Thread Rating:

charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 2424
August 26th, 2021 at 6:11:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Trip report 1. Went to my local: Crown Casino, Perth, Western Australia.

About 9 months ago. Can't remember the exact date. Wanted to trial my BJ basic strategy skills for the first time, using the Fibonacci Sequence. Handed over about $500 cash. Played for about an hour and half, and was up. Don't recall how much I was up. Then the table min went from $15 to $25. I switched tables to another $15 min.

Slowly started descending. After another couple of hours, all $500 given up! hmm..

Side note: The Crown Casino in Perth, Western Australia, is the only casino permitted to be licensed in Western Australia. Other Australian states have casinos, too. They are probably limited in number though, as politicians here want to limit gambling exposure in the community.

I went there a few years ago and the Crown, Perth is a pleasant casino, personally I played PGTiles there. I also went to a few casinos on the East/South side of Australia.

I'm assuming you're not counting and sticking to basic strategy (for their specific rules). In the long run the odds are in the favour of the casino (this is what -EV means) but It is perfectly reasonable that an hour long session could come out ahead. Using a betting system that increases the wager after losses will make it more likely a session comes out ahead but the downside is it increases the expected loss of losing sessions, in the long term it costs more than minimum flat betting.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 2000
August 26th, 2021 at 6:19:55 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Do you think that it's impossible that there may be rare gamblers beating the casinos legitimately, by using a system? If not, do you think they're gonna share that system with others?



I think that someone has to be the first to figure something out.
I think there are valid reasons to not disclose the details of a novel method or technique.

I think that if a person is trying to keep something secret, that person should generally seek to avoid publicity regarding both the results and the method.

It is possible for players to win.
It is possible for players to embellish or misreport their results.
May the cards fall in your favor.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 261
  • Posts: 8725
Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
August 26th, 2021 at 6:28:58 AM permalink
Wellbush, you seem to be a little different than some of the posters claiming systems.

You appear to be genuinely trying to find one.

I did it myself. They don't work.

Confession here. When my 10th grade science teacher said perpetual motion machines are impossible I set about making one. I designed and built one, using the machine shop in my high school (well, built one that doesn't work).

When you're young you believe you can conquer the world. I wasn't even very good at math, mechanical design, or physics and yet I was building a perpetual motion machine. (At age 52 I look back at my teenage self and laugh at my naivete)

When I first came onto WOV I was about forty years old and trying to beat gambling using the Fibonacci. The Wizard wrote somewhere that anyone trying to beat a negative-EV game using a system is no different than someone who believes they can build a perpetual motion machine.

It was an eye opener for me. I remembered my attempts at creating a perpetual motion machine.

I wandered into AP by accident but it has taught me a lot. What's possible and what's not.

You would be better off trying to manipulate the math so you can create an edge like AP's do rather than beat the math.

This forum is the best place to learn AP ideas. I say ideas because AP's don't like giving up trade secrets and can be cryptic about what they do but the concepts are here. From card counting to comp hustling.

That's how your time will be better spent.

Otherwise you will be like me at age 40 realizing how ridiculous you were in your youth.

Good luck.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 6:43:18 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I went there a few years ago and the Crown, Perth is a pleasant casino, personally I played PGTiles there. I also went to a few casinos on the East/South side of Australia.

I'm assuming you're not counting and sticking to basic strategy (for their specific rules). In the long run the odds are in the favour of the casino (this is what -EV means) but It is perfectly reasonable that an hour long session could come out ahead. Using a betting system that increases the wager after losses will make it more likely a session comes out ahead but the downside is it increases the expected loss of losing sessions, in the long term it costs more than minimum flat betting.

thanks for your contribution CP. The great thing I like about Crown in Perth is that like most of Australian society these days, it's smoke free and not a hint of it about. That's something I would be wary of experiencing in the US.

Not counting, no. Hey, there you go everyone! A certain Mr Tamburin informed me that counting would not work where there are shuffling machines swallowing cards after every hand. You know amazingly, I took his word for it!!! He's not, strictly speaking, even a mathematician!! There's hope for me afterall!!!

Yeah, basic strategy and sheepishly trialling some variations of progressive systems. Had some losses that burn one's fingers into being very cautious. A good thing.
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 6:48:57 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I think that someone has to be the first to figure something out.
I think there are valid reasons to not disclose the details of a novel method or technique.

I think that if a person is trying to keep something secret, that person should generally seek to avoid publicity regarding both the results and the method.

It is possible for players to win.
It is possible for players to embellish or misreport their results.

I agree with every line except secrecy to an extent. I hope naysayers are reading.
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14617
August 26th, 2021 at 6:58:57 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Naysayers generally use science, mathematics, and logic to address the believers.
I am aware of nothing which would keep believers from doing the same.

If a system works reliably, surely there is a way to measure its performance and understand its reason for success.



For many believers (not necessarily anyone in this thread) of various (and unnamed) things, believers tend not to use science, mathematics and logic to address things because they have no grasp of those three things or how those three things might apply. I tend to believe, if they did, then they would no longer be believers.

Anyway, I agree with Wellbush's request to hide this thread. You'll forgive me for being so bold, but I see no reason not to acquiesce to that request if that's what he wants.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14617
August 26th, 2021 at 7:05:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Agreed, but tying everything down to one simple formula isn't necessarily the answer. Do you think that it's impossible that there may be rare gamblers beating the casinos legitimately, by using a system? If not, do you think they're gonna share that system with others?

There are a lot of posters here who think anyone keeping a system to themselves, is outright wrong! I don't, and it's got nothing to do with not having something legitimate. Again, who's shortsighted when it comes to that?

Do you think MDawg's a fraud?

I'm enjoying our discussion Dieter 👍



Earlier posts have attacked windmills and now this one is attacking strawmen. There's nobody who ever said that, "Rare gamblers," may not be, at present, beating the casinos using a system. If there are enough people using systems, for a time, it becomes almost certain that more than zero of them are on the winning side at any given point. If you had 10,000 players all playing the Martingale, the number of trials (for each) required until they are all on the losing side AFTER a given trial is huge.

Why would you ask a question such as, "Do you think MDawg's a fraud?" I wasn't aware that this thread was about him.

Even if someone thought MDawg was a fraud, it's not as if that person could say so without violating Forum Rules. Thus, you are asking a question that a person is required to:

A.) Ignore---which could be interpreted as them answering, 'No,' even if they believe the answer is yes.

B.) Respond to with a, "No."

C.) Say, "Yes," (if that's what the respondent actually believes) and get suspended.

Please explain how asking that question is not trolling.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 676
August 26th, 2021 at 7:29:50 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Wellbush, you seem to be a little different than some of the posters claiming systems.

yeh, i know i'm an odd ball!

Quote: darkoz

You appear to be genuinely trying to find one.

I did it myself. They don't work.

Confession here. When my 10th grade science teacher said perpetual motion machines are impossible I set about making one. I designed and built one, using the machine shop in my high school (well, built one that doesn't work).

i heard a scotsman tell me that there isn't such a thing as perpetual motion. but he said the closest thing to it was a jew chasing a scotsman for his money.

Quote: darkoz

When you're young you believe you can conquer the world. I wasn't even very good at math, mechanical design, or physics and yet I was building a perpetual motion machine. (At age 52 I look back at my teenage self and laugh at my naivete)

i'm 57, but hey!

Quote: darkoz

When I first came onto WOV I was about forty years old and trying to beat gambling using the Fibonacci. The Wizard wrote somewhere that anyone trying to beat a negative-EV game using a system is no different than someone who believes they can build a perpetual motion machine.

It was an eye opener for me. I remembered my attempts at creating a perpetual motion machine.

I wandered into AP by accident but it has taught me a lot. What's possible and what's not.

You would be better off trying to manipulate the math so you can create an edge like AP's do rather than beat the math.

This forum is the best place to learn AP ideas. I say ideas because AP's don't like giving up trade secrets and can be cryptic about what they do but the concepts are here. From card counting to comp hustling.

That's how your time will be better spent.

Otherwise you will be like me at age 40 realizing how ridiculous you were in your youth.

Good luck.

thanks for your contribution DOz
Note: WOV considers all betting systems worthless. All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 2000
Thanks for this post from:
joedol
August 26th, 2021 at 7:39:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush


i heard a scotsman tell me that there isn't such a thing as perpetual motion. but he said the closest thing to it was a jew chasing a scotsman for his money.



This is either trolling, an insult, or hate speech.
I don't care to figure it out; it's clearly out of line.

7 days.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 19815
August 26th, 2021 at 8:06:43 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter


7 days.

You missed an opportunity to show him just how well Martingale works in the short term.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

  • Jump to: