Three card poker-do i have the edge??

Hi, The game is three card poker. I know a casino where you can play one on one with the dealer in my mind i cannot help but think that i am infact the favourite over an extended peroid of time...these are the facts regarding the table
-dealer must have q-8 to qualify
-high card pays! 1-1 flush 1-1 straight 4-1 three of a kind 30-1 and im not worried about the rest
-cards are shuffled by hand no machines in operation...

my thoughts are if i play one on one only ante/bet every hand no matter what it is i have the edge over an extended period of time ...would this be correct??? can someone give me some mathematical feedback on this so i can go and destroy this casino :p your reply is much appreciated...thanks

No. The house edge applies no matter how many hands are out on 3CP.

Im not sure, but I think The qualifying hand only helps the house.

Math guys, over to you.

Quote: Croupier

Im not sure, but I think The qualifying hand only helps the house.

Yes, it does. They save paying the ante bet on the dealer's very worst hands.

Quote: 3cardpoker

my thoughts are if i play one on one only ante/bet every hand no matter what it is i have the edge over an extended period of time ...would this be correct???

I don't think so. Playing 1 on 1, you should have exactly the stated house edge (usually about 3.5%) working against you. There are really only 3 ways to dent/reverse the house edge in three card poker:

1. find a dealer who will show you their bottom card by accident when they deal, and use the info to decide whether or not to make the play bet.
2. find a full table where everyone will share information about their hands, and use the info to decide whether or not to make the play bet.
3. find a table with a progressive side bet. On a $5 table, there's a player advantage if the $1 sidebet has a jackpot of about $12,500 or more. At the card-clubs near me, this happens for about 1 week per year.

what are the odds heads up of the dealer qualifying with the q-8 ?? is it around the 40-45 % mark???

Quote: 3cardpoker

i would of thought that being only heads up and using only 6 cards from the deck that the odds are around 45% of the time the dealer will not even qualify??? then forced to pay the ante and the other 55 % we are a 50/50 chance each that would mean the odds are in my favour?? i dont know im still looking into it...

I think it's the order of operations that gets you:

If you have Q/6/3 or less, you should fold. When you fold, you lose 1 unit. If you folded and the dealer has q/8 or less, you still lose the 1 unit. So you're a loser on the times when both of you have bad hands.

It sounds like you're thinking of remedying that by playing every hand no matter what. The result of that playing strategy is that you lose 2 units when you have a bad hand and the dealer has a good hand, but win 1 unit when both of you have bad hands. The dealer qualifies more often than not, so you net-lose here, too. (and more severely than under the above strategy)

Here is the Wizard's analysis of the game, which might be a good place to start your additional research.

Okay i see your point...i did this for about 3 hours at this casino and a eventually doubled my money it might of been a case of luck ...i then did it at home over 300 hands and also made a profit of around 25 % i cannot get my head around the mathes if the dealer folds like 40-45% of the time and ante is payed the other 55% i'd only need to win 25% of them time i think im getting myself confused with the percentages lol can someone put it in percentage for me?? im just an amatuer

. The dealer qualifies more often than not, so you net-lose here, too. (and more severely than under the above strategy)


how when its heads up and he needs a Q + 8 or better???? in my thinking the dealer will only qualify 40%-45% of the time given theres only 12 cards ?

3card- you MUST know the casinos have not put in a game where you just sit, bet every hand, and have an edge over the casino!!! If you cannot understand that there is no difference to you, if you choose to play every hand, what other players cards are, then you need to learn some basic statistics. A previous poster gave you the link to the Wiz's analysis. Start there.....

Quote: 3cardpoker

in my thinking the dealer will only qualify 40%-45% of the time given theres only 12 cards ?

There are 12 out of 52 cards that will result in the dealer qualifying. The dealer has 3 draws to get one of those cards. (12/52)+(12/51)+(12/50)=70.6%. I know that discounts the exact q/8 requirements in your game, but it's a pretty good approximation of the odds of the dealer getting at least one high card.

Quote: rdw4potus

The result of that playing strategy is that you lose 2 units when you have a bad hand and the dealer has a good hand, but win 1 unit when both of you have bad hands.

I am bit confused about this though.
If we fold ---> we lose 1 unit
If we call and lose ---> we lose 2 units (1+1)
If we call and dealer does not qualify ---> we win 1 unit and we also get back the original unit that would be lost if we fold.

My point is that the first unit is already in the middle and we cannot take it back, so when we come to decision on whether to place the second unit or not we have 2-1 immediate odds as if dealer does not qualify, not only we get back out ante, but we also win another unit from the dealer.

And when the dealer does qualify we can still win if we have the best hand.

Does anyone know the % of the dealer qualifying, considering not only the 12 high cards (As, Ks, Qs), but also pairs/straights/flushes? I think if we know that and then we know how a totally random hand performs against a random hand that qualifies, then we can run some equity calculations....

Dealer does not qualify is about 20%, dealer win (or player fold) is about 55%, player win is about 25%. There's a table, and a very good mathematical analysis here.