Evaluating Betting Systems and Methods!
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September 16th, 2023 at 5:15:50 PM
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A few tests.... I suppose it could be a flowchart, but here's a first draft....
Does it look like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with caution.
Does it smell look like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with extreme caution.
Is it steaming like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with super extreme caution.
Is everyone except one person screaming "Oi! Mind you don't step in that pile of 💩"?
Is there one person nearby just pulling his pants up, next to it?
If yes, open you mind to the idea that evidence might be starting to mount that you are being presented with a pile of 💩?
Is that one person insisting that it is brown nectar and inviting you to taste it for yourself?
Make your own mind up..... But you can have my share.
Does it look like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with caution.
Does it smell look like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with extreme caution.
Is it steaming like a pile of 💩?
If yes, proceed with super extreme caution.
Is everyone except one person screaming "Oi! Mind you don't step in that pile of 💩"?
Is there one person nearby just pulling his pants up, next to it?
If yes, open you mind to the idea that evidence might be starting to mount that you are being presented with a pile of 💩?
Is that one person insisting that it is brown nectar and inviting you to taste it for yourself?
Make your own mind up..... But you can have my share.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 16th, 2023 at 7:09:12 PM
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Quote: OnceDearA few tests.... I suppose it could be a flowchart, but here's a first draft....
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If you need a betting system you're screwed before you start, there are no good ones unless you already have good bet selection. And then you don't need one.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 1:36:45 AM
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I can tenuously agree with you there, EB. The tenuous bit revolves around the word 'need'.Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearA few tests.... I suppose it could be a flowchart, but here's a first draft....
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If you need a betting system you're screwed before you start, there are no good ones unless you already have good bet selection. And then you don't need one.
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As Wizard rightly says, "All betting systems are worthless.", which I prefer to express as "All betting systems are of no monetary value". Subtly difference if one assigns "Worth" to getting some amusement or control of adrenaline flow. One can certainly 'shape' the path of one's bankroll progress using even the most simple system: We can have the ramp and plunge of martingale, or the steady decline and occasional big hit of reverse martingale, or indeed we can use different levels of wager to make our sessions last longer or shorter. If that has 'worth to you' then who are we to argue. It's similar to stop losses and session win goals, in that they can help to change our enjoyment of the game and temper our risk of losing out to addiction.
Stop losses and win goals and hit and run or win and leave are also of no monetary value, except for if they discourage or pace out some wagers.
I'm sure EB will be along to counter that Bet Selection is the only thing of monetary value. It's just a shame that trend following and pattern recognition are also of zero value.
I have my purple unicorn, Henry, assist me with bet selection. He guesses every wager correctly and never ever gives me bad advice.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 17th, 2023 at 7:34:41 AM
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Quote: OnceDear
I'm sure EB will be along to counter that Bet Selection is the only thing of monetary value. It's just a shame that trend following and pattern recognition are also of zero value.
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Bet selection is King, it's all that matters. And everything has zero value until you figure out how to use it. Henry Ford used to own his own oak tree forests and sawmills to supply him with the wood needed to build his Model T. These places produced a ton of sawdust that was considered a waste product of zero value and was usually hauled away and burned until Henry Ford figured out he could turn it into charcoal and he started the Kingsford Charcoal company which still exists to this day. So just because you can't figure out how to use trends and patterns does not mean they have no value to somebody else. Try and look beyond the end of your nose, there's a whole other world out there.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 9:03:44 AM
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Didn’t know that about Ford. Thanks!
September 17th, 2023 at 10:37:23 AM
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Quote: EvenBobSo just because you can't figure out how to use trends and patterns does not mean they have no value to somebody else. Try and look beyond the end of your nose, there's a whole other world out there.
link to original post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/38560-evaluating-betting-systems-and-methods/#post900699
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 17th, 2023 at 10:51:46 AM
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Quote: OnceDearQuote: EvenBobSo just because you can't figure out how to use trends and patterns does not mean they have no value to somebody else. Try and look beyond the end of your nose, there's a whole other world out there.
link to original post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/38560-evaluating-betting-systems-and-methods/#post900699
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You just made my point for me. To you that pile of sawdust looks like a pile of crap that needs to be hauled away. To Henry Ford it looked like a pile of money. He ends up fabulously wealthy and you end up with well, a pile of crap.. Just because you see nothing in patterns and trends doesn't mean there's nothing there. It means there's nothing there for you. Luckily for me I didn't know any of that when I started so for me patterns and trends are a literal gold mine. One man's pile of crap is another man's gold mine. Been true since the beginning of time..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 11:35:32 AM
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Congratulations EB on smearing your Marmite coloured crock of gold across yet another thread on this forum. Wizard and the moderators grant you that right to deface the place in that way. That you ( claim to ) believe that you are endowed with the super human prowess at 'educated guessing' random outcomes has now been touted in how many threads? Does it make you sad that so many of them got closed down. Or did you prefer the clean slate offered by new threads? Your unbelievable prowess was unproven in 2011 and is still as brown and sticky, and unproven now as it ever was.Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearQuote: EvenBobSo just because you can't figure out how to use trends and patterns does not mean they have no value to somebody else. Try and look beyond the end of your nose, there's a whole other world out there.
link to original post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/38560-evaluating-betting-systems-and-methods/#post900699
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You just made my point for me. To you that pile of sawdust looks like a pile of crap that needs to be hauled away. To Henry Ford it looked like a pile of money. He ends up fabulously wealthy and you end up with well, a pile of crap.. Just because you see nothing in patterns and trends doesn't mean there's nothing there. It means there's nothing there for you. Luckily for me I didn't know any of that when I started so for me patterns and trends are a literal gold mine. One man's pile of crap is another man's gold mine. Been true since the beginning of time..
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I can't prove that you have no such unbelievable trend using pattern recognising prowess any more than you can ( care to ) prove that you do have.
Henry the Unicorn joins me and many other members here in suggesting that you can have our share of the marmite coloured, steaming, smelly gold. We won't be dipping a finger in and taking a taste.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 17th, 2023 at 11:38:33 AM
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Quote: OnceDearCongratulations EB on smearing your Marmite coloured crock of gold across yet another thread on this forum.
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Hey you brought it up, I'm just defending myself. You said and I quote:
"I'm sure EB will be along to counter that Bet Selection is the only thing of monetary value. It's just a shame that trend following and pattern recognition are also of zero value."
If you don't want me to defend it quit bringing it up.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 11:54:03 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearCongratulations EB on smearing your Marmite coloured crock of gold across yet another thread on this forum.
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Hey you brought it up, I'm just defending myself. You said and I quote:
"I'm sure EB will be along to counter that Bet Selection is the only thing of monetary value. It's just a shame that trend following and pattern recognition are also of zero value."
If you don't want me to defend it quit bringing it up.
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Defend yourself?
You, sir defend your 'Method' passionately. I've never quite understood why. I once thought it was just you being mischievous in defending something you know to be worthless, just for your own amusement. But you are steadily convincing me of the only viable alternative theory that I can come up with. That you actually believe in your prowess. Pity.
Henry the Unicorn sends his regards.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 17th, 2023 at 2:49:10 PM
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Quote: OnceDearBut you are steadily convincing me of the only viable alternative theory that I can come up with. That you actually believe in your prowess.
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I not only believe in it, the casino pays me for believing it and for demonstrating it.
I'm cleaning my basement this week and I came across a box today from 2009 full of notebooks with my roulette practice sessions. Hundreds of pages, an entire box full of paper. And that's just up to 2009, I had boxes and boxes from later dates but I threw most of them away. I thought I'll take a picture of this box and post it then I thought why bother they'll just say I just made it up, it's all fake. LOL. I'm looking through the stuff and thinking I must have really been obsessed but then it got me to where I am today. So yeah, I actually 100% totally believe in my prowess because it took me a long long long long time to get here.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 3:30:35 PM
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Shackleton died looking for the Northwest Passage, but at least the Northwest Passage was real.
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
September 17th, 2023 at 4:39:31 PM
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Quote: Mental
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
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A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 5:46:58 PM
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My apologies. I should have said 18 years of meaningful scribbles with nothing to show for it.Quote: EvenBobQuote: Mental
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
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A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
September 17th, 2023 at 7:18:47 PM
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Quote: MentalMy apologies. I should have said 18 years of meaningful scribbles with nothing to show for it.Quote: EvenBobQuote: Mental
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
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A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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What are you talking about nothing to show for it, I have a winning method and it pays all my bills every month. That's hardly nothing..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 8:25:19 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: MentalMy apologies. I should have said 18 years of meaningful scribbles with nothing to show for it.Quote: EvenBobQuote: Mental
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
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A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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What are you talking about nothing to show for it, I have a winning method and it pays all my bills every month. That's hardly nothing..
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Sure it does. Good on ya. Who are we to disprove your assertion. The evidence for your method is smeared like Marmite over so many pages of so many forums, over so many years. Why would you do that if you didn't believe it?
And there it is. Not saying that you believe it because it's demonstrably true, but that you believe in it because you 'spent' so much time obsessing over it, jotting notes, practicing. It would take so much [I can't say the word] to admit to YOURSELF that you have wasted 14 years* obsessing over a roulette wheel. Far easier to stick to your narrative than to admit a wasted decade chasing a Holy Grail that does not exist.Quote: EvenBobSo yeah, I actually 100% totally believe in my prowess because it took me a long long long long time to get here.
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Oh. 'the casino pays your bills.' That is such an easy assertion to make, and impossible for us to disprove. Doesn't make it true.
So for now, I accept that you believe it. One day you might convince someone that it's true. It will never be true.
Henry my pet unicorn agrees.
*2009 - 2023 is not 18 years. I have no idea where you came up with 18 years.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Sep 17, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 17th, 2023 at 9:50:49 PM
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Quote: OnceDearNot saying that you believe it because it's demonstrably true,
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Nice try. It's demonstrably true not because I discovered it two weeks ago, but because I developed it over a long long long time. 2009 is where the box of notebooks is from, it contains my work previous to 2009. I actually discovered Roulette in 2004 and started working on it in 2005, 18 years ago. I joined gamblers Glen in 2006 and that's when people started telling me that I wasn't doing what I was doing. Like they would know. And none of the time has been wasted. Just tonight I was playing and something really obvious was going on with the outcomes and I looked at it, and I said no, and I bet the opposite of what it looked like I should have bet. And I was right. Now how did I know that, how did I know to do that. From 18 years of scribbling in notebooks, observing outcomes, that's how. You would say that it was just dumb luck. Just like the guy who's an expert deer hunter and goes out and bags a buck every single year. Luck has nothing to do with it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 11:02:27 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
What are you talking about nothing to show for it, I have a winning method and it pays all my bills every month. That's hardly nothing..
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All is fine and cool - being obsessed about being able to make easy money through gambling, being self-delusional about the actual results, being spiteful and vengeful to people who deny you your delusions - it's all part of the human nature and understandable.
But Lying is not cool and it's bad karma. One should not lie, it only brings misfortunes down the road.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to?
You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
September 17th, 2023 at 11:40:17 PM
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Quote: rawtuffOne should not lie, it only brings misfortunes down the road.
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You are speaking for yourself I presume. Did you get that from the Bible or did you think it up yourself.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 17th, 2023 at 11:51:41 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: rawtuffOne should not lie, it only brings misfortunes down the road.
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You are speaking for yourself I presume. Did you get that from the Bible or did you think it up yourself.
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I do not habitually lie, so no, not speaking for myself.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to?
You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
September 18th, 2023 at 5:15:39 AM
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Related to betting systems,the Fibonacci sequence is based on a math problem involving what animal?
rabbits
September 18th, 2023 at 6:26:25 AM
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Quote: EvenBob
A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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We've seen where you are now in life. It's nothing to brag about.
September 18th, 2023 at 7:22:24 AM
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Did EB claim this system has been paying his bills for the last few years?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 18th, 2023 at 7:37:56 AM
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The casinos pay EB every damn day. There is no mention of how often EB deposits new funds.Quote: billryanDid EB claim this system has been paying his bills for the last few years?
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If EB has accounts at a few casinos, he can surely pay all of his bills with money that he has recently withdrawn from a casino. It probably supports his delusions to launder the expenses through an online casino this way.
I always withdraw to my brokerage account, but I use PayPal to deposit for bonuses or if I have a bad run. It just makes it easier to track funs flows this way. However, my brokerage statement makes it look like I only ever withdraw from casinos. EB might use one account just so he can show his better half that the casinos are paying all of the bills. Eventually, he comes to believe it himself.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
September 18th, 2023 at 7:48:25 AM
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By EB's own admission there is no way gambling pays all his bills every month.
He has said there are days where he doesn't make a bet at all because he doesn't get any good patterns.
We've seen how much he bets by the very logs he himself has posted... it's literally pennies a day, or at most a couple of bucks.
He has admitted multiple times that he refuses to bet more than this because then the casinos will ban him.
So how much does he make gambling online? If we piece together the clues from his own words, he's pulling in, what, less than $100 a month? Maybe even less than $50? He has done or said nothing to demonstrate otherwise. He once offered to post six weeks worth of logs to show how much he could win, but this offer was immediately retracted when others in the forum called his bluff and agreed to his terms.
He is NOT paying his bills from gambling winnings, other than maybe a phone bill and some cat food every now and then.
He has said there are days where he doesn't make a bet at all because he doesn't get any good patterns.
We've seen how much he bets by the very logs he himself has posted... it's literally pennies a day, or at most a couple of bucks.
He has admitted multiple times that he refuses to bet more than this because then the casinos will ban him.
So how much does he make gambling online? If we piece together the clues from his own words, he's pulling in, what, less than $100 a month? Maybe even less than $50? He has done or said nothing to demonstrate otherwise. He once offered to post six weeks worth of logs to show how much he could win, but this offer was immediately retracted when others in the forum called his bluff and agreed to his terms.
He is NOT paying his bills from gambling winnings, other than maybe a phone bill and some cat food every now and then.
September 18th, 2023 at 7:59:06 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: MentalQuote: EvenBobQuote:
What are you talking about nothing to show for it, I have a winning method and it pays all my bills every month. That's hardly nothing..
link to original post[/link
"I HAVE A WINNING METHOD AND IT PAYS ALL MY BILLS EVERY MONTH."The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 18th, 2023 at 8:03:23 AM
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Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBob
A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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We've seen where you are now in life. It's nothing to brag about.
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You've seen where I am, really? You have my permission to post pictures and give us more details about exactly where I am. You have no idea where I am.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 8:06:15 AM
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Quote: MentalThe casinos pay EB every damn day. There is no mention of how often EB deposits new funds.Quote: billryanDid EB claim this system has been paying his bills for the last few years?
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I have talked about this before. I don't make deposits unless it's a new casino, that's part of the problem. All I do is make withdrawals, why would I ever need to make a deposit. I might change that just to make it look like I'm making deposits but I don't think it's that easy to fool the Casino computer.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 8:09:03 AM
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Quote: TigerWu
He has said there are days where he doesn't make a bet at all because he doesn't get any good patterns.
We've seen how much he bets by the very logs he himself has posted... it's literally pennies a day, or at most a couple of bucks.
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You really expect me to take the time to explain all this ridiculousness AGAIN? You have got to be joking. If you do not understand what's going on by now I could explain it a 100 more times and you're still not going to get it. Good grief.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 8:15:40 AM
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Yes, at this point we do expect you to keep taking time to explain all this ridiculousness over and over again. How else can you keep your lead in the post count and keep yourself the center of attention?Quote: EvenBobYou really expect me to take the time to explain all this ridiculousness AGAIN?
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
September 18th, 2023 at 8:27:49 AM
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Quote: MentalYes, at this point we do expect you to keep taking time to explain all this ridiculousness over and over again. How else can you keep your lead in the post count and keep yourself the center of attention?Quote: EvenBobYou really expect me to take the time to explain all this ridiculousness AGAIN?
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Hey, you guys brought all this stuff up AGAIN, not me. You're the ones that want to keep it at the center of attention for whatever reason.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 9:08:14 AM
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Quote: EvenBobYou really expect me to take the time to explain all this ridiculousness AGAIN?
Nope. Please don't.
September 18th, 2023 at 9:50:33 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: Mental
Someone spending a decade filling notebooks with meaningless scribbles with nothing to show for it just sounds sad.
link to original post
A decade, more like 18 years. And the exact opposite of meaningless because it got me to where I am now. Duh..
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18 years?... 18 yo's?... I think I'm on to something here Bob I'm starting to see a pattern.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:20:46 AM
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Quote: rainman18 years?... 18 yo's?... I think I'm on to something here Bob I'm starting to see a pattern.
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Hey, you might be right... just look at the title of the thread:
"Evaluating Betting Systems and Methods!"
or
"E.B. Systems and Methods!"
!!!
September 18th, 2023 at 10:25:31 AM
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Quote: rainman
18 years?... 18 yo's?... I think I'm on to something here Bob I'm starting to see a pattern.
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A pattern? Don't think I didn't see what you did there..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 11:22:17 AM
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deleted
Last edited by: EvenBob on Sep 18, 2023
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 18th, 2023 at 12:50:21 PM
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I played a lot of Sic Bo the year I worked in AC. I was convinced I'd developed a betting pattern that gave me an edge. I filled two or three notebooks with results. Each time, I'd come oh so close and knew it was just missing that final fine-tuning. I even hired a client of mine, who was a high school math teacher, to review my notes and find my error. After a fifteen minute explanation and a minute or two of examining my work, he gave it all back and told me I'd achieve the same results simply flat betting. It took me years to realize he was right.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 18th, 2023 at 1:23:01 PM
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Comment moved to another thread
Last edited by: OnceDear on Sep 18, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 18th, 2023 at 1:24:10 PM
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Not deleted fast enough to escape notice. Why did you delete that I wonder?Quote: EvenBobdeleted
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Oh. And 'Evaluating Betting Systems & Methods' was not a reference to E.B.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
September 18th, 2023 at 1:37:36 PM
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Thanks Bill. Nice one!Quote: billryanI played a lot of Sic Bo the year I worked in AC. I was convinced I'd developed a betting pattern that gave me an edge. I filled two or three notebooks with results. Each time, I'd come oh so close and knew it was just missing that final fine-tuning. I even hired a client of mine, who was a high school math teacher, to review my notes and find my error. After a fifteen minute explanation and a minute or two of examining my work, he gave it all back and told me I'd achieve the same results simply flat betting. It took me years to realize he was right.
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I bet that for a while you thought something along the lines of "Thank Heck I didn't waste any money wagering on that pattern, or worst still telling everyone how great it was". You accepted correction and explanation and you wised yourself up. No shame in that. But had you put a LOT more effort into it and invested a decade out of your life, and touted your prowess on forums, wouldn't you have been inclined to cling onto the misguided fantasy tighter and tighter?
I know I would. It's human nature.
The truth shall set you free.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
