gambler
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August 27th, 2011 at 12:32:11 AM permalink
What was the worst betting system that you have ever come across that someone else swore by and honestly believed in?
AverageJOE
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August 27th, 2011 at 12:35:36 AM permalink
I belive i would say all of them as they are the same with negative expectation - no difference at all.
Is a jungel of variations - but it boils down to the same thing - there is no positive expectaion.
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.
AZDuffman
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August 27th, 2011 at 5:11:50 AM permalink
Quote: gambler

What was the worst betting system that you have ever come across that someone else swore by and honestly believed in?



I'd vote for sitting at 3rd Base in BJ and making the wrong play "so the dealer busts."

AJ is right in that all systems have the same expectation in that it comes down to dollars bet * expected value. But I find this worse since you willingly give up a better play.

The only bigger waste of time is trying to convince someone that plays this way how silly it is.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Nareed
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August 27th, 2011 at 5:23:16 AM permalink
I guess the worst, or at least the most insidious, is the Martingale because it's easy to apply and simple to remember.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
timberjim
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August 27th, 2011 at 5:42:00 AM permalink
I once had an incredible run of luck on a quarter single line slot - No big wins, but continually hitting $50 up to $200. Played it for about an hour and people around me began to watch. When I cashed out, one woman asked me what time my run had started since "they set these to pay out the same time each day"!!!! She wanted to be sure she was on this machine the next day at the "right time".
Flynn
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August 27th, 2011 at 6:07:20 AM permalink
For sure the Martingale (doubling your bet when you've lost). Every gambler will stumble upon it some time. The tricky thing about the Martingale is that it seems to work. The first sessions at roulette where I used this system were always winning ones. You get the feeling that you're invincible. Until the day comes that black hits 15 times in a row and you're run out of money...
My favorite bet: Double Down!
Wizard
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August 27th, 2011 at 7:34:33 AM permalink
All betting systems are equally worthless.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
buzzpaff
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August 27th, 2011 at 7:42:54 AM permalink
Googled worst betting system and found a site saying the Martingale was and it explained why in great detail.
And then it had this to say LOL
Roulette Systems

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Some basic tips that I recommend with Roulette Sniper is to use conservative settings, but increase the low/high numbers by about five points. Depending on what casinos you play at, this may decrease the number of betting opportunities you get but will increase the amount of winnings you get, so it is best to choose a casino where you can disable the animation.

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teddys
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August 27th, 2011 at 8:42:09 AM permalink
Some guy playing craps at the Western who has some weird hedge system involving the Don't Pass, Any Seven, and Crap Checks -- he has the worst betting system in the world.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
gofaster87
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August 27th, 2011 at 9:30:28 AM permalink
.....
DJTeddyBear
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August 27th, 2011 at 9:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: gofaster87

Betting systems are great. The gamblers that use them have the best gambling stories.

Ain't THAT the truth!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
benbakdoff
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August 27th, 2011 at 10:39:24 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Probably some guy playing craps at the Western who has some weird hedge system involving the Don't Pass, Any Seven, and Crap Checks -- he has the worst betting system in the world.



John Patrick?
Wizard
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August 27th, 2011 at 10:49:37 AM permalink
Quote: gofaster87

Betting systems are great.



Another reason is those who use them subsidize the good gamblers. If everyone followed my advice all blackjack would be 6-5 and video poker would never go above 97%.

A little off topic, but sometimes people ask me if I go to the 6-5 tables and try to convince the players of the error of their ways, like a contact evangelist. No. I'm not trying to convert everybody. I will lead a horse to water but I won't attempt to make it drink.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
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August 27th, 2011 at 10:50:18 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

All betting systems are equally worthless.



Just for fun, I wonder if it would be possible to see what would happen if there was a simulation of several system over a long run (1MM hands?) at BJ and compare them to flat-betting.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SanchoPanza
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August 27th, 2011 at 11:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Probably some guy playing craps at the Western who has some weird hedge system involving the Don't Pass, Any Seven, and Crap Checks -- he has the worst betting system in the world.


Quote: benbakdoff

John Patrick?


I can't recall Patrick ever even going near Big Red. Nor for that matter crap checks.
heather
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August 27th, 2011 at 11:23:27 AM permalink
3Dice online casino sometimes has tournaments where you start out with ten dollars tournament money and try to see how much you can win with it. My usual, um, "strategy" is to divide the ten bucks up between the ten longest possible longshot bets in Sic bo. Either the tournament is over for me after one dice shake, or I get to start out with something more substantial than ten bucks. But an absolutely terrible "strategy" odds-wise.
waltomeal
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August 27th, 2011 at 11:59:47 AM permalink
I'll put in another vote for the Martingale, simply because even when it works it's just not much fun. The inevitable big bets induce a lot of stress, and even if they win the feeling is relief more than joy. And all for a 1 unit win.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
buzzpaff
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August 27th, 2011 at 12:05:05 PM permalink
I believe all the truly great systems have been bought by the casinos. Just like the inventions to increase gas mileage are all now
owned by the Oil companies.
RaleighCraps
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August 27th, 2011 at 2:22:19 PM permalink
I think I saw the worst system ever on my last stop in Hollywood Casino in PA.
$10 table min., but the player was obviously short on playing capital.
He would bet Pass and DP on the come out, and then take odds on one side, depending on the number. However, he would hedge that bet with a place or lay bet, so that he stood to either win $1 or lose $1, depending on the outcome.
To make it even worse, the SOB would bet Come and DC as well, so he had chips all over the place, and he stood to win or lose $2.

Needless to say he just suffered a very slow bleed of his very short bankroll
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
EvenBob
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August 27th, 2011 at 3:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

All betting systems are equally worthless.



For most people, this is too broad a statement. They think
it covers strategies and methods also, and it doesn't. A
system is a rigid thing, its mechanical and allows for no
deviation. A strategy or a method is fluid, it can change
with every new outcome.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DJTeddyBear
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August 27th, 2011 at 3:35:07 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Needless to say he just suffered a very slow bleed of his very short bankroll

Maybe not.

If he was getting ranked for his total bet, he might have been running a profit when you add the comp value.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
algle
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August 27th, 2011 at 3:47:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

All betting systems are equally worthless.



I think "equally worthless" might be a tautology.
Something can be either worthless or not worthless, hence "equally" is redundant in this instance.
If nothing will change then I am nothing.
TheNightfly
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August 27th, 2011 at 5:11:29 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

For most people, this is too broad a statement. They think
it covers strategies and methods also, and it doesn't. A
system is a rigid thing, its mechanical and allows for no
deviation. A strategy or a method is fluid, it can change
with every new outcome.

The worst betting systems are the ones that are called "strategies" or "methods" by those who use them. They somehow think their system is so good that it doesn't deserve the name "system" as that has certain negative connotations which do not apply to their so called method or strategy. They somehow have convinced themselves that their method or strategy is better than a system because they have some control over the outcome where a system player could not possibly have such control. Utter balderdash... but it's fun to watch them argue the point.
Happiness is underrated
kmcd
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September 4th, 2011 at 1:48:30 PM permalink
The worst betting system is whatever forces you to provide the most "action". Probably some Martingale on steroids, where you triple your bet instead of double it or something.
kmcd
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September 4th, 2011 at 1:53:58 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I believe all the truly great systems have been bought by the casinos. Just like the inventions to increase gas mileage are all now
owned by the Oil companies.



Yes, owning a business where people play a game with the odds naturally in your favor is a fantastic system; the casinos have an oligopoly over it! So you're certainly right, although I question the plural on "systems". This is the ONLY system that they own.
EvenBob
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September 4th, 2011 at 2:54:34 PM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly

The worst betting systems are the ones that are called "strategies" or "methods" by those who use them. They somehow think their system is so good that it doesn't deserve the name "system" as that has certain negative connotations which do not apply to their so called method or strategy.



Not true. A system implies rigidity, you always take the same
action in every circumstance, there's no room for movement.
A pro golfer doesn't use a system, he uses a method. Its fluid
and allows for tweaking on every shot. A good gambling method
does the same thing, allows for tweaking on every bet. Its very
difficult to play this way, most people prefer a system that tells
them what to do on every play, like in BJ. Thats why BJ is popular,
you can drink, play for hours, and never have to think once. All
your bets are already decided for you. For non counters, that is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TheNightfly
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September 4th, 2011 at 3:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Not true. A system implies rigidity, you always take the same
action in every circumstance, there's no room for movement.
A pro golfer doesn't use a system, he uses a method. Its fluid
and allows for tweaking on every shot. A good gambling method
does the same thing, allows for tweaking on every bet. Its very
difficult to play this way, most people prefer a system that tells
them what to do on every play, like in BJ. Thats why BJ is popular,
you can drink, play for hours, and never have to think once. All
your bets are already decided for you. For non counters, that is.

Nice effort Bob but once again it's a failure.

According to Dictionary.com (and you may feel free to select any dictionary you choose as a source) -

System: any formulated, regular, or special method or plan of procedure: a system of marking, numbering, or measuring; a winning system at bridge.
Method: a procedure, technique, or way of doing something, especially in accordance with a definite plan: There are three possible methods of repairing this motor.

Notice the similarities? Notice that nowhere is it suggested that a method differs from a system in that it opens the door to "tweaking"? That's not to suggest that one may not tweak while using a system or method however, the fact that you say they two are different does not make it so. Further, what is it in gambling against a house edge that makes tweaking with a method better in any way than following a rigid system? Are you suggesting that past results on a roulette wheel have an effect on future outcomes? Exactly what sort of tweaking is done that makes anyone's method better than someone else's system.

You see Bob, you and mrjjj can talk all you want about how a method is better than or different from a system but the facts and the math say otherwise. Neither can overcome a house edge in the long run and both are equally as (in)effective.
Happiness is underrated
EvenBob
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September 4th, 2011 at 3:29:48 PM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly



Notice the similarities? Notice that nowhere is it suggested that a method differs from a system in that it opens the door to "tweaking"?



Its all in the implication. A system implies rigidity, a method or
a strategy implies fluidity. You would never call playing BJ strictly
by the rules a 'method', its most definitely a system and has no
room for tweaking at all. In fact, try and tweak it at the table
and half the players will climb down your throat. The problem
with gambling is, people look at it in black and white, they only
see what the math tells them to see. They're very much like
sheep in that regard.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TheNightfly
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September 4th, 2011 at 4:08:29 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its all in the implication. A system implies rigidity, a method or
a strategy implies fluidity. You would never call playing BJ strictly
by the rules a 'method', its most definitely a system and has no
room for tweaking at all. In fact, try and tweak it at the table
and half the players will climb down your throat. The problem
with gambling is, people look at it in black and white, they only
see what the math tells them to see. They're very much like
sheep in that regard.

Method: a procedure, technique, or way of doing something, especially in accordance with a definite plan: There are three possible methods of repairing this motor.

I'm not sure where the idea that
Quote: EvenBob

...a method or a strategy implies fluidity.


is implied based upon the definition of the word, but let's suppose that it does imply fluidity. How does that make any difference to how one plays a game with a negative expectation? Every wager on the layout will still have the same -EV and combining any number of those wagers in any way you choose does not alter this fact at all. So, how is a method any better than a system?
Happiness is underrated
EvenBob
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September 4th, 2011 at 5:01:12 PM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly

How does that make any difference to how one plays a game with a negative expectation?



I wouldn't know, the game I play doesn't have a
NE. I only play games I can win at. In any event,
its not worth arguing about. I no longer talk about
what I do, so we can drop it right here. I'm dropping
it anyway....
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MarkAbe
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September 4th, 2011 at 5:07:37 PM permalink
I move we proceed to simply discuss the worst way to bet, whatever anybody wants to call it.Hopefully, most of us should at least agree that if it ignores true EV it will be bad.
EvenBob
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September 5th, 2011 at 3:13:25 PM permalink
Quote: MarkAbe

I move we proceed to simply discuss the worst way to bet,



If you must use a system, use one that lets you
lose the slowest. Find a system that just about
breaks even.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
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September 5th, 2011 at 3:26:04 PM permalink
Quote: MarkAbe

I move we proceed to simply discuss the worst way to bet, whatever anybody wants to call it.Hopefully, most of us should at least agree that if it ignores true EV it will be bad.


In that case, the worst way to bet would be something along the lines of "covering all 38 inside-number spots on the roulette table with the same amount of money" or "$32 pass, $32 don't pass, $1 12" or "$50 banker, $50 player and $5 tie". All of those have a guaranteed loss on every play, and you can't do worse than "always losing". Beyond that it's just a matter of degree.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
EvenBob
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September 5th, 2011 at 3:44:08 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

In that case, the worst way to bet would be something along the lines of "covering all 38 inside-number spots on the roulette table with the same amount of money"



If thats the worst way, whats the best way? If you can find a way
thats as close to breaking even as possible, you'll be up just as
often as you're down, and close to the middle most of the time.
Can you stay slightly ahead of it by quitting when you've won?
Thats assuming you're up as often as you're down.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
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September 5th, 2011 at 4:22:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If thats the worst way, whats the best way? If you can find a way
thats as close to breaking even as possible, you'll be up just as
often as you're down, and close to the middle most of the time.
Can you stay slightly ahead of it by quitting when you've won?
Thats assuming you're up as often as you're down.


You didn't quite read what I wrote. If you put $1 on each of the 38 inside numbers on a roulette layout, it doesn't matter where the ball drops. You lose $2 every spin.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
EvenBob
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September 5th, 2011 at 4:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You lose $2 every spin.



Of course. Thats why I said whats the best way. Playing
close to even and quitting when ahead, would it work.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FinsRule
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September 5th, 2011 at 9:18:36 PM permalink
The worst betting system I could think of is doubling after a win until you lose. You'd have to go to a casino that "accepts all bets"
boymimbo
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September 5th, 2011 at 10:54:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Another reason is those who use them subsidize the good gamblers. If everyone followed my advice all blackjack would be 6-5 and video poker would never go above 97%.



True. My local casino just installed a bunch of $.02 multistrike poker machines at 99.92% for deuces wild (over 100% with the players card at .25%) which I was pounding earlier tonight. People don't understand how to play these games at all and the returns for their strategy errors must account for 2-3% (at least). When you are playing the 1x and the 2x levels, you need to change your strategy to get to the higher levels, meaning you should be going for hands for more frequency (for example, keeping a single pair rather than two pair in deuces wild even though the full house pays better) rather than more pay.

I see folks making dumb plays all of the time on these machines.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
heather
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September 29th, 2011 at 10:19:36 AM permalink
A few months ago, I saw a movie from the mid-1970s where a character was talking about betting systems, and mentioned having tried "the anti-Martingale, the contra-d'Alembert, and the Biarritz" without success. Never having heard of the Biarritz, I Googled it. It is an older Roulette system where you purposely bet the coldest numbers on the wheel under the classic Gambler's Fallacy delusion that they are "due".

We were recently discussing Dr. Allan Wilson's 1950s research into Roulette bias play in another thread. As Dr. Wilson noted in his book "The Casino Gambler's Guide" (which I recommend if you can find a copy), if a Roulette number hasn't hit in a while, there could be a physical or mechanical reason why. Sometimes cold numbers are cold for a reason. He gave the example of a wheel at Harold's Club in Reno where one fret was taller than the others (being a replacement lifted from a different wheel), where the pocket before the fret was much hotter than it statistically should have been, and the pocket after the fret was much colder than normal. (Incidentally, FWIW, management realized what Wilson and his associates were doing and the owner personally shut them down mid-spin.)

So I vote for the Biarritz as the worst system I can think of. I'm a little embarrassed that I didn't think of it sooner.
buzzpaff
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September 29th, 2011 at 10:53:14 AM permalink
So I vote for the Biarritz as the worst system I can think of. I'm a little embarrassed that I didn't think of it sooner.

So the worst system you can come up with is betting a flat rate on a single number at a roulette wheel ? You are making John Patrick look like a genius !
heather
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September 29th, 2011 at 10:58:26 AM permalink
Dunno, deliberately seeking out numbers that are hitting at less than 1 in 38 spins (and might have a physical or mechanical reason for doing so) and hoping for a 35:1 payout just sounds awful to me. Really, it's just the Gambler's Fallacy with a European-sounding name attached.
Ericayne
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September 29th, 2011 at 12:19:22 PM permalink
I have been playing craps for over 20+ years (*cough*), and in my experience, there is ONE betting "system" that has caused more players to lose more money than ALL OTHER BETTING SYSTEMS COMBINED......would you like to guess what "system" that is????

The answer is: PASSLINE BET W/ FULL (ALLOWABLE) ODDS AND/OR ANY COMBINATION OF PLACE/COME BETS THAT FOLLOW.

I find it highly amusing how Passline / odds players don't see themselves as "System/Method/Strategy" players....or superior to other methods. WAKE UP PEOPLE! You're a system player just like everyone else!! There's nothing wrong with following a particular method/strategy/system....INCLUDING passline bets with full odds! All methods have strengths and weaknesses....some more or less than others. It's all good....what matters most is if you had a good time while losing (or winning) your chips.

But I agree with EvenBob.....don't get pigeon-holed into betting a certain way all the time. Knowing multiple methods of play can only benefit your game...not hurt it.
dm
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September 29th, 2011 at 2:34:06 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I believe all the truly great systems have been bought by the casinos. Just like the inventions to increase gas mileage are all now
owned by the Oil companies.



Wrong. I bought all the truly great systems, and I'm not out a cent.
EvenBob
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September 29th, 2011 at 3:12:45 PM permalink
Quote: heather



So I vote for the Biarritz as the worst system I can think of. I'm a little embarrassed that I didn't think of it sooner.



Supposedly there can be no worst system in roulette, because there
is no best system. All roulette systems are equal. Supposedly.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Doc
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September 29th, 2011 at 3:53:31 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Supposedly there can be no worst system in roulette, because there
is no best system. All roulette systems are equal. Supposedly.


The fact that there is no good/better/best system does not mean that there isn't a worst system. For example, I consider a strategy of betting equally on all 38 numbers and progressively increasing all bets to be something approaching a worst system for roulette. No chance of ever winning anything at all on any roll, no chance of ever breaking even on any roll, and progressively losing at higher and higher rates -- sounds like a pretty bleak prospectus to me. Certainly worse than some other strategies I have heard where variance offers at least some possibility of coming out ahead.
boymimbo
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September 29th, 2011 at 3:56:49 PM permalink
Mrjjj would be proud of the Biarritz. Or is he statman?

But seriously, if a wheel does have any bias on it whatsoever, you would bet on the hot numbers. This has got to be better than the reverse. However, I really, really doubt that any wheel exhibits a bias that can overcome the inherant 5.26% HA vs randomness.
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rxwine
rxwine
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September 29th, 2011 at 4:22:16 PM permalink
Worst betting system.

Betting that the chamber doesn't have a bullet?

I think that even meets a betting system people swear by, as there is probably swearing involved.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
rxwine
rxwine
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September 29th, 2011 at 4:23:36 PM permalink
I guess there is no system though...

nevermind.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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September 29th, 2011 at 6:15:37 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

The fact that there is no good/better/best system does not mean that there isn't a worst system. For example, I consider a strategy of betting equally on all 38 numbers and progressively increasing all bets to be something approaching a worst system for roulette.



So if you can purposely lose in roulette, you should
be able to purposely win. Right?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TheNightfly
TheNightfly
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September 29th, 2011 at 6:45:19 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you can purposely lose in roulette, you should
be able to purposely win. Right?

Wrong.
Happiness is underrated
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