Best system?
Quote: cmMitchellwe can rule out flat betting that would lead to his ruination
link to original post
Not so.
Flat betting small would lead to ruination.Flat betting MASSIVE would eliminate a lot of churning through the house edge and he could be about 50% likely to survive.
What he must avoid doing is MORE that doubling. To have that be possible is to take unneeded risk and reduce his chance of surviving.
Since you gave him a year, he should go home and live for a year and agree to place those few wagers at the end of his year.
Quote: cmMitchellno time control i suppose 1 year tho, he can play keno video poker, table games etc....
link to original post
Screw that.
Ample time to come back with his AK-47 and blow the guy's freaking head off.
Quote: FinsRuleThis is the absolute worst place in the world to ask hypothetical questions.
link to original post
Hypothetically what's the best place?
:)
so how about wizard? what is the best way to handle 10k$ cash of 1$ units at the gaming houses of ac or vegas?
How about finding a slot that allowed a 0.01c wager and playing 1 penny per pull, waiting as long as possible between spins. That 10k might last 2 lifetimes. Or at the very least, it would last until casino security started investigating and dealt with the gun-toter, as guns are usually not allowed in casinos.Quote: cmMitchellsuppose the wizard had a gun to his/her head and the person holding the gun said if you do not double bankroll of 10k units you die,
besides live poker or blackjack or sports betting which game would he pick and how would he bet his system?
i know he wont reply to this question but you just might!
i know tis not flat bet since can only get ahead 2 maybe 3 standard deviants so how about wizard?
link to original post
Penny slots can swallow that pretty quickly, I think.
With a 10k bankroll one could play full pay 100.65 .25 Joker poker at the Plaza 40 hours a week and they should make more than 10k for the year. I don't know if those machines are eligible for any club benefits or promotions/free play.
Quote: teliotHow about finding a slot that allowed a 0.01c wager and playing 1 penny per pull, waiting as long as possible between spins. That 10k might last 2 lifetimes. Or at the very least, it would last until casino security started investigating and dealt with the gun-toter, as guns are usually not allowed in casinos.Quote: cmMitchellsuppose the wizard had a gun to his/her head and the person holding the gun said if you do not double bankroll of 10k units you die,
besides live poker or blackjack or sports betting which game would he pick and how would he bet his system?
i know he wont reply to this question but you just might!
i know tis not flat bet since can only get ahead 2 maybe 3 standard deviants so how about wizard?
link to original post
link to original post
Further proof that great minds think alike. You want to stall long enough for your family to organize a rescue mission.
i will permit to win 5k units on 1 year.
If the wizard has knowledge that betting 1 unit (1$) betting would have a 0.10% chance and a betting all 49.5%
then he is aware of a happy medium. the odds sharpen on a double up video poker game as higher you go and claim to have a independent play on each turn surely the wizard can use this knoweldge to gain a math edge over the carny game.
his life on the line surely anyone can do it shall be the wizard.
Quote: rainman
OP excluded BJ, You and I both know he would be in quick consultation with the King of roulette.
link to original post
If I mention a certain method would I be accused of hijacking? I have to ask because I have no idea what hijacking means around here anymore.
Quote: EvenBob
If I mention a certain method would I be accused of hijacking? I have to ask because I have no idea what hijacking means around here anymore.
link to original post
How long would it take you to double 10k units using your "method?"
Quote: TigerWu
How long would it take you to double 10k units using your "method?"
link to original post
Ask me that in the Gamble thread and I'll tell you. I'm not talking about any method here because of hijacking concerns that seem to change by the day.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
How long would it take you to double 10k units using your "method?"
link to original post
Ask me that in the Gamble thread and I'll tell you. I'm not talking about any method here because of hijacking concerns that seem to change by the day.
link to original post
This thread is specifically asking about systems to double up a bankroll. If you have information or opinions relevant to that you can discuss it.
You were hijacking the other thread because it was about legal issues involved in sports betting, and had nothing to do with roulette or gambling systems.
i guess thats the best option FPDWwould be his best option of living
Calling himself the Wizard doesn't give Mike special powers to change the math of a situation.Quote: cmMitchellIf some how the wizard can not double the bankroll of 10k units (my generous of 10k$ cash) then he will be wiped from this 3D existence.
i will permit to win 5k units on 1 year.
If the wizard has knowledge that betting 1 unit (1$) betting would have a 0.10% chance and a betting all 49.5%
then he is aware of a happy medium. the odds sharpen on a double up video poker game as higher you go and claim to have a independent play on each turn surely the wizard can use this knoweldge to gain a math edge over the carny game.
his life on the line surely anyone can do it shall be the wizard.
link to original post
If you make a series of -EV wagers of varying sizes according to a system, you cannot have a probability of doubling up (PODU) greater than 50%. This is simple math. The EV of the whole series is just:
EV = (PODU - (1 - PODU)) * BR) / (average amount wagered per attempt).
Here BR is the number of units in the starting bankroll. This EV number would be positive if PODU was greater than 50%. No betting system changes the EV, so PODU cannot be greater than 50% no matter what system you use.
As OnceDear alludes to above, any betting system where you might exceed the target double up by even a small amount reduces the PODU. This is implicit in the equation above. The PODU is reduced by increasing the average amount wagered per attempt. OD and others have pointed this out before. You maximize PODU for a -EV game by a betting system that minimizes churn. This means trying to double up as quickly as possible. For an even money payoff, you would bet the whole BR on one game. If you could only play a game that paid 2:1, then you would bet half your bankroll on the first game and hope to win right there. Thereafter you always bet the maximum amount that takes you exactly to the target or the whole bankroll if it is less than this amount. This minimizes churn and maximizes PODU.
If house limits don't permit you bet enough to reach the double up on the next game, then betting the max is the right strategy.
For a +EV game, you want to bet the minimum amount and just grind out the double up.
Im still unsure if your original question includes all non-online gambling situations including casinos promotions etc. If it does then be aware that The Wizard isn't a full time Advantage Player. He may not be the best person to answer this question. He would certainly be one of the best at doing the math for a given situation.Quote: cmMitchellagain if the wizard wants to put all his eggs in1 basket and hope to win 2.5 royal on 9/6 thats his choosing if he wants to go to sams town and pull off a 10k unit win thats his way as well
i guess thats the best option FPDWwould be his best option of living
link to original post
I don't even know where they have .25 FPDW anymore.. Just FPJW
.25 FPDW/FPJW wouldn't be his best option. Also, playing. 25 FPDWFPJW would take a fair amount of time and since there's few left there's a chance they could be eliminated mid play.
There's far better options if you are allowed to play any and all forms of Advantage Play.
Playing -EV VP would be evidence of a death wish. It is virtually impossible to avoid exceeding the double up target while playing VP. Therefore, you are more likely to die playing VP. Better to play a game with a fixed payoff ratio like craps or bacc.Quote: cmMitchellagain if the wizard wants to put all his eggs in1 basket and hope to win 2.5 royal on 9/6 thats his choosing if he wants to go to sams town and pull off a 10k unit win thats his way as well
i guess thats the best option FPDWwould be his best option of living
link to original post
Quote: cmMitchellagain if the wizard wants to put all his eggs in1 basket and hope to win 2.5 royal on 9/6 thats his choosing if he wants to go to sams town and pull off a 10k unit win thats his way as well
i guess thats the best option FPDWwould be his best option of living
link to original post
I can’t wait to hear what you would do!
Brilliant answer.Quote: MentalCalling himself the Wizard doesn't give Mike special powers to change the math of a situation.Quote: cmMitchellIf some how the wizard can not double the bankroll of 10k units (my generous of 10k$ cash) then he will be wiped from this 3D existence.
i will permit to win 5k units on 1 year.
If the wizard has knowledge that betting 1 unit (1$) betting would have a 0.10% chance and a betting all 49.5%
then he is aware of a happy medium. the odds sharpen on a double up video poker game as higher you go and claim to have a independent play on each turn surely the wizard can use this knoweldge to gain a math edge over the carny game.
his life on the line surely anyone can do it shall be the wizard.
link to original post
If you make a series of -EV wagers of varying sizes according to a system, you cannot have a probability of doubling up (PODU) greater than 50%. This is simple math. The EV of the whole series is just:
EV = (PODU - (1 - PODU)) * BR) / (average amount wagered per attempt).
Here BR is the number of units in the starting bankroll. This EV number would be positive if PODU was greater than 50%. No betting system changes the EV, so PODU cannot be greater than 50% no matter what system you use.
As OnceDear alludes to above, any betting system where you might exceed the target double up by even a small amount reduces the PODU. This is implicit in the equation above. The PODU is reduced by increasing the average amount wagered per attempt. OD and others have pointed this out before. You maximize PODU for a -EV game by a betting system that minimizes churn. This means trying to double up as quickly as possible. For an even money payoff, you would bet the whole BR on one game. If you could only play a game that paid 2:1, then you would bet half your bankroll on the first game and hope to win right there. Thereafter you always bet the maximum amount that takes you exactly to the target or the whole bankroll if it is less than this amount. This minimizes churn and maximizes PODU.
If house limits don't permit you bet enough to reach the double up on the next game, then betting the max is the right strategy.
For a +EV game, you want to bet the minimum amount and just grind out the double up.
link to original post
Thanks for the formula.
(Note. I'm convinced this new member is not so new a member )
just another guy recycling "you can't beat the house"
then i must pull thy trigger
but surely the wizard rather see a 49.5 chance then a mere 0.10 chance (betting it all betting it slowly)so the wizard is still same as you and me
hes no wizard!!!
but wwon't voice his opinion on best option.
Quote: cmMitchellIf the wizard can not produce a winning formula then in my opinion he is no wizard
just another guy recycling "you can't beat the house"
then i must pull thy trigger
but surely the wizard rather see a 49.5 chance then a mere 0.10 chance (betting it all betting it slowly)so the wizard is still same as you and me
hes no wizard!!!
link to original post
Correct, he is actually a mathematician named mike with extensive respect community and industry wide for his accomplishments in
gaming mathematics. He is not an actual Wizard. Do Wizards exist? do you believe in them?
which is fine.
all the math books say laying it all one shot is best possible outcome then i believe that would be his answer.
so nothing new..
Quote: cmMitchelli mean all these fancy words are great and all, the wizard can shave off lines that would succeed on double the bank
but wwon't voice his opinion on best option.
link to original post
I wouldn't be keen to disclose a play under duress.
Bankroll doubled.
It would still be gambling since no guarantee of an option.
Quote: TigerWu$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
link to original post
I was just going to say that. I'd prefer the commission-free variant where a win on a 3-card 7 is a push, because of the lower house edge and no commission.
If I must play regular baccarat, I'd bet the full 10K on Banker. If I won, I'd still be $500 short, due to the commission. Ideally, I'd bet $526.32 on the Banker to win $500, but I probably would be forced to bet in $5 increments. To avoid overshooting my goal, I'd just bet $500 on the Player as my second bet.
It's entirely possible that craps would offer a better chance, but it would get complicated with the odds bet. It's also possible the average action required to achieve the goal would be much more than $10,000.
I think I had an Ask the Wizard question on this a long time ago.
if your going make one big bet, Why not a +EV sports bet? You have a year to find one you think is good. You can probably find a side that's even-money.Quote: WizardQuote: TigerWu$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
link to original post
I was just going to say that. I'd prefer the commission-free variant where a win on a 3-card 7 is a push, because of the lower house edge and no commission.
If I must play regular baccarat, I'd bet the full 10K on Banker. If I won, I'd still be $500 short, due to the commission. Ideally, I'd bet $526.32 on the Banker to win $500, but I probably would be forced to bet in $5 increments. To avoid overshooting my goal, I'd just bet $500 on the Player as my second bet.
It's entirely possible that craps would offer a better chance, but it would get complicated with the odds bet. It's also possible the average action required to achieve the goal would be much more than $10,000.
I think I had an Ask the Wizard question on this a long time ago.
link to original post
I certainly wouldn't want ro risk my life on a coin flip situation heck i wouldn't even want to riak kyblike on a 95% chance so you are much better off finding something +EV making smaller bets and grinding out the 10k over the year.
I also neglected to mention that in the event of a tie, bet the same thing again.
Here is my new and improved answer.
1. Bet $10,000 on Banker. If you win, go to step 2.
2. With $19,500, bet $500 on Player. If you lose, go to step 3.
3. With $19,000, bet $1000 on Player. If you lose, go to step 4.
4. With $18,000, bet $2000 on Player. If you lose, go to step 5.
5. With $16,000, bet $4000 on Player. If you lose, go to step 6.
6. With $12,000, bet $8000 on Player. If you lose, go to step 7.
6. With $8,000, bet $8000 on Player. If you win, go to step 5.
7. With $4,000, bet $4000 on Player. If you win, go to step 6.
I show if you win the first bet, your chance of getting to $20,000 is 0.973005456. This calculated using a Markov chain.
The overall probability, including the probability of winning the Banker bet, or 0.493143325.
This is not much better than simply betting the full thing on the Pass bet in craps, with a probability of success of 0.492929.
Simply betting the full $10,000 on the Player has a probability of success of 0.49317517.
So, after all the work, I'm going with bet the whole enchilada the first time on the Player.
Quote: darkozI believe Wizard understands the grind means time means more exposure to house edge. He would go with one big bet.
I say Craps.
Passline $100. Make certain to find a 100× odds table. He can decide if the odds are good (for example maybe he doesn't take odds except if the point is 6 and 8. Then takes full odds for 100x. Mathematically the bulk of the bet is the best odds possible with zero EV for the house.
EDIT: Actually he probably would play the don't pass and lay full odds against 4 or 8 so he has the greater free odds of the 7 working for him.
link to original post
So wouldn't thus be better Wizard?
Quote: ChumpChangeIt's harder to make the point or make the come-out roll winner. Y'all gonna die with this all or nothing strategy trying to keep the HA down to zero. But I'm the type to lose 10 PL bets in a row myself sometimes. Really should pass the dice.
link to original post
Well if one is gambling with his life the best move is take the money, then punch the dude in the face, grab the gun and just keep throwing punches.
Quote: cmMitchell
hes no wizard!!!
link to original post
Most good Advantage Players never put their entire bankroll at risk, even when their life isn't at risk.
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
Quote: AxelWolf
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
link to original post
I'm risk averse so everything I've done up till now in developing my play is to take as little risk as possible. I'm probably overly cautious, but money is something I take very seriously and money is far too expensive to not take seriously. We sacrifice a lot in the pursuit of money, we sacrifice time which is something we'll never get back. Elon Musk says the only real currency is time because we only have so much of it and we can't make more of it. So use it wisely.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's obvious The Wizard is thinking like a mathematician and not an Advantage Player.
Most good Advantage Players never put their entire bankroll at risk, even when their life isn't at risk.
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
link to original post
I thought that was the point because in the OP it's mentioned no multicarding and no BJ.
Yes he didn't mention other forms of AP but I think it can be extrapolated that was what he meant.
Otherwise multicarding would definitely be feasible.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's obvious The Wizard is thinking like a mathematician and not an Advantage Player.
Most good Advantage Players never put their entire bankroll at risk, even when their life isn't at risk.
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
link to original post
Agreed, if I opted for the Baccarat option I would break the bankroll down into 4-8 bets
and avoid single bet catastrophic failure. I'm trying to stay alive I'm not concerned
with math calculated over the long term.
You wouldn't need to Multi card, especially since you are given 10k and one year to make10k. One could probably achieve that goal goal using one card at one location with a high chance of success.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfIt's obvious The Wizard is thinking like a mathematician and not an Advantage Player.
Most good Advantage Players never put their entire bankroll at risk, even when their life isn't at risk.
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
link to original post
I thought that was the point because in the OP it's mentioned no multicarding and no BJ.
Yes he didn't mention other forms of AP but I think it can be extrapolated that was what he meant.
Otherwise multicarding would definitely be feasible.
link to original post
I understand being risk adverse, all things considered, I am as well. But there's being risk adverse and then there's being an idiot. Not calling you an idiot but I would have to be an idiot of I had an 80% hit rate on roulette and I dicked around betting dollars and not thousands of dollar's.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolf
Rarely is an Advantage Payers entire bankroll at risk, even when they have a substantial advantage.
link to original post
I'm risk averse so everything I've done up till now in developing my play is to take as little risk as possible. I'm probably overly cautious, but money is something I take very seriously and money is far too expensive to not take seriously. We sacrifice a lot in the pursuit of money, we sacrifice time which is something we'll never get back. Elon Musk says the only real currency is time because we only have so much of it and we can't make more of it. So use it wisely.
link to original post
However, when one has an 80% hit rate on roulette there's a formula one can use ... *see Kelly/half Kelly that can guarantee success. IIRC I asked OD to sim all that and you conveniently ignored all that.
Again, there's NO reasonable or Logical excuses why you shouldn't have made millions with an 80% hit rate on roulette. Even if you could only get down on an 80% hit rate bet every 3 days you could turn a small bankroll into millions.
If you truly have an 80% hit rate on roulette you have used your year's and 10 of thousands of post's absolutely horribly. You should have been asking how can I best take full advantage of this precious skill and bank the profits.
If you can't handle the burden of being rich and can't figure out how to protect yourself from the possible pitfalls, then I guess your not as smart as you want us to believe.
