Bankroll: maximizing odds of achieving desired outcome
January 18th, 2010 at 4:10:51 PM
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Hi,
I have the following math question:
-I sit at a given table (or VP machine) with a bankroll of 20x, where 'x' is the minimum table bet (or relevant '5 coin' play for a VP machine). I intend on playing the minimum table bet, and only that, until I reach a bankroll of either '0' or '40x'. What game gives me the best chance of achieving '40x'? The immediate intuition is BJ or a full-pay VP, but a part of me thinks it'd be something like 3-card poker, where wins on the order of 30x to 40x are reasonably common, without relying on less likely outcomes to boost the EV.
Also, same question, but what about leaving at '0' or '100x'?
Thanks, Mike
I have the following math question:
-I sit at a given table (or VP machine) with a bankroll of 20x, where 'x' is the minimum table bet (or relevant '5 coin' play for a VP machine). I intend on playing the minimum table bet, and only that, until I reach a bankroll of either '0' or '40x'. What game gives me the best chance of achieving '40x'? The immediate intuition is BJ or a full-pay VP, but a part of me thinks it'd be something like 3-card poker, where wins on the order of 30x to 40x are reasonably common, without relying on less likely outcomes to boost the EV.
Also, same question, but what about leaving at '0' or '100x'?
Thanks, Mike
April 3rd, 2010 at 9:28:36 AM
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Beats me. I can't count past ten without taking my shoes off.
>"...What game gives me the best chance of achieving '40x'? The immediate intuition is BJ or a full-pay VP, but a part of me thinks it'd be something like 3-card poker, where wins on the order of 30x to 40x are reasonably common...".
I would select your game on the basis of what you most enjoy and will most be staying alert about through the evening's free cocktail service. Your goal is to double your bankroll from twenty times the minimum bet to forty times the minimum bet without first achieving Gambler's Ruin of zich times the minimum bet.
Obviously you will have to know the variance of these games that you are considering and also how well you are able to stick to Basic Strategy without getting whimsical even if you do get lucky. The lower the variance the less likely a first few adverse decisions will have on you. I've seen people sit down at a blackjack table and if they lose three hands they leave. If their first hand is a blackjack they certainly stay. Mathematically you are never "playing with their money" but emotionally I think it helps people to win the first few rounds.
I've no idea how long it should take at three card poker to get some of those 30x or 40x wins you speak of. At BlackJack you wont be getting them at all.
So which games favor both your interests and skills? THEN look to see if there is any mathematical likelihood of a more favorable game.
>"...What game gives me the best chance of achieving '40x'? The immediate intuition is BJ or a full-pay VP, but a part of me thinks it'd be something like 3-card poker, where wins on the order of 30x to 40x are reasonably common...".
I would select your game on the basis of what you most enjoy and will most be staying alert about through the evening's free cocktail service. Your goal is to double your bankroll from twenty times the minimum bet to forty times the minimum bet without first achieving Gambler's Ruin of zich times the minimum bet.
Obviously you will have to know the variance of these games that you are considering and also how well you are able to stick to Basic Strategy without getting whimsical even if you do get lucky. The lower the variance the less likely a first few adverse decisions will have on you. I've seen people sit down at a blackjack table and if they lose three hands they leave. If their first hand is a blackjack they certainly stay. Mathematically you are never "playing with their money" but emotionally I think it helps people to win the first few rounds.
I've no idea how long it should take at three card poker to get some of those 30x or 40x wins you speak of. At BlackJack you wont be getting them at all.
So which games favor both your interests and skills? THEN look to see if there is any mathematical likelihood of a more favorable game.
