Martingale is a winner IF
Thread Rating:
with that said id bet my immortal soul to win forever vs losing a thousand consecutive wagers in a line in a honest roulette wheel.
in theory to guess wrong/right a thousand times in a single line of a thousand wagers would never happen in honest roulette wheel in this 3D world we live in you would continue to double your wealth until death before seeing a human or machine guessing right/wrong 1k times in a row.
i believe wilson gambling book claimed 62 blacks was the longest run of colors.
if you had unlimited money and no limits it would work just people like you say it can't
its equivalent a monkey guessing right 10x in a row in a mensa test, just not going to happen in a 100 years
Quote: dawinnaatlozinsright because 500-1000 reds or blacks guess right consectively happpen every day dont they?
if you had unlimited money and no limits it would work just people like you say it can't
its equivalent a monkey guessing right 10x in a row in a mensa test, just not going to happen in a 100 years
If infinite players and infinite money, one infinitely loses and another infinitely wins.
The one who infinitely loses does so such that the result of all players, at any given time, reflects the house edge.
I'm not sure that gambling should get into metaphysics. Metaphysics is enough of a mess on its own.
Quote: Mission146If infinite players and infinite money, one infinitely loses and another infinitely wins.
The one who infinitely loses does so such that the result of all players, at any given time, reflects the house edge.
I'm not sure that gambling should get into metaphysics. Metaphysics is enough of a mess on its own.
If a player with infinite money loses infinitely, does he still have infinite money?
Quote: billryanIf a player with infinite money loses infinitely, does he still have infinite money?
See? This is the problem with metaphysical arguments! At what point is infinity no longer infinity? If infinity can cease to be infinity, then it was never infinite to begin with!
I'm going to need a dose of either Ibuprofen or Wittgenstein after this thread.
Quote: dawinnaatlozinsi just don't imagine or foreseeing 1000x over in a line guessing wrong, i can see maybe 40 maybe 62 in Wilsons gambling guide but 1000??? its on the same playing field a monkey typing a paragraph from shakespeare , it won't happen in this lifetime the odds are too far away
Keep hope alive. This may not be Shakespeare but some of it is almost cohesive.
Huh??? How would you double your wealth? You would need a wealth greater than every dollar ever printed.Quote: dawinnaatlozinsif is the biggest word in the dictionary if you could cover between 500-1000 wagers.
with that said id bet my immortal soul to win forever vs losing a thousand consecutive wagers in a line in a honest roulette wheel.
in theory to guess wrong/right a thousand times in a single line of a thousand wagers would never happen in honest roulette wheel in this 3D world we live in you would continue to double your wealth until death before seeing a human or machine guessing right/wrong 1k times in a row.
i believe wilson gambling book claimed 62 blacks was the longest run of colors.
I'll have whatever you are on.
So, start at a $1 min table. (yeah, sure)
Put some chewing gum in the 0 and 00 so it's a 50 50 game and ensure you have markers and a line of credit for 2^500 = $3.2733906079e+150 ( 3 with 150 zeros ) as your bankroll. You would be sure to win something. But you'd still only have a 50:50 chance of doubling your bankroll, as you proceed to live forever. You'd need to be immortal.
To whup the 62 blacks risk you'd just need to be sure to set aside 2^62 = $4.61168601843e+18
no sir the arguement is can you or me or a machine guess wrong 1000 times in a row in this lifetime?
short answer is no. maybe in a trillion years when eevery atom had decayed to the last partical in a honest roulette table played through the ages.
so in theory if the casino said no limit and they honored my unlimited credit i could win 5$ until my lfiespan is over. i could see myself losing on the 50th bet or 80th bet
but 500th? 1000th? no again honest odds not in this lifetime
Quote: dawinnaatlozinsthe arguement isn't the number specified 10 to the x power of n over y of bankroll
no sir the arguement is can you or me or a machine guess wrong 1000 times in a row in this lifetime?
short answer is no. maybe in a trillion years when eevery atom had decayed to the last partical in a honest roulette table played through the ages.
so in theory if the casino said no limit and they honored my unlimited credit i could win 5$ until my lfiespan is over. i could see myself losing on the 50th bet or 80th bet
but 500th? 1000th? no again honest odds not in this lifetime
I can think of a great many things that would be worse than death---and playing Roulette for eternity is pretty high on that list.
Playing Roulette for twelve hours is somewhere in the middle of the list.
However, he does make a small point...
The point that even most casinos set their table min/max to where you can get 6 to maybe 8 on a stretch Martingales in a row, validates even they know that 10+ losses in a row, while it will occur, is unlikely. They may let you Martingale 6-7 times all day until you do get that big losing streak. Even the casinos don't want to chance a guy able to Martingale 10+ times. Let alone 1,000!
Quote: Mission146I can think of a great many things that would be worse than death---and playing Roulette for eternity is pretty high on that list.
Playing Roulette for twelve hours is somewhere in the middle of the list.
I met a cab driver in Vegas who told he made $40-$60 every day playing roulette at the Wild Wild West. A week or so later, I was there playing what once was a good BJ game when I saw him come in. We talked and I asked if I could join him. We each bet a $1 on Red and won. He used an Oscars Grind , going between red-black and odd-even. If he bet red, he'd OG it until win and then switch to black. What followed was one of the most boring hours of my life. At the end, we were each up $7 and he was happy as a pig in bear shit. The dealer was as bored as we were, as we were the only players, and only smiled when I promised him I'd tip him half my winnings. I walked away with $3.
Quote: mwalz9The sentences the OP are using make this hard to read, and we all know the Martingale will not work because no one has infinite time and/or infinite money.
However, he does make a small point...
The point that even most casinos set their table min/max to where you can get 6 to maybe 8 on a stretch Martingales in a row, validates even they know that 10+ losses in a row, while it will occur, is unlikely. They may let you Martingale 6-7 times all day until you do get that big losing streak. Even the casinos don't want to chance a guy able to Martingale 10+ times. Let alone 1,000!
If a guy martingales for ten times and wins on the tenth try, what has the casino lost? Or if he lost 999 times and won on the 1,000th? What did he win? I suppose it would be kool collecting the comps one might get from betting insane amounts of money, but in the end all you win is your original bet.
Quote: billryanIf a guy martingales for ten times and wins on the tenth try, what has the casino lost
All the money they would have won had he been forced to stop at 6, 7 8 or 9!
And then, have yourself some time off.Quote: OnceDear
I'll have whatever you are on.
every betting system fails and the reason why because if it can fail once it will fail again all guess programs fall apart but how many times can guessing wrong 1000 steps fail you? again we live in a world with tabls mins/max and limited bankrolls so it doesn't work (but it could )
NO IT CAN'T!!!!!Quote: dawinnaatlozinsagain we live in a world with tabls mins/max and limited bankrolls so it doesn't work (but it could )
it would have to be far greater than hitting the powerball megamillion and keno all in 1 day yea its possible unlike growing spaghetti out of your head but will it happen?
no it won't so yes the MG would survive 1000th steps
Quote: dawinnaatlozinsyou mean to tell me there is a possibility of guess wrong 1000 steps in one line in a honest roulette game?
it would have to be far greater than hitting the powerball megamillion and keno all in 1 day yea its possible unlike growing spaghetti out of your head but will it happen?
no it won't so yes the MG would survive 1000th steps
What are the odds that a particular sperm cell in my fathers sack would grow up and post on this forum this very day? A typical male produces well over a billion of them in his life. Just posting is a one in many billion occurrence. If something can happen, it eventually will. That it hasn't happened yet just makes more likely that it will.
a massive earth shake hasn't happened in past 100 years in nyc that would level the field and i guess thats my arguement with a 100th step martingale
yea it could guess wrong but i would make money before it gets me and when it does happen id be in the grave but again very doubtful would stumble upon 1000 reds/blacks on a honest roulette wheel in a row
So what?Quote: dawinnaatlozinsbecause your saying theres a possibility a earthquake might happen in nyc and level the entire city? can it happen? certainly will it happen in my lifetime? no
a massive earth shake hasn't happened in past 100 years in nyc that would level the field and i guess thats my arguement with a 100th step martingale
yea it could guess wrong but i would make money before it gets me and when it does happen id be in the grave but again very doubtful would stumble upon 1000 reds/blacks on a honest roulette wheel in a row
You could reliably increase your massive bankroll b a fraction of a percent, maybe even a few percent, depending on how you define reliably..
My family lost our original summer house in the Hurricane of 1938. When they rebuilt, they moved it roughly half mile inland. From 1939 to 2010 or so, we had no issues with storm flooding. In 2011, Hurricane Irene hits and water comes right up to my house. They say it is a once in a lifetime event. 2012 brings us Superstorm Sandy and we get flooded. The next year, two thunderstorms collide virtually on top of us and we get ten inches of rain in a half hour or some insane total. Rafts rescued motorists on the parkways while others sat on their cars roofs waiting for help.
Yea. Recently I hit a golf ball. It landed on a patch of grass no bigger than a golf ball. What were the chances of that miracle. I'm not even a good golfer.Quote: billryanWhat are the odds that a particular sperm cell in my fathers sack would grow up and post on this forum this very day? A typical male produces well over a billion of them in his life. Just posting is a one in many billion occurrence. If something can happen, it eventually will. That is happened yet just makes more likely that it will.
PS
The house at the end of my street has been struck by lightning twice within 3 years. Major damage each time.
Wow. You missed the sand trap! What are the odds of THAT?!!Quote: OnceDearYea. Recently I hit a golf ball. It landed on a patch of grass no bigger than a golf ball. What were the chances of that miracle. I'm not even a good golfer.
But seriously, 1,000 losses in a row? The odds of that are extremely remote. Like, if you made thousands of bets per hour, you’d go many (thousands?) of lifetimes before you hit 1,000 losses. But even with that near zero possibility, I wouldn’t bet on it.
But as others have said, running a Martingale, long before you get to 1,000 losses, hell, even before you get to double digit losses, you’d run out of bankroll and/or hit the max bet.
Quote: DJTeddyBearWow. You missed the sand trap! What are the odds of THAT?!!
But seriously, 1,000 losses in a row? The odds of that are extremely remote. Like, if you made thousands of bets per hour, you’d go many (thousands?) of lifetimes before you hit 1,000 losses. But even with that near zero possibility, I wouldn’t bet on it.
But as others have said, running a Martingale, long before you get to 1,000 losses, hell, even before you get to double digit losses, you’d run out of bankroll and/or hit the max bet.
Not if you had an infinite bankroll and nothing else to do with it. I'd use at least some of it to buy the Strat so when I'm taking a break from my infinite roulette game I could drop mismatched items off the top and see which one hits first.
Quote: billryanNot if you had an infinite bankroll and nothing else to do with it.
If you had an infinite bankroll, nobody would book your action. There would also be better plays.
Quote: DieterIf you had an infinite bankroll, nobody would book your action. There would also be better plays.
That's how I got my infinite bankroll!
Quote: DeMangoHow did we lose Mission?
He asked to be suspended over a political post.
YES, if one assumes there is an infinite amount of time and money.Quote: dawinnaatlozinsyou mean to tell me there is a possibility of guess wrong 1000 steps in one line in a honest roulette game?
you show me one record of a roulette bar showing 1000 reds in a row or blacks and i'll shut up
until then i win =)
show me proof you or anyone has the bankroll and time to even Marty a 100 times and ill shut up, until then, I winQuote: dawinnaatlozinsdefine infinite ? i could always always tack on another 0, so real world it wouldn't be infinite 10 vs 10........... that trails on is not infinite so id probably dig into a huge amount of bankroll maybe 100mil to win 5$? id probably win 5$ every 30seconds on the average roulette spin and have to wait maybe 20minutes to pass through the bullcrap 10 or 30 rows of black or reds but after that back to winning streak babby
you show me one record of a roulette bar showing 1000 reds in a row or blacks and i'll shut up
until then i win =)
Check and mate axel
notice i said X and not infinite =P
Quote: dawinnaatlozinshe kinda mis-read or didnt read correctly 1st page, i said if the casinos allowed unlimited beting and i had x amount of money i win forever
Check and mate axel
notice i said X and not infinite =P
If you had the amount to cover 1,000 Marty’s, you wouldn’t need to gamble. You would own all the casinos if you wanted.
Assuming you could find a $1 table with no maximum, there is not enough money in the world to cover a measly 37 47 Marty's.Quote: unJonIf you had the amount to cover 1,000 Marty’s, you wouldn’t need to gamble. You would own all the casinos if you wanted.
Edited to make the math right. Thanks, DJTB!
But simply martingale is indeed a winner, when it wins, but not when you bust out. Simply declaring to won't bust out doesn't make it so.
All the talk about massive bankroll and unlimited play time is all moot.. if you have enough bankroll to withstand a once in X lifetimes event, you will not make a significant profit. Relative to that bankroll.
I don’t think that’s quite right. After 45 doubles, you’re up to $35Trillion. The US national debt is $28Trillion.Quote: JoemanAssuming you could find a $1 table with no maximum, there is not enough money in the world to cover a measly 37 Marty's.
But what’s a couple bucks between friends? 🤪
Quote: dawinnaatlozinshe kinda mis-read or didnt read correctly 1st page, i said if the casinos allowed unlimited beting and i had x amount of money i win forever
Check and mate axel
notice i said X and not infinite =P
Since you claim you can win every time (or does "I win forever" mean something else?), this means that there must be a maximum number of times, say, red can come up in consecutive spins.
Looks like somebody needs to look at my Guaranteed Surefire Can't Miss System:
1. Determine the maximum number of times, say, red can come up in consecutive spins.
2. Wait until red comes up that many times in a row.
3. Bet everything you own on black (well, and green).
4. Did red come up again? Don't blame me; you're the one that claimed that red couldn't come up that many times in a row.
I think I understand your initial claim - if you have enough bankroll, you "should" be able to win every time. You are not the first person to make the claim.
Nobody really challenges this claim; however, there are two things you need to consider.
First, the size of the bankroll. The same color coming up 64 times in a row is very possible, and even if you start with a $1 bet, the 65th bet would have to be over $18 quintillion. Even with a run of 30, the 31st bet is 1,073,741,824 times the original bet.
Second, the maximum bet the casino will take. There is at least one thread on this forum that discusses why there is a maximum bet in the first place, and one claim (which is also what John Scarne claims in one of his books) is that it is to make it easier to make a Martingale bust.
You're right! It should have been 47 not 37 doubles to get over the $90T referenced in the article. I think my calculator must have run out of zeros!Quote: DJTeddyBearI don’t think that’s quite right. After 45 doubles, you’re up to $35Trillion. The US national debt is $28Trillion.Quote: JoemanAssuming you could find a $1 table with no maximum, there is not enough money in the world to cover a measly 37 Marty's.
But what’s a couple bucks between friends? 🤪
As a side note, it's kind of staggering to think that the US government is in debt to the tune of almost 1/3 of the all money in the entire world.
Here is the problem with all the other "moot points" if, in theory, it's a winning system or +ev given a massive bankroll and unlimited playtime, then they will also claim that it's a working system under less optimal conditions.Quote: OnceDearI don't know why the OP posted this,
But simply martingale is indeed a winner, when it wins, but not when you bust out. Simply declaring to won't bust out doesn't make it so.
All the talk about massive bankroll and unlimited play time is all moot.. if you have enough bankroll to withstand a once in X lifetimes event, you will not make a significant profit. Relative to that bankroll.
Whatever the case, I think you need to check under some bridges, there's no telling what you might find.
DAWINNAATLOZINS has left the building. Sorry it took so long.Quote: AxelWolfHere is the problem with all the other "moot points" if, in theory, it's a winning system or +ev given a massive bankroll and unlimited playtime, then they will also claim that it's a working system under less optimal conditions.
Whatever the case, I think you need to check under some bridges, there's no telling what you might find.
Oh, no! I was just about to close a loan for infinity dollars, and then take the proceeds to my local, which, btw, has no maximum limits, and play forever! Thanks for ruining my dream, OD! :PQuote: OnceDearDAWINNAATLOZINS has left the building. Sorry it took so long.
