Tough Craps
December 20th, 2021 at 8:16:38 PM
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Long time gambling forum members may recall that a poster on another, now dead forum posted his craps system which he called "tough craps."
I am reposting it below due to viewers possibly havving difficulties finding it otherwise.
A tribute to Tom "Home runs are often boring."
______________________________________________________________________
tom'homeruns are often boring'p's profile photo
tom'homeruns are often boring'p
Apr 3, 2003, 11:51:53 PM
i say next time try tough craps.
with $2,000 you have 2 bankrolls. put $1000 in your room safe. unless
you play more than 25-30 hours, you "probably" wont need to touch the
2nd g playing tough. (my bust rate is 10-11% with approx that many
rolls average).
the tough craps object is to win large, $50 grand or more. there
really is no win limit. an important secondary objective is to
conserve bankroll, to stretch your $thousand to last for all the time
you care to play. a third goal, often sacrificed on the altar of the
second, is to get plenty of action.
initially (try to) come out on 4 numbers: the pass line & 3 come bets.
the line bet should ALWAYS be the minimum required to get your odds
bet. tough craps is concerned only with the numbers, the free odds
bet. the line bet is ignored for any strategic purpose & is
restored/dragged to its original amount whenever craps/naturals are
rolled.
YOU ALWAYS, WITHOUT EXCEPTION (ok 2 exceptions),EVERY F*****G TIME
PROGRESS YOUR (ODDS) BET ON A WIN!! (the first exception-"the tough
craps fantasy"-is not really an exception because it is INVOLUNTARY:
you have reached the table limit of every house in town and no one
will book your bet [benny binion being dead, this could now possibly
even happen in vegas]. the other exception is 'semi-voluntary': you
just run out of time & have to catch a flight or etc)
any previous attempt to explain tough craps has resulted in logorrhea
so i will try to be brief. i do have an e-mailing list where from time
to time i demonstrate how tough craps is bet by showing real,
contemporaneous rolls (a tough craps bet file or preprogram is
problematical if not impossible) and how the tough craps player would
actually bet with a $1,000 bankroll and a set time limit. if you would
like to be on that list, drop me an email or etc. i believe i have
mailed out 8 or 9 examples of "trips" ranging from about 1000 to 7or
8000 rolls or so...
your initial bet(from now on when we say "bet" we mean the odds bet)
is $10. the tough craps bet progression is $10 -> 30 -> 30 -> 50 ->
75/80 -> 100 -> 150 -> 250 -> 400 -> 500 -> 750 -> 1000 -> 1500 ->
2500 -> 4000 -> 5000 & so on.
when playing tough, what to bet ON is NEVER <sic> in question: pass or
come with maximum affordable odds; HOW MUCH to bet depends upon the
answers to 2 questions: did i win the last bet? (see answer above) and
'what is the status of my bankroll?'
when losing, which is most of the time, the tough craps bet amount is
fairly cut-and-dried: when you are $1 to $99 behind (-$1 to -$99)-in
other words usually after the first hand! - your bet is CUT IN HALF
immediately: $5 -> 15/16 -> 15/16 -> 25/26 -> 40 -> 50 -> 75/76 -> 100
-> 150 & so on as above. you are still (trying to) come out on 4
numbers. when you are -$100 to -$299 your bet is the same but you
(try to) come out on only 3 points. when -$300 to -$499 try to
come out on 2 points. and at -$500 to -$1000 bet pass line only
(additionally if in vegas or elsewhere & you reach -$850->-$900 or so
& it is still early in your trip you might try to find a quarter of 50
cent table and further reduce your bet amount in an effort to
conserve bankroll even more. do not despair! at this point you could
still win $10,000, $15,000 or more-there is no win limit in tough
craps).
the tough craps "bankroll" is JUST THAT: the amount you would PUT OUT
THERE, the amount you can afford to lose. if you cannot afford to lose
it, you are not playing tough, you are playing stupid. when you lose
your limit you walk.
get out of town...
...unless you are our fortunate friend QuiGon: then you go to your
room safe, grab your thou and START OVER: that's right! your next bet
is $10 and you (try to) come out on 4 points...
ironically it is when you are winning that the tough craps bet amount
becomes, well, "problematical" is not the right word , but it becomes
more serendipitous, more context dependent,more thoughtful, more
idiosyncratic, less cut and dried. it is certainly more pleasant. the
bet progression RULE--every time, no exceptions--applies to the "hand"
as well. that is, if your bankroll is larger at the end of a hand than
at the beginning, then you MUST progress your bet. the object is to
win huge!
if you get (ONLY)$100 ahead, your bet DOUBLES: $20 -> 60 -> 60 -> 100
->150 then so on as above.
get only $300 ahead and the tough craps bet goes to the extremely
agressive $30 -> 100 -> 100 -> 150 -> 250 and so on. one hand can
easily put you back down to the $10 bet level...you immediately
retreat...or...
get $1000 ahead. you have now doubled your bankroll. this is a
traditional & imho a very rational MINIMUM win goal. if you can afford
to lose x amount , where x is your bankroll that you are really,
really willing to put out there, then, really have you changed your
life much, had all that much fun by winning LESS than that?? well, i
know. maybe. sure. that's fine. near the end of the trip you would
want to conserve & perhaps drag back for less; you've come too far to
walk away a loser now etc. but still...
if your hand ends and you are +$1000, your next bet is $50 -> 150 ->
150 -> 250 -> 400 & so on as above. Get (only) +$1500 and your
bet goes to $100 -> 300 -> 300 -> 500 -> 750 -> 1000 -> 1500 etc.
At +$2500 go to $150 -> 500 -> 500 -> 750 etc. Get $6000 up: $250
-> 750 -> 750 -> 1250 -> 2000 -> 2500 -> 4000 etc.
THE TOUGH CRAPS BET PROGRESSION CHART goes up to +$1,181,000
(hyperbole anyone?) and is available upon request.
if you just continued progressing,or even just slavishly followed the
chart you would always lose, of course. so at some point-again usually
not until winnings equal at least the initial bankroll-you need to
"drag" winnings. this is the tough craps equivalent of "quitting while
you are ahead".
or course you dont really quit until the trip is over. you dont really
quit until you die.
this can be a sophisticated and nuanced process so we cant go into too
much detail but one example: say at the end of any hand you have not
yet reached your win goal of $1000(you might have been there in the
"middle" of a hand but that is irrelevent) but now you end a winning
hand at, let's say, +$1217. your next bet MUST BE $50-150 etc per the
tough craps bet progression. but say you lose that hand now and end at
$1066. NOW you have choices. you can drag and "pretend" 1000 = zero,
say. you're thus at +$66 and bet 10-30 etc. maybe you reach $1100
again so you go to $20-60 etc. more likely you drop below $1000 and
your bet is $5-15 just as if you are really losing; drop below $900 &
now you're out on only 3 etc.
IOW just like our pal QuiGon STARTING OVER after losing $1000, on the
winning side we might START OVER also. thus is tough craps "organized"
around $1000 increments. it is a very dynamic decision making process
very much influenced by how much time you have left and playing time
available. if i had a half hour a day to play i would adapt to that
and still play tough AT ALL TIMES.
tough craps results:
275 trips, 818,128 rolls; won 90 lost 169 tied 16 (simulated)
TOTAL WINNINGS <sic> +, that's right plus $26,782
real trips (since finally starting to keep honest track)
11 trips , approx 25,000 rolls won 6 lost 5 tied 1
TOTAL WINNINGS +$6100
tom "home runs are often boring" p
I am reposting it below due to viewers possibly havving difficulties finding it otherwise.
A tribute to Tom "Home runs are often boring."
______________________________________________________________________
tom'homeruns are often boring'p's profile photo
tom'homeruns are often boring'p
Apr 3, 2003, 11:51:53 PM
i say next time try tough craps.
with $2,000 you have 2 bankrolls. put $1000 in your room safe. unless
you play more than 25-30 hours, you "probably" wont need to touch the
2nd g playing tough. (my bust rate is 10-11% with approx that many
rolls average).
the tough craps object is to win large, $50 grand or more. there
really is no win limit. an important secondary objective is to
conserve bankroll, to stretch your $thousand to last for all the time
you care to play. a third goal, often sacrificed on the altar of the
second, is to get plenty of action.
initially (try to) come out on 4 numbers: the pass line & 3 come bets.
the line bet should ALWAYS be the minimum required to get your odds
bet. tough craps is concerned only with the numbers, the free odds
bet. the line bet is ignored for any strategic purpose & is
restored/dragged to its original amount whenever craps/naturals are
rolled.
YOU ALWAYS, WITHOUT EXCEPTION (ok 2 exceptions),EVERY F*****G TIME
PROGRESS YOUR (ODDS) BET ON A WIN!! (the first exception-"the tough
craps fantasy"-is not really an exception because it is INVOLUNTARY:
you have reached the table limit of every house in town and no one
will book your bet [benny binion being dead, this could now possibly
even happen in vegas]. the other exception is 'semi-voluntary': you
just run out of time & have to catch a flight or etc)
any previous attempt to explain tough craps has resulted in logorrhea
so i will try to be brief. i do have an e-mailing list where from time
to time i demonstrate how tough craps is bet by showing real,
contemporaneous rolls (a tough craps bet file or preprogram is
problematical if not impossible) and how the tough craps player would
actually bet with a $1,000 bankroll and a set time limit. if you would
like to be on that list, drop me an email or etc. i believe i have
mailed out 8 or 9 examples of "trips" ranging from about 1000 to 7or
8000 rolls or so...
your initial bet(from now on when we say "bet" we mean the odds bet)
is $10. the tough craps bet progression is $10 -> 30 -> 30 -> 50 ->
75/80 -> 100 -> 150 -> 250 -> 400 -> 500 -> 750 -> 1000 -> 1500 ->
2500 -> 4000 -> 5000 & so on.
when playing tough, what to bet ON is NEVER <sic> in question: pass or
come with maximum affordable odds; HOW MUCH to bet depends upon the
answers to 2 questions: did i win the last bet? (see answer above) and
'what is the status of my bankroll?'
when losing, which is most of the time, the tough craps bet amount is
fairly cut-and-dried: when you are $1 to $99 behind (-$1 to -$99)-in
other words usually after the first hand! - your bet is CUT IN HALF
immediately: $5 -> 15/16 -> 15/16 -> 25/26 -> 40 -> 50 -> 75/76 -> 100
-> 150 & so on as above. you are still (trying to) come out on 4
numbers. when you are -$100 to -$299 your bet is the same but you
(try to) come out on only 3 points. when -$300 to -$499 try to
come out on 2 points. and at -$500 to -$1000 bet pass line only
(additionally if in vegas or elsewhere & you reach -$850->-$900 or so
& it is still early in your trip you might try to find a quarter of 50
cent table and further reduce your bet amount in an effort to
conserve bankroll even more. do not despair! at this point you could
still win $10,000, $15,000 or more-there is no win limit in tough
craps).
the tough craps "bankroll" is JUST THAT: the amount you would PUT OUT
THERE, the amount you can afford to lose. if you cannot afford to lose
it, you are not playing tough, you are playing stupid. when you lose
your limit you walk.
get out of town...
...unless you are our fortunate friend QuiGon: then you go to your
room safe, grab your thou and START OVER: that's right! your next bet
is $10 and you (try to) come out on 4 points...
ironically it is when you are winning that the tough craps bet amount
becomes, well, "problematical" is not the right word , but it becomes
more serendipitous, more context dependent,more thoughtful, more
idiosyncratic, less cut and dried. it is certainly more pleasant. the
bet progression RULE--every time, no exceptions--applies to the "hand"
as well. that is, if your bankroll is larger at the end of a hand than
at the beginning, then you MUST progress your bet. the object is to
win huge!
if you get (ONLY)$100 ahead, your bet DOUBLES: $20 -> 60 -> 60 -> 100
->150 then so on as above.
get only $300 ahead and the tough craps bet goes to the extremely
agressive $30 -> 100 -> 100 -> 150 -> 250 and so on. one hand can
easily put you back down to the $10 bet level...you immediately
retreat...or...
get $1000 ahead. you have now doubled your bankroll. this is a
traditional & imho a very rational MINIMUM win goal. if you can afford
to lose x amount , where x is your bankroll that you are really,
really willing to put out there, then, really have you changed your
life much, had all that much fun by winning LESS than that?? well, i
know. maybe. sure. that's fine. near the end of the trip you would
want to conserve & perhaps drag back for less; you've come too far to
walk away a loser now etc. but still...
if your hand ends and you are +$1000, your next bet is $50 -> 150 ->
150 -> 250 -> 400 & so on as above. Get (only) +$1500 and your
bet goes to $100 -> 300 -> 300 -> 500 -> 750 -> 1000 -> 1500 etc.
At +$2500 go to $150 -> 500 -> 500 -> 750 etc. Get $6000 up: $250
-> 750 -> 750 -> 1250 -> 2000 -> 2500 -> 4000 etc.
THE TOUGH CRAPS BET PROGRESSION CHART goes up to +$1,181,000
(hyperbole anyone?) and is available upon request.
if you just continued progressing,or even just slavishly followed the
chart you would always lose, of course. so at some point-again usually
not until winnings equal at least the initial bankroll-you need to
"drag" winnings. this is the tough craps equivalent of "quitting while
you are ahead".
or course you dont really quit until the trip is over. you dont really
quit until you die.
this can be a sophisticated and nuanced process so we cant go into too
much detail but one example: say at the end of any hand you have not
yet reached your win goal of $1000(you might have been there in the
"middle" of a hand but that is irrelevent) but now you end a winning
hand at, let's say, +$1217. your next bet MUST BE $50-150 etc per the
tough craps bet progression. but say you lose that hand now and end at
$1066. NOW you have choices. you can drag and "pretend" 1000 = zero,
say. you're thus at +$66 and bet 10-30 etc. maybe you reach $1100
again so you go to $20-60 etc. more likely you drop below $1000 and
your bet is $5-15 just as if you are really losing; drop below $900 &
now you're out on only 3 etc.
IOW just like our pal QuiGon STARTING OVER after losing $1000, on the
winning side we might START OVER also. thus is tough craps "organized"
around $1000 increments. it is a very dynamic decision making process
very much influenced by how much time you have left and playing time
available. if i had a half hour a day to play i would adapt to that
and still play tough AT ALL TIMES.
tough craps results:
275 trips, 818,128 rolls; won 90 lost 169 tied 16 (simulated)
TOTAL WINNINGS <sic> +, that's right plus $26,782
real trips (since finally starting to keep honest track)
11 trips , approx 25,000 rolls won 6 lost 5 tied 1
TOTAL WINNINGS +$6100
tom "home runs are often boring" p
"What, me worry?"
December 20th, 2021 at 11:18:48 PM
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I love the discipline regarding wager sizes in the above Tough Craps program. Chasing of losses is eliminated, and so is timid grinding during lengthy hands.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
December 20th, 2021 at 11:55:07 PM
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I can't keep track of how far my odds have gotten in the progression when a Come-out 7 knocks all the Come bets down then they have to be re-established. I'm more of a win a Come bet and replace it with a Place/Buy Bet player because of the frustration with Come bets getting knocked down or replaced on the Come-out. Because I can hardly hit 5+ PB's after they're established before a 7-out, I'm not inclined to try to press them, unless I pass a certain balance then I'll give them a single half press ($10 to $15) or 1/3rd press ($15 to $20) on a win. But that's with 2 Come bets. Maybe it'll play different with 3 Come bets.
Plus this guy's betting system relies on Hot Shooters to come back from wicked losing streaks.
**********************************************************************************************************
I tried this Tough Craps at the $50 level and I'm up $3K in 152 rolls. (That'd be up $300 at the $5 level.)
There's a 10X Odds table nearby but has a $15 minimum, so that'd be up $900 at the $15 level.
I'm intrigued by my beginner's luck on WinCraps.
And 152 rolls later I've lost the entire $3K in a typical WinCraps worst luck ever seen session. When 8 out of 9 Come bets lose on a craps roll, and PL come-outs after a point erase 2-3 Come bets, and really no points being hit and racking up the odds bets higher. I wonder how this grind works from the Don'ts now.
Maybe I'll try $60, $75, $100 odds on 3 Don't Come bets and raise the odds multiples as mentioned for the right side for each loss of the DC with Odds bets. I'll keep the PL with Odds bet the same.
Plus this guy's betting system relies on Hot Shooters to come back from wicked losing streaks.
**********************************************************************************************************
I tried this Tough Craps at the $50 level and I'm up $3K in 152 rolls. (That'd be up $300 at the $5 level.)
There's a 10X Odds table nearby but has a $15 minimum, so that'd be up $900 at the $15 level.
I'm intrigued by my beginner's luck on WinCraps.
And 152 rolls later I've lost the entire $3K in a typical WinCraps worst luck ever seen session. When 8 out of 9 Come bets lose on a craps roll, and PL come-outs after a point erase 2-3 Come bets, and really no points being hit and racking up the odds bets higher. I wonder how this grind works from the Don'ts now.
Maybe I'll try $60, $75, $100 odds on 3 Don't Come bets and raise the odds multiples as mentioned for the right side for each loss of the DC with Odds bets. I'll keep the PL with Odds bet the same.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 21, 2021
December 21st, 2021 at 3:07:51 AM
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At the $50 table minimum:
If I win 16 PL point bets in a row, no Come bets whatsoever, at the $50 level, I'll clear $100K with this progression with a mean win on the 5 or 9.
But I've got table limits of $600 PL and $6,000 odds; instead of $2,000 PL and $20,000 odds.
So on my local table, 16 PL point wins will get me to around $60K.
That's just not going to happen.
10 PL point wins in a row will get me to around $10K though.
If I cap the bets at $200 PL and $2,000 odds, I can get to near $20K with 13 PL point wins in a row.
This would allow me to add a $100 level and a $150 level that could get me to $40K and $60K respectively on 13 PL point wins in a row.
PL Odds
$50 $50
$50 $150
$50 $150
$50 $250
$50 $400
$50 $500
$75 $750
$125 $1,250
$200 $2,000
If I win 16 PL point bets in a row, no Come bets whatsoever, at the $50 level, I'll clear $100K with this progression with a mean win on the 5 or 9.
But I've got table limits of $600 PL and $6,000 odds; instead of $2,000 PL and $20,000 odds.
So on my local table, 16 PL point wins will get me to around $60K.
That's just not going to happen.
10 PL point wins in a row will get me to around $10K though.
If I cap the bets at $200 PL and $2,000 odds, I can get to near $20K with 13 PL point wins in a row.
This would allow me to add a $100 level and a $150 level that could get me to $40K and $60K respectively on 13 PL point wins in a row.
PL Odds
$50 $50
$50 $150
$50 $150
$50 $250
$50 $400
$50 $500
$75 $750
$125 $1,250
$200 $2,000
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 21, 2021
December 21st, 2021 at 4:30:26 AM
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I think this Tom guy and his tough craps was posting here for a while, but I'm not going to try to find them
At least he was talking about using the free odds. Sounds like you need to find the 100x table to me. He is talking about something that could actually happen to a really lucky guy. But I have yet to meet the person who can 'take' it ... I'm talking about the variance, the ups and downs. I've run wincraps simulations where you have 20x free odds or similar, and for a bunch of different players each experiencing a different RNG sequence over a putative lifetime. There are guys who win big and guys who get crucified. But in *each and every* case the downside variance would be beyond the limits of endurance of anyone I ever met... including the variance on the ones who won big lifetime.
No one is "tough" enough for Tough Craps.
Check it out yourself. Nobody plays like this.
At least he was talking about using the free odds. Sounds like you need to find the 100x table to me. He is talking about something that could actually happen to a really lucky guy. But I have yet to meet the person who can 'take' it ... I'm talking about the variance, the ups and downs. I've run wincraps simulations where you have 20x free odds or similar, and for a bunch of different players each experiencing a different RNG sequence over a putative lifetime. There are guys who win big and guys who get crucified. But in *each and every* case the downside variance would be beyond the limits of endurance of anyone I ever met... including the variance on the ones who won big lifetime.
No one is "tough" enough for Tough Craps.
Check it out yourself. Nobody plays like this.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 21st, 2021 at 5:32:13 AM
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He's pressing too much after his first win.
December 21st, 2021 at 8:48:20 AM
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I'd probably use this progression for the PL only. It's got triple odds max so I can get onto more tables with it. I'll get to over $12K with 13 winning points in a row. I have gotten to 8 winning points in a row several times on WiinCraps, which would get me past $2,500.
PL Odds
$50 $50
$50 $100
$50 $100
$50 $150
$75 $225
$100 $300
$150 $450
$200 $600
$250 $750
$300 $900
$400 $1,200
$500 $1,500
$500 $1,500
PL Odds
$50 $50
$50 $100
$50 $100
$50 $150
$75 $225
$100 $300
$150 $450
$200 $600
$250 $750
$300 $900
$400 $1,200
$500 $1,500
$500 $1,500
December 21st, 2021 at 10:19:11 AM
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I met Tom several times in Vegas. He had switched over to crapsforum for posting his craps wisdom. Always had a cigar.
Wonderful man. A real nomad. Would get in his car and drive all over the country to play craps and go to Florida and Arizona for spring training baseball. A huge Twins fan.
His favorite casino in Vegas was Main Street station. He would play marathon sessions. Also enjoyed bubble craps.
He was always on the hunt for free odds bet. A straight up game. 4 and 10.
Sadly, he passed away about 3 years ago.
Wonderful man. A real nomad. Would get in his car and drive all over the country to play craps and go to Florida and Arizona for spring training baseball. A huge Twins fan.
His favorite casino in Vegas was Main Street station. He would play marathon sessions. Also enjoyed bubble craps.
He was always on the hunt for free odds bet. A straight up game. 4 and 10.
Sadly, he passed away about 3 years ago.
December 21st, 2021 at 10:36:42 AM
permalink
I would pick him up from time to time at McCarran and drive him to Main Street Station. I also advised him to come up near me (Red Rock) and try Red Rock Casino. He did. After one session there…he got some nice comps. Free rooms for future stay, comped chips, comped food. He returned several times.
His last trip was planned for maybe 2016 IIRC, December. I was supposed to pick him up. He called me the day prior from the hospital advising me he wasn’t going to make his trip. He either had a heart attack or some heart related problem. Maybe early January, he passed away.
His last trip was planned for maybe 2016 IIRC, December. I was supposed to pick him up. He called me the day prior from the hospital advising me he wasn’t going to make his trip. He either had a heart attack or some heart related problem. Maybe early January, he passed away.
