Martingale with a twist. What are the percentage of losing all?
Maximum bet =$3000
First off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?
Here is the scenario:
Bank wins 11 hands in a row.
I bet player and lose, then raise the bet according to martingale system.
Hand --- Bet
#12 ---- $20
#13 ---- $40
#14 ---- $80
#15 ---- $160
#16 ---- $320
#17 ---- $640
#18 ---- $1350
#19 ---- $3000
What are the odds of losing the entire 8 bets in the hopes that bank won't win 20 consecutive hands?
Notice that bet #18 and #19 is slightly higher
Thank you
The probability for eleven in a row is around 1 in 4,000.
The probability for twenty in a row is about 1 in 900,000
You may have to sit through hundreds of shoes for this opportunity.
I've played bac for thirty two years and that was the first time I've seen twelve in a row!
I'd rather nail my dick to a burning building.
Quote: exoxerisMinimum bet = $20
Maximum bet =$3000
First off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?
Here is the scenario:
Bank wins 11 hands in a row.
I bet player and lose, then raise the bet according to martingale system.
Hand --- Bet
#12 ---- $20
#13 ---- $40
#14 ---- $80
#15 ---- $160
#16 ---- $320
#17 ---- $640
#18 ---- $1350
#19 ---- $3000
What are the odds of losing the entire 8 bets in the hopes that bank won't win 20 consecutive hands?
Notice that bet #18 and #19 is slightly higher
Thank you
I assume we are playing player in Baccarat, and ignoring ties.
Doesn't matter what happened on the previous results. Only the next 8 you are actually betting on. After 11 bank wins, the chance of 8 more is roughly 0.4%. After 11 bank losses, the chance of 8 more bank wins in a row is roughly 0.4%. After 5 bank wins and 6 bank losses, the chance of 8 banks is roughly 0.4%.
You have a 99.7% chance of winning ~$20, and a 0.4% chance of losing $5610. Average loss per sequence is $3.91. Plus waiting all day for a 11 banks in a row for a chance of winning $20? 11 banks in a row is 1 in 1816 chance. At 100 hands an hour, you'll be waiting over 18 hours for this to happen. For chance to win $20.
Good luck, chuck.
Per 8 deck shoe (simulation results)Quote: exoxerisFirst off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?
run of length 11 banker wins
1.8582% or about 1 in 54 shoes
(in 80 shoes it happened 2 times! High tax bracket for 2 wins)
data freq freq/100
0.00 981418 98.14%
1.00 18502 1.85%
2.00 80 0.01%
0.000039 or about 1 in 25,641 shoes
You are welcome.Quote: exoxerisWhat are the odds of losing the entire 8 bets in the hopes that bank won't win 20 consecutive hands?
Thank you
Now since you would have just witnessed 11 Banker wins in a row, the table is Rocking and big bets are riding the Banker wave, you start to bet Player.
The probability of losing the very next 8 hands is 0.50682483^8 = 0.004353746
or about 1 in 230
In 1999 I rode an 18 Banker win streak.
I still have some winnings from that.
.446247 player win
.095156 tie
Eight deck shoe
There are houses that have 5 to 10 Bac tables going in an eight hour period.Quote: thecesspitPlus waiting all day for a 11 banks in a row for a chance of winning $20? 11 banks in a row is 1 in 1816 chance. At 100 hands an hour, you'll be waiting over 18 hours for this to happen. For chance to win $20.
Good luck, chuck.
If you can watch all the scorecard displays or watch for a table with a lot of excitement from a Banker run, 11 Banker wins can easily happen at least one time every day.
Quote: guido111There are houses that have 5 to 10 Bac tables going in an eight hour period.
If you can watch all the scorecard displays or watch for a table with a lot of excitement from a Banker run, 11 Banker wins can easily happen at least one time every day.
So you are going to sit all day for a chance to win $20?? And I thought MY life had too much time in it!
I think the OP would.Quote: BozSo you are going to sit all day for a chance to win $20?? And I thought MY life had too much time in it!
He probably plays a lot of Bac. There are many Bac players that play a lot of Bac.
What ever his method of bet selection is will go out the window as soon as he sees a run of 11 Banker wins.
He sees it as an easy 20 bucks.
easy money honey.
But honey, as sweet as it is, can be sticky, and very sticky. Too much honey, larger pants needed.
Quote: exoxerisFirst off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?
As with all betting systems, the question irrelevant. It doesn't matter what the chances are, your chances of winning more money are not controlled by past wins or losses. Cards have no memory of the past.
Quote: guido111Per 8 deck shoe (simulation results)
run of length 11 banker wins
1.8582% or about 1 in 54 shoes
(in 80 shoes it happened 2 times! High tax bracket for 2 wins)run of 20 happened only 39 times in 1 million shoes
data freq freq/100
0.00 981418 98.14%
1.00 18502 1.85%
2.00 80 0.01%
Guido, only 18582 streaks of 11 ??
I wonder what sez your simulation for streaks of 6 ?
Quote: edwardI wonder what sez your simulation for streaks of 6 ?
You are in luck.
Some day I will update my streak page.
Baccarat Streaks question
The casino had 10 tables with big scoreboards. I was actually much more aggressive and did not wait for the 11 streaks. I started betting aggressively after 5-8 streaks. The bets went from $20, then up to 40, 100, 250, 650, 1500. Pretty risky for small reward.
I won 8 days consecutively total nearly $18,000.
Then i lost a big one of $3000+. Didn't think much at the time, I expected it.
Then I lost another big one around $4000.
Then won small one around $1000
Then lost another big one $4000
The last day I went, lost around $5000. Started to bet at 11 bank streaks. the bank ended with 18 win streak.
Today, I still have around 2000 winnings. learning statistics have really helped my gambling addiction.
Also, I did not just bet on streaks, I have many other strategies to keep myself active at least several times per hour.
What little you have learned of statistics has only fueled your gambling addiction.
Quote: PopCanI'm guessing you disagree and, if so, why?
But long term variance this, and statistical evening that, and blah blah blah.... ;)
thats the concept to the extreme end.
Regression to the mean would suggest that the next Banker streak after a run of 50 would be less than 50. It does not say how long the very next will be.Quote: edwardIf bank won 50 hands in a row i would bet that the next streak (player) will be short...
Probability does.
I hope you would be betting for Banker during that 50 in a row.
Quote: guido111Regression to the mean would suggest that the next Banker streak after a run of 50 would be less than 50. It does not say how long the very next will be.
Probability does.
I hope you would be betting for Banker during that 50 in a row.
Honestly, i would not play at all on this game :-))))
I prefer sport bets or poker.(not online)
Quote: exoxerisIf bank wins 50 hands in a row, won't you bet player next? 51 is near impossible statistically.
thats the concept to the extreme end.
I definitely wouldn't bet the player next. Yes, if you're just sitting down at a table the chance of the NEXT 51 hands being bank wins is amazingly small. However, after 50 bank wins the chance for the bank to win the next hand is about 45%.
Imagine a game show with 50 rooms. In each room the contestant must flip a coin. If it's head he moves on to the next room, and if it's tails he gets brutally murdered. You see a player flip heads in every room and now he's in the 50th room. What are the chance he makes it past the final room now that he's in the 50th? It's 50%. While he was initially a longshot you already watched him successfully pass all the previous rooms. Every time in those previous rooms you gasped as he tossed the coin, but once it landed heads he'd successfully defeated that room's 50% chance of death. Since he's defeated all those previous chances of death, his chance of death in the 50th room is now just 50%, same as in all the other rooms. That same concept applies here.
Quote: PopCanI definitely wouldn't bet the player next. Yes, if you're just sitting down at a table the chance of the NEXT 51 hands being bank wins is amazingly small. However, after 50 bank wins the chance for the bank to win the next hand is about 45%.
Imagine a game show with 50 rooms. In each room the contestant must flip a coin. If it's head he moves on to the next room, and if it's tails he gets brutally murdered. You see a player flip heads in every room and now he's in the 50th room. What are the chance he makes it past the final room now that he's in the 50th? It's 50%. While he was initially a longshot you already watched him successfully pass all the previous rooms. Every time in those previous rooms you gasped as he tossed the coin, but once it landed heads he'd successfully defeated that room's 50% chance of death. Since he's defeated all those previous chances of death, his chance of death in the 50th room is now just 50%, same as in all the other rooms. That same concept applies here.
Most brutal description of Gambler's Fallacy I've ever read. I like it.
We need to have a Gambler's Fallacy task force for these forums. Everyone takes a shift, then the rest of us don't have to bother replying unless we're on shift.
