Doubling up a $5 bet to $1 million

Making this post to talk about Michael Bluejay's idea of doubling up a $5 bet to $1 million by YOLOing all your winnings for 18 hands or spins in a row. I messaged Wizard about this and he was ok with this thread. Although if this is in the wrong forum, mods please move it to appropriate forum. I placed it in here because I think it's topical and I wanted as much exposure to the very respected advantage players that post here, and Michael Bluejay himself. I want to know your opinion on this mathematical feat.

So the backstory on this is that the last time I was at Harrahs in Cherokee NC, I walked by a low limit baccarat table where I saw the most incredible streak I've seen in person so far. 19 Player wins in a row. It was the end of the shoe so I wasn't able to exploit it, but we know mathematically how crazy of a streak that was. Upon getting back home and doing some research, I came across Michael's website that shows the math behind such a streak. Turns out if I had be extremely ballsy and lucky, this pocket of ev+ variance would have made me a millionaire(well... minus table limits...)

I have a honeymoon planned for a few months from now so having talked it over with my soon to wedded be, we have decided to try this challenge and see if we can get 15+ streak in either craps, baccarat, or roulette. Bankroll is $1000, and we're doing either 100 $10 buy-ins, 50 $20 buy-ins, or 200 $5 buy-ins depending on our mood. The idea behind having so many buy-ins for this challenge is that our chances of spiking a large streak are more likely to happen, just from the variance of running this experiment so many times over 4 days we're at Harrahs. One major thing I plan on doing is not gambling this entire amount at the same time. So breaking the 'streak' up in physical play time. Say YOLOing up to the 8 streak part, walking away for some low limit table or UTH, and then coming back to continue later in the day or next day.

So my question to all of you pros and very smart amateurs is... what do you think I should play to maximize the best odds? Does anyone think I'll be able to hit the 13+ streak part and walk away with over $40,000 from getting cold feet to continue the streak? Is this the silliest idea on the web? What do people think of the concept behind $5 to a millionaire?

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Making this post to talk about Michael Bluejay's $5 to $1,000,000 challenge via YOLOing all your winnings for 18 hands or spins in a row.

First post! Really?

Quote: DeMango

First post! Really?

Haha hey DeMango! Sorry about that I lost a giant post so I was retyping everything up, please bare with me for a minute or two and I'd love to hear your ideas about this challenge. I'm a *very* long time lurker(for the past year and half) but finally decided to delurk when I learned that I would be honeymooning at a casino, and that we had the funds to have a nice long gamble session.

So far I've won $1300 playing table UTH following Wizard's advanced strategy which I practiced a bunch a head of time. Then last time I hit a royal flush playing quarters following proper JoB strategy thanks to Wizard's math and play skills.

Since this is easily the best math-based gambling forum on the planet, I'd love to hear the feedback from the pro AP players and just generally from everyone on the feasibility of this idea. Obviously I'm going to have to pray for and hit a a positive variance pocket to streak 13+ times in a row. I also need the financial guts to keep betting it all when I have more than a year's salary for myself and my soon to be wife in front of me in purple and black chips. Easy to say it, hard to pull that trigger.

Well 18 yo's in a row only happened once, so good luck with that!

Most likely scenario.

You will lose your money never hitting the streak HOWEVER more frustrating will.be when you glance over at the table across the room and see a streak of 18 reds in a row.

If only you had played at that table you would be a millionaire.

And then you will be going home broke and psychologically scarred as to how a simple choice of seating ruined all your plans.

Well what would you do in my position darkoz? Is there a better mathematical way to pull this off or something similar?

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Well what would you do in my position darkoz? Is there a better mathematical way to pull this off or something similar?

It's just gambling. You aren't using an edge. Just hoping you get lucky and catch a streak.

Be prepared to lose the $1000 and hope for the best

In my lifetime the best run I ever experienced was side by side Player runs of over twenty each, with just one intervening Bank hand. Wizard and I talked about that shoe. I had a certain goal that trip of a quarter million, and I hit that run for what was the table limit at that time per hand after the first two Players, but let off on the gas to a ridiculous approximately just some hundreds per a hand until it ended. I did walk with well over a quarter million but often think about how if only I hadn’t eased off…. You see that particular trip I had declared to anyone who would listen that I was going to get over a quarter million, and that number was so ingrained in my mind that once I surpassed it, I didn’t care and reverted to playing very small.

So, that just goes to show that even in a situation where presented with a run that could have cleared well over a half million in that run alone, I didn’t take all that the run presented.

You talk about runs of 15. I’ve been continuously in Vegas now for over four months, and played about 90 sessions. That isn’t a whole lot of sessions, but I’ve experienced at least a few Bank or Player runs of 15-16, many of 11-13, and many many of around 9. I have had numerous sessions where I have won six figures, but the interesting thing is, that while yes, most of them had runs in them, not all of them did. In other words, sometimes runs lead to big winnings and sometimes they don’t.

I mean – let me be clear – runs do not lead to LOSING, at least never with me. But neither do they lead always to massive wins.

I am a guy who – give me any kind of run of more than 5 and I will always benefit, but given that I press into runs and don’t suddenly jump the bet, if I start a run with only a few hundred dollars then even if it is say, 10 long, I’m not going to make a mint on it.

But, sometimes, I will start a run with a few thousand, and then, pressing just a thousand a hand, yes, I’ll make good money.

I have pretty much realized that unless I enter a shoe with a do or die attitude AND experience a run, that I am not going to empty the rack, and for all intensive purposes, that sort of combination rarely happens. Put it this way, you’d have to dump a lot of table limit bets before you finally cleared that half million, if your entire strategy were based on waiting for a 13 Bank or Player run.

Thank you for your input MDawg. As one of the more entertaining people that post here, I do appreciate your knowledge and perspective on this challenge. Have you ever talked about the specifics of how you tend to push for mini streaks? From your reports it sounds like you kind of wait out a lot of hands until a shoe gets low and use that information to try and guess how the end of a shoe will run? I know Wizard's under your little NDA thing, but have you ever thought about talking more about how you figure out these things?

Also yeah I plan on coloring up a bunch and moving to the high limit baccarat or roulette/craps tables at Harrahs Cherokee. It's going to feel really weird to do, but I'm trying to psyche myself up for the experience of it. I'm also contemplating throwing some of these potential winnings at their electronic UTH machine. That thing seems really exploitable last time I was there(won $560 off of $25 bet after 2 hours of play, extremely good Rate of Return.) Progressive for it is up to $50,000, which would be enough for a down payment on a house we've been looking at. Life changing money(and yes I know to pay the taxes on it.)

Probably specifics of when I've pressed into a streak should be reserved for discussion in my Adventures thread.
Here was the actual Wizard witnessed session, so you may quote it in that thread if you like:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/95/#post803691

And here was the Session verification:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/95/#post803695

In that session there was an 8 Player run and I hit every single hand of it. Not some, not most, all.

But in general I'm just saying that waiting for streaks is one thing, but hoping further that you'll hit the streak for table max or anywhere close, is mostly just a pipe dream. If I hit a streak starting with yellow chips and it goes on from there for a while, I am pretty happy. The few times I've hit a streak for table max I've rarely if ever kept it up for the entire streak.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Bankroll is $1000, and we're doing either 100 $10 buy-ins, 50 $20 buy-ins, or 200 $5 buy-ins depending on our mood. The idea behind having so many buy-ins for this challenge is that our chances of spiking a large streak are more likely to happen, just from the variance of running this experiment so many times over 4 days we're at Harrahs. One major thing I plan on doing is not gambling this entire amount at the same time. So breaking the 'streak' up in physical play time. Say YOLOing up to the 8 streak part, walking away for some low limit table or UTH, and then coming back to continue later in the day or next day.

Since you aspire to put $1000 at risk, it's pretty academic whether it's 1 buy in and starting wager of $1000 or 200 starting wagers of $5.

Quote:

So my question to all of you pros and very smart amateurs is... what do you think I should play to maximize the best odds? Does anyone think I'll be able to hit the 13+ streak part and walk away with over $40,000 from getting cold feet to continue the streak? Is this the silliest idea on the web? What do people think of the concept behind $5 to a millionaire?

Whether you watch for multiple small streaks or whatever, totally irrelevant: Ultimately you are wagering $1000 with a target of $1000000 and Oncedear's rule of thumb tells us that with a zero house edge game, your probability of success is...
1000/1000000 = 0.1%
With the house edge of any game, your probability will be way less.

Of course, if you are MDawg or his protege MarcusClark66, or one of his other disciples, then you cannot fail.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Well what would you do in my position darkoz? Is there a better mathematical way to pull this off or something similar?

You'd have a much MUCH better chance of success if you take $16,000,000 to the table and playing a simple martingale. Or anything really, till you are $1m ahead or broke. Bet as big as you can to avoid wagering into the house edge multiple times.



ps. I'm not allowed to call you a liar when you say you are a new member/long time lurker. But you know that.

What about table maximums?

Starting with a $15 minimum bet on pass at craps here are the wins:

1. 15
2. 30
3. 60
4. 120
5. 240
6. 480
7. 960
8. 1920
9. 3840
10. 5000 max bet pays 5000
11. 5000 pays 5000
12. 5000 pays 5000
13. 5000 pays 5000
14. 5000 pays 5000
15. 5000 pays 5000
16. 5000 pays 5000
17. 5000 pays 5000
18. 5000 pays 5000

Total wins 52,655

How do you get a million?

Quote: ChallengedMilly

I'm a *very* long time lurker(for the past year and half) but finally decided to delurk when I learned that I would be honeymooning at a casino, and that we had the funds to have a nice long gamble session.

And 1 day before you created this User Id, we had a new user 100000Challenge that joined from the exact same vpn block.

So. Was the 100000Challenge user account meant to be 1000000Challenge and that's why you rejoined with this one?

The truth will set you free.

I'm closing and hiding this thread until you PM me with your answer.

Quote: AlanMendelson

What about table maximums?

See my article on how to win a million dollars on a table game.

The OP PM'd me to alert me to this thread and invite me to comment. I see nothing worth commenting on further (OnceDear's replies are spot on, as usual). Everything else I have to say on the subject is already covered in my article.

Michael I sent you a reply. Publicly I do apologise I must have come across a certain way that wasn't intended. I greatly admire your math work on the challenge, and it happened to be the first thing I found upon googling from my last trip where I saw that 19 in a row Player win in baccarat. I think it's an amazing idea and that's why I'm going to attempt it the best that I can and give a play by play on it if anything fun happens(ie I actually pull it off). I've already spoken to OnceDear and Wizard and will send them any info they require to confirm it if I do manage it. Hopefully I can repair any damage I caused with an apology. Much respect to everyone here, and I wouldn't even be attempting this without the math behind it.

My intentions were for this to be a fun interesting thing and a good example of the math involved in a real world experimental setting. I've always played strictly to the best play methods in JOB/Ducks and UTH, so this is a bit of a departure for me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

What about table maximums?
How do you get a million?

So I called ahead today and spoke to someone in CS at Harrahs. Right now they do have both craps and baccarat with table max $50,000 in VIP area. So it does appear the ability right now at this particular trip to get to a million isn't quite possible. As I said, even having $40,000 in front of me would likely get me to quit while I was ahead, but still at least we know we can "safely" double up to a $100,000 win if so if I can actually get up the courage to place that kind of a bet. I imagine even hitting the $10,000 mark will be enough for my new wife to yank my ass out of the casino in a heartbeat.

Also as an aside, we all know about Patricia Demauro and others that have gone on to perform insanely long and mathematically rare streaks in Craps and other games. So we know every once in a blue moon weird things can happen at a casino.

So another two ideas that I had on this would be playing to my strengths with UTH and VP(specifically JOB and Ducks) for the first part of this experiment until I hit a max payout wall, because hitting a large hand in either game would earn me more than 1:1 on my money? UTH would allow me to essentially have a valve to throw away a bad hand for half the amount I can wager on the next hand. VP allows for flushes, straights, houses, etc. The odds of me hitting another royal flush this time are obviously pretty incredibly unlikely but it would still be a chance(1 in 40,000) at it.

Obviously once I hit the maximum I'd have to switch to the VIP area and a new game(craps or bac) but would this actually be a bit more logical, even if we're taking some 1-4% increase in busting by playing a slightly worse odds game?

The casinos would welcome you.

Be sure to put your funds 'on deposit' first.

Have an eye opening experience!

Marcus Clark
Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66
Professional Casino Security Expert
Certified Company Firearms Instructor
Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications
Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess
Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club
Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members
Baccarat Winning Session Record: 7 out of 7 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session

Short report on this challenge: I cashed out at slightly less than $2500 and had a 9 hits in a row. Downside it took about $600 to hit that much and I lost at least three times that I counted at the $300-600 dollar range that I almost gave up. Didn't have the heart to keep pushing past 9 hits, considering that money will more than pay for this trip.

So overall... it's still an interesting theoretical possibility with someone that could stomach the huge swings that are absolutely going to happen. It's one of those "if you could only make one type of bet for the rest of your gambling career" kind of a thing. I still believe there's something to this idea.

Side note: Hit the craps tables and had a 33 roll, 13 roll, 12 roll, and 11 roll and made some more money as well betting across the board. Looking at Wiz's roll chart a 33 roll is pretty darn rare, just a shame i didn't bet even more than I did.

I still cringe at your calling it a "challenge" when it's not, and when that will make it easily confused with my actual Betting System Challenge. The double-up idea isn't a challenge (I'm not challenging anyone to try it), it's just an idea.

I'm glad you were able to come out ahead. I tried it once and bailed at around $1280 or $2560, I forget which. Even if someone had the nerves of steel to go beyond that, when they lost one of the next couple of rounds, which would be likely, the regret would be palpable.

Well challenge is the best word that matched what I was trying to do / convey, again all apologizes, I highly respect you and Wizard. For hopefully obvious reasons the millionaire... um, idea? is much different than you putting up money to prove the betting system dorks wrong. Betting systems just cannot work currently with the games that the casinos offer. Theoretically sportsbooks could be cracked by someone with a trained AI system that can 51%+ of the time accurately engage in both correct bets, and abusing arbitrage concept to make tens of millions.

I think your millionaire idea has some kind of weird merit though, within a tight pocket of positive variance, and the balls of steel to actually go the full length(and being in vegas / macau where a casino will allow you to max out your bets and payouts.) It was extremely fun playing so unlike how I normally play. A bit unnerving the first time I lost $600 in one yolo 'event'. I can also see why the Martingale obsessed gamblers can get intoxicated with the bigger wins that sometimes happen in such a pocket of good variance. It's that "you're so desperate that you drop your entire paycheck on black and it actually comes up black" kind of deal. I know a couple of the CasinoQuest dealers on youtube have talked about doing such things when they had financial troubles(of course one then wonders why they keep getting into financial troubles...)