Superball Keno

First a pic, then some questions:

http://imgur.com/cfn1Mm4

This is a win I had on Superball Keno. For those who don't know the game, it works like this:

1) You select from 2-10 numbers as your picks
2) Depending on how many picks you make, the paytable shows what you need to win and the pays
3) Ten balls are dropped, then you can either raise your bet (double) or not raise
4) Ten more balls are dropped, and after that you have either won or lost
5) The last ball is the "Superball", and if you get that with any winning combo then your win is multiplied 4x

So this win was me playing 7 picks at a $10 bet. You can see the paytable. The jackpot (progressive) was at $8100 at the time. On the first 10 balls I matched 2 of my picks. So I raised bet to $20, and ended up getting 3 more matches PLUS the Superball. So I hit 6 of 7 for 25x my bet of $20 which is $500, then x4 for the Superball....so $2000.

Now I noticed something interesting on the paytable. If you look at the pays for matching 7 of 7....in order for me to win that progressive jackpot of $8100, I would need to match 7 of 7 AND have raised my bet. You can see that the pay for matching 7 of 7 WITHOUT a raise is 500x. The interesting part is that the progressive jackpot is NOT paid 4x if you get the Superball when you matched all 7. I know that for certain. But suppose I had gotten 7 of 7 WITHOUT a raise but DID hit the Superball. Now I am paid off the paytable and NOT the progressive. That means my $10 bet (no raise) would be paid $10 x500 (for 7 of 7) and then x4 for Superball. That's $20,000. Much more than the progressive. And of course a 7 of 7 hit with no raise and no Superball would pay $5000.

Questions:

1) If someone hit that 7 of 7 combo with Superball but no raise on a $10 bet, would they be paid $20,000? Or would the casino say that under no circumstances can the paytable result in a win that is more than the progressive?

2) Can someone figure the payback percentage given that paytable shown for 7 picks, the raise option, the Superball feature, and a progressive of $8100?

3) If so....where would the progressive need to be for this to reach a positive EV level?

I realize this is not a positive EV game and probably far from it given the $8100 progressive level. That seems low considering how much you need to risk to be eligible for that progressive.

Thanks!

My guess is that you are eligible for the progressive at a lower bet. At a $10 bet, the progressive is much worse that the standard pay. If you go back to the casino, hit the help button and take photos of the help screens.

I calculated the return of the game without the progressive, and I came up with 70.6%. With the progressive, it is 72.8% + progressive contribution, assuming the progressive works the way I think it does. Which jurisdiction is this?

At first, I thought there must be some mistake in my calculations, but I found other Superball Keno pay tables online and plugged in those numbers. The pay tables ranged from about 70% to 97%.

To answer your first question, the machine should pay $20,000. With a doubled bet, it might even pay $40,000 instead of the jackpot if it strictly follows the "only highest winner paid" rule, but the machine looks ancient, so who knows what it does.

If you're betting $10 per play, and the game pays only the jackpot when you double down (even if using the paytable would award a higher prize), then:

a) Optimal strategy is to double your bet if you have 2 or more hits after the first 10 draws

b) The long-term return with an $8100 jackpot is 86.944%

c) The break-even jackpot amount is $63,180

If the game had no jackpot at all, the long-term return would be 89.83%.

*These figures assume I did the math correctly; a simulation I did agreed with my math, but I see my results disagree with CrystalMath's results, which is unsettling.

Quote: CrystalMath

My guess is that you are eligible for the progressive at a lower bet. At a $10 bet, the progressive is much worse that the standard pay. If you go back to the casino, hit the help button and take photos of the help screens.

I calculated the return of the game without the progressive, and I came up with 70.6%. With the progressive, it is 72.8% + progressive contribution, assuming the progressive works the way I think it does. Which jurisdiction is this?

At first, I thought there must be some mistake in my calculations, but I found other Superball Keno pay tables online and plugged in those numbers. The pay tables ranged from about 70% to 97%.

This is at Harrah's Cherokee in NC. I will have to check on the progressive being eligible at a lower bet. But my understanding of how these games work, is that since apparently my initial bet of $10 is not "enough" to be eligible for the progressive....then if say I played an initial $5 bet then I would not be eligible for the progressive even if I raised....since that would still be a $10 total bet.

Now this is a $1 denom game. I know that this same game is offered in 25 cent denom, and have played it and know with 100% certainty that to be progressive jackpot eligible on the 25 cent denom your bet size needs to be $5 or more. So you can get there with a $5 initial bet, or you could play $2.50 but if you hit 7 of 7 then you would only win the progressive if you had raised. Of course on the 25 cent game the progressive does not climb as quickly, although I have seen it frequently above $8,000 and even up to $15,000. I think this $8,100 level on the $1 denom game is pretty low at this point.

I will need to play around with the $1 version to see about the different bet levels. Maybe an $8 bet with raise to $16 would still be jackpot eligible.....that sort of thing. Thanks for the reply.

Quote: JB

To answer your first question, the machine should pay $20,000. With a doubled bet, it might even pay $40,000 instead of the jackpot if it strictly follows the "only highest winner paid" rule, but the machine looks ancient, so who knows what it does.

If you're betting $10 per play, and the game pays only the jackpot when you double down (even if using the paytable would award a higher prize), then:

a) Optimal strategy is to double your bet if you have 2 or more hits after the first 10 draws

b) The long-term return with an $8100 jackpot is 86.944%

c) The break-even jackpot amount is $63,180

If the game had no jackpot at all, the long-term return would be 89.83%.

*These figures assume I did the math correctly; a simulation I did agreed with my math, but I see my results disagree with CrystalMath's results, which is unsettling.

Thank you for the very detailed reply. Your calculations obviously take into account the positive aspect of being able to double bet when it is to your advantage....much appreciated.

My understanding is that....in the event of a $10 bet and raise to $20 where the result was 7 of 7 with Superball....the machine would pay the progressive jackpot amount only....in this case $8,100 at the time....and NOT the $40,000 number. That's why the paytable shows "JPOT" and not a 500x under the area for 7 hits with a raise.

So basically it seems that at an $8,100 progressive level....that amount is very low considering odds and bet amount....and even brings DOWN the return as compared to no progressive even being on there. Interesting.

I will have to look and see the progressive amount next time I am there. Perhaps I was just there at a low point or after a recent hit and it was unusually low. I would love to see it get over or even close to the $63,180 range. But short of that happening it seems like playing this game means accepting a roughly 90% payback.

This is a keno option on a Pot O' Gold machine. Typically these games offer 3-4 VP options and 1-2 keno options on their menu. I like the Superball Keno for the 4x feature on the last ball but also because of the raise feature after first 10 balls. With 7 picks, any time you get 3 matches on the first 10 balls then you have at least a push and your bet/raise will at least be returned to you with a chance for more. And I do raise on 2 matches out of the first 10, which happens often enough to keep it interesting. Thanks again.

I did make a mistake. I'm working on fixing it now.

I just realized that the math goes like this....on a 25 cent denom game you must bet a total of $5 to be progressive jackpot eligible....between your initial bet and raise. So that $5 represents 20x the game's minimum bet.

So then on a $1 game, and at that same factor...then it would require a $20 total bet size for the progressive.

Of course that progressive should rise 4x as quickly too on the $1 game. So perhaps next time I am there it will indeed be much higher.

Now, I calculate 91.59% without the progressive, which matches my simulation. Making some assumptions about the progressive, I calculate a return of 92.4%. With my assumptions, the break even would be $20,800.

So, JB and I are still off from each other, which is disconcerting.

Quote: CrystalMath

Now, I calculate 91.59% without the progressive, which matches my simulation. Making some assumptions about the progressive, I calculate a return of 92.4%. With my assumptions, the break even would be $20,800.

So, JB and I are still off from each other, which is disconcerting.

My hunch would be that the difference between yours and JB would be how either the "raise" feature or the "Superball 4x" feature is handled in the calculations? Because just calculating the odds on a standard keno game would be very straightforward, and those 2 features are unique and change the game. That's just my hunch....you two are way way beyond me on calculating the odds!

But hey....I like your break even number of $20,800! If that is indeed the case and it gets over that number then you've got a pretty fun game to play with an expected return over 100%.....doesn't get much better than that!

Thanks again for the info!

Believe it or not, our figures actually agree.

The difference is in how the returns were expressed.

My figure, a return of 89.8298% with no jackpot, is relative to the initial bet.
CM's figure, a return of 91.5941% with no jackpot, is relative to the average bet (sometimes 1, sometimes 2, but overall about 1.21 times the initial bet)

So it's all about how you want to look at it - 89.83% return of the initial bet or 91.59% return of the average bet.

Personally, I would say that the house edge is 10.17% but the long-term return is 91.59%.

If you throw in the jackpot limitation, then the return of the initial bet is 86.944% and of the average bet is 89.209%.

Quote: JB

Believe it or not, our figures actually agree.

The difference is in how the returns were expressed.

My figure, a return of 89.8298% with no jackpot, is relative to the initial bet.
CM's figure, a return of 91.5941% with no jackpot, is relative to the average bet (sometimes 1, sometimes 2, but overall about 1.21 times the initial bet)

So it's all about how you want to look at it - 89.83% return of the initial bet or 91.59% return of the average bet.

Personally, I would say that the house edge is 10.17% but the long-term return is 91.59%.

If you throw in the jackpot limitation, then the return of the initial bet is 86.944% and of the average bet is 89.209%.

Great, thanks. Any idea about the difference on where the progressive needs to be to make this game +EV?

CM has it at $20,800 and yours is $63,180...?

Quote: pelotari

Great, thanks. Any idea about the difference on where the progressive needs to be to make this game +EV?

CM has it at $20,800 and yours is $63,180...?

JB was right.

I am now calculating a break even jackpot of $63,180.

My assumptions are:
If you don't raise and don't hit the power ball, you win $5000.
If you don't raise and hit the power ball, you win $20000.
If you raise, you will win $8100 regardless of the power ball.

Quote: CrystalMath

JB was right.

I am now calculating a break even jackpot of $63,180.

My assumptions are:
If you don't raise and don't hit the power ball, you win $5000.
If you don't raise and hit the power ball, you win $20000.
If you raise, you will win $8100 regardless of the power ball.

Wow. That would be a total rip, to jackpot for less than best odds pay. Seems like it should be additive, where you would win both the progressive and the 500x amount of your total bet, but can only win the progressive if you raise.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Wow. That would be a total rip, to jackpot for less than best odds pay. Seems like it should be additive, where you would win both the progressive and the 500x amount of your total bet, but can only win the progressive if you raise.

Yeah, it seems like if a $20 bet amount (between initial bet/raise) is what is required to be "progressive eligible".....then the absolute minimum the progressive should start at is $10,000. That would be 500x the bet amount, and 500x is the payout for 7 of 7 on an initial bet at a lower amount. So what's the deal with an $8100 progressive??!!

And.....since the progressive is NOT paid at 4x if your 7 of 7 win happens to include the Superball.....but a non-progressive 7 of 7 win with Superball WOULD, then you have this scenario:

(Let's make the progressive an even $8000 for illustration purposes)

Player 1 does initial bets of $10, so that on a raise their total bet is $20 and they are progressive eligible. They get 7 of 7 on a raised bet play and they hit the Superball too. What do they win? The progressive, $8000. The fact that they had the Superball means nothing. And on a 7 of 7 win with a raised bet but without the Superball they still win....the progressive....$8000.

Player 2 does initial bets of $8, so on a raise their total bet is $16. Since this is less than $20, they are NOT progressive eligible. So any 7 of 7 win is paid at 500x....which is what the paytable shows. That means if they get 7 of 7 on a raised bet play they still win AT LEAST $8000. Because if they didn't have the Superball they would be paid 500x their $16 bet. So they still got $8000. But of course if THEIR win was 7 of 7 WITH the Superball then they get paid $32,000. It's their $16 bet at 500x (for 7 of 7) and then another 4x for the Superball. Since their win keeps them on the regular paytable and NOT the progressive, that Superball matters....to the tune of an additional $24,000!

So who's the sucker here??!! Well, both....for playing a game with a 10% house edge. But between these two.....you definitely want to be player 2 in this example IF you are going to play the game at an $8000 progressive level.

And....if you take the Superball feature out of it.....consider a Player 3 who makes $9 initial bets. With a raise that is $18....still not progressive eligible. But if they have a raised play that results in 7 of 7...even without the Superball....they win $18 x500 for $9000. More than the progressive of $8000. More than the progressive eligible Player 1....who is betting more....would win for same result.

I was basically playing it as Player 1, and after hitting that $2000 handpay and getting a pic and then looking at that paytable a little more closely (at home on the pic), I started thinking.....wait a second here. Something doesn't seem right. And that's when I found this forum and posted. The odds experts have been most helpful.

But this game should ALWAYS reset their progressive to $10,000 AT A MINIMUM. Below that does seem to be a ripoff as compared to regular paytable.