Need a lawyer / escrow agent for betting system challenge

After 17 years, it appears I have my first challenger for the Betting System Challenge.

I'm posting to see if any of the lawyers on this forum would be interested in acting as an escrow agent for the contest. I've contacted a number of local lawyers but none is interested, probably because the case is too small, or it just seems weird to them.

The gist is that both contestants (me being one of them) deposits their entry fee with the escrow agent, then the escrow agent pays out to whichever party wins the contest.

Why would you need a lawyer? Dozens of escrow services are much cheaper.

Am I overlooking the part of your challenge which accounts for the fact that there are intrinsically +EV games available in Vegas?

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Am I overlooking the part of your challenge which accounts for the fact that there are intrinsically +EV games available in Vegas?
link to original post

Rule 1c: "Your goal in the contest is to supply a betting system that beats a game of roulette, baccarat, or craps, as the player, using common Vegas rules..."
4: "Similarly, any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed..." "...as are card-counting systems."

I was thinking of FPDW, but that's eliminated by 1c, then the Dragon 7/Panda 8, but that's a counting system and nixed by 4. Do I need to keep thinking, or was your idea eliminated by those two rules too?

Quote: Venthus

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Am I overlooking the part of your challenge which accounts for the fact that there are intrinsically +EV games available in Vegas?
link to original post

Rule 1c: "Your goal in the contest is to supply a betting system that beats a game of roulette, baccarat, or craps, as the player, using common Vegas rules..."
4: "Similarly, any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed..." "...as are card-counting systems."

I was thinking of FPDW, but that's eliminated by 1c, then the Dragon 7/Panda 8, but that's a counting system and nixed by 4. Do I need to keep thinking, or was your idea eliminated by those two rules too?
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I was thinking about FPDB at 100.07%, but I see that only 3 games are allowed. Must have gotten confused because card counting was mentioned but blackjack wasn't, while almost all card counting, and most betting systems I'm aware of target blackjack.

This is pretty cool because despite the fact that this challenge is not supposed to be about finding vulnerabilities in the challenge itself, this site has a high population of people who do exactly that, where betting is concerned, and I would bet that most people reading it went right to trying to game the challenge. I don't think the Bluejay wants to take money from someone who just has a progression system he uses for himself for his own reasons so it only applies to systems that are for sale. So it's like the Amazing Kreskin vs. the Amazing Randi.

This part intrigues me too: "...any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed..."

So, there might be betting systems that can be employed by a very unusual person to get an advantage? Tell me more! For usually when you're not allowed to do something, there's something good about it.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

This is pretty cool because despite the fact that this challenge is not supposed to be about finding vulnerabilities in the challenge itself, this site has a high population of people who do exactly that, where betting is concerned, and I would bet that most people reading it went right to trying to game the challenge. I don't think the Bluejay wants to take money from someone who just has a progression system he uses for himself for his own reasons so it only applies to systems that are for sale. So it's like the Amazing Kreskin vs. the Amazing Randi.

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Yes exactly!

I thought I had it too, until I got to the $5 min bet and $5,000 max bet.

How many steps does the martingale need to have in order to have at least a 10% chance to be ahead after 200,000 hands . . .

Quote: unJon

How many steps does the martingale need to have in order to have at least a 10% chance to be ahead after 200,000 hands . . .
link to original post

Some quick number crunching shows that, if there is no limit to the bankroll, 14 rounds in single-zero roulette, and 12 rounds on the pass line (without odds) in craps

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MBJ - I commend you for your efforts

but I doubt it will change the perception of so many people who believe these bogus systems can be profitable in the long run

they believe this even though not a single one has ever been proven to have value

it's really quite stunning - not so much here, but on other gambling sites there are dozens of people claiming that they have winning systems and hundreds of people responding to them indicating that they likely believe the systems are valid

I can't think of anything like this in any other area of life - where so many are so willing to believe what is so obviously unbelievable

Edit - I liked this part of your challenge - Section 3 - Part D:

"Roulette can be single- or double-zero"

would there actually be someone stupid enough to choose a double zero wheel_______?________________:)

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I'll address all the above, but let me reiterate: I need an attorney to handle escrow, for a current challenger. I don't think the attorney needs to be licensed in my state (or the challenger's) since they're not providing representation or legal advice, they're just facilitating a transaction. What attorneys here are up for it, or can someone suggest one? I know mdawg is a lawyer, I'll PM him if I don't get any replies here.

To address the comments:

The Wizard offered his own challenge years ago. When he ended it circa 2008, I picked up where he left off, because I wanted the challenge to be available. My ruleset is pretty different from his; he did a single session of a billion rounds, with no bankroll limits. I do a $5000 starting bankroll, tests of only 200,000 rounds each, and we do 20 of those tests.

We've discussed the challenge rules on this forum quite a bit, mostly in a big thread in 2010 (time flies!). At that time, a number of members were very helpful in helping me revise the challenge rules and identifying potential exploits, including weaselman, ThatDonGuy, MathExtremist, SOOPOO, Ayacarumba, and Doc. Apologies to anyone I missed.

Since some of you are now trying to find exploits, note that I offer a $1000 prize to anyone who finds a successful exploit. Unlike the challenge, you don't have to put up any of your own money, you just have to program your idea first (so I'm not on the hook for programming a gazillion people's random ideas of what might work). In that old thread, weaselman identified an exploit against my proposed edits to the challenge rules and won the $1000, but he graciously declined the prize. I subsequently edited the rules some more to be impervious against his exploit.

The exploit-finding prize isn't available to anyone I've blocked, since I won't see their posts.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

This part intrigues me too: "...any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed..."

This is a holdover from my original ruleset, which mirrored the Wizards, which was for a single session of a billion spins, no bankroll limit, probably no or generous table limit (I forget exactly), and open to everyone (not just system sellers). Someone submitted a system to try to exploit the rules, I don't remember the details exactly, maybe card-counting with baccarat just enough to get close to an even game, and then on the billionth spin bet just enough to be in the black if they won. In the real world, no one can track a billion spins. While the revised rules should eliminate that kind of nonsense ($5000 bankroll, table limits, no card-counting) and in theory I don't need to keep the pencil-and-paper rule any more, I'm still inclined to keep it just because I have a low tolerance for bullsh!t.

And again, my point in starting this thread is to find a lawyer who can handle escrow.

I noticed this thread but going to be traveling out of the country for a while shortly. If you still need someone next month, maybe I can help.

I'm not a lawyer, but I volunteer to escrow the funds. If you must have a lawyer, you can try Jon Muskin. I have his number if you need it. If he says "no," I have another friend who is a lawyer, but he probably would ask for a modest service fee.

Thank you Wiz, I appreciate the offer, but I think the escrow agent should be an entirely neutral third party, whom I have no prior association with. That would exclude you and Jon Muskin. I'm expecting to pay a fee to whomever the challenger and I select, so I'll be happy to accept your referral if you think your other lawyer friend might be interested.

It doesn't have to be a lawyer, it can be an escrow service, but most escrow services deal with only real estate or domain names, I haven't found one willing to handle this contest. There is probably also some kind of licensed/bonded business services provider which would be appropriate that I'm not thinking of.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Thank you Wiz, I appreciate the offer, but I think the escrow agent should be an entirely neutral third party, whom I have no prior association with. That would exclude you and Jon Muskin. I'm expecting to pay a fee to whomever the challenger and I select, so I'll be happy to accept your referral if you think your other lawyer friend might be interested.

It doesn't have to be a lawyer, it can be an escrow service, but most escrow services deal with only real estate or domain names, I haven't found one willing to handle this contest. There is probably also some kind of licensed/bonded business services provider which would be appropriate that I'm not thinking of.
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That is incorrect. There are many escrow agents set up for art and collectible sales and exchanges, and we recently used one to flip a car I bought in Minnesota and sold sight unseen to a guy in Colorado.

Let me know if you want me to ask my friend Brandon about it. He is a personal attorney lawyer in Vegas.

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re part 3 Section C which states this:

"The table limits are $5 minimum and $5000 maximum, except $25 minimum for single-zero roulette"

that doesn't seem right or necessary to me since the house edge at single zero roulette is almost double that of the pass line or don't pass at craps and way higher than placing the 6 or 8 at craps

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Quote: MichaelBluejay

I'll address all the above, but let me reiterate: I need an attorney to handle escrow, for a current challenger. I don't think the attorney needs to be licensed in my state (or the challenger's) since they're not providing representation or legal advice, they're just facilitating a transaction. What attorneys here are up for it, or can someone suggest one? I know mdawg is a lawyer, I'll PM him if I don't get any replies here....

Yes also consider that anyone adjudicating this would need to personally understand: all the language in your challenge, the betting system being tested, your code and whether or not the output actually proves the betting system passes or fails the challenge. We take this knowledge for granted but the average person with no experience with gaming and gaming math would have no clue. You're going to be claiming this guy's system is BS and the system seller is going to claim your analysis is BS. So they would have to in turn contract with someone like the Wizard as a technical advisor.

I tried my home game with the 3 virtual players at the BJ table who seemed to be betting as card counters. They would bet 1 unit for true counts of 0 and below, and add 1 unit for each unit above a 0 true count. If the true count was +4, they would bet $50 at a $10 table or $125 at a $25 table or $500 at a $100 table. Their bankrolls were similarly large at 1,000 base bets. For the $5 table it was $5K; for the $10 table it was $10K; for the $25 table it was $25K; and for the $100 table it was $100K. It was not unusual to lose 75 units or more in a session. Trying to recover with higher bets and losing all your hands at those higher bets really backfires badly.

Quote: lilredrooster

.re part 3 Section C which states this:

"The table limits are $5 minimum and $5000 maximum, except $25 minimum for single-zero roulette"

that doesn't seem right or necessary to me... link to original post

There are no $5 single-zero tables in Vegas. Remember, the point is that a challenger should be able to win *in a real Vegas casino*, not with some mythical, hypothetical game.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Yes also consider that anyone adjudicating this would need to personally understand...your code and whether or not the output actually proves the betting system passes or fails the challenge.

The escrow agent doesn't need to understand the code. If there's a dispute, then the parties go to an arbiter, as per the Challenge terms (and the *arbiter* would need to either understand the code or rely on expert witnesses).

And again, a reminder that the point of this thread is to get help finding an attorney or other suitable escrow agent.

Quote: Wizard

Let me know if you want me to ask my friend Brandon about it. He is a personal attorney lawyer in Vegas. link to original post

Sure! Or you could just tell me his whole name and I could look him up.

Quote: MDawg

I noticed this thread but going to be traveling out of the country for a while shortly. If you still need someone next month, maybe I can help.
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Oh man, how very unfortunate and inconvenient timming.

Just letting everyone know, the challenger backed out. (He objected to the $5000 initial bankroll rule, since he wanted to be able to potentially bet $5000 on each of the Place numbers in craps.) The rules were plainly stated. I ought to just reject applicants with AOL addresses on sight.

Incidentally, he also didn't meet my criterion that the system has to be for sale, but I made an exception for two reasons. First, when I suggested he hire a programmer on Fiverr to see whether his system actually works (something also suggested strongly in my Betting System Challenge article), he replied, "I know that my system works, why would I pay someone to tell me what I already know."

Second, he goaded and taunted me about not accepting his challenge. So fine, I obliged. But with the AOL address, I more than half expected this result.

I'll still take recommendations for an escrow agent for next time, and I remind everyone of the $1000 prize for anyone who can identify an exploit.

I don't mind disclosing my end of the private conversation we just had, where as we were discussing the possibility of my undertaking the matter, I asked you - And how far along is this matter, is it a done deal, or just a proposed "wager."

Anyway, the issue for any attorney on something like this is that he could end up in a situation where he is drawn into deciding on what happens to the escrow funds, thereby having to expend time on a matter where he isn't representing either party. Or, just to avoid that, have to draw up agreements absolving him of any liability or responsibility for arbitrating, which preparing those agreements alone might take more time than it is worth for something like that.

A layman like Wizard would be best for this, he would have no state bar rule created requirement to represent the interests of any particular party, or to act in any certain way. Just give him a general release of liability and let him be the judge. Of course, I can understand why the other party might want an attorney involved, he would assume that an attorney would be concerned enough about state bar type repercussions to be fair. But anyone who knows the Wizard knows he would be fair too without having a licensing board's rules over his head.

Who pays the escrow fees if two people each put up $1,000?

MDawg, I replied to the email address you gave me addressing all this.

As I explained (and the challenge terms state), the Escrow Agent has no obligation to act as a judge. In the event the parties disagree as to who won, they go to arbitration.

I agree that the Wizard would be a fair Escrow Agent, but as I explained above, it's better if neither party has a prior relationship with the agent, to avoid any hint of conflict/bias, and my relationship with the Wiz goes back 25 years now. Even though the agent is not a judge, I sure wouldn't want an agent who has extensive history with the challenger.

The users whom I won't see replies from are AxelWolf, billryan.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Just letting everyone know, the challenger backed out.
link to original post

No surprise to me. I wasted many hours on challengers that backed out at the last minute. For future challengers, I think an escrow service would be more appropriate. Attorneys are obligated to serve the side paying them.

The point is that an attorney would act as an escrow agent. No attorney-client relationship would be created, and both sides would be paying them anyway (splitting the fee). The reason to use an attorney as an escrow agent is that they're highly regulated and must be honest in order to protect their license. With others, I risk them just running off with my $30k.

I was unable to locate an escrow service that would handle this job. For that matter, I was unable to find an attorney, either. MDawg said he'd consider it (and props to him for being the only lawyer I contacted who would), but he said he couldn't even think about it for a few weeks since he has other things on his plate right now.

I'm toying with making the following changes to the challenge, when I have time:

(1) Re-opening it to the general public, not just system sellers.

(2) Dramatically lowering the number of rounds per test from 200,000 to 2000. (Overcomes the objection from the math-challenged that "A system could work in the real world, but a 200,000-round test is not the real world, because nobody plays that many rounds.)

(3) Requiring the system to show a profit in ≥51 of 100 tests, instead of ≥11 of 20. That balances the fact that it's pretty easy to devise a system that will win a 2000-round test >10% of the time.

No $1000 prize offered for this new ruleset yet, I need to test it myself.

Also, I need to find an attorney or other suitable escrow agent so I'll be ready to go if and when I get a new challenger.

Regarding your betting challenge…

Can the player choose the wheel?
Can the player use visual ballistics or exploit bias?
Can the challenge take place on an E roulette game without a dealer, so that more bets per hour can be discretely placed?

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, is it?

Or spelling.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, is it?

Or spelling.
link to original post

This is probably the real reason the guy backed out. You have a tendency to condescension.

A good salesman knows he has to explain the product ad nauseum even if the details are spelled out. A great salesman even relishes the repeated sales pitch

A lousy salesman wants to just put up some written language and expect the public to read without interchange.

And yes I know you can't and won't read this because you blocked me. You don't like hearing things like this. So you will continue to make the same mistakes.

You might as well cancel your system challenge.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, is it?

Or spelling.
link to original post

This is probably the real reason the guy backed out. You have a tendency to condescension.

A good salesman knows he has to explain the product ad nauseum even if the details are spelled out. A great salesman even relishes the repeated sales pitch

A lousy salesman wants to just put up some written language and expect the public to read without interchange.

And yes I know you can't and won't read this because you blocked me. You don't like hearing things like this. So you will continue to make the same mistakes.

You might as well cancel your system challenge.
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Well said. I got a condescending reply from him to my post that the lottery is a bad bet.

No one is going to bother challenging him with his poor attitude. Some guy has an AOL address, that's why he's such a jerk, blah blah blah.

I have been interacting with MichaelBluejay on this matter and found him to be nothing but professional.

At worst he is making this more difficult than need be, but I haven't had any problems dealing with him.

Quote: MDawg

I have been interacting with MichaelBluejay on this matter and found him to be nothing but professional.

At worst he is making this more difficult than need be, but I haven't had any problems dealing with him.
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I don't doubt that but his reply above is without doubt evidence of his condescending attitude.

Even small things like eating at a restaurant. You go up to the cashier at a McDonald's and ask how much for a big Mac meal and the cashier replies you have reading comprehension issues because the digital sign above her lists all the prices. Guess who won't last long at her cashier job. Even if she is technically correct it's not how you treat people you want to do business with.