Winning in the short-term....for a working life?!!!
Quote: WizardofAusJust told my friend about the above but he rightly said he wouldn't want to be another $7K to extend the progression by 40 spins or risk a large $10K BR in one progression.
You guys are going to play this system at
on online casino? Thats pretty exciting!
I wish I was as brave as you..
Quote: EvenBobYou guys are going to play this system at
on online casino? Thats pretty exciting!
I wish I was as brave as you..
Is there an online casino with "Live" spins from a real casino that averages around 100 an hour anywhere?
Here's what I've got so far.
1. Watch the first spin and record the number that hits. That number is the Target.
2. Observe the next 10 spins.
...2a. If 80 spins have happened without the Target being successfully re-hit, then go to Step #3.
...2b. The last spin becomes the new Target. Go to Step #2.
3. Bet $1 on the last number hit for the next 10 spins.
...3a. If the number being bet on doesn't hit, then change the number bet on to the last number spun. (But how much to bet?)
...3b. If the number being bet on does hit, then what?
BTW, Weaselman, WizardOfAus wanted to do my LIVE Betting System Challenge, played in a real casino with a smaller number of rounds, as an even-money bet (not 200,000 rounds with 10-1 odds).
Quote: MichaelBluejayI appreciate the attempts to translate the system into plain English, but I'm sorry, I still don't have a clue as to how it works. I try to study what's been written but my eyes glaze over pretty quickly. I could probably understand it with 30 minutes of study, but I don't have that kind of patience or even time.
Here's what I've got so far.
1. Watch the first spin and record the number that hits. That number is the Target.
2. Observe the next 10 spins.
...2a. If 80 spins have happened without the Target being successfully re-hit, then go to Step #3.
...2b. The last spin becomes the new Target. Go to Step #2.
3. Bet $1 on the last number hit for the next 10 spins.
...3a. If the number being bet on doesn't hit, then change the number bet on to the last number spun. (But how much to bet?)
...3b. If the number being bet on does hit, then what?
Thanks MBJ.
For 2a) by the time 80 spins comes around - there should have been 8 different targets.
You use the 150 betting progression for every spin after 80 spins. - So 230 in total.
You probably still don't understand how it works. I'm sorry.
Was able to do another live test in the casino today - won $230 in just over two hours. It was so funny - there were two other blokes in there today - one playing two tables electronic screens at once - he had over $6K across two screens and playing tiers, etc - the pre-programmed betting structures that the sofeware offers - he was basically upping his bets - guess across two screens he was able to double the bet limits...
Another old man had some complicated system with A,B,C,D and some matrix going on - thought our system was complicated :)
Ken
The essence of the system is that even if you win all you've done is catch up to where you were. After umpteen reds in a row, you can double your bet on black hoping to catch up but you may easily find that after umpteen reds in a row you now have umpteen and one reds in a row.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
BTW, Weaselman, WizardOfAus wanted to do my LIVE Betting System Challenge, played in a real casino with a smaller number of rounds, as an even-money bet (not 200,000 rounds with 10-1 odds).
The why do you care at all what his system is? Just let him bet on whatever he wants.
All that matters for your purposes of estimating the chance of winning 10,000 rounds is the betting progression (obviouly, it does not matter which number he bets on). The progression sequence is listed in the first post of this thread. Just look at the first number on every line - that is how much you are supposed to bet at each step.
One progression will take about 40 rounds on average. So, for 10,000 rounds you need about 250 of them.
Chance of not losing at all is (1-(36/37)^150)^250 - about 1.6%. But to show profit in the end, one can afford losing a few progressions (could be as many as 70 or more of them). Calculating the exact chance of winning becomes cumbersome, a simulation may be a better approach. My gut is telling me, that you still have a +EV bet here, bat barely.
Quote: weaselmanThe progression sequence is listed in the first post of this thread. Just look at the first number on every line - that is how much you are supposed to bet at each step.
If that table made any sense to me then I wouldn't be posting repeated requests for a plain-English explanation of the system.
Sure, I see that the bets increase. I just have no idea when or why they increase.
Can anyone (including WizardOfAus) correctly rewrite my attempt on p. 11 in the same style?
Also, many posters (like SOOPOO) are missing WoA's point. WoA has never claimed he has a long-term winning system, so arguing that there's no such thing as a long-term winning system is a straw man. WoA is talking about a system with a good chance of winning over a limited period of time. Granted, no system should have a good chance of winning over a period as long as someone's lifetime without an astronomical bankroll, but THAT'S the point to make, not to argue against something that WoA never said.
Quote: MichaelBluejayIf that table made any sense to me then I wouldn't be posting repeated requests for a plain-English explanation of the system.
Sure, I see that the bets increase. I just have no idea when or why they increase.
Whenever a bet is lost, you move to the next line in the table, and bet whatever amount it says (which is either the same amount, or an increase). If at any point the bet is won, progression stops.
I ran a simulation of about 200K sessions, 10,000 spins each, $5000 starting bankroll.
Here are the results:
Win (have more than 5K after 10000 spins): 43.14%
Lose (end up with less than 5K) 56.86%
Average result of a session: down $979
Average progressions per session: 179.39
Winning (end up with more than you started with) progressions: 97.522%
Average result of a progression: down $5.46
Average number of spins per progression: 36.08
(Edit: I modified the "win criteria" to include the "$15/hour" requirement - I think OP mentioned somewhere that he was able to play about 2 progressions per hour. That's 72 spins on average (I think, you can bet two numbers at the same time sometimes), so one session would require about 139 hours, thus, I counted a session as a win if it ends up with at least 2K more than it started. This did not affect win/lose percentages much - still about 43% vs. 57%)
(Edit2: I noticed another condition in the challenge rules: Starting bankroll is 1/3 the number of total rounds, in dollars, banked by you. Incorporating that into the sim (dropping the starting bankroll from $5000 to $3333), changes the win frequency to 29.2%, with average result about -$736.)
Here is the sim if you care:
#!/usr/bin/perl
my $bets = [(1)x18,(2)x12,(3)x9,(4)x7,(5)x6,(6)x5,(7)x4,(8)x4,(9)x4,(10)x3,(11)x3,
(12)x3,(13)x2, (14)x3, (15)x2, (16)x2, (17)x2, (18)x2, (19)x2, 20,
(21)x2, 22, (23)x2, 24,25,26,27,28,29,30,(31)x2,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,40,
41,42,43,45,46,47,49,50,52,53,55,56,57,58,60,62,63,65,67,69,71,73,75,
77,79,82,84,87,89,92,94,97,100];
sub progress
{
my ($br, $spins, $n, $tot) = @_;
foreach (@$bets)
{
last unless $br >= $_;
$br -= $_;
$tot += $_;
$n++;
($br += $_*36, last) if(rand() <= 1/37);
last if($n >= $spins);
}
return ($br, $n, $tot);
}
sub session
{
my ($br, $spins, $stats) = @_;
my $winTH = 2000;
my $startBR = $br + $winTH;
my $progs, $sum = 0;
while($spins > 0 && $br > 0)
{
my ($nb,$n,$tot) = progress($br,$spins);
$stats->{progressions}++;
$stats->{spins} += $n;
$stats->{res} += ($nb-$br);
$stats->{progwin}++ if $nb > $br;
$br = $nb;
$spins -= $n;
$progs++;
$sum += $tot;
}
$stats->{sessions}++;
$stats->{ $br > startBR ? 'wins' : 'losses' }++;
$stats->{sesres} += ($br-$startBR);
$stats->{sesprogs} += $progs;
$stats->{sesbets} += $sum;
}
sub printstats
{
# sessions: winP, losP, avgRes (theo), avgbets, avprogs, progwinP, res/prog, spins/prog
my $s = shift;
my $t = $s->{sessions};
my $tp = $s->{progressions};
printf("%8d:%8.3f:%8.3f:%9.2f (%7.2f):%10.2f:%7.2f:%8.3f:%6.2f:%6.2f\n",
$s->{sessions},
$s->{wins}*100.0/$t,
$s->{losses}*100.0/$t,
$s->{sesres}/$t,
-$s->{sesbets}/(37*$t),
$s->{sesbets}/$t,
$s->{sesprogs}/$t,
$s->{progwin}*100.0/$tp,
$s->{res}/$tp,
$s->{spins}/$tp);
}
my $stats = {};
while(1)
{
session(3333,10000, $stats);
printstats($stats);
}"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Quote: MichaelBluejayBTW, Weaselman, WizardOfAus wanted to do my LIVE Betting System Challenge, played in a real casino with a smaller number of rounds, as an even-money bet (not 200,000 rounds with 10-1 odds).
OK...
The OP has found a roulette machine that spins the ball even if you do not bet. He must otherwise watch many spins before betting. I wonder if he can still play if he is the only one at the machine.
There are also Craps machines that do the same. I have played them. You put your $$$ in and still need to make that first wager or the machine will just look at you as you are some type of dumb player not knowing what to do.
Now, I would say that NO B&M casino in the world will just spin the ball without you or anyone having a minimum wager.
They would be absolutely stupid to do so.
Sure some high roller Baccarat players can get away with it, (having hands played out when there are no wagers on the table) but most play with very high average bets and bankroll.
A live casino challenge will never happen since OP NEEDS 80 spins to even think of making his first wager.
I find the system of play very easy to understand and very easy to program.
If I find some extra time the next few days I will attempt the "Granny" English version.
Until then
Good Luck.
So WizardOfAus, if you're still game for the live challenge, you can contact me directly and we'll go from there. You suggested 10,000 spins at 100/hr., or 100 hours, and since the challenge bet is $50 per hour, that would be a $5000 wager between you and me. I'm ready to risk my $5000, are you?
Quote: guido111Now, I would say that NO B&M casino in the world will just spin the ball without you or anyone having a minimum wager. They would be absolutely stupid to do so.
This reminds me of watching a group of friends playing Casino War (version where regardless of how many players are playing at the table, only one card is dealt representing all players), and they had just won 7 bets in a row. The "leader" of the group said they should wait 1 hand before betting again. But since no one else was going to bet on the next hand, the dealer said he couldn't just deal out cards when no one is betting. So they bet the next hand and lost, lol.
Quote: WizardofAus
12 17 x 5 x
36 33 x 3 x
4 9 x 20 x
1 2 x 21 x
10 10 30 x
10 3 31
8 20 x 36
7 6 x 1 x
10 21 22
24 32 x 30 x
Hope you understand the marking process. An example for the first row. The 1st number is 12, it does not show up again for the next 10 numbers so it get an x after the number 17 on the next column as by that time that is the 10th spin that 12 has not shown up again. So on, so on.
The strategy needs a bit of time though. My mate waits until there have been 8 x's in a row in one particular row, meaning that there has been 80 spins where 8 different numbers have not shown up again in their corresponding following 10 spins. He then starts the progression betting strategy.
What is your reasoning for this selection process to come up with numbers to play? Since it doesn't have any edge or advantage over playing any other numbers, it seems just to be another "fun" way of selecting numbers.
There's no contradiction. The probability depends on at what point in time you make the prediction.Quote: APEppinkThe probability of tails is 1/2, as always, but the probability of flipping another tail yet, resulting in a string of 18 consecutive tails is hugely improbable << than the (constant) probability of 1/2 for another tail. A seeming contradiction. What gives?
The probability of tails on the *next* flip is 1/2. That's true whether you haven't started flipping yet, or whether you just flipped 17 tails (or 17 heads for that matter).
If you haven't started flipping yet, then the probability of getting 18 tails in a row is extremely low. But that's a completely different scenario compared to flipping 17 times and *then* looking at the odds of the next flip.
My article explains this in more detail.
Man, learn something new every day. Your math presentation is excellent. Never thot of it that way. Never could figure out how to quantify the situation and THERE IT IS!! The probability of past events is one. The obvious never occurred to me.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/fallacy.html
Thx again.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
If you haven't started flipping yet, then the probability of getting 18 tails in a row is extremely low.
Consider 18 yo's in a row. Also extremely low probability!
So low that it never actually happened.Quote: DeMangoConsider 18 yo's in a row. Also extremely low probability!
Quote: APEppinkThat's what's always been odd to me. In independent trials probabilities and hence player expectations are constant. Yet... Say for simplicity you're flipping a coin, paying off at 99.91%. You flip 17 tails consecutively, improbable, but not at all unheard of, and are raking money in accordingly. Each succeeding roll is a conundrum. The probability of tails is 1/2, as always, but the probability of flipping another tail yet, resulting in a string of 18 consecutive tails is hugely improbable << than the (constant) probability of 1/2 for another tail. A seeming contradiction. What gives?
Look at it this way:
Assuming the coin is fair, the probability of 18 heads in a row is (1/2)18 = 1 / 262,144.
However, the probability of 17 heads in a row followed by a tail is (1/2)17 x 1/2 = 1 / 262,144 as well.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: KeyserEvenbob,
Do you have a method/system/strategy for roulette that works in the long run?
You must have me confused with someone else..
link to original post
I haven’t seen any EB posts for quite a while. This one is from ELEVEN years ago.
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm still ahead after 200 hours of playing Bubble Craps and I'm winning more than 2% ahead of my coin-in. It's a total grind at very low stakes so far though. Since I'm getting ripped-off on Rewards points, I'm gonna assume my future casino Win/Loss statement will be a work of fiction, so I won't refer to it.
link to original post
It’s hard for me to entirely read a thread of yours, but is your 200 hours of bubble craps play all at one casino? 2% winning over 200 hours of play is probably not…..
ChumpChange!
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Inflation headline from ZeroHedge today: Housing Affordability Worsens As Homeownership Out Of Reach For Anyone Making Under $100k.
So if I make $10K per month on gambling, maybe I've got a shot at a house, or for what passes for a squalid apartment at inflated city prices pre-pandemic.
