Betting systems never work in the long run - AGREED - lets talk about the short term.
And the people who think they fit in that category are usually in error.
Quote: buzzpaffVery few go in expecting to (APs and/or pro poker players notwithstanding).
And the people who think they fit in that category are usually in error.
BINGO....BAM, out of the park !!! Can I add to the list...... the people that are lying regarding being an AP (cough) 'master'. (lol)
Ken
Quote: EvenBobNobody said it was necessary to lose every time. As
far as 'over the career', do you know anybody who
doesn't have the edge ever to beat the casino for any
length of time, let alone a lifetime?
Yes. I know two, one who has hit an unexpectedly high number of royal flushes (one on a $5 progressive, one on a $10), and me. I am still up lifetime on dice as a result of a monster hand I threw about a decade ago. I've undoubtedly lost since, but not all of it.
Quote: IbeatyouracesOh yes I'm a big fat liar! I just been lucky as hell for the last 12 years. *Eyeroll*
My comment has NOTHING to do with you, I was speaking in general terms.
Ken
Quote: MathExtremistYes. I know two, one who has hit an unexpectedly high number of royal flushes (one on a $5 progressive, one on a $10), and me. I am still up lifetime on dice as a result of a monster hand I threw about a decade ago. I've undoubtedly lost since, but not all of it.
Exactly. To beat the house for good, you need exceeding lucky results that far outweigh your average betting patterns. Examples include winning a large slot jackpot, cashing out, and never playing high stakes in casinos. Another example would be a fluke streak on a table game in which you happen to cash out for many times your bankroll. One time about 5 years ago I hit a profit of 10,000 on blackjack with a buy in of $100. I just happened to hit many hands in a row and let it ride on an anti-martingale until I had several thousand. Considering my average trip expenses rarely exceed a few hundred in gambling costs, it's a solid proposition that I will remain ahead of the house for many years to come.
Long story short, experience an earth-shattering moment of positive variance, and the casino may never catch up if you don't play at stakes close to your high-variance win.
Quote: MathExtremistYes. I know two, one who has hit an unexpectedly high number of royal flushes (one on a $5 progressive, one on a $10), and me. I am still up lifetime on dice as a result of a monster hand I threw about a decade ago. I've undoubtedly lost since, but not all of it.
Thats it? Jeez, I know at least 4. Kind of makes my point,
doesn't it. We should know dozens and dozens. Two of
those I know quit when they were ahead and never
gambled again. The other two are heavy hitter BJ and craps players
who got lucky and then slowed their play way back to almost
nothing. They won't last, the temptation is working on them.
Quote: EvenBobThats it? Jeez, I know at least 4. Kind of makes my point,
doesn't it. We should know dozens and dozens. Two of
those I know quit when they were ahead and never
gambled again. The other two are heavy hitter BJ and craps players
who got lucky and then slowed their play way back to almost
nothing. They won't last, the temptation is working on them.
Kind of makes your point!!?? You clearly said that it is impossible to be a winner over a career of gambling, and then you say you know four people who have done it. I'd say this clearly disproves your point.
I'm not saying that it is likely to be a career winner. I'm not saying that any system exists which makes it more likely. But it is mathematically possible (and even not unlikely) to be a winner in the short term, and lots of people's gambling career can definitely be considered short term. It's not magic, it's just math.
(at least those numbers ring a bell from some simulations I once ran).
Quote: PapaChubbyYou clearly said that it is impossible to be a winner over a career of gambling
Nope, I asked if he knew anybody. I actually know a
couple more who claim it, but they're on the net and
I've never met them. They mean nothing, lucky players
are aberrations. There's a guy on another forum who
claims he won for 30 years and then it stopped and
he hasn't won since.
I can do this twice a year for 20 years, and there will still be an 11% chance that I'll finish a winner. One out of 9 people who play in this fashion will have winning gambling careers.
And just to take things to extremes, lets say that I have an "average" blackjack career. With $25 average bets, I'll lose an average of $100 per session, or $4000 over my career. On my last trip to Vegas, I could place $5000 on red at the roulette table, which would be a pretty bad bet. But there is still a 47% chance that I will finish my career a winner.
Quote: PapaChubbyOne out of 9 people who play in this fashion will have winning gambling careers.
So there should be hundreds of players in Vegas alone
earning their livings doing this. Where are they?
Quote: EvenBobNope, I asked if he knew anybody.
Quotes from you:
Only in the very beginning of your gambling career
can you maybe get ahead and stay there for a
little while. But very soon the losses outweigh the
wins and you're chasing for the rest of your life.
The vast majority of casino
patrons have no idea they can't get ahead and
stay ahead.
Quote: awakefield1983Why is this subject so taboo within the elite gambling community?
1) This holier than thou routine with regards to proper betting etiquette and optimal strategy gets incredibly old. Lest we forget that we are all playing a game with a negative expected return for the player, we all know it, we all accept it and we continue to play. We can hide behind saying things like "I just enjoy playing the game" or "this is what I'm willing to pay for the entertainment value". These casino games are inherently dry and boring; Is it really all that excited trying to collect a sum of cards that add up to 21? No, the excitement comes from winning, from trying to avoid losing, from trying to minimize the house edge as much as possible, from the possibility of walking away with some of the casino's money; its how we keep score. Can you imagine watching a basketball game where no score is kept? No, it would be boring. We try to beat the casino after spotting them some points up front (the house edge) and it's the gambling that is fun, not the game itself. People don't buy scratch off tickets because they enjoy taking a quarter to a piece of cardboard - they enjoy the possibility of winning.
2) When debunking betting systems, it is always said that in the long-run you are no better or worse off than flat betting, the system can't beat the game, you will always approach the house edge. If this is so.......then what the heck does it really matter if someone uses a system???? You are no better or worse off in the long-run! Therefore, the flat bettor and the progressive bettor end up the same eventually, so why does the progressive bettor look like a bonehead and the flat bettor look like a mathematical genius?
3) Shackleford himself admits that a system such as the martingale will see a profit the majority of the time in a given session, however, the few losses far exceed the small wins and cannot beat the house edge in the long-run. I agree with this statement 100%. Granted the losing session can happen right out of the gate, but so can a natural royal flush in video poker. SO...If, in the long-run, the end result is the same (the house edge/expected negative return) and in the short term a progressive system works the majority of the time for a given session, AND a gambler sticks to his set amount that he is comfortable losing, why is it so insulting to the gambling gods to give it a try during a given session?
The individual who only plays one time for 1 hour - doesn't need to win in the long-run
Just a couple thoughts to get people talking again...
Thumbs up!
Love this post - have felt the same. People are very critical of "systems", yet you can't bet without a system. Flat betting is the system. It's called flat betting system.
Systems are fun I think. They are fun to tinker with. They are fun to explore, invent, decipher, etc.
Not sure why many on here think that if you mention the word system that is synonymous with the belief of not losing. Very strange indeed.
by the way, my system works. ;)
Quote: EvenBobSo there should be hundreds of players in Vegas alone
earning their livings doing this. Where are they?
Who said anything about earning a living? You've got to stop shifting the foundation of the discussion to cover your tracks. Based on my example, I'm talking about the possibility of being up maybe as much as $10,000 over a lifetime. You know, recreational gambling. And not losing.
Edit: Oops, I apologize if there was any confusion over my use of the term "career". I simply meant this to be the lifetime experience of a recreational gambler. I certainly did not mean "occupation." If you're going to gamble enough to have any chance of making a living off of it, then you're definitely entering into long term territory and have negligible chance of coming out ahead. Definitely not a suitable career choice.
Quote: slackyhackyFlat betting is the system. It's called flat betting system.
Systems are fun I think. They are fun to tinker with. They are fun to explore, invent, decipher, etc.
You are absolutely right.
Quote:Not sure why many on here think that if you mention the word system that is synonymous with the belief of not losing. Very strange indeed.
Because the MAJORITY of the time, people mention the word system with a belief in not losing. See below.
Quote:by the way, my system works. ;)
And what is that system? And what is "works"?
700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trials and when it fails, 'they' will be on you like white on rice. I say, if it works for you, I think thats awesome, good job buddy!!!
Ken
Quote: PapaChubbyBut very soon the losses outweigh the
wins and you're chasing for the rest of your life.
And thats true for 99.9% of gamblers. There's always
exceptions. I forgot about Mrjjj, he's also ahead. I know
this for a fact, not just because he says so.
Quote: PapaChubbyDefinitely not a suitable career choice.
There you go, then.
Quote: mrjjj"by the way, my system works" >>> Oh boy, now you stepped in it. They're gonna insist it goes through a test of
700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trials and when it fails, 'they' will be on you like white on rice. I say, if it works for you, I think thats awesome, good job buddy!!!
Ken
Actually Ken, not at all. I'm just curious what it is. I don't care if he runs it through 7 tests, or 7 billion tests. Why is it that the people who claim others are pessimistic are so pessimistic??
Quote: YoDiceRoll11Actually Ken, not at all. I'm just curious what it is. I don't care if he runs it through 7 tests, or 7 billion tests. Why is it that the people who claim others are pessimistic are so pessimistic??
Ha.
good point.
I was kinda kidding about me having a system that works. it works if you can lay 10,000 odds and start with something like 10,000,000 in craps.
Craps is unique in that you can bet in a way that you have 2:1 odds of you winning the bet (not talking about winning $), and while waiting for that, you can also make a slow increase (while other numbers roll). I like that idea.
Quote: EvenBobSo there should be hundreds of players in Vegas alone
earning their livings doing this. Where are they?
This is idiotic. No one said they can tell IN ADVANCE which of the 9 players will be ahead. No one said that for SURE any one of the nine players will be ahead. They just said that ON AVERAGE, 1 of 9 would be ahead. And by the way, add me to the list of those that are ahead in my career, some from AP play when I was younger, and some from taking advantage of weak casino play now. However, if I had to guess, I'll likely be behind at the end of my career.....unless I get lucky and am the one in nine...
Quote: slackyhackyit works if you can lay 10,000 odds and start with something like 10,000,000 in craps.
Craps is unique in that you can bet in a way that you have 2:1 odds of you winning the bet (not talking about winning $), and while waiting for that, you can also make a slow increase (while other numbers roll). I like that idea.
$10,000 on the don't pass odds? Finally someone plays a low HE bet with a theoretically sufficient bankroll. :)
Nice
Quote: slackyhackyCraps is unique in that you can bet in a way that you have 2:1 odds of you winning the bet (not talking about winning $), and while waiting for that, you can also make a slow increase (while other numbers roll). I like that idea.
Craps isn't unique in that regard. You can bet 32 inside numbers in roulette and have 32:6 odds of winning a bet. Roulette is even more flexible than craps in that sense, but the edge is terrible. If someone put up a single-zero wheel where you only lost 20% of your bet on a zero, I'd probably play roulette too.
Quote: awakefield1983I agree 100% that all betting systems are flawed when trying to beat the game in the long run and cannot avoid the house edge.
I am not a professional gambler, meaning, I don't make a living from gambling. However, I gamble quite well, I know optimal strategy for almost every basic casino game, have no superstitions, can easily quit when hitting my profit goal/stop loss limits etc.
This being said, for someone who only spends a few days out of the year at the casino and is not looking to make a profit in the "long-run", would applying a betting system to attempt to make profits in the "short-run" make sense?
When using a progressive betting system, it works the majority of the time. Admittedly, the losses are more substantial when they do occur. Therefore, when trying to make a marginal sum of money, while only playing a few hours out of the year, is the risk worth it? Under this scenario, I would argue yes.
What are you thoughts?
Just to reiterate - I am not mathematically challenged - I know that no betting system can work in the long run - I am simply laying our a hypothetical for marginal short-term wins.
That's called gambling you can win in the short term even if you are the underdog to the casino. The dealers like that because they usually get tipped by these short term winners. The longer people play with a disadvantage the more and more likely the casino is to win.
