Odds of Rolling a 7 Before a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 Four Times

This question spawns from a betting method that I have devised that I think is pretty good. Obviously I'm playing Craps and using two 6-sided dice. I
tried to do the calculations myself, but I am not confident in the result. I used the following:

Odds of rolling a 4,5,6,8,9,10: 24/36
Odds of rolling a 7: 6/36
Odds of rolling 7 before the others: 1/4

I then raised it to the 4th power to get .00391 or .391%.

Is that the correct possibility of that specific order of events?

Many thanks!

I, for one, agree with your logic and your answer.

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

This question spawns from a betting method that I have devised that I think is pretty good. Obviously I'm playing Craps and using two 6-sided dice. I
tried to do the calculations myself, but I am not confident in the result. I used the following:

Odds of rolling a 4,5,6,8,9,10: 24/36
Odds of rolling a 7: 6/36
Odds of rolling 7 before the others: 1/4

I then raised it to the 4th power to get .00391 or .391%.

Is that the correct possibility of that specific order of events?

Many thanks!

4/6th of the time you roll a box, yes
1/6th of the time you roll the red (aka seven)

The chance of rolling a box before a red if you have all of them bet is 4/5.

So you should end up with 4/5th to the power of four. or 256/625

So that's about 40.96% of the time.

I think you were close, but it happens more often than 0.391% of the time.

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

Odds of rolling a 4,5,6,8,9,10: 24/36

You are showing the probability not the odds

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

Odds of rolling a 7: 6/36
Odds of rolling 7 before the others: 1/4

The probability of rolling a 7 before the others {2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12}
is 6/36 as you said.

The probability of rolling a 7 before any place bet {4,5,6,8,9,10} is
6/(6+24) = 6/30 = 1/5 = 0.20 = 20%

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

I then raised it to the 4th power to get .00391 or .391%.

Four 7s before any place bet I get
0.20^4 = 0.0016 or 1 in 625 trials and each trial is not one roll long

more about that concept here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/13332-triple-7s-in-craps/#post226582

You have some big wins from a betting method that you have devised??
Good Luck

Awesome, many thanks guys. I think I'm placing my faith in that last answer. I don't have any wins using this method to brag about, no. Using sims, I always nearly double my money from $10k, but always end up losing it in the end an the principal with it. Whoever created the game is a genius...

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

This question spawns from a betting method that I have devised that I think is pretty good. Obviously I'm playing Craps and using two 6-sided dice. I
tried to do the calculations myself, but I am not confident in the result. I used the following:

Odds of rolling a 4,5,6,8,9,10: 24/36
Odds of rolling a 7: 6/36
Odds of rolling 7 before the others: 1/4

I then raised it to the 4th power to get .00391 or .391%.

Is that the correct possibility of that specific order of events?

Many thanks!

Could you please release method as I'm running out of ideas. Thanks

Quote: ForgetTheOdds

Is that the correct possibility of that specific order of events?

I think a better question would be why did you put this in "Big Wins" instead of the "Betting Systems" or "Craps" forum.