th, 2019 at 12:20:22 PM permalink
Nice multiplied royal! Keep the comeback going!

I wish there was a Double STP with a decent paytable for cheap. I miss playing that game, even though it hates me. Lol
Ayecarumba
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May 18th, 2019 at 12:40:05 PM permalink
Thanks for the posts Chris. What did the hand count between royals end up at?
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cmlotito
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May 18th, 2019 at 7:32:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks for the posts Chris. What did the hand count between royals end up at?



Hard to count as I switched between 3 play 5 play and even had a little single line thrown in for good measure. Not to mention the play I did in AC at Multistrike. Just at MGM I estimate over 245,000 hands between royals. Multistrike play definitely added a few thousand to that total but no way of knowing the exact amount.
cmlotito
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May 18th, 2019 at 7:46:52 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Nice multiplied royal! Keep the comeback going!

I wish there was a Double STP with a decent paytable for cheap. I miss playing that game, even though it hates me. Lol



I could play nickel 10 play bonus poker. But I'd rather stay home and sleep then do $3.50 a pop.
cmlotito
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May 18th, 2019 at 8:05:37 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

Hard to count as I switched between 3 play 5 play and even had a little single line thrown in for good measure. Not to mention the play I did in AC at Multistrike. Just at MGM I estimate over 245,000 hands between royals. Multistrike play definitely added a few thousand to that total but no way of knowing the exact amount.


Wait. I had a $1,000 non multiplied royal on April 25. That was about 65,000 hands before the 5k royal. Forgot about that since it wasn't a jackpot. So about 180k hands between royals not counting Multistrike.
cmlotito
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May 18th, 2019 at 8:35:26 PM permalink
A friend asked how long before I go to dollars.

Last year on triple play DSTP BP I did the following.
$338,184 coin in on 16104 deals
Lost $6,362 for a 98.119% return.

That is a relatively small sample but i think I'll be sticking with quarters for a bit longer. Current bankroll dictates i need to not go crazy.

And I'm posting a lot because its Saturday night and I'm stuck in DC working. I plan on going tomorrow to MGM for some freeplay pickup and a little gambling.
djatc
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May 19th, 2019 at 12:26:32 AM permalink
DSTP is the devil. I think I have like ZenKing-like luck on this particular game type.
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cmlotito
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May 29th, 2019 at 7:09:45 PM permalink
***UPDATE***
It's been 151,007 hands since my last royal flush and am in another royal drought. I have slipped back down to only 2.5% above my low point for the year. Running at about a 95% return over those hands which at a 99.71% game just means when things go bad they seem to stay bad for me lately.

BUT!

After getting to only 1,762,857 tier credits I got the call. I am now officially at Noir level. I'll post a picture of my card when I pick it up in a few days.

I guess losing a lot of money means more than getting to 2 million tier credits.

Now I have just seven months to get back to even. I'll even settle for recouping half my losses.. Lol.
tringlomane
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May 29th, 2019 at 9:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

***UPDATE***
It's been 151,007 hands since my last royal flush and am in another royal drought. I have slipped back down to only 2.5% above my low point for the year. Running at about a 95% return over those hands which at a 99.71% game just means when things go bad they seem to stay bad for me lately.

BUT!

After getting to only 1,762,857 tier credits I got the call. I am now officially at Noir level. I'll post a picture of my card when I pick it up in a few days.

I guess losing a lot of money means more than getting to 2 million tier credits.

Now I have just seven months to get back to even. I'll even settle for recouping half my losses.. Lol.



Ack on the Royal drought, but congrats on Noir! Hope you can squeeze a trip to Vegas in while you have it! And hope your luck turns!
cmlotito
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May 31st, 2019 at 1:49:18 AM permalink
Quote: cmlotito

I'll post a picture of my card when I pick it up in a few days.





It took me a few more years than Ralphie.
https://youtu.be/zdA__2tKoIU
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