Went for it
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI am sure the dealers know. I gave away tens of thousands in tips throughout the ordeal. Other than huge slot jackpots, I think the casinos know to be quiet about table win/losses.
the casinos may keep quiet but dealers won't
Quote: GWAEI feel sorry for your future gambling life. I can guarantee that playing red chip BJ will no longer be fun. I have basically moved up to green chip BJ and red chip for me just seems ho hum. I can imagine how I would feel if I were betting 1000s then switched back to red.
+1
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI am very frugal and take every win as a blessing even if I win a $5 bet.
Some blessings are more equal than others!
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI am sure the dealers know. I gave away tens of thousands in tips throughout the ordeal. Other than huge slot jackpots, I think the casinos know to be quiet about table win/losses.
I know the many reasons that players tip but I'm interested in hearing yours.
Were you in such a euphoric state that you couldn't help yourself? Did you perceive the dealers as making you win? Did they hustle you and make you feel obligated or are you just a generous person?
Quote: 1BBI know the many reasons that players tip but I'm interested in hearing yours.
Were you in such a euphoric state that you couldn't help yourself? Did you perceive the dealers as making you win? Did they hustle you and make you feel obligated or are you just a generous person?
I don't believe the dealers helped me win at all. They were extremely friendly and fun to play with. I tip because I am generous and I also had friends who used to be dealers when I lived in Vegas (mostly poker). I guess I have a soft spot for dealers who take abuse from ploppies and inhale all that 2nd hand smoke everyday. I guess it is part of occupational hazard if you will, but I do not mind tipping good dealers who generally want me to win. I even had a dealer make subtle hints that I should take a break when the swings were bad. I am going to guess that the dealer was counting and knew I was not, and maybe the count was nor favorable?? The dealer was looking after the best interest (my chips which he knew I'd be tipping if I were winning). But that is just my guess. I really don't know. I hope I answered your question on why I tip.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI don't believe the dealers helped me win at all. They were extremely friendly and fun to play with. I tip because I am generous and I also had friends who used to be dealers when I lived in Vegas (mostly poker). I guess I have a soft spot for dealers who take abuse from ploppies and inhale all that 2nd hand smoke everyday. I guess it is part of occupational hazard if you will, but I do not mind tipping good dealers who generally want me to win. I even had a dealer make subtle hints that I should take a break when the swings were bad. I am going to guess that the dealer was counting and knew I was not, and maybe the count was nor favorable?? The dealer was looking after the best interest (my chips which he knew I'd be tipping if I were winning). But that is just my guess. I really don't know. I hope I answered your question on why I tip.
Yes, you did. You sound like a great guy. Tipping is a sore spot with some of us here.
On a related note, I know of a few slot attendants who would point out the "hot" machines to anyone who would walk by. Eventually one would hit and you know the rest of that story.
Quote: 1BBYes, you did. You sound like a great guy. Tipping is a sore spot with some of us here.
On a related note, I know of a few slot attendants who would point out the "hot" machines to anyone who would walk by. Eventually one would hit and you know the rest of that story.
Haha. That is clever. Vegas is such a crazy town...I love it. Anything CAN happen.
Quote: AhighI see a pattern, and in my very expert opinion, it's not apophenia.
Darn it. Had to use Google again to figure out what that line meant.
Great word!
yesQuote: AhighLet me ask you a question. Does it bring you joy to make comments like the comment you made here?
and I know you love me
I love you too
those first dates only come around onceQuote: AhighI went back to read some of the first interactions that I had with you.
thank you for remembering
for all your quirks,
what a big heart you have!
(that is nice)
1 - a few unpleasant emotions = many pleasant emotionsQuote: AhighI had a few unpleasant emotions reading what you wrote.
the OP, who will remain nameless, should have asked what were his chances of turning $5000 into $1 million on how he played, imoQuote: AhighI see a pattern, and in my very expert opinion, it's not apophenia.
instead he just said
look at me!!
look at what I did!
and I thanked him for sharing
===========================
now for some math
his attempt was to turn 5k into 1 million and that is turning 1 unit into 200 units = the event
(1,000,000 / 5,000 or 1,000,000 * 1/5000)
now, who gets all hard and bothered by one claiming, maybe me, that started with $1 and turned that into $200
crickets?
exactly the same as turning $5k into $1 million (a cool million)
example:
for the don't pass against dicesetter as shooter (he on the pass)
I see the probability of that event being close to 1 in 224.0267881 (close to you)
or out of 1 million attempts, keeping dicesetter busy,
abouts 4464 are successful, even if they are blind squirrels
so, as mentioned some rare events do happen every day or every week
I think the OP did nothing special
and if he were to try it again, Oh Ahigh
let us not go there
(and I enjoyed your thank you for me finishing your incomplete simulation too)
thank you for sharing
Sally is nice
no need to show a defenseQuote: SiegfriedRoyIn my defense, I never really cared about the probability.
I think you did the right thing, sharing that is
I was just not impressed with what you did (you want to spank me for that)
and
stated that as fact (as my opinion)
with my reason for it
==================================
no one would be impressed with turning $1 into $200
==================================
that is exactly what you did, as I see it
of course, keeping the math simple for all of us
Sally
Quote: mustangsally
I see the probability of that event being close to 1 in 224.0267881 (close to you)
That's the odds of running up 1 unit to 200 when the max bet is only 2 units? Is that the max bet you used in the sim (i.e. $10k)?
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI am sure the dealers know. I gave away tens of thousands in tips throughout the ordeal. Other than huge slot jackpots, I think the casinos know to be quiet about table win/losses.
No they wouldn't, they would like people to think they can win big at any game they offer. They still have the edge. The only logical reason that they may not publicize it is that they would think it would attract more APs than regular players (questionable line of thinking at best).
If you stick to your future plans though, the casinos won't like you much. They want to win that money back!
Quote: SiegfriedRoyBtw. Tringlomane, I really loved your last trip report to Vegas. That was well done with great pictures. Enjoyed every word.
Thanks! But there is still more...lol I documented nearly everything! I just didn't release it all at once because it would be a lot to deal with.
And with going back to red/green chip play, I would think going to CET too would be best.
But I'm still trying to grasp what made you want to run up your wagers so much for that stretch. If you are normally a red/green chipper or 1/2 NLHE player, I would have expected you to pull the plug a bit sooner. Was your biggest bet $10k? Did it get any higher than that?
some one was paying attention. I like thatQuote: tringlomaneThat's the odds of running up 1 unit to 200 when the max bet is only 2 units? Is that the max bet you used in the sim (i.e. $10k)?
I did not simulate this as a calculation in Excel is so so very very very easy to do
using a transition matrix (any doubt?)
and I say is way more impressive than just a simulation alone
because
math is fun!
also, just betting a don't pass (I mentioned nothing about laying odds too)
for the max bet I still use Excel and the answer I gave used no max bet limit
as I wanted to see if any noticed
so with a max bet of 2
(his was higher because of playing 3 hands, double, splits etc)
I get (starting with $1 and a max bet of $2 with 0 odds)
0.000902959 or
1 in 1107.469413
that is on average, 903 blind squirrels out of 1 million cute critters
being successful
see
starting at 1 unit to 2 units p = 949/1925
now to turn 2 units into 200 (a gain of 198 units ) = 0.1831609%
while flat betting 2 units at a time
just multiply the two values
try it!
it really is fun
added: because you asked
a max bet of 3X(15k)
a max bet of 5X(25k)
a max bet of 10X(50k)
WoW!
only 1 in 287
most would still
think this turning $5k into $1 million is at least a 1 in a million type shot, if not higher
not so
at CP right on the strip, no high limit are required too one can make $50,000 don't pass bets
I'm now impressed (Sally)
yes, I checked this with some code BruceZ wrote for me
remember BruceZ
can't wait to see his new website/blog
I bothered him for years to "get it done"
now the wait is almost over
this was fun!
Sally
of course this is just your opinionQuote: SiegfriedRoyIt is better to be lucky than good.
this sounds even better, imo
"It is better to be lucky and good"
I take this one any day
thank you for sharing
Sally
yes, I second that emotion tooQuote: beachbumbabsWell, then, SiegRoy, congratulations on your win, and thanks for sharing the story.
as I did show, way easier than most thinkQuote: beachbumbabsReally nice to think it can be done.
but that is OK as most find it difficult to calculate the actual chances of hitting high win goal targets
Sally is nice
added:
so instead of a 1 in a billion event (or higher)
a 1 in 1107 ain't bad either
(even 2 out of 3 ain't bad)
Quote: tringlomaneThanks! But there is still more...lol I documented nearly everything! I just didn't release it all at once because it would be a lot to deal with.
And with going back to red/green chip play, I would think going to CET too would be best.
But I'm still trying to grasp what made you want to run up your wagers so much for that stretch. If you are normally a red/green chipper or 1/2 NLHE player, I would have expected you to pull the plug a bit sooner. Was your biggest bet $10k? Did it get any higher than that?
it is like you say things before I get a chance to.
I am basically a red/green player. Even if I was taking a shot and playing black I can not imagine that I would ever get past a 1k bet. Even if I was on a super hot streak and up 200k I don't think I would ever have the balls to bet 5k
really?Quote: GWAEI am basically a red/green player.
<snip>
Even if I was on a super hot streak and up 200k I don't think I would ever have the balls to bet 5k
This makes so sense to me at all.
if you have a $200 bankroll and are betting $5 each hand that is having 40 units in the bankroll, in other words,
is it hard to bet $5 with a $200 bankroll?
hahaha
betting $5k with a $200k bankroll is identical (same 40 unit bankroll)
it really is the same thing
takes no balls at all
hmmm, what am I missing
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyreally?
This makes so sense to me at all.
if you have a $200 bankroll and are betting $5 each hand that is having 40 units in the bankroll, in other words,
is it hard to bet $5 with a $200 bankroll?
hahaha
betting $5k with a $200k bankroll is identical (same 40 unit bankroll)
it really is the same thing
takes no balls at all
hmmm, what am I missing
Sally
But you have to detach yourself from the money and not think it is money you are betting. Most would not be able to do that at 200k
I still do not see thatQuote: wudgedIt's about the raw amount of money being bet, not the percentage of bankroll. For many people $5,000 is a significant amount of money even if you do have 200k sitting right there.
Both players still would have only 40 chips in front of them, being different colors.
stack of red = $5 player
say stack of white for the $5k player
what is so hard, or as you guys say "It takes BALLS", to bet just one chip at a time?
remember both are betting ONLY 1 of their 40 chips
this ball thing must be a male thing
(I hear some females have them too, but not me)
Sally
maybe a photo showing this would bring home the point
Quote: beachbumbabsWell, then, SiegRoy, congratulations on your win, and thanks for sharing the story. Really nice to think it can be done.
Thank you very much!
Quote: mustangsally
maybe a photo showing this would bring home the point
I think that would be an instant ban for not keeping it PG.
Your point is very valid about percentage of bankroll.
However, If I am sitting with 40 units of red and lose 50% it is no big deal but if I am sitting on 40 units of 5k chips then losing half is life changing.
photo coming after lunch timeQuote: GWAEI think that would be an instant ban for not keeping it PG.
Your point is very valid about percentage of bankroll.
also added:
now,
both players flat betting would still have the same chance to double their 40 unit bankroll
would one be more impressed by the guy that doubles his 200k bank
or by the girl that doubled her $200 bank
one should never play scared.Quote: GWAEHowever, If I am sitting with 40 units of red and lose 50% it is no big deal but if I am sitting on 40 units of 5k chips then losing half is life changing.
you should not care to lose your bankroll that you are playing with.
I (eye) see this is the problem
see, the value of money should never come into the fun of gambling, imo
Sally
Quote: GWAEI think that would be an instant ban for not keeping it PG.
Your point is very valid about percentage of bankroll.
However, If I am sitting with 40 units of red and lose 50% it is no big deal but if I am sitting on 40 units of 5k chips then losing half is life changing.
Because winning or losing $200k would have a dramatic effect on how one lives for most of us, winning or losing $200 is not a big deal. In other words, if you got up to $200k, your emotional bankroll would be far less than $200k even though you have that much in chips.
I'm a green chip and occasional black chip player and if I ever found myself up 200k, then anything between me and the cage would be in danger of being run over.Quote: GWAEI am basically a red/green player. Even if I was taking a shot and playing black I can not imagine that I would ever get past a 1k bet. Even if I was on a super hot streak and up 200k I don't think I would ever have the balls to bet 5k
Quote: wudgedIt's about the raw amount of money being bet, not the percentage of bankroll. For many people $5,000 is a significant amount of money even if you do have 200k sitting right there.
This reminds me of a poignant comment some writer once made, to the effect that the invention of casino chips in lieu of cash has done more to separate bettors from their money that has anything else.
Somehow it's easier to bet (and lose) chips than a stack of greenbacks.
Psychology 101.
Quote: mustangsallyI still do not see that
Both players still would have only 40 chips in front of them, being different colors.
stack of red = $5 player
say stack of white for the $5k player
what is so hard, or as you guys say "It takes BALLS", to bet just one chip at a time?
remember both are betting ONLY 1 of their 40 chips
this ball thing must be a male thing
(I hear some females have them too, but not me)
Sally
maybe a photo showing this would bring home the point
Sally, while what you say is true about being 1/40th of the stack…I think SiegRoy thinks like I do in that you think of the original minimum chip you were betting, say a black chip and that one black chip now turns into 50 black chips, it is, as was stated, the "raw" amount of money the chip represents
Quote: mustangsally
==================================
no one would be impressed with turning $1 into $200
==================================
Sally
Actually that would impress me, not easy to do.
Quote: MrVThis reminds me of a poignant comment some writer once made, to the effect that the invention of casino chips in lieu of cash has done more to separate bettors from their money that has anything else.
Somehow it's easier to bet (and lose) chips than a stack of greenbacks.
I agree, when I'm winning it's much easier to bet big chips than I would if it was cash, it's absolutely a casino advantage to play with chips.
deleted a bunch of posts including his fantastic win and hasn't been back since Nov 9
Quote: odiousgambitwhat has happened to Mr. Roy? Tiger got him?
deleted a bunch of posts including his fantastic win and hasn't been back since Nov 9
He deleted the post that he started the thread with. Looking at a post on the first page, it seems Mr Roy turned $2K into $1M without counting. Why delete a great story like that? We grinders need inspiration.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI was betting the table max at the Mirage high limit room. 10K a hand up to 3 hands a swing. They did not let me play more than 3 hands in a row. That is what I was playing at the very end. I started with 100 to 200, then I moved to 500 to 1000. When I was up a lot, it was monopoly money so I went to 5k to 10k.
Here's one post that won't disappear.
Let's assume his story was true (which I don't, I don't care what his players card shows)Quote: 1BBHe deleted the post that he started the thread with. Looking at a post on the first page, it seems Mr Roy turned $2K into $1M without counting. Why delete a great story like that? We grinders need inspiration.
That's not smart to post about it on the forum for many reasons.
He probably got a PM from every Roulette, baccarat system player on the forum.
Is this the guy who let Mike look at his players account?
I wouldn't be surprised if someone swindled him out of it, or he spent it, and he now he still owes taxes. Wondering if Mike could be subpoenaed by the IRS since he looked at the guys players account ?
Quote: AxelWolfIs this the guy who let Mike look at his players account?
yep, don't feel like searching but I'm pretty sure
Quote: AxelWolfLet's assume his story was true (which I don't, I don't care what his players card shows)
He probably got a PM from every Roulette, baccarat system player on the forum.
Is this the guy who let Mike look at his players account?
I wouldn't be surprised if someone swindled him out of it, or he spent it, and he now he still owes taxes. Wondering if Mike could be subpoenaed by the IRS since he looked at the guys players account ?
Haha. You sound like the direct TV commercial. http://youtu.be/kIv3m2gMgUU
You probably wish for your story to be true... Unfortunately for you I am still doing great.
your excuse for deletions is a bit lame too
> Lost some and won back some
I'm still biting. No details?
What made you think Transocean was a good bet? I'm not disagreeing with you. Did you think there was a big upside even after they got hit with the Deepwater Horizon debacle?Quote: SiegfriedRoyLost around 60k with transocean stocks, won back with cypress semiconductor stocks. I don't care if you guys believe me. It doesn't affect my bankroll or my well being, I'd now rather want people to not believe so that they wouldn't go give their life savings to the casinos. Peace
I believe you. Bet big, win big. Some people just have that inclination. Remember that guy who posted all the cash from the casinos in South Africa, Korea and Macau? Like a worldwide multi-million dollar winning streak.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyLost around 60k with [name doesnt' matter] stocks, won back with [name doesnt' matter] stocks
that's betting big alright
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI decided to delete my post because...I didn't want my story to inspire people who shouldn't be gambling to go lose their rent money as what I did was a rare occasion.
Hmmm, deleting one's post as a public service?
Different result, perhaps, had you not posted such inflammatory material in the first place.
Nothing quite liking stirring up hungry lions with the scent of fresh, bloody meat, is there?
