Martin
Martin
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
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January 1st, 2011 at 10:40:11 AM permalink
I will take this opportunity to apologize to anyone whom I may have offended by my unfortunate outburst.

I am neither ignorant nor unstudied in the ways of the various games discussed on this site. I have been gambling since my penny-ante days in the hunting camps during deer season. I was 12 years old then and am 67 years old now. Let's just say I've shot a lot of deer, won a lot of pennies, and played a lot of just about everything. Let us also say that I do not suffer fools graciously.

As far as gambling is concerned I am a student of chaos, volatility and risk. I realized a long time ago, maybe before many of you were born, that results in gambling (and just about everything else) were non-linear. For example I win almost always when I play poker but most of my winnings come from two or three hands out of the dozens of hands that are played during the session. I don't know when those hands are going to occur - I just know that I had better be ready to play them when they do. I.E. with no fear.

Bottom line - I'm very good at poker - I hate sitting at a table for hours waiting for the hands. But if you think about it rationally - 'sitting at a table waiting for the hand' is just as much a "system" as any other that has ever been proposed. And I've watched Doyle Brunson and many others play that "system" for years - so don't tell me that "systems" don't work - I know from personal experience and watching Doyle Brunson that they do. If "catching a wave and riding it" is good enough for Doyle then it's good enough for me.

I'm sure that will stimulate heated discussion - I won't partake.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 1st, 2011 at 10:49:31 AM permalink
Martin, no one here would say that no system can work. What they will say is that no system can work at beating a negative EV game. Poker, given the varied abilities of the other players, may be a positive EV game for some. And the poker 'systems' would not qualify as a true 'system'. A true system would need to be defined, like, if x happens, then I do y. If z happens, then I do v. Etc. Given the gazillion possibilities in poker, you would not reasonably be able to define a true 'system'.
Nareed
Nareed
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January 1st, 2011 at 11:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Martin, no one here would say that no system can work. What they will say is that no system can work at beating a negative EV game. Poker, given the varied abilities of the other players, may be a positive EV game for some.



I'd say that poker, as a competition between players, is a game of skill as much as a game of chance. I used to play with friends frequently, and I rarely lost. I could tell, mostly, when they were bluffing and I could fool them into thinking I was bluffing. one time I said "I've three aces," and they still raised my bets. I did have three aces, BTW, and I won that hand.

Pity we played for peanuts...

Anyway, with a group of friends one knows very well, such things are easy. I lost sometimes when I didn't get any decent hands. I mean, you can beat a set with a pair of deuces, but not all the time. So of course random factors affect the outcome, but they don't determine it.

Now imagine poker were played like 3 card poker. Say you get dealt three cards and can either raise or fold only your ante, but you can't raise another player's bet, only the player with the best hand takes the pot. Then we'd be playing by dumb luck, and skill wouldn't even enter into the picture. In that kind of game a system would not help you, though I've no idea what the EV would be for a table of, say, 8 players.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Mosca
Mosca
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January 1st, 2011 at 11:54:05 AM permalink
Poker is the ultimate non-system gambling game. If you played a system, your opponents would figure it out and beat you over the head with it. Poker is a people game, not a system game.
NO KILL I
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 1st, 2011 at 1:14:59 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

I have been gambling since my penny-ante days in the hunting camps during deer season. I was 12 years old then and am 67 years old now.

I'm sure we will continue to benefit from your knowledge.

>As far as gambling is concerned I am a student of chaos, volatility and risk.
Sounds good. Certainly sounds relevant.
>results in gambling were non-linear.
I would agree with that. As I guess would anyone playing a slot machine, tracking a roulette wheel, etc.
>when I play poker most of my winnings come from two or three hands out of the dozens that are played during the session.
I know little of poker but have heard People Game Played With Cards, Card Game Played by People, Loose, Tight, Card Dead, etc.
Since style of play varies and composition of tables varies and abilities vary, I don't know if poker is a process much less a linear one.

>I don't know when those hands are going to occur
Well, if you did know, so too would the other players which would make things a bit useless.

> Play with no fear.
I've heard of someone who not only Bet in the Dark but announced he was doing it. Then after the flop had revealed two aces and he had looked at his hand which held two aces, he truthfully announced the situation. Now this is NOT known as "playing tight" unless you might use the word "tight" to mean drunk. Yet he won. Big! Fear? I don't know if he feared losing or not.

>Bottom line - I'm very good at poker
Well, if its a game of skill, then any system can only enhance it. Perhaps.
>I hate sitting at a table for hours waiting for the hands.
Of course, but you can't win if you don't play the game.

>I'm sure that will stimulate heated discussion - I won't partake.
I hope not too heated. Please partake however, otherwise that stack of pennies will have been a poor investment.

I think "system" may be misunderstood. We seek to see some sort of rational system in that we simply don't want to admit that our winnings were simply random events.
Garnabby
Garnabby
Joined: Aug 14, 2010
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January 1st, 2011 at 1:42:43 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Poker is a people game, not a system game.



It's a game of waiting for the "big fish", in the bigger games, where the rake is relatively-small. New players can't (exactly) give away what they don't know, the good ones are as likely to do one play as some other, but the "big fish" know just enough to get into trouble. Otherwise, as Mike Matusow pointed out, "Better put some (of that) money away, because every professional player I know has lost it all back at least once."

Many of the world's wealthiest, however, didn't "drop out" altogether... they just didn't waste their time chasing 0.5% (perceived) edges against each other, and ultimately against casinos, book-makers, et al.
Why bet at all, if you can be sure? Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts? (P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 1st, 2011 at 3:58:01 PM permalink
Quote: Garnabby

they just didn't waste their time chasing 0.5% (perceived) edges against each other,



This is why shows like High Stakes Poker are so fake. Those guys have no edge against each other, there is no way on earth they would bet 50K of their own money when they have no edge. Its as fake as professional wrestling.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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January 1st, 2011 at 4:19:07 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

As far as gambling is concerned I am a student of chaos, volatility and risk. I realized a long time ago, maybe before many of you were born, that results in gambling (and just about everything else) were non-linear.
...
I'm sure that will stimulate heated discussion - I won't partake.



Being knowledgeable regarding risk and volatility is wise for anyone who wagers, but you would be remiss in suggesting that gambling results are "non-linear". Insofar as your average wager is scaled by a factor of X, then ceteris paribus, your average result will also be scaled by a factor of X. That is the definition of a linear relationship. On the other hand, if you find a wagering game where this linear relationship does not hold, that would be an interesting discovery. (I don't mean a slot game with a higher payback based on larger denominations, for example).

That said, why would you seek to stimulate a heated discussion and then not participate?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 1st, 2011 at 4:22:13 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

This is why shows like High Stakes Poker are so fake. Those guys have no edge against each other, there is no way on earth they would bet 50K of their own money when they have no edge. Its as fake as professional wrestling.


I can't speak directly to "fake", but if that show earns money through advertising (which it undoubtedly does), and some percentage of that revenue finds its way to the participants, then every player has a positive edge. I would gladly push money back and forth across a poker table between us if we were both being paid by a third party, and especially if we agreed beforehand to void the results of any pots, eliminating any bankroll fluctuations and guaranteeing both of us a consistent profit with zero variance.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 1st, 2011 at 5:18:19 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I would gladly push money back and forth across a poker table between us if we were both being paid by a third party, and especially if we agreed beforehand to void the results of any pots



Thats exactly what they do. They only real money is the bundled cash, and that belongs to the producers. Its all for show and for the careers of the players. Its not even 'real' poker because they tend to take more chances because the money isn't real.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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