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Wizard
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Wizard
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December 14th, 2021 at 8:48:10 AM permalink
My next betting system to analyze will be the 2-1-2. I have look at I think every web site that address it and there doesn't seem to be any consensus how it works. Many sites even contradict themselves and you see the same flawed example all over the place. That said, here is my best understand of it.

  1. Decide your unit size.
  2. Bet two units.
  3. If at any time you lose, the session is over. Walk away or start over.
  4. Otherwise, if at any time you tie, repeat the previous bet.
  5. Otherwise, if your first bet wins, then bet one unit the next hand.
  6. Otherwise, if any other bet wins, increase the next bet by one unit.
  7. Keep repeating until you lose a bet.


Many web sites say that if the second bet wins, you jump up to three units. For example, in this video. Note at the 2:15 point he bet $10 on the second hand, wins, and then jumps to $30. You might say it's because he split and won both hands, but there is a similar situation later in the video where he wins one unit only on the second hand and still jumps to three units.

Many other sites say if you lose the second bet (of one unit) you stay at one unit until you win and then start increasing your bet by one unit until you win. I also see the following flawed chart all over the place.



Notice the "return" column seems to be on a "for one" basis on a win, but a "to one" basis after a loss. If you add up the results, it should be a four-unit win, but their difference between return and total bet shows a one-unit win only. I don't know who made this flawed example first, but it's an illustrated example how most gambling sites just copy each other.

That said, I welcome anyone's understanding about how the 2-1-2 is really supposed to work. In particular, what happens after a win or loss on the second bet? If you win, do you increase your next bet to two units or three? If you lose, do you repeat a one-unit bet or reset to two units?

The question for the poll is what is your opinion of the 2-1-2 betting system?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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December 14th, 2021 at 9:16:47 AM permalink
How should you bet if the first half of a baccarat shoe breaks 30 losses to 10 wins?
Wizard
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OnceDear
December 14th, 2021 at 9:46:44 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

How should you bet if the first half of a baccarat shoe breaks 30 losses to 10 wins?
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Banker
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2021 at 1:40:37 PM permalink
I never can understand why you waste valuable time analyzing a silly system like this.
Wizard
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December 14th, 2021 at 2:47:42 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I never can understand why you waste valuable time analyzing a silly system like this.
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I don't like it either. I'm trying to spread the message that:
1. Betting systems don't work.
2. If you must use one anyway, at least use a free one.

When the general public asks me questions, I'd say 25% of the time they are about betting systems. I should probably spend at least 1% of my time on them.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Dieter
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December 14th, 2021 at 3:53:29 PM permalink
From a strictly video quality standpoint...

I think these videos would benefit from an opening with you on camera (in a non-logo shirt, unless you're also selling "merch").

I think the opening intro should include the disclaimers about their mathematical ineffectiveness, before people have an urge to watch something else. Maybe follow it up with "... but if you think they're fun, go ahead and bet your money how you like."

I think the explanation of the system itself would benefit from some visual aids. This can be a flowchart sketched on a whiteboard in real time for the camera, a screen capture of a whiteboard equivalent application like Paint, or a very simple Powerpoint deck. I think many viewers would benefit from simultaneous audio-visual presentation.

Starting and ending with you on camera will probably make the videos more approachable.

This is coming from someone who has watched the blackjack basic strategy video more than twice. It's 32 minutes of a spreadsheet screen capture. It's useful and informative, but the casual viewer may find it "a little dry".

As for content, if this is what the people are asking for and it's a slow news day otherwise, why not?

It's certainly better aligned with good principles than spending thousands chasing a handpay on whatever new slot theme is currently in vogue.
May the cards fall in your favor.
kewlj
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December 14th, 2021 at 4:06:44 PM permalink
OMG more betting systems? Wizard, I hate that you cover betting systems. You review of every betting system should end after your disclaimer; "I absolutely don't believe that betting systems overcome, or even reduce the house edge" in my opinion.

It is like a discussion about a person being able to fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff should start and end with "a person cannot fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff". Why go on to say the proper technique is to hold your arms close to your sides and to maximize flapping speed? Nothing else matters after "a person cannot fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff".

I feel like just YOU even discussing the topic would lead to lines at the cliffs because there would be so many people waiting to flap their arms and jump off. :/

Of course...just one man's opinion.
Wizard
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December 14th, 2021 at 7:44:29 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

OMG more betting systems? Wizard, I hate that you cover betting systems. You review of every betting system should end after your disclaimer; "I absolutely don't believe that betting systems overcome, or even reduce the house edge" in my opinion.

It is like a discussion about a person being able to fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff should start and end with "a person cannot fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff". Why go on to say the proper technique is to hold your arms close to your sides and to maximize flapping speed? Nothing else matters after "a person cannot fly by flapping his arms and jumping off a cliff".

I feel like just YOU even discussing the topic would lead to lines at the cliffs because there would be so many people waiting to flap their arms and jump off. :/

Of course...just one man's opinion.
link to original post



All that is well taken. I make disclaimers like that in every video. What I'm trying to say is that if you must jump off a building, at least don't pay anyone who says they can teach you to fly, but go knowing you can't fly and try to enjoy the freefall before you crash.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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December 14th, 2021 at 8:18:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ChumpChange

How should you bet if the first half of a baccarat shoe breaks 30 losses to 10 wins?
link to original post



Banker
link to original post



If you were betting $100/hand and lost $3,000 but won $950 playing Banker, or $1,000 playing Player, you'd be $50 better off playing Player.
Wizard
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December 14th, 2021 at 9:19:29 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you were betting $100/hand and lost $3,000 but won $950 playing Banker, or $1,000 playing Player, you'd be $50 better off playing Player.
link to original post



I have a different opinion.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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December 14th, 2021 at 9:41:04 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

How should you bet if the first half of a baccarat shoe breaks 30 losses to 10 wins?
link to original post



Well anyway, if playing Player, you could bet $100 until you're down $1,500, then raise your bets to $300. You'll lose another $4,500, but if all your wins are at the $300 level, you'll win back $3,000, and you'll be down a total of $3,000 instead of $2,000 if you were just flat betting $100.
Wizard
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December 16th, 2021 at 2:34:43 PM permalink
I just did a page on the 2-1-2 Betting System. As always, I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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December 16th, 2021 at 11:20:10 PM permalink
I tried to figure out the probabilities to 10 decimal places using your original 1 minus 6 decimal place figures to multiply by and could not get them all to add up to 1.000000, not even close. I'd get somewhere around 1.0001. I'll try to plug in different bet amounts later and figure the return amounts from the 10 digit probability figures.
Wizard
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December 17th, 2021 at 9:00:15 AM permalink
Here is my video on the 2-1-2, my shortest betting system video to date. I welcome all comments. Try not to be too harsh, Gordon. My self-esteem is still damaged from your last review.


Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDvDAl91hs
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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