Roulette Evolution....repeaters

......one spin per minute, I love it. These days, RE is usually my only time I'll use a progression. On a regular wheel, its all flat betting.

Anyways, I use a 1-73 progression, betting 2 numbers. $906 BR, $16.35 average NET win. RE keeps track of the last 15 hit. This is key that its NOT less than 15. How many times have we seen the same number hit 3 times in the last 15? Enough for my method.

I bet on two numbers within the last 15-20 that have TWO hits on it using the 1-73 progression.

Point being, the LAST two SETS of two hit is what I use for my betting. On a win (we of course now have a number with 3 hits), I'll use that number as part of my next series of betting.

(NEVER bet on-line, just my opinion)

What I like about this, we are ROTATING different sets of numbers, NEVER sticking with the same two long term.

Ken

((Disclaimer: There are risks involved when playing methods and you can lose alot of money. Not all days are winning days. Please play responsibly and never drive while intoxicated))

You can probably stay ahead awhile using this,
just don't keep at it too long.

The funny part, my average spin for my win is at 29 and the progression goes up to 73 (thats the good news).

Granted (I admit) 56 wins equals one loss.

Ken

For this progression with the bankroll of $906, how much are you flatbetting?

What is a 1 to 73 progression?

1) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $1
2) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 16 Bankroll Needed: $2
3) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 15 Bankroll Needed: $3
4) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 14 Bankroll Needed: $4
5) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $5
6) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $6
7) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $7
8) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 10 Bankroll Needed: $8
9) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 9 Bankroll Needed: $9
10) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 8 Bankroll Needed: $10
11) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $11
12) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 6 Bankroll Needed: $12
13) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $13
14) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $14
15) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $15
16) Bet: $ .5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 2 Bankroll Needed: $16
17) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 35 Bankroll Needed: $19
18) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 32 Bankroll Needed: $22
19) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $25
20) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 26 Bankroll Needed: $28
21) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $31
22) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 20 Bankroll Needed: $34
23) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $37
24) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 14 Bankroll Needed: $40
25) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $43
26) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 8 Bankroll Needed: $46
27) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 5 Bankroll Needed: $49
28) Bet: $ 1.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 2 Bankroll Needed: $52
29) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 33 Bankroll Needed: $57
30) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 28 Bankroll Needed: $62
31) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 23 Bankroll Needed: $67
32) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 18 Bankroll Needed: $72
33) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $77
34) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 8 Bankroll Needed: $82
35) Bet: $ 2.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $87
36) Bet: $ 3.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 32 Bankroll Needed: $94
37) Bet: $ 3.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $101
38) Bet: $ 3.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 18 Bankroll Needed: $108
39) Bet: $ 3.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 11 Bankroll Needed: $115
40) Bet: $ 3.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $122
41) Bet: $ 4.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 31 Bankroll Needed: $131
42) Bet: $ 4.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 22 Bankroll Needed: $140
43) Bet: $ 4.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 13 Bankroll Needed: $149
44) Bet: $ 4.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $158
45) Bet: $ 5.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $169
46) Bet: $ 5.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 18 Bankroll Needed: $180
47) Bet: $ 5.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 7 Bankroll Needed: $191
48) Bet: $ 6.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 30 Bankroll Needed: $204
49) Bet: $ 6.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $217
50) Bet: $ 6.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $230
51) Bet: $ 7.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $245
52) Bet: $ 7.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 10 Bankroll Needed: $260
53) Bet: $ 8.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $277
54) Bet: $ 8.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $294
55) Bet: $ 9.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 29 Bankroll Needed: $313
56) Bet: $ 9.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 10 Bankroll Needed: $332
57) Bet: $ 10.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 25 Bankroll Needed: $353
58) Bet: $ 10.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 4 Bankroll Needed: $374
59) Bet: $ 11.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 17 Bankroll Needed: $397
60) Bet: $ 12.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 28 Bankroll Needed: $422
61) Bet: $ 12.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $447
62) Bet: $ 13.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $474
63) Bet: $ 14.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $503
64) Bet: $ 15.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 24 Bankroll Needed: $534
65) Bet: $ 16.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $567
66) Bet: $ 17.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 28 Bankroll Needed: $602
67) Bet: $ 18.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 27 Bankroll Needed: $639
68) Bet: $ 19.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 24 Bankroll Needed: $678
69) Bet: $ 20.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 19 Bankroll Needed: $719
70) Bet: $ 21.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 12 Bankroll Needed: $762
71) Bet: $ 22.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 3 Bankroll Needed: $807
72) Bet: $ 24.5 on 2 spots. Profit on a Win: $ 26 Bankroll Needed: $856
73) Bet: $25 on 2 spots. Profit on a win: MINUS $6, Bankroll Needed: $906



Keep in mind, there is a $2 min bet. So for bets 1-16, I also bet .50 on red and .50 on black. If a 0/00 does hit (1-16), $1 will be subtracted at any stage of a win.

Ken

most tables with a $2 minimum require two inside or two out side,
not a combination of in and out totaling $2.
where are you playing that you can just split the minimum wager like this?

I got it now. Around 98% of the time you will win an average of around $16. Around 2% of the time you will lose around $900. So overall, as expected with any roulette betting system, the overall loss from the infrequent losses will exceed the total of the many small wins. If your goal is to walk into a casino, and walk out with more money, and are willing to do so with perhaps a dollar or two more than you came in, then this system will work 49 out of 50 times. I know of no one who walks into a casino with a grand in his pocket who plans to stay until he is up a buck or two, risking the entire grand.... just saying...

MrJJJ, Thanks for posting your progression chart.

Quote: SOOPOO

I got it now.
Around 98% of the time you will win an average of around $16.

Put another way. 98 out of 100 attempts, on average, will result in an average win of $16.
One then needs a distribution of 99 or 100 per 100 attempts. Oh, oh, that 98% chance is losing its power for many attempts by one person or many persons.

Quote: SOOPOO

Around 2% of the time you will lose around $900.

Put another way. 2 out of 100 attempts, on average, will result in a progression bankroll loss.

Even with a 98% chance of winning just one progression, there is just about a 50/50 chance of making it to the 34th attempt.
0.98^34=0.503
Half will bust a bankroll by the 34th progression attempt.

One has to know what is to be expected when a gun has 2 bullets placed into 2 chambers out of 100 chambers.
Russian Roulette anyone???

progressions in any house edge game soon become the dog and a killer on bankrolls.
Just a matter of time.
In a 1 million player simulation 980,686 won their very first progression.

Guess what happened to the other 19,314
Did they chose the wrong numbers?
No. They were told exactly what 2 number to choose.

I think the probabilities of a distribution also stays constant. (# of repeats in 15 spins for example)
True that some distributions are more rare than others.
But given enough time and attempts even they will show up close to their averages.
Wait, I know the probability of a distribution also stays constant.
The math says so.

One should then have many, many and many different progressions to play in a negative expectation game.
Expect sooner or later a bust out before winning just one time.

Stay to the right of the curve for a few attempts then change plans.
But soon one has to stop playing when the progressions run out.

OK, Spend the rest of ones' lifetime counting all the winnings.
But can a gambler really do that.
I do not think so.

Sally

Quite a bit of in-depth analysis and drawn-out explanations here. I can break it down much more concisely: in the long run, this system will lose approximately $5.26 per $100 wagered on a double-0 American roulette wheel. Unfortunately, I feel that this explanation will not resonate with progression players any more than it has in the past.

Progressions for long winning streaks need very high winning probabilities.
a 98% progression win goes below 50% win probability by the 34th roll.

for a 50% win probability
99%win 69 trials
99.5%win 138 trials
99.9%win 692 trials

Not terribly hard to do with 35 to 1 payouts

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Quite a bit of in-depth analysis and drawn-out explanations here. I can break it down much more concisely:
in the long run, this system will lose approximately $5.26 per $100 wagered on a double-0 American roulette wheel.
Unfortunately, I feel that this explanation will not resonate with progression players any more than it has in the past.

Not *will*
Progression players know the long run will eventually catch up to them.

If the system pointed to in this thread is only played 34 times in a lifetime, 50% that do attempt this method will, on average, walk away with a profit. That is a given.

True for some, 34 attempts is a long run, but not for others.

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Unfortunately, I feel that this explanation will not resonate with progression players any more than it has in the past.

Your post did not add any relevant content to the threads' topic.

mrjjj posted a betting system in a betting system forum. He is know for betting systems.

Purpose is to get feed back on the system.

Talking about "long term" and house edge is NOT the topic of this thread.
It belongs in its own thread.

If you, me or any one else, do not like betting systems, there are other places we can go.

Quote: mrjjj

I bet on two numbers within the last 15-20 that have TWO hits on it using the 1-73 progression.

In about 30 out of 100 15 spin sets, there will be 3 or more numbers that have hit 2 times.
Do you take the first 2 or last 2? (added: I see you take the last)
or does it matter?
Maybe a different progression if more than 2 numbers?

sim data
# of numbers hit 2 times in 15 spins

Quote: mrjjj

How many times have we seen the same number hit 3 times in the last 15?

I have asked the same question myself.
Sim data. # of numbers in 15 spins with 3 or more hits
Looks like 3 out or 4 sets contain NO numbers that have hit at least 3 times.
Some do

@guido111 >> Thanks for all your time you put into these posts.

Ken

Quote: WongBo

most tables with a $2 minimum require two inside or two out side,
not a combination of in and out totaling $2.
where are you playing that you can just split the minimum wager like this?

(Milwaukee) Most RE machines (as far as I know), you CAN split up the bets. This was not in the form of.....can I bet like this, its......I do bet like this.
If you wanted, you could bet $1.75 on the inside and .25 on the outside if you needed to.

On the RE machines, I have a couple advantages using a progression over trying to do so at a regular table.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

(Milwaukee) Most RE machines (as far as I know), you CAN split up the bets.

The nice thing about RE is there are no inside or outside min
bets. You can bet anywhere you like as long as the table min
is met. Its a system players dream because you can bet the
outside and still make a small bet on the inside to cover the
zeros if you want.

Quote: EvenBob

The nice thing about RE is there are no inside or outside min
bets. You can bet anywhere you like as long as the table min
is met. Its a system players dream because you can bet the
outside and still make a small bet on the inside to cover the
zeros if you want.

BINGO !!!! Like I said, there are a couple advantages and I do use those advantages. Your BR is not out of control, you'll get paid exactly correct on a win (no mistakes), a 'same bet' button, you can slide your bets around etc. etc.

Here is another thing I do that MOST will not (damn rookies)......certain methods involve sliding my bets as needed. I bring a SMALL bottle of Windex with me and one piece of paper towel. I give the towel a squirt or two and clean the screen off perfectly, no issues with sliding. (lol) Roulette is all I do guys and *EVERY* what-if situation is covered !!!!!

Ken

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Quite a bit of in-depth analysis and drawn-out explanations here. I can break it down much more concisely: in the long run, this system will lose approximately $5.26 per $100 wagered on a double-0 American roulette wheel. Unfortunately, I feel that this explanation will not resonate with progression players any more than it has in the past.

Geez, let me guess. Its $2.70 per $100 wagered on the single zero wheel. Wow, thank God this game is NOT as black and white as that. Why?

I would never play it if it was that EASY to lose.

Ken

There are many advantages to RE play. Nobody is standing
there watching you or your play. You can place a ton of bets
that would be impossible on a real wheel and just hit a button
to repeat it next time. Payouts are immediate. You always know
exactly where you stand because the amount is right in front
of you. The game is never held up because of a slow dealer.
You can sit out spins and nobody cares. There are far more spins
per hour than a real wheel.

Quote: EvenBob

There are many advantages to RE play. Nobody is standing
there watching you or your play. You can place a ton of bets
that would be impossible on a real wheel and just hit a button
to repeat it next time. Payouts are immediate. You always know
exactly where you stand because the amount is right in front
of you. The game is never held up because of a slow dealer.
You can sit out spins and nobody cares. There are far more spins
per hour than a real wheel.

Yep, MANY benefits. The two biggies >

A) Skipping spins
B) One spin per minute (average)

Also that digital dealer is kind of cute.

Does the 73 progression work though? All you are really doing is picking two numbers each spin but varying the money bet on them.

Quote: FleaStiff

Also that digital dealer is kind of cute.
.

You're thinking of a different game. RE uses a real
wheel under a dome. You're thinking of a virtual
wheel that uses an RNG.

Quote: FleaStiff

Does the 73 progression work though?

98% of the time it works.
It has less than a 50% chance of winning 35 times in a row.
That is why I would rather see at least a 99.5% chance of winning one progression.
Or play Euro Roulette with 37 slots instead.
But this thread is talking about a Roulette machine.

Quote: FleaStiff

All you are really doing is picking two numbers each spin but varying the money bet on them.

True.
But he is using the last 15 spins to tell what 2 numbers to bet on.
It's a distribution thing.

Quote: mrjjj

The funny part, my average spin for my win is at 29 and the progression goes up to 73 (thats the good news).

The average number of trials to win your progression is 19. 1/(2/38)
You are a bit on the high side unless you have only played it a few times.
That could be a good thing.

Quote: mrjjj

Granted (I admit) 56 wins equals one loss.
Ken

The probability of a single progression win is 98.07%
=1-(1-(2/38))^73
(unless one thinks it is higher due to the 2 number selection process)

56 wins in a row = 98.07% ^56
33.55%
Looks good if one likes 1 in 3.

Quote: guido111

But he is using the last 15 spins to tell what 2 numbers to bet on.
It's a distribution thing.

Oh, well I seem to have missed that part ... but aren't you supposed to select your two numbers based on the anatomy of the nearest hot chick?

Quote: mustangsally

The average number of trials to win your progression is 19. 1/(2/38)
You are a bit on the high side unless you have only played it a few times.
That could be a good thing.
The probability of a single progression win is 98.07%
=1-(1-(2/38))^73
(unless one thinks it is higher due to the 2 number selection process)

56 wins in a row = 98.07% ^56
33.55%
Looks good if one likes 1 in 3.

19? Even BETTER, thanks for the info !! I thought 29 was great. So at 19, I still have 54 MORE spins to go, nice.
What I meant by 56 wins, I took the average NET win and just divided into the total BR needed.....its a round average, nothing special. On every progression I use, I keep note of how many wins equals a loss.

Like I said though, alot of times on RE, I use a progression. At a regular table, rarely these days, its all flat betting.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

19? Even BETTER, thanks for the info !! I thought 29 was great. So at 19, I still have 54 MORE spins to go, nice.
What I meant by 56 wins, I took the average NET win and just divided into the total BR needed.....its a round average, nothing special. On every progression I use, I keep note of how many wins equals a loss.

Your numbers are relatively well spread (they go up and down) so it's a reasonable "finger in the air" way to make a guess. Be careful using it when the net wins increase over the progression, or decrease... the chance of getting to each level is different. As another poster did, it looked liked they had a Mathematical proof of a win with a progression... except it only won big after a LOT of failed progressions.

" it looked liked they had a Mathematical proof of a win with a progression.. except it only won big after a LOT of failed progressions. "

Really, my, that is unusual.

Quote: buzzpaff

" it looked liked they had a Mathematical proof of a win with a progression.. except it only won big after a LOT of failed progressions. "

Really, my, that is unusual.

I should have said "failed steps in the progression" :p

They added up all the potential winnings and divided by the number of steps. Don't work like that. :)